Venetia Williams -Let’s Pay For Christmas…

Well it’s that time of year again to dust off what has been a trusty micro system over the last few seasons.

My Venetia Willaims micro system has been so successful that you have to think it will come to a juddering halt at some point.

The lack of rain concerns me- not for the system rules- as you will see the record on Good/Good to Soft is just fine- more so I don’t know how she trains them at home to get them fit but am sure turning them out in deep muddy fields is part of the routine- and as for most trainers so is working horses on grass. The ground may have been too firm for such work. So, there is some caution. Venetia’s are usually ‘race fit’ having not been on a race track for at least 90 days. Fingers crossed it is the same again…

So, the rather simple system..

VENETIA WILLIAMS 

  • Venetia Williams 
  • November (check back end of October) 
  • Handicap Chase / Novice Handicap Chase / Beginners Chase
  • Horse Runs Last 90 Days: NOT 1 Only (so 0 or 2+) 
  • 16/1 or shorter (guide) 

 

Results…

v-williams-graph

Some points to note: –

  • I have added in Beginner Chases…they are 2/13,8 places…+8 SP under the same rules and given those place stats we may as well throw them in!
  • Those going off OVER 16/1 SP are currently 0/18, 2 places. One may go in at some point and all are worth a second glance, but the market has been some guide. 
  • 1 Run In 90 Days: Under the same rules, those that had just 1 run in the last 90 days (so most likely second run after seasonal debut most) are 6/63, 19 places… 9% win SR / -22 SP / AE 0.51…performing 49% below market expectations. There is some logic to this – mainly that the majority are usually ready to go first time up- and they do not come on for just the one run. They are primed to strike first time up. Those that are not may need a few runs to get going or just maintain their form…those with 2+ runs last 90 days being… 7/16,12 places… +23 SP. 
  • Going… there is much talk of Williams loving the mud. The heavier the better. That is certainly true but you can’t make money just backing those types sadly. I am sure there may be a way and that is another area for me to dive into no doubt! BUT, in November it doesn’t really matter as to the going… on Good/Good to Soft, same rules… 14/50,25 places… +62 SP. Nothing to worry about there. We just have to trust Venetia when she places them as to whether they will handle it. 

 

 

OCTOBER… Well this weekend is one Venetia has had winners at before, including a 14/1 winner last year – it is pretty much November after all. I will post up any that qualify in the next few days. In previous years she has had on average 5-7 runners in October under the rules above- as yet she hasn’t had any I don’t believe. Being quiet before November is not unusual but maybe some more caution than usual, I am not sure.

Other Months… in DECEMBER with the same rules… 25/199,54 places… +17 SP. I will have a look to see if any more ways in for December. I am minded not to play around with the rules as above given there simply is no reason to at this stage.

ALL other months, under the same rules, as a comparison…(ie not November or December):

716 bets / 101 wins / 250 places / 14% win SR / -230 SP / AE 0.81

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So, that’s it really. Many of us had a right good time of it last November. Many of hers get well backed and taking earlier prices can improve on those figures. Hopefully an exciting 4/5 weeks ahead.

 

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DAVID PIPE

There is one more trainer I want to keep an eye on this November and that is David Pipe. I tracked this micro angle on the blog last year without much success I think. His runners last November didn’t really perform but it is usually a good month for him- when he really starts to get going. IF that was an anomaly and it is back to normal here, this angle could be fun to follow in the coming weeks…

  • David Pipe
  • November 
  • Handicap Hurdles
  • Horse Runs 90 Days: NONE 

14/1 or under SP…

pipe-1

 

Any odds…

67 bets / 15 win / 24 places / 22% sr / +88 SP / +115 BFSP / AE 1.71

In the last three seasons, 13/14/15 Pipe has been 1/7,3 places with those going off over 14/1, including one 40/1 whopper. So, the bigger ones are worth a second glance. As you can see he has the odd quiet year with this approach but with any luck he can repeat one of 2011,13 or 14! Well worth keeping an eye on, and if he has a bad year hopefully it won’t be too expensive to follow. His yard has had a few winners recently without firing on all cylinders.

 

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I hope you have enjoyed this post. As always if you have any questions etc then ask away.

And if you don’t mind using the share buttons below that would be great also 🙂

Cheers

Josh

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

9 Comments

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  • I’m doing a little rain dance for November already.

    Steve Mullington (@mulldog) 4 months ago Reply


    • indeed. Any thoughts on that theory as to her training approach? My fear is that they may need the run this year as it has been unusually dry? It may be that they are best following on second start!! We shall see. Fingers crossed. She will be dancing as well no doubt. Liverpool being drenched at the moment anyway.

      Josh 4 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Venita Williams Horse runs last 90 days not 1 only so 0 or 2 +
    David Pipe Horse runs 90 day none
    Could you please explain what the above means
    Thanks
    Colin

    colin leafe 4 months ago Reply


    • Hi Colin,
      firstly,I will be posting all qualifiers on the free posts so fingers crossed no danger of missing any.

      The rules- 90 days, it is just looking at fitness. So, the majority of these qualify as having had 0 or NO runs in the previous 90 days (or three months if you will), so it will be at least 91 days I suppose since their last start on a racetrack.

      NOT 1, means we want to avoid all those that have had only 1 run in the last 90 days, and are therefore now having their second start in the last 90 days. Hers simply don’t come on for the run, or haven’t done in a way where we can make profit. BUT, she does have winners that have had 2 runs or more in the last 90 days, so this will be their 3rd start or more in the last 90 days- it suggests these ones improve for racing or take a bit longer to get going/may be a plan not to have them ready first time up, after 90 day break.

      Does that make sense, or have I made it as clear as mud, which I have a habit of doing?
      Josh

      Josh 4 months ago Reply


      • Yes it does make sense but will stick with your posts
        but thanks for your response
        Cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 4 months ago Reply


        • Yep rules like that are hard to follow if you dont have HorseRaceBase or system building software etc, which is why I post them up to save you all the hassle.

          Josh 4 months ago Reply


  • I seem to remember comments in the racing press about it been an unusually dry autumn last year and the year before so I wouldn’t let that put me off. Personally I always look for Liam Treadwell riding for Venetia so would be interested in knowing weather he or Coleman do best following the above rules. Never really been a fan of Coleman but he has improved last couple of years so credit where it’s due.
    I could go on a rant about the low standard of jockeys nowadays, especially on the flat, but having turned 50 I’m not sure if it’s just nostalgia for the old days or weather I’m just becoming a grumpy old sod.

    Karl 4 months ago Reply


    • Hi Karl, yep you may be right. Until proven otherwise I will trust the stats as have done well last couple of years.

      Jockeys, yep they are the main two and you want to be following both…Treadwell’s stats are better from more limited opps…
      Within the rules above…

      Coleman: 24/80,34 places..30% sr, +105 SP

      Treadwell: 14/34,17 places…41% sr, +67 SP

      Josh 4 months ago Reply


      • Thanks Josh, will follow both jockeys then.
        Maybe have a little bit more on Liams when I really fancy it. The trouble with doing the rain dance is that know one seems to be able to do a dance to turn it off again once it’s started lol. Good luck all with your bets today

        Karl 4 months ago Reply


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