TTP Jumps Notes; SAT 29/10/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: I plan to find some trends for the 3m handicap chase at Ascot and will get that done Friday afternoon, for anyone interested.

Well a potentially busy day ahead and I am quite pleased that I don’t believe there are any qualifiers at WETHERBY. They only have one ‘normal’ (not novice) handicap on the card and that is the last, and there is nothing there.

Given the seven races to look at between Ascot and Ayr that is no bad thing…

 

ASCOT 

2.25

Ulck Du Lin (all hncps + hncp c) UP

NOTE: Nicholls in superb form- 14/30,19 places last 14 days. I think he may have won this race in 2014, and was pulled up in it last year. Won this on seasonal reappearance in 2014 so can win after a break.

Germany Calling (hncp c) UP

NOTE: Longsdon in form, 6/25,12 places last 14 days. Horse is 0/4,0 places in C1 races to date.

 

3.00

Diego Du Charmil (all hncps) UP

Modus (all hncps) 3rd 12/1>6/1

NOTE: Both Nicholls, form stats as above. I assume Schofield may have had the choice here. His certainly has less to prove than his stablemate albeit both still unexposed.

Hint of Mint (all hncps + hncp h) UP

NOTE: Trainer is 2/11,5 places in the last 14 days. Horse returns after 602 days so market prominence looks of some interest. Trainer 10/55,25 places with handicap hurdlers 60+ days rest.

Sternrubin (hncp h) WON 7/1>12/1 SP

NOTE: Hobbs going ok without being red hot…7/37,13 places last 14 days. 2/5,3 places at track handicap hurdlers 60+ days, and horse has ok record after a break.

 

3.35

Saphir Du Rheu (all hncp + hncp c) 3rd

Voix D’eau (all hncps) UP

Killala Quay (hncp c) UP

Antony (hncp c) WON 12/1 > 11/1

NOTE: On all…I have looked at this race in the free post and am not tipping any of them – which may well increase their chance! SDR is too short for me at 3s, 11/4 as I do think he has questions to answer, albeit could outclass these and make that look an ok price. Voix- has stamina uncertainties for me, albeit out of all of these 4 he would be the most likely one for me at the prices. If he stays, he would have a say. Falls down on some weight trends. The other two may not stay, KQ has form/wellbeing questions, Anthony didn’t jump that well the last day and is very inexperienced for a test like this. Very unexposed though.

 

5.20

Aint No Limits (NHF trainer) UP

NOTE: Longsdon in form, 6/25,12 places last 14 days. Horse ran respectably on debut. Looks a decent little race.

 

***

AYR

2.35

Jet Master (micro, class) 2nd 8/1

NOTE: trainer 0/10,0 places last 30 days.

Presenting Rose (micro class) UP

NOTE: same as above. Trainer 8/62,14 places handicap hurdlers 60+ days off.

Malin Bay (micro, runs this season) Fell

NOTE: Trainer 2/11,5 places last 14 days all runners.

 

3.10

Willie Hall (hncp c) UP

NOTE: trainer 0/11,2 places last 14 days.

 

4.55

Work in Progress (hncp h) UP

NOTE: trainer 5/30,14 places last 14 days. Handicap hurdlers are 21/104,42 places after 60+ days off. Can ready them is desirable.

Mardale (micro, runs this season) UP

NOTE: Richards stats as above.

 

5.30 Ayr 

Alizee De Janeiro – now this one makes ‘handicap chase’ debut in terms of HorseRaceBase definition (not a novice handicap etc) of the rules- and Russell is one to follow here with handicap chase debutants here. I don’t think he technically qualifies as I have looked in my HRB account and as the rules are I think it would count his last run in a novice handicap chase as being a run in a chase that is a handicap- and as such he isn’t making his handicap chase debut here. I think. We are dealing with small numbers and I won’t count him in the qualifiers. He does step up in trip for a trainer threatening to come into form.

***

My View: This looks a tough punting Saturday. I will just stick with those I will be definitley leaving and we shall see if I get that right. As always use these subjective views as you please- if  in doubt, trust the stats.

Germany Calling – I am not convinced he is good enough for this level or has the level of form – that was a very weak race he won LTO and he did so being able to dictate from the front- he still looked tricky at times. Not for me.

3.00- modus – I would want to see some market support – some in here have much stronger form and he was badly out of form when last seen. He will be better than that at some point no doubt but watching brief for me now. Sternrubin- I think I will leave him also as he comes here after the break and isn’t now open to as much progress as some of these- albeit only 5 still. The handicapper may well have him- he is a tough and admirable horse though. The Nicholls horse would be my own preference in that race- the long break concerns me for Fry and I may want a bigger price undecided as yet- market should help guide as to his fitness.

3.35 – I am leaving the lot. SDR ‘could’ outclass these but 3s or shorter is too short for me. Given all the talk etc my instinct is starting to say we may see something decent from this classy type here, but I can’t have him. I wont be shocked if Fry’s wins but there is a stamina Q. I really can’t have the other two based on my own approach to those race types.

Over to Ayr…

Not sure if you could rule out many here with total confidence. The market may guide for Presenting Rose and there is a fitness question there. At this stage happy to leave. Jet Master- I am never a fan of expecting older horses to do something different and he looks a 16f horse, this 21f may stretch him. Hasn’t tried it many times and maybe as he gets older its what he wants. At least he is in form. Bit undecided but edging towards leaving.

To my eye the rest can be given a squeak- I am not sure Mardale is up to C2 but that is somewhat an unknown as yet, still lightly enough raced i suppose. Willie Hall is interesting – I wont be going mad on the 12yo but he has run well after a PU before and fact he returns within 7 days could suggest that run over hurdles was to blow the cobwebs away. I wouldnt be confident saying he cant win this/will struggle.

At this stage I think I will definitely be leaving 8 of them. 4 weeks in I am yet to have a total clanger of a day with horses I am leaving and am ahead on that score, hopefully I can keep that up here but I dare say something may leave me with egg on my face.

Good luck with whatever you play.

Josh

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