FREE DAILY POST: 09/11/16 (COMPLETE)

For anyone interested… TPP FullResults Update End Week 6 HERE>> 

Brief Summary

Week 6

Total including multiple qualifiers: 13/70,20 places = +14.8

Total 1x 1 point only : 13/62,20 places = +22.8

Running Total End Week 6

Total including multiple qualifiers: 48/281, 90 places = +76.1 points

Total 1x 1 point only : 44/248, 77 places = +72.6 points

Bonus Stats: 1/12,2 p = -8

***

 

 

TIPS

1.50 BANGOR

VALADOM – 1 point win – 9/1 | 8/1 (both generally available) WON 9/1*

*made all, jumped well, fit,galloped,job done...

(he will be all in this race)

 

Just some general notes on HRB that I had a flick through…

I have had a look at the HRB standard ratings- Handicap Chases / Class 2 / 8-16 runners /2013-

Of note maybe.. The top 4 in their ratings win 50% of races in those criteria above…the top 4 rated in this are Ballykan / Perfect Candidate / Valadom / Cloudy Too

Those rated 14 or lower are: 0/50,4 places… Not good news for Smooth Stepper who is bottom rated here, no. 14 of 14.

Those that were rated Top 4 LTO win 46% of races. Those ‘qualifiers’ today include Perfect Candidate / Ballykan/ Valadom / Gallery Exhibition.

Don’t ask me how they calculate these ratings, I don’t know.

Onto the 1.50 and possibly a few pointers…there are some 10 year trends but the numbers are small so some caution advised but of interest maybe…

  • ran over hurdles LTO: 4/13,5 places
  • OR 136 or higher: 0/18,2 places (some caution as small numbers and top weights have won this, i assume off 135 or lower, which suggests the quality of this race is getting better)
  • Trainers of interest: Alan King 2/5,3 places / Jonjo O’Neill 0/7,0 places

 

Why Valadom? 

This bold front runner looks to have plenty going for him and I liked the fact that he was guaranteed to be fit here where I am literally guessing over most of the others – a lot of these don’t have good records after a break but many of the trainers can ready a horse- so a bit of guesswork really as to who is here to run their race- the market may help with that.

Anyway this one looks to have had a prep run LTO- it feels like this has been the target, and the good record of those that ran over hurdles LTO boosts confidence, as does his place in the HRB ratings as above. And for what ‘trends’ there are, he is in the section of the OR ratings.

He was really getting the hang of the chasing game at the back end of last season/early weeks of the new season. That win at Uttoexter was decent and he had plenty in behind that day who have ran well since. Indeed it has produced 7 winners including the 5 who followed him home- Indian Stream (won decent race the other day), Belmount, Cork Citizen, Set List,Beeves – bar Indian Stream that lot may not be work beaters or ‘winter horses’ but that is decent form at least and shows he was beating decent enough animals who would go on to show more- rather than bashing up an exposed bunch. He is lightly raced over here, and after running in france for a little while, seems to have found his trip now. That run at Kempton before that was ok also. As were a couple of runs at Cheltenham. The jockeys claim will help – and he is riding out of his skin at the moment and has a very good record in C2 chases.

The going… well, I am ok as long as it is not worse that soft. He ran well at Leicester on soft where it was probably the distance that beat him more than the going. He looks like a decent enough stayer. Good/Good to Soft is perfect, and 9s allows a chance to be taken if it goes soft. It shouldn’t turn heavy but you never know! That may do for him.

He will also be were I like all chasers to be ideally, and that is in the front 3rd. I suspect he will try and make all here and if he gets into a rhythm, at his pace, and with a run under his belt, he could take a lot of pegging back. I doubt the handicapper has got to him yet and he is one of the best jumpers in this field from recall.

So, at the prices, given all of that, I think he has to be a bet here. Just a question of whether I find anything else to join him but I will wait until some more certainty on the going for that. And I want to ponder a bit more. This one stands out, and I may just stick with him.

UPDATE…

I am just going to stick with him for this race. They have had plenty of rain but it is only now Good to Soft apparently,with likelihood it may go a tad softer than that. I was struggling to make a case for much else, many of whom have fitness questions. Smooth Stepper would have a chance and is unexposed,he looks the most interesting – but he was well stuffed the last twice when last seen and I don’t know how good he is- I have been put off a bit by the fact he is bottom rated in this also,with HRB ratings,and it is usually hard,but not impossible, for such types to win. There is a bit of money around and this could be his season. But, the selection has better chase form in the book and has had a run. Ziga Boy would be of some interest if there was some money as it may suggest he is fit- if this has been a target then he could go very well. But, he has needed the run the last two years. If he doesn’t need it here, he could go well.

I will leave it there for tips today.

 

***

JUMPS ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)

1.50 Bang – Goodtoknow DNQ UP 201/1

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– live test

Hurdle

1.00 Exet – Kalifourchon (Pipe dist move) UP

3.00 Bang- Tornado In Milan 2nd 20/1 (Williams,60+ days)

Chase

12.50 Bang – Kilronan Castle 3rd 10/1>6/1(2nd run after break)

1.40 Ayr- Bernardeli (top weights) UP

1.50 Bang – Call Me Vic (T George) UP

 

***

That will do for today. Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

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  • The 1.50 at Bangor looks a cracking race, I agree.
    Too early to make a suggestion yet given amount of rain in area but if the ground to remain good (which I doubt) then Valadom would appear to have a good chance.
    Horses with an OR of 135 or above are 0/22, 4 places which eliminates the majority of the field. With a run to blow away the cobwebs a month or so ago this one would appear to hold solid claims if the ground stayed dry. It’s form of its uttoxeter chase win looks solid with the 2nd and 3rd both winning twice, as well as Set List (6th) winning since and also placing in the Badger Ales last weekend.
    He also finished a 3 and a quarter length 4th to Loose Chips at Kempton 3 runs ago and that one has gone in again in a veterans chase after running the 150 rated Double Ross close the time before at Chepstow in Oct.
    Horse seemed to progress throughout last season also running well in two cross country chases at Cheltenham leading for a long way before the stamina reserves ebbed away over the testing 3m6f distance, and at 7 should still improve this season.
    Looking at the trends a horse rated 135 or below looks key, I’ll be waiting till the morning before considering a wager but I certainly won’t be doing a rain dance as good ground would seem to boost this ones chances!

    Leon 08/11/16 5:23 PM Reply


    • Hi Leon, I appear to agree with you- he is the one that really stands out to my eye- Soft ground, while not ideal, wont be a ready excuse I don’t think- he handles it well enough, but given his ‘bounce along in front style’ prob prefers Good- harder for those in behind to catch you without going faster/causing errors etc. Agree with everything you have said – like the fact he has had a prep run, and his running style. Could get this lot on the stretch esp if plenty are not 100% sharp. More to come from him this season as reckon he was just getting hand of British chasing game a couple months back.

      May be one more to follow but will wait to see if it does go softer etc. I think at 9s I would be backing him now- well, I have! GL

      Josh 08/11/16 8:10 PM Reply


  • Yeah, looks like one of the very few horses who look to have this race as an early season target with fairly decent prize money on offer. With the rating cap in mind, for one reason or another I’ve eliminated a majority of these above that mark though could be proved wrong. Both the King horses will probably need the run, Jonjo’s – well i wouldn’t back any of his runners at present even with bookies money, Perfect Candidate’s on a career high mark at the age of 9 and I get a feeling Feral O Brien is using this as a sighter towards the Becher Chase next month reading his sporting life article, Ballykan has been on the go all summer but NTD knows the time of day and Cloudy Too PU in the race last year and really does need the mud flying these days.

    I’ll be interested to see how Smooth Stepper gets on at the foot of the weights. The Smith/Danny Cook partnership may be one to track in the immediate future (3/7 this month and Cook produced a nice ride on Asterix of Ellisons earlier when Smith had Blakemount in the race). Has a couple of nice pieces of form from last year – the reappearance run in the novice chase at Bangor last October behind Coologue and it’s third in the novice handicap at Cheltenham give it a squeak if fully tuned up.

    Anyway, lets hope Bargary gets Valadom into a nice jumping rhythm up front and use the fitness advantage to bring home the bacon (took the 9’s with laddys after reading your comments rather than waiting till the morning!) GL

    Leon 08/11/16 9:11 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh /All

    Kempton Stallion selections as follows:

    4.25 – Hurricaine Alert 15.0 (Showcasing 4 runs, 1 win, 2 places)Drawn 9 – 20%
    4.55 – Outrage 3.95 (Exceed & Excel 6 runs, 2 wins, 4 places) Drawn 2 – 7.69%
    5.25 – Modern Life 10.0 (Roderic O Conner 3 runs, 2 wins, 3 places) Drawn 12 – 7.69%
    5.55 – Venetian Proposal 200.00 (Fast Company 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 5 – 7.5%
    6.25 – Hathiq 2.3 (Exceed & Excel 6 runs, 2 wins, 3 places) Drawn 7 – 17.46%
    6.55 – Faydhan 7.8 (War Front 5 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 5 – 6.6%
    7.25 – Banish 13.0 (Smart Strike 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 3 – 12.5%
    7.55 – Nebula Storm 9.4 (Galileo 7 runs, 3 wins, 5 places) Drawn 11 – 15.38%

    Stallions of interest left out due to another selection in race

    6.25 – Peace Dreamer 36.0 (Sir Prancelot 1,1,1) Drawn 3 – 10.94%
    6.55 – Golden Amber 30.0 (Holy Roman Emporer 5,2,2) Drawn 4 – 18.1%
    7.25 – Charlies Mate 18.0 (Myboycharlie 3,1,3) Drawn 12 – 7.69%
    7.25 – Sam Missile 5.4 (Smart Strike 3,1,2) Drawn 3 – 8.7%
    7.55 – Fair Comment 16.0 (Tamayuz 1,1,1) Drawn 5 – 8%

    If I have some time later tomorrow I’ll will post up Dundalk as well

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 08/11/16 11:27 PM Reply


    • Terrific stuff this Steve…..don’t burn to much midnight oil though lol.

      Cheers mate…GL.

      Tony Mc. 09/11/16 11:55 AM Reply


      • Nebula Storm also fits the winter all weather profile stats

        eddie 09/11/16 12:55 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I am glad you picked out Valadom since I very much had it as one to follow giving that race he has won keeps throwing up winners however I personally left him alone given I am not sure he does handle soft ground (and his sire’s offspring are 1/62 on ground of good/soft or worse). The other worry I had was Hobson hasnt had a winner for about 6 weeks. I have painful memories of this race last year when Algernon Pazham got chinned on the line so trying to go one better. The trends I got from the race were:
    9/10 were aged 6 to 8
    10/10 were rated 135 or below
    9/10 won off a break of 121-365 days
    That left only 2 ie Smooth Stepper and Howlongisafoot. The former does not have a great record off a break of more than 60 days and Chris Gordon hasnt had a winner since May so I am left with Smooth Stepper. (although didnt realise about that HRB stat-arent stats wonderful). Sue Smith is in exceptional form with all 10 of her last runners placing. She brings two here and on first inspection you would think Cloudy Too has the better chance (2/3 on seasonal re-appearance) so I think thats its interesting that Danny Cook chooses the lightly raced horse. He has yet to be out of the places when returning from a break of 31 days or more. He has finished in the top 3 on 5 of his last 6 completed starts chasing home a number of good sorts. He was 2nd to Coologue on re-appearance at his only visit to Bangor. I would expect him to be ridden prominantly just off the pace and should hopefully be there or thereabouts.

    Nick Mazur 09/11/16 12:08 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh can you explain what HRB stats are

    George 09/11/16 8:38 AM Reply


    • Hi George, sorry… HRB stands for Horse Race Base- it is system building software + loads of other stuff. One of main websites I use along with Geegeez.

      http://www.horseracebase.com/

      Josh 09/11/16 8:40 AM Reply


  • Good luck with your bets today everyone

    I’ve sided with your tip, Josh, and also the Call Me Vic. Ive learnt my lesson for leaving Tom George chasers many times before

    You could argue the horse is a summer horse, but thanks to lack of rain, the ground is still ok for him

    You never know when his horses have stopped improving. Just look at Sir Valentino

    Ali 09/11/16 12:13 PM Reply


    • Good luck Ali, yet could be more to come from him for sure, esp if 100% tuned up. If all of these had a run it would be even more of a headscratcher I suppose. Looks decent little race and we shall see how it goes.

      Josh 09/11/16 1:14 PM Reply


  • Brilliant analysis Josh. Thank you.
    Hugh

    alpha2 09/11/16 2:00 PM Reply


  • Booommmm well done Josh spot on

    kevin 09/11/16 2:00 PM Reply


  • VALADOM!! LOVELY JUBBLY.

    Leon 09/11/16 2:01 PM Reply


    • Cheers Gents, nice to get another on the board. Will keep plugging away. Nice when it goes to plan like that and those front running opportunities will continue to emerge through the season also.

      Josh 09/11/16 2:25 PM Reply


  • Judge!

    Well done Josh. I did admittedly reign my stakes in, given the slightly questionable form of the trainer. But bagged a nice bit of profit, nonetheless!

    More rain and a few more winners would be just lovely!

    Ali 09/11/16 2:02 PM Reply


    • Well, nice when it goes well! A judge on my day haha. I should have touched on trainer form – I didn’t think it was that big a deal, albeit I am saying that post race- I looked through his runners before race and many went off big prices- he is a small yard also and when dealing with a horse that price, always wise to not put too much weight on it I think. Unlike Jonjo say, who has so many runners etc it is clear his are just really out of sorts for whatever reason.

      Josh 09/11/16 2:26 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh. Shame Stepper was anything but smooth and his race was over after the first fence although I can take the moral victory of getting 14/1(all £3 worth) and 10/1 on a 4/1 shot.

    Nick Mazur 09/11/16 2:03 PM Reply


    • Yep money did pour on- maybe lacking experience for a test like that, but that first fence error did for him, could never get into rhythm after that. One to keep an eye on him, kept going and may blow away any cobwebs- he will win handicap chases in the north – he may be one who may lead all the way in a few smaller field races also. You keeping backing 4/1 shots at 14s you know which way your bank balance is going over time!

      Josh 09/11/16 2:24 PM Reply


      • Yeah hopefully he might even get dropped. Only problem with a small field handicap is I can see him being very short NTO.

        nickmazur 09/11/16 2:27 PM Reply


  • Nice one josh,had my doubts and fancied Ballykan,but kept the faith and Dutched.

    mozzer 09/11/16 2:05 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mozzer – yep, well if I ever do struggle between Nov-April in hncp chases then I am in big trouble! – nice to read one right and hopefully a few more in coming weeks/months. We shall see. It wont be for the want of trying, or analysing races in a similar way. Still, jumps tips now 109 points for year, and all of that made Jan-May, Nov- . Maybe that says something. Yet to develop my ‘summer good ground eyes’.

      Josh 09/11/16 2:29 PM Reply


  • He’s back! Followed you in and got 10/1. Job done again. Thanks for that one.

    I also had Mungo’s Debut, so good day so far.

    Lots of rain in the south but stopped at 11 AM. We had flooding but difficult to tell if it makes much difference to the ground yet?

    martin colwell 09/11/16 2:36 PM Reply


    • Cheers Martin, nice to get one on the board. Doesn’t take many in 7/1-10/1 range to soon forget recent slump, hopefully a few more soon!

      Yep, rain got in a tad at Bangor but not loads, Exeter looks on good side still but given how Umberto won earlier, suggests enough give there maybe- he loves soft and if that was proper good I don’t think he would have done that. Ah yes I see Mungos sluiced up, great odds in that context. Nice to see Russell hitting some form.

      Josh 09/11/16 2:44 PM Reply


      • Great shout Josh, luckily I bet last night as I had to go out today….Top stuff again.

        Cheers mate. Well Done.

        Tony Mc. 09/11/16 3:15 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Well done on Valadom he was always travelling
    like a winner, I have just tried to get on my members
    account and it wont let me in, I know the monthly
    subs are due and there is money in my bank account
    so could you help please
    Cheers
    Dave

    davidw29 09/11/16 3:18 PM Reply


    • Cheers David…

      I have just looked in system and says that your membership expired- likely that system tried to take money from Paypal and failed a few times, and hence you wont be able to access members posts etc. That can happen if the card registered with Paypal expires or something, or however set up in your paypal account.

      You should still be able to log in with username etc, just not access anything. When logged in you should see a ‘renew subscription’ link in the log in/my account box on the right.

      Failing all that I can erase your account and you can just join again via ‘become a members’.

      Any further problems do email me, may be easier… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

      Josh

      Josh 09/11/16 3:26 PM Reply


  • Well done josh, superb pick.

    michael manning mi 09/11/16 4:09 PM Reply


  • Well done Joshua, superb Thankyou

    michael manning 09/11/16 4:10 PM Reply


    • Cheers, albeit my mother only calls me Joshua haha. Always nice when it goes to plan!

      Josh 09/11/16 4:37 PM Reply


      • Great Call today

        eddie 09/11/16 6:33 PM Reply


        • thanks Eddie. A few more to come in the weeks/months ahead with any luck. It a long crawl this betting game.

          Josh 09/11/16 7:05 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Well done with Valadom excellent selection but not surprised with your chase expertise….A few more Stallion selections for Dundalk tonight

    6.35 – Harvey Spector 60.0 (Vale of York 10,4,5) Drawn 11 – 6.59%
    7.05 – US Navy Seal 50.0 (War Front 6, 2, 4) Drawn 8 – 9.04%
    7.35 – Beau Satchel 11.5 (Indesatchel 3,1,2) Drawn 5 – 11.3%
    9.05 – Spanish Boy 20.0 (Lope De Vega 2,1,1) Drawn 4 – 11.08%

    Apologies back in late and missed the 5.35 winner Toreen Dancer 17.0 (Vale of York 9,3,4) hopefully the other vale of york horse can win the 6.35pm although the market says no

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 09/11/16 5:57 PM Reply


  • Well done today Josh. and in general.

    It’s not easy sticking your head above the parapet every day.

    ian straker 09/11/16 6:47 PM Reply


    • thanks Ian. I back myself long term in these race types, esp during winter, and enjoy finding the bets in my own attempt to turn a profit to spend on some finer things in life! It will be a fun winter with any luck.

      Josh 09/11/16 7:04 PM Reply


  • Boom Josh !!!

    Long time between drinks but having a couple of Stella tonight – Keep faith,head up and onward and upward

    Keep em comin

    Joe

    Joe Lowery 09/11/16 6:56 PM Reply


    • haha cheers Joe – well, if I conveniently ignore May-October, drinks have been regular enough haha – maybe I will do that next year!! Glad you had a piece. We will get there, I rarely doubt my ability in winter 3m+ handicap chases- confident I will always get enough right to come out in front, and I know I can improve and relish trying to do so.
      Will try my best
      Josh

      Josh 09/11/16 7:03 PM Reply


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