TTP Jumps Notes: 30/10/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: If in doubt, trust the stats. Famous last words for me on a howler of a day. Apologies if I put you off the two 12/1 winners there- that clearly isn’t the purpose of the ‘my verdict’ section – and across the blog in truth it is becoming apparent why I like trainer stats/angles- and at the same time am yet to run a tipping service. My subjective judgement has had a rocky time. I had a small ‘just in case’ nibble on Hobbs’ winner when he drifted from 7s, but nowhere near a decent bet. And I left Antony completely.

The aim of ‘My Verdict’ is to try and avoid losers really, not put you off winners – and maybe I need to stick to sound, objective, reasons why I may be leaving a horse (ie may have proven not to like conditions, x from x over distance, going, after a break, in the class etc) Certainly with those two winners you couldn’t say any of those things. Anyway, I won’t drone on. The My Verdict is meant to add a bit of value -after days like Saturday you have to reflect. So again, apols if I put you off either of those- I have avoided plenty of losers in recent weeks but those two went some way to wiping out those missed losers. I can take criticism and if my current approach to that section isn’t making you enjoy your experience please do say. Maybe I should run a poll on it.

***

Onto Sunday and due to time/social commitments it is just the Qualifiers (which may be no bad thing)

 

CARLISLE 

2.45

Cultram Abbey 2nd 16/1 (all hncps + micros TJC/0 runs 90 days)

Carrigdhoun (all hncps) WON 14/1>12/1 

(183/1 Straight forecast…nope, i didn’t do that!..) 

 

3.15

Top Billing UP 33/1 (all hncps+hncp hurdles, micros… distance/seasons runs)

 

HUNTINGDON 

3.00

Generous Helpings WON 11/4  (all hncps+hncp h)

 

BONUS 

Ireland

3.40 Wexford – The Mooch UP 7/1(all hncps)

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Hi Josh
    Nor sure east to think about today. The first thing I would say is that you have a ide range of people who access your blogs. Some are obviously experienced horse racing followers and can use your information in conjunction euthanasia their own thoughts and analysis. Then there are people like me who enjoy horse racing and betting but if not have a grea deal of knowledge and like to follow tipsters and bloggers such as yourself.
    I have dipped into your free blog for some time and following your notes about the members area results I decided a couple of days ago to take the 7 day trial before taking full membership. Today using the free tips and qualifiers and following your advice in the members areas I backed 16 horses – no winners and just 2 places from 16 bets.
    I am not having a go in any way – no-one forced me to back these but just 2 days into my trial it has dented my confidence as well as my bank balance
    Not sure if this membership is going to work for me but we will see how it goes in next week.
    As I said not having a go but just a bit disappointed as a trial member – but that’s betting I guess.
    Here’s hoping for a better week.
    Cheers
    Mike

    Mike 29/10/16 6:37 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, thanks for posting, appreciated. We have all had a predictive text problem at some point!
      Firstly Sat demonstrates that i need to up my game on the notes/my verdict which I will try my best to do. I take your point about differing levels of experience etc.
      In hindsight leaving those two winners was criminal – Hobbs winner…he had a good record fresh, had yet to prove he couldn’t win from that mark, and on reflection from looking at the pace it was clear he could get an easy lead- should have trusted the stats and gone with him…
      Antony- unexposed, could be anything horse- they are clearly dangerous types to leave, and even more so when 14/1. I had some doubts over stamina and going, and to a point his jumping. But with the former he had yet to prove he wouldn’t handle them over fences, and was always possible he might improve for the distance- or ‘could do’. Errors all round there.

      In terms of your approach – working out how to engage with the content can always take a bit of time which is why the trial was a good idea I think, and even if you continue for 1 more month there isn’t much financial risk. I would always advise starting with smaller stakes and make sure you have an adequate betting bank – say 100 points to be sure for these TTP posts. It is a marathon not a sprint and stakes etc can always be increased in time. You have to bet to a level etc that is right/comfortable for you and that makes it enjoyable.

      The free posts- yep those micro systems are what they are and Sept/Oct trainers come to an end today. They are around 70+ points up since the start of Sept although I need to go back through the results. The Handicap Hurdle/Chase portfolio is a test really and they are new- have found a few winners but some caution is advised. Those Sept/Oct angles will be up here next year again.

      Ultimately it may not work for you these TTP posts but you will have given it a go. The if in doubt, trust the stats, motto would have served you well to date across the different angles. Hopefully you can find an approach that works for you and I can find the balance right in the My Verdict section to make it more useful.
      Josh

      Josh 30/10/16 11:34 AM Reply


  • PS Sorry about the bloody predictive text on my phone!!!

    Mike 29/10/16 7:02 PM Reply


    • Although it is Josh’s website there are a number of us contributors who do post some solid selections as well. It is a poor man who blows is own trumpet but i did put up 3 good winners in the week and gave a 3/1 winner and a 25/1 place, beaten half a length, today. There are other regular contributors who put up solid tips as well. I do this full time as does Josh, we have different approaches, but we do have to find winners to earn a living at the betting game. You have to take a long term approach. I set out to win x in a calendar year and have to suffer some peaks and troughs.

      martin colwell 29/10/16 8:43 PM Reply


      • Ah, just the man. I’ve been jotting down some of your picks in my margin since 4th May when you tipped a 20/1 winner. Sorry didn’t note the name at the time or a few subsequent ones but had the odds. Then another at 20’s that came in at 12’s on 11/5. On 12/5 could have got 14’s on a winner at 10’s. On 20/5 you mentioned Spray Tan @ 33’s and I jumped on and got a decent place. Missed your picks for next couple of weeks or so and then on 8th June, bugger me 4 picks, 2nrs, a miss and a 50/1 2nd. I’ve not been at the pc every day so haven’t followed you as I should but that will change from Monday.

        Please accept this small thankyou for your sterling contributions until the day, on a course , I can express my personal gratitude.

        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 29/10/16 9:16 PM Reply


        • You can buy me a drink at the races sometime. I will try to give a steady flow of profit over time. Otherwise I will have to get a proper job again!

          martin colwell 30/10/16 10:24 AM Reply


      • Hi Martin, yep your posts/input really is appreciated and brings a different view to the blog. You along with plenty of other contributors make the blog a much more enriching experience. I think we will all owe you a drink at some point! Look forward to the next 16/1+ winner!

        Josh 30/10/16 11:40 AM Reply


  • Hi Mike,
    Like yourself I’ve been dipping into the free blog for a while now with mixed results but it Has changed my approach to betting. I’ve been gearing up for the NH season with the intention of being at the pc every race day til end of April. Famous last words and all that, somthing will crop up that pulls me away at the worst possible time but I am hopeful I’ll be able to recoup any losses if I’m on a bad run at the time.
    The free blog I use more for looking for an IN but have been following Josh’s Sep/Oct trainers to the rules and to 24/10 I am up 41pts. There will be a small loss this week but not done my figures yet. No doubt that figure won’t tally with anybody else cos of different times of placing bet and bog and of course which bookies you still have access to. I am only left with PP,Fred and Coral. All the rest are closed or severely restricted.

    Now TTP stats I have followed blind since 11/10 at a pt plus a half for each qualification eg I had 1.5 pts on SdR @ 7/2 and 1pt on Antony @ 14’s. At end of 23/10 my bank was up 25.86 pts and off the top of my head down about 12 pts the last 6 days. Tomorrow (my week end) might be a good day and clear the losses. If not I’m still up for the month and I always shied away from early jumps cos I only ever heard people complain about October before this blog.

    another Mike lol

    titus_a_duxass 29/10/16 8:13 PM Reply


    • Thanks Mike- sounds like you have found an approach that is working for you, that you are comfortable with etc so that sounds good. As always with a stats approach there will be peaks and troughs but fingers crossed over time we make good profits. If TTP can make 10-20 points per month, whatever your approach, that would be a decent return over the course of the season. We only need each track to average 3 points profit or so to make +100 over the season. Hopefully that will be achievable in a worst case – 1 point on everything- scenario. Time will tell.

      Josh 30/10/16 11:45 AM Reply


    • Just a quick addendum re closed a/c’s. Hopefully it may help others keep theirs.

      I used to only bet big odds e/w with a decent win success rate which was the main reason for the closures but the odd foolish withdrawal didn’t help either. I had 14 a/c’s so was able to spread my bets around and I naively thought I wouldn’t have any problems. I lost 9 and was severely restricted on 2 others ( max 99p winnings on 1, whats the point of that, and max £1 stake and no e/w with other. Another restricted me to win only but will now allow the odd e/w for modest stakes. Only one gave me warning of closure and the replies from the rest asking why were not worth reading. This happened within a very small timeframe. Why? I did a little investigating online and found out about something all the bookies used called iesnare. This pernicious little app tracks all activity for the bookies and can be shared.

      So after a miserable few weeks of train journeys along the M62 corridor from Manchester to York and all towns in between trying to keep a low profile in high st bookies I admitted to myself something had to change. I stopped betting and began to look at changing what and how I bet. I tried niche markets in cricket, tennis, golf etc with little success. Racing is what I enjoyed and my approach to it had to change. Thankfully I found my way to this blog a few months ago and absorbed a lot of good info from Josh and some generous contributors.

      Most of my bets are win only now and oft times at single figure odds which helps keep my head below the parapet. I no longer withdraw large sums and there are a few newer online bookies which I haven’t used yet so I can spread my bets a little better than at present.

      I doubt there is any way to stop an a/c being closed if you appear on the radar but one thing that will help is minimising the effect of iesnare. It comes in other guises ie mnsnare but snare is usually there. THIS APP REQUIRES ‘FLASH’ SO REFUSE ACCESS TO FLASH ON ALL BETTING SITES. Refusing flash won’t affect putting bets on but may hinder withdrawals with some bookies. If that is the case then use your mobile to withdraw.

      titus_a_duxass 30/10/16 12:36 PM Reply


      • Thanks Titus. Useful tips on avoiding restrictions, I just wish I could use bet365 everytime, still give me BOG, now BOG +1, took 0.5 point EW on Carrighoun at 8/1, BOG +1 to 14/1. Happy days & they still give me offers of £10 occasionally, strange how they selectively restrict different people, I can’t use Betfred, PP or Ladbrokes anymore. I will only withdraw £75 at a time, BTW currently in Spain this week, using Tunnelbear to access their websites, just feel small satisfaction getting one over them!

        David 30/10/16 5:39 PM Reply


  • I’ve been reading Josh”s blog for a couple of years, I have confidence we will see a respectable profit over the winter months (not so sure about the summer on the flat tho). Anyway I’m not very good at picking horses but the stats and systems I like a lot, well enough to part with my money for access

    James b 30/10/16 12:07 AM Reply


    • Thanks James, glad you are still around after 2 years 🙂 I am confident I will get it right with the chasers, maybe I need some rain! My form on good ground has been much worse than soft/heavy – so work to do there. Yep, I am not sure on the summer months as yet!! – certainly on the tipping front. There are options for next summer including summer jumps, and a stats approach to the flat – the ‘big meeting positive pointers’ etc.
      Thankfully the stats/systems have been doing ok in recent weeks and hopefully it continues. Your support always appreciated.
      Josh

      Josh 30/10/16 11:52 AM Reply


  • i tend to prefer the mid week racing to bet on, as i find all too often there are too many bets in one race on Saturdays if you follow the selections on here.
    Take yesterdays 3.35 Ascot for example, the TTP had 4 selections ( Saphir du Rheu,Voix d’eau,Killala Quay,and Anthony WON). The analysis Josh did on the trends of the race threw up a further 2 (Killala Quay, and UnAce i believe), then theres the Oct trainer (Junction Fourteen) and finally the 2 tips (A good skin and Buckthorn Timothy) That covers 8 of the 12 runners! I’m not having a go at this blog as i think the content is first class, but i would get irritated if you advertise how you managed to find a 14/1 winner of the big race on Saturday!

    jamesm 30/10/16 1:21 PM Reply


    • Hi James…firstly there wont be any advertising of me finding a 14/1 winner of that race- the write up/tips are evidence that I clearly didn’t – but… the TTP stats did find that winner, and that’s good for their record moving forward. And many will have backed him, ignoring me. But many will have not, having taken my guidance which was off on that race.

      Agree there were plenty of angles in with that race but that is a question of how you approach it… you could leave the race, pick out a couple you liked, followed the tips etc. The stats/trends again are a bit subjective as different people will pick out what is important to them- i focused on the weight stats, which in part led to my downfall. The two tips were my judgement- the rest were driven by the stats- I can’t really pick and chose which ‘system’ qualifiers I post up! That was one of those races. It was my job to sort through that pile and I didn’t do a very good job! Some may have just backed all the 4 from TTP and made +11 points on the race maybe.

      I agree Saturdays can be tricky with given number of meetings and field sizes etc- not sure what the answer is to that, bar trying to find enough to leave alone and hoping not to miss the winners in future.

      If you do ever get irritated with anything I say, do let me know. That is never my intention and I try to be as open and honest as is possible.
      Josh

      Josh 30/10/16 1:39 PM Reply


  • josh
    i dont contribute a lot due to myself working 6 days a week which hopefully will end next March.what i will say is that you put an awful lot of work into this website which i think
    everyone appreciates and also a lot of information tips etc given by the other members.
    On a personal note i think you do a lot better with your NH than the FLAT. The other thing is when you do your write up on a tipping race the WINNER is always in the anything category if not in your main selections.

    Keep the faith because you know your going to come good very soon.
    LOVE THE SITE

    Steve

    yourifc 30/10/16 1:52 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve, appreciated. Yep I dont think there will be an ‘official’ tipping on the flat next year! Some work to do there but will be enough to get stuck into- I may take the summer jumps TTP more seriously and work on a very focused flat version we can track also. I wanted to get to grips with the sprint handicaps but in truth I found them mentally draining – looking after them day after day was tough- would like to crack them but needs a different approach where hours not needed studying – could be an approach to tracking ‘eye catchers’ and doing more on the race watching front etc.
      Jumps- I haven’t been reading the chases too badly – the odd howler (carlisle/ascot yesterday), but in general been running well- but the losers are racking up. Antony was in my ‘shotrlist’ of 6- and I was dogmatic that I didn’t want to be with top 2 in weights- that means from a shortlist of 4 I have backed 2, not including the winner – doh! Given he and Buckhorn Timothy were the two at double figure odds- maybe that was the error. His price allowing the chance to be taken on the odd question mark I had – putting eggs ‘all in’ on the ‘been there and done it horses in conditions’ may have been an error. Always plenty to ponder. When the ground softens and there are not as many fitness questions we will hopefully get back on the winning trail. If i can get the shortlisting right, we will do fine in time.
      Josh

      Josh 30/10/16 2:11 PM Reply


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