TTP Jumps Notes: 09/11/16 (complete)

Results Update

Summary 

Running Total End Week  6

General Race Types:31/186,60 places = +49.6 points

Micro Angles: 17/95,30 places = +26.5 points

Total including multiple qualifiers: 48/281, 90 places = +76.1 points

Total 1x  1 point only : 44/248, 77 places = +72.6 points

Bonus Stats: 1/12,2 p = -8

 

Full Results… Day by Day/Track By Track Breakdown HERE>>>

 

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Qualifiers + Notes for now.

 

AYR 

NOTE: if this turns Heavy then N Richards would have a few qualifiers. It is good to soft with 5-10m rain expected during racing,so unlikely it hits heavy. If it does it will be during racing and it would be unfair to count those in results,however well they do.

 

2.50

Bertalus (micro class) UP 12/1

NOTE: Alexander 1/14,2 places last 14 days. returns to hurdles after a couple of shockers over fences. Tom Scu gets the leg up for the first time for this trainer. Horse unexposed, 1/6 over hurdles. CD winner and the more rain the better it seems.

Marlee Massie (micro class) 2nd 9/2>9/1 (could come on for that,hopefully qualify here NTO and win!)

NOTE: Alexander again as above. Suspect the jockey had the choice between these two. Trainer is 8/65,14 places handicap hurdlers 60+ days off. The horse has never had this long off before from what I can see, but he is 1/3,2 places over hurdles off breaks of 60+ days. This is a fair bit longer though. Trainer is 4/49,8 places all handicap hurdle races where horse returning 121-365 days off.

 

3.20

Buffalo Ballet (micro class) UP

NOTE: Alexander again. Horse has clearly had problems and returns here after a lengthy break, but he is lightly raced for his age. trainer 1/15,3 places with handicappers returning more than 365 days off. Market may help.

 

3.55

Queen of Avolon (NHF) UP 12/1>33/1

NOTE: Alexander again. Looks to be enough speed in pedigree and related to bumper winners it seems. Every horse either hasn’t started or is returning after lengthy breaks and again the market may give some guidance. His NHF stats here, 3/16,6 places.. +29 SP… suggesting the odd big priced one goes in.

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BANGOR 

12.50

Kilronan Castle DNQ 3rd 10/1>6/1 (micro going ONLY OF SOFT- could well turn soft before racing,rain now expected through night/morning on watered ground)

NOTE: could well be soft in the morning, we shall see. Some rain forecast but it may not be worse that good to soft. McCain 3/24,9 places last 14 days, going well enough – and his looked the winner at Sedgefield for all of the finishing straight bar after the last. Horse has an unexposed profile, last run a bit poor. Possibly needed it but even so, well beaten.

 

1.50

Sego Success (all hncps+hncp c+ micro TJC) 3rd 8/1

Ziga Boy (all hncp+hncp c) UP

NOTE: Will deal with both of King’s together… they are going ok, 4/28,12 places last 14 days. King is 19/129,44 places with handicap chasers 60+ days off, 2/6,3 places at track with such runners. SS – it looks like he has needed the run the last two seasons, now 0/4,0 places 60+ days off. But King can ready them. Ziga Boy is 0/3,0 places 60+ days also.

Beg To Differ (hncp c + micro distance) UP

Spookydooky (hncp c + micro distance) UP

NOTE: Well Jonjo just gets colder I think, 0/25,5 places last 14 days, 5/68,13 places last 30 days. Jonjo can ready them, 35/246,68 places handicap chases 60+ days off. 3/15,7 places at the track. Beg To Differ is unexposed, only run once after break 60+ days. Sookydooky 0/5,1 places after 60 or more days off.

 

3.00

Rene’s Girl (all hncp) UP

NOTE: Skelton in form, 7/28,11 places last 14 days. 22/109,44 places with handicap hurdlers 60+ days off- he can ready them if needs be. Horse is lightly races and still unexposed enough. Could be more to come.

Messire Des Obeaux (all hncp) WON 6/4

NOTE: same King form stats as above. He can ready them after a break. Step up in trip could be what is required to unlock further improvement.

Clondaw Kaempfer DNQ (micro going ONLY IF SOFT, possible)

NOTE: McCain stats as above also. 2/22,4 places handicap hurdlers returning here 60+ days off.

 

EXETER

1.00

Kalifourchon (hncp h) UP

Gary Charm (hncp h) UP

NOTE: Pipe still a bit hit and miss, 3/27,7 places last 14 days, would have been only 2 had Zarkandar not fallen at the last at Aintree. Top one is 4/11 in handicap hurdles, poor run LTO. Decent enough ‘summer form’. Gary Charm comes here after a couple of failed chases, would probably appreciated some rain given all french form in a bog.

 

1.30

Umberto D’Olivate (all hncp+hncp c) WON 5/1

Castarnie (all hncp + hncp c) NR

NOTE: Walford 0/4,0 places last 14 days. Also only 4/51,12 places in handicaps with horses that have had 60+ days off,last 5 years. 1/21 in handicap chases. 0/10,3 places track with such handicappers. UDO was a 2l 3rd over CD last November off OR 124, races off 108 here. Castarnie is unexposed in this sphere, now 0/4,1 place 60+ days all runs.

 

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My view:

Well it is hard to rule out too many based on their profiles really and given the time some have had off the track the market may guide. I have looked at the 1.50 as a ‘tipping’ race on the free post. I personally struggle to have anything from the Jonjo yard,and even more so after a break, at the moment and I won’t be personally be backing those two – albeit they have profiles that would give them a chance and one may leave me reeling. The King pair are interesting and the market may guide. Sego usually comes on for the run. Ziga Boy looks most interesting from the qualifiers to me and if he was ready to go could run a decent race.

Not much more to add to that today.

Good luck with any bets you place today.

Josh

 

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