TTP Jumps Notes: 01/11/16 (complete)

NOTE 1

The following report is now complete and can be accessed when logged in, from within the Exclusive Downloads section to the left hand side, where it will always reside…

 

TTP WINTER ALL WEATHER>>> CLICK HERE>>>

 

NOTE 2

Those of you who have stayed beyond the free trial period and made your first payment (either monthly or annual) should now have access to the ‘Exclusive Downloads’ section to the left hand side- when you are logged in. That has the link to the main TTP report in it, which you can use as you please. If you cannot see that section then I have problems my end that I will need to fix. If you cannot access it please so say. 

 

***

Just the one meeting from Exeter on Tuesday…

 

EXETER

2.20

Purple N Gold (micro – age) UP

NOTE: Pipes only going ok. He usually sparks into life in November, if all is well. 3/26,6 places in the last 14 days. I mean I have made a clanger or two in the last few days, but surely on all known evidence and recent form this one doesn’t have a chance. I won’t be backing him and will just stare bewildered into the abyss if he manages to win this. If he does, I won’t ever trust Tom Scus judgement again! I think he needs at least 5 to run nowhere near their best here to go close. 33s is a decent EW price but I wont be playing him, hoping he grabs a distant 3rd- not impossible I suppose but I wont be playing him.

 

3.20

Caulfields Venture (hncp c) WON 7/1 

NOTE: Lavelle ‘in form’ 1/9,5 places last 14 days, they are going well enough. I fancied this one the last day over CD where he drifted alarmingly pre race. He had a good record fresh and I wonder if that meant he may have needed it. In any case he ran ok, maybe not responding to the blinkers as hoped. The visor returns here. He isn’t getting any younger now though and always open to attack from younger legs. This is a race I will ponder in depth in the morning. I am also starting to go off Jacob over fences- I don’t know what it is but I don’t like how he is riding in chases at the moment- not sure if he lacks confidence but he just ‘lets’ horses jump too often for me, giving them little encouragement or confidence. He needs to watch Paddy Brennan for tips on how to boot one over a fence. Still, that is just a personal view, he may well ride a cracker here! Rarely do I let a jockey put me off a horse if I like the price etc. Conditions are fine for the horse.

Sun Wild Life (all hncps + hncp c) UP

NOTE: trainer 1/6,2 places last 30 days. He is also just 4/49, 11 places with all runners 60+ days rest. That figure is 1/20,3 places in handicap chases last 5 years. Horse is 0/3,0 places 60+ days. He was 11l 4th in this race on his return last year, off 6lb higher, on soft. It looks like he has a preference for soft but has run well on Good. Some pondering for me on his chance, he is ‘only’ 6/1. He doesn’t win very often but if was 100% fit is good enough to have a say.

Gary Charm (micro age) UP

NOTE: Same Pipe stats as above. This french winner is hard to weigh up on recent form. He was going ok LTO before unseating. Tom Scu picks him from the three which may be some indication. Stamina an unknown- yet to prove he can’t stay I suppose but all French form up to around 19f.

For N Against (micro age) UP

NOTE: I left him last time over CD and given jockey preferences, and the balance of form, suspect I will do so again. Him and Skylander look to have plenty on here…

Skylander (micro age) UP

NOTE: he was also left LTO as well by me. His recent chase form, including over CD LTO leaves him with a few questions to answer now I think. As I said I will be looking at this race in the morning in the free post- albeit my tips in those chases haven’t been too much of a guide! I think the first three of this list are the place to focus, on this post anyway. Famous last words.

 

3.50

Absolutely Bygones (micro TJC) UP

NOTE: trainer 0/2,0 places last 30 days. Not much to go on there. Horse is 0/5,2 places after breaks 60+ days, can run well and is a CD winner. His best rules form has been in a bog, but his recent ok PTP form was on a decent surface. Market may guide. Made return here in Nov 2014 and only just got run out of it on Heavy. If handling the ground, back down to last winning mark. Certainly could play a leading role. Only raced on Good twice under rules so hard to say he won’t handle it.

 

4.20

Clum Counsellor (hncp h) WON 6/1

NOTE: trainer in form, 2/6,2 places last 14 days. Ran well here LTO where I left him – gulp,maybe a sign- and he very nearly won. Based on how he went there this slight step up in trip could help. Same jockey is on and in what is a shocker of a race, you would like to think IF he repeated that run here would have chance. Clearly a level where most are unpredictable but hopefully he can build on that promise.

***

My View:  At this stage I am personally more than comfortable leaving Purple N Gold, For N Against and Skylander. I would be disappointed if either of those were good enough to win. They don’t have an ‘Antony’ profile and all look rather exposed/not good enough on recent form. The other three in that chase need some attention but on paper/profile you couldn’t rule any out. The final two look to have a decent enough chance and look worthy of some support…

Some final thoughts on the 3.20 Chase  – Caulfield’s Venture is the main one in this race for me and I have tipped him for one point win on the Free post, you can read my write up there. I can’t have For N Against and Skylander on what they have done recently, and will go down as a clunker if either wins. Sun Wildlife has a chance- I have left him based on his price in context of a few questions he has to answer- mainly fitness + going. He could win but at 5s/6s I was happy to leave, were he 12s+ that may have been different. That leaves Gary Charm and I really don’t want to say anything to put you off him if you like his chance. He has questions to answer BUT, hasn’t proved he wont stay, hasn’t proved he won’t handle the ground and hasn’t proved that the handicapper has him. Scu picks him – I wouldn’t be shocked if he runs an ok race here-some signs of market life would have me concerned as at this stage I was happy to leave him. Unlike Antony though – the benchmark for howlers- he isn’t in winning form and he isn’t in the unexposed/lightly raced, could be anything category. He also isn’t a double figure price.

So, do with that as you please!

Good luck with whatever you back.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Great stuff, love the all weather especially the longer distance stuff! Can I get more boring than that lol

    James b 31/10/16 2:50 PM Reply


    • Nope, I don’t think you can! 🙂

      Josh 31/10/16 3:00 PM Reply


  • Nice one josh I for one certainly appreciate your hard work and tome you put into everything many thanks and look forward to a long association with yourself

    thomasson67 31/10/16 3:45 PM Reply


    • I like the all weather as you can find a few winners with track specialists who prefer one track but run at the other tracks as well to mix the form up.

      martin colwell 31/10/16 7:50 PM Reply


  • Dear Josh I have joined as a£10 member but I do appear to be having accees to everything in the members club! Please advise. Howyn Jones

    438014 31/10/16 4:05 PM Reply


    • Hi Howyn, I will email you asap. Will be easier than discussing on here.
      Josh

      Josh 31/10/16 4:24 PM Reply


  • Sorry josh I totally messed up my monthly payment this month I ended up taking the free week trial which I had not intended to do havering been a member before but that’s me all over and I do apologise for that

    thomasson67 31/10/16 6:56 PM Reply


    • No problem…I assume you can now access the exclusive downloads sections, having now gone past the trial period…it should all be working fine but good to check…

      Josh 31/10/16 7:06 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Great work on the AW, will give us some fun over the winter i’m sure. Got to say i had exactly the same thoughts as you about D. Jacob, i dont think he presents a horse at a fence well, the horses look guessy as they approach. I have been mindful of him ever since he fell off one going to the start at Cheltenham awhile ago, which looked amateurish to me. I notice P Nicholls didnt have him for too long after Ruby left. When he replaced Aiden Coleman on Crimson Ark on saturday, i knew i had done my dough. I know this sounds harsh and i really hope he proves me wrong and starts winning races when hes not on the best horse, which i think is the mark of a good jockey

    jamesm 01/11/16 10:35 AM Reply


    • Yep agree with that – hopefully he isn’t the cause of my downfall today but given what I have said he will probably stand there and let horse plough through a fence! Exeter not stiffest of jumping tests so hopefully he will be fine! Yep, noticed it on Fox Appeal at Chepstow- poor horse isn’t the best jumper but I think paddy brennan would hack up on him now, Jacob presented him/booted him/saw a stride at only one fence in the whole race- and he flew it- the rest he left the horse to guess, which when you are a bit unsure in your mind cant help- yep same with Crimson Ark, wasnt great on Twisters at Carlisle either.
      The fact Coleman was down to be on him may be some indication. He can clearly ride- and that Cheltenham incident may be the cause of his mental anguish- definitely in the mind for me.

      Caulfield’s will get him out of trouble today 🙂

      Josh 01/11/16 10:47 AM Reply


  • I forgot he’s on Caulfields, i’ve passed on that one…good luck…i suspect you will find yourself shouting at the telly about 3 strides out from each fence! haha

    jamesm 01/11/16 10:56 AM Reply


    • ha oh god, yep I suspect you may be right! At least he knows the horse a bit better now. I would hope he can go close here but given my 3m+ chase form, who knows!

      Josh 01/11/16 11:07 AM Reply


      • After the fox appeal ride I have looked at a number of rides and concluded he is better over hurdles

        danegold 01/11/16 11:26 AM Reply


        • yep you and me both! That ride was one of the worst you will see for me, albeit slight pocket talk! But still, I couldn’t resist. If I were an owner/trainer I wouldn’t have him near a young chaser who needs to be taught to jump also. Hopefully he can improve and I am no expert on jockeyship, but he hasn’t been great.

          Josh 01/11/16 11:28 AM Reply


  • hi josh can you check i start my membership on the 8th november
    thanks russ

    russ 01/11/16 10:57 AM Reply


    • Hi Russ, yep I have seen that come through and your first payment will come out then. You have access to everything bar the exclusive downloads sections which includes the main TTP guide and the AW one also – I don’t send those out straight away as in theory some would sign up for the free trial, get near enough £50 worth of stuff, and then cancel– sadly there are a few who would do that.
      However, if you think you may be staying for at least one month, drop me an email- if you are a fan of the sand I will send you the AW one no problem.

      Josh 01/11/16 11:06 AM Reply


  • I see no downloads on the left but I do see the aw report at the top. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place as I’m on mobile and am sure this is formated for pc? Or you think I’m just gonna rob all the stuff you’ve worked hard on creating haha!

    James b 01/11/16 5:33 PM Reply


    • hi James… I think everything bar the members log in etc may be fine on mobile- that is something for me to look at- on pc or tablet it should be fine. If you are logged in, and have gone past the trial period, you should have access to exclusive reports and exclusive downloads down the left hand side. At this stage I am not your that aspect of blog is mobile friendly- something else to add to my list! Sorry about that – can email you the stuff if needed. Access is only granted post trial period.

      I dont think you would personally rob me haha, but there have been a few already who, before the trial, joined , got access to TTP, and cancelled the same day or next day, saving themselves about £28.

      Josh 01/11/16 6:35 PM Reply


      • If you could email me them that would be great Josh, altho as you post up all that’s relevant for the days racing it’s not too important. Your views on the qualifiers and stats is more important as I can’t read form or guess when one might go in! Il also say that Il be subscribed all the way to the end of jumps season at the very least 😉

        James b 01/11/16 10:45 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Just had a quick neb at Kempton A/W stats is HIORN TOWER a qualifier for the trainer/jockey/class stats Best /Fox class 6 ?

    shek2nd 01/11/16 8:02 PM Reply


    • hi , yep he was, I missed him- looked good for a while but faded late. Still, 1/2 on the day it seems.

      Josh 01/11/16 8:33 PM Reply


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