TTP Jumps Notes: 31/10/16 (complete)

 

PLUMPTON 

3.10

Mount Versuvius 3rd 10/1 (all hncps)

Ran ok but maybe that run is final proof that he needs shorter. Came into it well from the back but was never getting to front two and stayed on at one pace, rather than closing to the line. 

NOTE: P Henderson 0/5, 1 place last 14 days. The booking of S Bowen caught the eye  – first ride for the trainer. The horse…well there is little evidence to say he definitely can’t get competitive here. Ignoring the chase LTO he was consistent over hurdles before that. There is a stamina question, but he has placed over similar trips , again suggesting you would be hard pressed to say he definitely wont stay. Doesn’t win very often but it isn’t the deepest of races.

Awesome Tunes (hncp hurdles + micro class) UP

Ran ok but you will struggle until his jumping gets much better, didn’t look a natural at all. Travelled well for long way. Probably weak races in him if sorting jumping out. 

NOTE: Pipes going ok, 4/27, 7 places without being ‘in form’ according to geegeez metrics. No reason on that front to be cautious. The horse…well not much to say really as he is in the ‘could be anything’ category, including ‘could not be very good’. Only his second handicap run having fallen early LTO. Looks up against it but you wouldn’t be shocked were he to get involved. Market may offer some guidance.

 

4.10

Shouting Hill (all hncps) 3rd 4/1>5/2

NOTE: Trainer ‘in form’ 2/5,2 places last 14 days. Trainer/jockey are 2/9,5 places when teaming up in handicap hurdles. Horse is 0/10 in career but his best run was LTO over 3f further here, the way he challenged a couple from home suggests this drop back in trip could suit. Horse also has best geegeez speed fig by some way in this. If you look at his handicap hurdle form- this is the first time he has raced over 20f on decent ground. Based on how he has ran to date, if he can’t get involved in these conditions I don’t know where you go next as connections.

 

MY VIEW:

I think Shouting Hill looks the main one to take from that list and to my eye he should be going close here if building on that last run, in what is a weak race. He was 6s last evening, now 4s generally. The other two have some sort of chance, albeit also questions to answer. I can’t say they wont win/will really struggle though, and in that scenario a ‘trust the stats’ approach should pay over time.

 

 

BONUS 

Ireland

Wexford

2.45

Summerhill Lewis UP (all hncps)

Hurry Kitty Fell(all hncps)

Whitber’s Choice 2nd 8/1>6/1 (all hncps)

 

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HEREFORD NOTES

The following do not count in official results but in the guide I looked at those trainers who used to do well here, before the track was closed for three years. They may, or may not, still be a useful pointer. We shall see this season…

4.00

On Demand (all hncps)

Viking Mistress (all hncps + hncp h)

Cruise In Style (hncp h)

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post complete.

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