For anyone interested… TPP FullResults Update End Week 6 HERE>>
Total including multiple qualifiers: 13/70,20 places = +14.8
Total 1x 1 point only : 13/62,20 places = +22.8
Running Total End Week 6
Total including multiple qualifiers: 48/281, 90 places = +76.1 points
Total 1x 1 point only : 44/248, 77 places = +72.6 points
Bonus Stats: 1/12,2 p = -8
VALADOM – 1 point win – 9/1 | 8/1 (both generally available) WON 9/1*
*made all, jumped well, fit,galloped,job done...
(he will be all in this race)
Just some general notes on HRB that I had a flick through…
I have had a look at the HRB standard ratings- Handicap Chases / Class 2 / 8-16 runners /2013-
Of note maybe.. The top 4 in their ratings win 50% of races in those criteria above…the top 4 rated in this are Ballykan / Perfect Candidate / Valadom / Cloudy Too
Those rated 14 or lower are: 0/50,4 places… Not good news for Smooth Stepper who is bottom rated here, no. 14 of 14.
Those that were rated Top 4 LTO win 46% of races. Those ‘qualifiers’ today include Perfect Candidate / Ballykan/ Valadom / Gallery Exhibition.
Don’t ask me how they calculate these ratings, I don’t know.
Onto the 1.50 and possibly a few pointers…there are some 10 year trends but the numbers are small so some caution advised but of interest maybe…
- ran over hurdles LTO: 4/13,5 places
- OR 136 or higher: 0/18,2 places (some caution as small numbers and top weights have won this, i assume off 135 or lower, which suggests the quality of this race is getting better)
- Trainers of interest: Alan King 2/5,3 places / Jonjo O’Neill 0/7,0 places
This bold front runner looks to have plenty going for him and I liked the fact that he was guaranteed to be fit here where I am literally guessing over most of the others – a lot of these don’t have good records after a break but many of the trainers can ready a horse- so a bit of guesswork really as to who is here to run their race- the market may help with that.
Anyway this one looks to have had a prep run LTO- it feels like this has been the target, and the good record of those that ran over hurdles LTO boosts confidence, as does his place in the HRB ratings as above. And for what ‘trends’ there are, he is in the section of the OR ratings.
He was really getting the hang of the chasing game at the back end of last season/early weeks of the new season. That win at Uttoexter was decent and he had plenty in behind that day who have ran well since. Indeed it has produced 7 winners including the 5 who followed him home- Indian Stream (won decent race the other day), Belmount, Cork Citizen, Set List,Beeves – bar Indian Stream that lot may not be work beaters or ‘winter horses’ but that is decent form at least and shows he was beating decent enough animals who would go on to show more- rather than bashing up an exposed bunch. He is lightly raced over here, and after running in france for a little while, seems to have found his trip now. That run at Kempton before that was ok also. As were a couple of runs at Cheltenham. The jockeys claim will help – and he is riding out of his skin at the moment and has a very good record in C2 chases.
The going… well, I am ok as long as it is not worse that soft. He ran well at Leicester on soft where it was probably the distance that beat him more than the going. He looks like a decent enough stayer. Good/Good to Soft is perfect, and 9s allows a chance to be taken if it goes soft. It shouldn’t turn heavy but you never know! That may do for him.
He will also be were I like all chasers to be ideally, and that is in the front 3rd. I suspect he will try and make all here and if he gets into a rhythm, at his pace, and with a run under his belt, he could take a lot of pegging back. I doubt the handicapper has got to him yet and he is one of the best jumpers in this field from recall.
So, at the prices, given all of that, I think he has to be a bet here. Just a question of whether I find anything else to join him but I will wait until some more certainty on the going for that. And I want to ponder a bit more. This one stands out, and I may just stick with him.
I am just going to stick with him for this race. They have had plenty of rain but it is only now Good to Soft apparently,with likelihood it may go a tad softer than that. I was struggling to make a case for much else, many of whom have fitness questions. Smooth Stepper would have a chance and is unexposed,he looks the most interesting – but he was well stuffed the last twice when last seen and I don’t know how good he is- I have been put off a bit by the fact he is bottom rated in this also,with HRB ratings,and it is usually hard,but not impossible, for such types to win. There is a bit of money around and this could be his season. But, the selection has better chase form in the book and has had a run. Ziga Boy would be of some interest if there was some money as it may suggest he is fit- if this has been a target then he could go very well. But, he has needed the run the last two years. If he doesn’t need it here, he could go well.
I will leave it there for tips today.
K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)
1.50 Bang – Goodtoknow DNQ UP 201/1
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– live test
1.00 Exet – Kalifourchon (Pipe dist move) UP
3.00 Bang- Tornado In Milan 2nd 20/1 (Williams,60+ days)
12.50 Bang – Kilronan Castle 3rd 10/1>6/1(2nd run after break)
1.40 Ayr- Bernardeli (top weights) UP
1.50 Bang – Call Me Vic (T George) UP
That will do for today. Good luck with any bets.