TTP Jumps Notes: 02/11/16 (complete)

 

UPDATE RESULTS TO END WEEK 5 CAN BE READ HERE>>>

These are if backing all horses systematically. Last week was a shocker in truth and I have held my hands up there. From reading ‘my view’ I put myself off/left 13 losers…but I left around +32 points of winners where I was cold- so a 19 point deficit this week. Since the start of week one I have left more losers than that deficit and I did my best to put you off 4 in Caulfield’s Venture race + one other. Much for me to work on with the ‘my view’ but the overall results after week 5 are rather decent and should give confidence moving forwards. I would always advise keeping your own results as some will differ against those. But, hopefully you are all ahead at this stage, however and whenever you engage with the stats.

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MUSSELBURGH

1.00

Civil Unrest (hncp h) UP

NOTE: Ewart’s running well without winning, 0/9,5 places last 14 days. He is in good form and is unexposed enough over hurdles I suppose – 2/10,6 places in handicap hurdles. He won well enough over fences the last day in a weak race. This doesn’t look the deepest of C4 hurdles and he has hacked up over CD in C5 handicap hurdles here before. I suspect he will try and give this a good go from the front and he certainly has a chance to my eye.

2.40

Asuncion (hncp c) UP

NOTE: Menzies 1/7,2 places in the last 14 days. This horse looks interesting enough at a price and given he is aged 6 and 1/10,3 places over fences, I won’t be saying leave him alone. One to trust the stats maybe. It is possibly he needed the run the last day over hurdles and the blinkers return here having been left off the last day. He likes to race prominently and could try and make all. This does look a shocker of a race. The major question, other than his well being, is the ground. His best/only form is in a bog. But, it isn’t conclusive that he won’t handle good and he is a double figure price. A poor run wouldn’t be a shock, but neither would a competitive one.

 

3.10

Touch of Steel (hncp h) UP

NOTE: Ewart same form stats as above. The horse is 0/4,0 places now in C4 handicaps, 3 of them over hurdles. There is that niggle/question now whether good enough for this level. The rest is my subjective view- you couldn’t say he can’t win but he seems a bit out of sorts and comes here after a poor chase run LTO. The fav, Shantou Tiger, had a wind op before he hosed up LTO- wish I had known that before the race albeit one of you was very keen on his chance anyway, as posted in comments. He will give this a good go from the front you would expect. ToS needs to find a bit for me, his last 4 runs have been awful. Struggling to see a reason why he would suddenly bounce back into form.

 

3.40

Proud Gamble (hncp c) WON 5/1 

NOTE: Dobbin 0/9,2 places last 14 days. This one is in form and if he build on/repeats that last run should put him in the mix here to my eye. CD winner. He is 0/8,1p in C4 but 5 of those over hurdles and he has came a close second in a chase in the class. I wouldn’t want to say just yet that he can’t compete at this level, albeit he could be a C5 animal.

Colorado (hncp c) UP

NOTE: Trainer 1/7,2 places here last 14 days. This 10 year old is no forlorn hope- well given he is 16s I am anxious not to put you off totally. Mainly as he is lightly raced and is doing a few things differently He won at Cartmel over the summer for old connections. This is the third start for this trainer. The ground softened the last day and I wonder if that is a ready excuse, albeit a poor run. He gets the blinkers on here. He clearly has plenty of questions to answer now and the market may guide. This is only his 4th chase start under rules but clearly his legs won’t be getting any quicker.

 

CHEPSTOW

3.50

Deadly Move (all hncps + micro TJC) 2nd

NOTE: Bowen 2/10,3 places last 14 days, ‘in form’. Horse is lightly raced over fences, has had a break and takes a step up in trip. Doing a few things differently and quite hard to say he can’t win.

Phangio (all hncps) WON 12/1 * (45p rule 4)

12/1 is the price he will be recorded at in results and is the price I took given market is a guide for this yard and he seemed steady at 12s after all the non runners/rule 4 – there were 3 non runners who at time of withdrawals were around 5/1 which for me completely changed the complexion of the race.  He was then up against one who may not have been fit,one may not stay and one completely out of form. I know some of you backed him last night at big prices,(albeit near enough 12s after deduction) and if you read My View hopefully you may have had a go when price came in/all the non runners. 

NOTE: trainer 0/14,2 places last 30 days. This one is 1/29 in career and second start for trainer. Seems to be up against it here and market may guide. 0/7,2 places over fences. Can’t see that many excuses for his last run which was very poor. Big step up needed here to get involved you would think. This is more his distance though. Questions albeit you may have seen worse 33/1 (25/1 general I think) shots given how lightly raced over fences he is.

4.20

Sumkindofking (NHF) WON 2/1 (after heft R4)

NOTE: not much to say here, the trainer’s horses are going well enough and poor trainer form wont be an excuse for this one. Seems well touted and has caused some discussion in comments on the Free Daily Post. It is expected that he gets well punted here.  I have had a bit on at 9/2 already and will trust the stats.

 

My View:

I have personally decided to leave Touch of Steel (recent form a bit too poor for me,albeit getting to an EW price I suppose,looks out of sorts), Colarado (any market support should be noted but that run LTO too poor and quite a few more interesting ones in here,inc the other qualifier,he has questions to answer) and Phangio who really looks up against it- 3/4 in here have solid chances to my eye and plenty would have to go wrong for others for him to get involved. Market support should be noted– trainer is 1/112,10 places with handicap chasers going off 22/1 or bigger- so they are hard to find! Hopefully none of them leave me with egg on my face again. As always do with that as you please.

The rest seem to have some sort of chance to my eye.

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