FREE DAILY POST: 02/11/16 (COMPLETE)

TTP: WINTER ALL WEATHER

FREE Taster HERE>>>

You can buy the full guide for £7 HERE>>> (£1 of every sale to injured jockeys fund)

(update: there were two qualifier at Kempton one WON 13/2, Ebbisham… qualified under 2 angles, one in the freebie trainer/distance/class,and one in main guide..trainer/jockey combo. Maybe I could get into this sand malarkey 🙂

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TTP Jumps Results>>> well we have ended week five as of Sunday evening and this is starting to turn into the best piece of research I have ever undertaken (albeit Sept/Oct trainers + V Williams have not been bad!)>>>

You can read a full breakdown of results HERE>>> 

Summary>>> if backing all systematically. Since start of week 1 I am probably just up with horses I have ‘advised’ leaving vs winners I have left- albeit I had a shocker on Saturday but I don’t wish to dwell on that 🙂 These stats continue to suggest that the motto ‘if in doubt, trust the stats’ is best followed…

Running Total End Week 5

General Race Types:24/144,47 places = +45.8 points

Micro Angles: 11/67,23 places = +15.5 points

Total including multiple qualifiers: 35/211, 70 places = +61.3 points

Total 1x  1 point only : 31/186, 57 places = +49.8 points

Bonus Stats: 1/8,1 p = -4

(oh and 7/1 +6/1 winners on Tuesday to add to those stats…)

As always you can take a free 7 day trial HERE>>> (and after the 7 days if staying you get £45 worth of stats reports for free inc the TTP Jumps and the AW stats pack. A bargain for £10 per month 🙂

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TIPS

Back with a winner yesterday at 7/1 and hopefully I can build on in in the coming weeks>>>

 

3.50 Chepstow

Paddy The Deejay – 1 point win NR (maybe even too quick for him it seems)- 11/2 (bet365/WH) 5/1 (general)

 

Why Him?

This looks an interesting little race to my eye and I think this one is worth chancing at the odds in what looks an open enough little contest. Him and Deadly Move interest me the most, the latter being a TTP stats selection – I have had a saver on him at 1/2 point which I put on last night at 5s before looking at this race in more depth. Having done so I want to have more on the selection- I hope one of them goes in.

For me this is all about the step up in trip, and the fact that he is fit. No guessing going on here. Rated 117 over hurdles he has some ability and his best chase run was his last, over 2m5f at Fontwell, after 170 days off. He was out the back there in a race where the leaders didn’t come back and he didn’t have the pace to quicken , and when the pace lifted he was taken out of his jumping comfort zone a little. His jumping could be better- a bit scrappy- without looking like he is going to tip over. He will get better with experience I should think. That run, his relatives- half brother to 3m hurdle/chase winner and a point winner, and the fact he is a double point winner himself, suggest this near enough 3 miles could be the making of him. He looks a big framed galloping sort also and this track may suit much more than the turns of Fontwell. He has a long turn in and straight in which to organise himself and gallop on. I fear him making a howler at a fence down the home straight but at 11/2, given the race/oppo, and his upside potential, I thought worth a chance. The trainer is 0/11,4 places at the track, a few chasers running welll,and this horse has actually run here also over fences. Another tick.

All in all he looked the most interesting to me. The Tizzard horse is the only front runner in here, the rest usually held up- I suspect they may do the same but he isn’t a keen sort to my eye and why you would insist on keeping a horse held up out the back in a chase I have no idea. It just makes no sense. Hopefully Josh uses his head and sits just behind any leader but we shall see. Given the field size and the long home straight I wont use that as an excuse as he should have enough time to get going and in theory shouldn’t be too far off the leader at any point. So far at Chepstow, on this ground, nothing has come from the back over fences. Oh and that is the final point- the going. It has the dreaded firm in the title which none of these may like that much but he is one of the few with proven form on good ground so it should be fine.

The dangers…

Well there are two really for me…

Deadly Move- money is coming for this one and given Bowen’s recent form/connections and the horse’s profile I can see why. It ‘looks’ like the step up in trip may help BUT unless you are David Pipe (check the micro angle portfolio) I am never too keen on a massive distance move – he goes up near enough 5f here and having watched his last two race he didn’t ‘stay on’ over that shorter trip, more just plugged on and he was well stuffed the last day. Part of me thinks he may just not be very good and this step up is a roll of the dice. But, he is doing something different and he is lightly raced. he did jump well the last day, probably better than the selection- looked slicker. Ground should be fine for him also. The break is a concern, Bowen’s chasers ‘only’ 10/117 after breaks of 60+ days, 1/11 at the track. He can ready them though, clearly. Seems to be about whether he wants to or not! Chance, if staying. I think the selection looks a stouter stayer but we shall see. I have money on both. Albeit 7/2 would be getting on short side on this one for me.

Bears Rails- well he has a good chance and form behind Henri Pari Morgan last season reads quite well now really. A repeat of that run probably sees him win this well. But, he has been best with plenty of cut and more importantly there is the fitness question – he was 100/30 on his reappearance last year and faded over the last couple of flights as if needing it. 200+ days off here. Tizzard also ‘only’ 5/48,17p handicap chases at  track last 5 years, and 3/32 at track all runners the last year. All of that makes me want to take him on/leave him at 9/4. He should get an easy lead and if tuned up is the one to beat, but you have to look to take this type on for me, at that price.  Price Price Price. 🙂 (cue hacking up on bridle – ‘oh, 9/4 looks massive now’)

Of the rest…

well I don’t want to be on them. Albert Dolivate looks like a mud lark to me (that should be noted for future, always useful to know) If you can win in heavy around Chepstow you will find opportunities over the winter. If it ever rains of course. Fitness is also a question and like with the trainer’s Sun Wild Life yesterday, he doesn’t have a great record with horses returning after a break, now 4/50 all runners 60+ days last 2 years. Those two things make me want to leave him, happy for him to beat me at 5s. Wouldn’t shock me if he was withdrawn once they walk the track.

The other three have questions now. I can’t touch Jonjo at the moment albeit his ran OK yesterday. This horse ticks plenty of profile boxes and at his best would have a chance- albeit could be a ‘summer form’ horse. But, his last two runs, seemingly without an excuse, have been awful. Really bad. Happy to leave on that basis and he isn’t even a double figure price on which to take a stab. Hawke’s runner could go well as he is top rated and is unexposed over fences- I wonder if Tom Scu had the choice here as Hawke does like using him and he has ridden the horse a few times. But either way I don’t like his last 3 runs and I think he is a doubtful stayer- 0/4,0 places 2m5f + now. They won’t go a great pace here mind and a questionable stayer (the Bowen horse maybe, or this one) could get away with it. Happy to leave him at 5s/6s also.

So, that is the lot. A decent little contest. Walford’s horse is one to follow after a few runs/when mud is hock deep I think. (egg at the ready) Hopefully the selection can jump around in one piece- if he completes error free (and they were scrappy errors the last day, not howlers,which could have been caused my the pace they were going,and he is entitled to be learning) I think he looks sure to play a role here, staying on stoutly over the last couple when everything else is blowing up because they need the run, or they simply don’t stay.

Good luck.

p.s there is a 3m chase at Muss but I was happy to leave that, albeit TTP users may be hoping Proud Gamble runs a solid race 🙂

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio 

Hurdle

2.50 Chep: Distant Rain NR /Miss Mash UP (both ‘unexposed hurdlers’)

2.50 Chep: Distance Rain NR (also the improve for the run angle)

 

STAT/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

An All-Weather Bonus today, which I may do from time to time, using my AW TTP report. Qualifiers were 1/2 yesterday which was a good start.

Two today I think, albeit do check yourselves as I am liable to miss the odd one…

7.55 – Star Storm 10/1 2nd,close (decent EW stab maybe,trainer won race last year)

8.25 – Moon Arrow UP / Master of Heaven UP

CLARIFICATION... We shall see how they get on. Note for any guide users… Mrs A L Perrett is the one in maidens, who is different from Mrs A Perrett who has a runner in one of the maidens. Very confusing, Linda and Amanda is it…

Ignore what I have written above there- I am getting confused between the HRB initials and those in Racing Post. Mrs A J Perrett as in guide, IS Mrs A Perrett as you will see on a normal racecard. Miss L A Perratt is based in Scotland – confusing when you only have a very quick glance, or have been on the beers 🙂 S0… her running in the 6.25 WOULD qualify, albeit is 66/1 and her record with 1st time out 2 year olds not great. But, you never know. 

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That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Josh
    Will you be putting up the qualifiers from the AW stats you published?

    Mike

    mickeydee 01/11/16 5:40 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      No I won’t be at this stage. I would rather put the time into the jumps info in truth, albeit on quieter days I may. I don’t want to comit to doing the AW qualifiers also. But, it doesn’t take long to flick through the cards really.
      I will ponder and may trial privately whether to put them up albeit a lot of value in the members club already imo.
      Josh

      Josh 01/11/16 6:19 PM Reply


  • Had a whisper for a tom george tomorrow Sumkindaking 4.20 chep its still 9/2 with bet 365,been told it will be heavily backed.

    mozzer 01/11/16 6:22 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mozzer yep I hope they are right, he is a TTP NHF trainer qualifier for Chepstow, only sent 4 NHF horses there in recent years, 2 have won. Maybe sends the ready ones there. Had one go in at Aintree recently. Have had a nibble at 9/2. Maybe I will have 1/4 more on in that case! Hope that’s a reliable whisper and not someone down the pub haha

      Josh 01/11/16 6:25 PM Reply


      • Same one that gave me stoical patient that romped home a few weeks back.

        mozzer 01/11/16 7:01 PM Reply


    • That one is also on Mark Howard’s Top 40 list. The PTP he won has a rich history of producing very good horses.

      Nick Mazur 01/11/16 7:35 PM Reply


      • Ah yes,so he is. I had better not go in again! 1 point enough on a bumper horse for me. Hopefully he can bolt up.

        Josh 01/11/16 7:38 PM Reply


    • He looks good alright

      les 01/11/16 11:17 PM Reply


      • Maybe Harry Fry heard how good he may be also, having now taken his out! big 40p R4. Certainly looks the one to beat now.

        Josh 02/11/16 9:29 AM Reply


    • Cheers Mozzer ….just the job.

      Tony Mc. 02/11/16 4:41 PM Reply


    • Such an aptly named horse!

      Nick Mazur 02/11/16 4:47 PM Reply


      • Lovely to watch, money in bag long way from home,could sit back and enjoy him then. can’t think he has beaten much but not sure he was even asked a question!! he must fly at home, could be very talented. Very few George bumper horses do that, future start hopefully. Be nice tracking his progress through the years.

        Josh 02/11/16 4:49 PM Reply


  • Tom George won the bumper too last year with Bun Doran, a decent type of his. Had a nibble as well based on your word Nick, and the TTP angle.

    leon1986 01/11/16 7:05 PM Reply


  • I think we can safely assume that the loss of Paddy Brennan hasn’t diluted the potency of the George stable.To my mind the stable seems more active now than in recent years,maybe part of reason why they have opted for a new retained jockey,meanwhile Paddy is riding winners on a daily basis,so its been a win/win situation

    gearoid180468 01/11/16 7:34 PM Reply


    • Yep agree with that, Heskin looks a natural and very astute signing him up. That change very good news for the likes of Fergal OBrien and K McLintock etc, plus will be plenty busy with the tizzard yard. Agree, all seems to be working well. And seeing where Paddy is booked to ride is another angle in as a starting point.

      Josh 01/11/16 7:38 PM Reply


  • One I like to tomorrow (other than Sumofaking which has already been mentioned) is So Fine in the 15:20 at Chepstow. Dickie and Hobbs are 3/4 +11 over handicap hurdles at the track in the past 12 months (Dickie is 6/10). The horse has ran well fresh so fitness shouldnt be an issue. He is now 1lb below his last winning mark and 4lbs lower than a good 3rd the last time he ran over hurdles in a class 2 (plus winner went on to win agian and 2nd ran well at the Cheltenham Festival). 6 of Hobbs last 10 runners have finished 1st or 2nd so stable are in fine form (are they ever out of form!)

    Nick Mazur 01/11/16 7:52 PM Reply


  • Yes Sumkindofking is taking some money but I got on at 9/2.

    Another one expected to attract support is Charlemar in the 1.10 at Chepstow. Already down to 6/1 best. Expensive French import.

    martin colwell 01/11/16 8:44 PM Reply


    • Wow that was a welcome drift tx to criq rock. Very Nice. Thank You Martin

      mozzer 02/11/16 1:20 PM Reply


    • going to have to dig deep in my pockets for your ever growing beer tab Martin haha, good stuff.

      Josh 02/11/16 1:23 PM Reply


      • YES, have my free beer for a year tokens sent by courier please?

        martin colwell 02/11/16 2:29 PM Reply


        • Guinness is better Martin….good shout.

          Tony Mc. 02/11/16 4:43 PM Reply


    • Well done Martin-that was a nice tip for Charlemar-and also well done to everyone else on Sumkindofking…looks a good horse!!
      Shame the treble wasn’t allowed to come in with So Fine a n/r!!!

      Mick Durcan 02/11/16 4:53 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Well the selections at Kempton found 3 of the 8 winners this evening although the odds were nothing to write home about a small profit was made using Betfair SP so lets see if we can build on that with another evening meeting at Kempton tomorrow……

    Main Selections –

    4.55 – Le Tissier (Sir Percy 7 runs,2 wins,5 places) Drawn 10 – 50%

    5.25 – Kitty Boo (Invincible Spirit 10 runs,1 win,4 places) Drawn 8 – 9.46%

    5.55 – My Rosie (Redoutes Choice 1 run, 1 win. 1 place) Drawn 3 – 9.41%

    6.25 – Ghadaayer (Shamardal 5 runs, 1 win, 5 places) Drawn 8 – 11.49%

    6.55 – Kodiac Khan (Kodiac 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 3 – 11.43%

    7.25 – Plymouth Sound (Fastnet Rock 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place) Drawn 7 – 16.33%

    7.55 – Star Storm (Sea the Stars 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place) Drawn 7 – 16.33%

    8.25 – Dusty Raven (Ravens Pass 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 9 – 17.86%

    Footnote – Stallions of interest left out (in the main) due to inferior stallion data

    5.25 – Penny Red (Medicean 6,1,2) Drawn 3 – 9.41%
    5.55 – Classified (Lope De Vega 2,1,1) Drawn 6 – 12.5%
    6.25 – Tomyris (Invincible Spirit 8,2,6) Drawn 9 – 6.98%
    7.25 – Noble Gift (Cadeaux Generaux 1,0,1) Drawn 6 – 22%
    7.55 – Hamlin (Cape Cross 1,0,1) Drawn 4 – 7.55%
    8.25 – Master of Heaven (Makfi 4,2,2) Drawn 12 – 11.76%

    Good Luck
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 01/11/16 10:09 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh/All,
    two for today,
    Chepstow 2.50 Grams And Ounces 26-1 E/W,
    musselb 1.00 Claude Carter 6-1,
    good luck today.

    gregsi 02/11/16 8:36 AM Reply


    • Good luck. Am hoping the old rogue Civil Unrest may try and make all- albeit Claude may also, ruining both their chances. Bit skinny at 10/3 or so, but hopefully one of us in winners enclosure. It is a shocker of a C4 race!

      Josh 02/11/16 9:32 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, bit of a mistake with Paypal but will make sure my subs are renewed on the 8th. Kind regards David.

    jacobs123 02/11/16 11:16 AM Reply


  • SODS LAW popped up again yesterday! not missed one of your 3m chase bets for ages, until yesterday when gave 7 to 1 winner, got distracted by my new carp fishing bait boat arriving.

    malcolm pendrey 02/11/16 11:22 AM Reply


    • Ah sorry to hear that Malcolm, but I suspect your new carp fishing bait boat (I can’t even picture what one of those looks like!!) will give you enough satisfaction to make that winner a distant memory! 🙂

      Josh 02/11/16 11:34 AM Reply


  • Mozzer, thanks for the word on Sumkindofking.

    Massive R4 but a nice little touch nonetheless!

    Ali 02/11/16 4:36 PM Reply


    • Quite, boosted the confidence, as did Nick’s word from Jumping Prospects…was a TTP selection also, don’t forget that haha. They had a good day again.

      Josh 02/11/16 4:40 PM Reply


  • I concur well done guys with your collective thoughts and analysis made Evs look a good price and won like a 1/5 shot great stuff

    Steve Wiseman 02/11/16 5:37 PM Reply


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