none. The 4.30 looked of some interest but it is moderate fair where you would have to give excuses to plenty I think. My tips are running ok on the whole without ending the losing sequence. I will leave this one alone.
2.35 Uttox – One Forty Seven 2nd (demoted)
Dead Heat 7/1 (3.5/1) (1 run last 90 days, also qualifies on non-hncp hurdle micro)
4.20 Uttox – Muckle Roe (1 run 90 days positive)
2.10 Weth – Scotchtown WON 7/1>10/3 (1 run 90 days, also qualifies on non-hncp hurdle micro)
2.45 Weth – Robinshill DNQ WON 10/1>9/2 (no ticks, does not qualify against my notes)
4.30 Weth – Mister Don DNQ 2nd (does not qualify against my notes)
2.35 Uttox – Chelsea Flyer UP 4/1>7/4 (October runner, 1-5 career runs positive)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio
2.45 Weth – Today Please 3rd 9/2>9/4 (improve forlast run/still fresh)
3.20 Weth – Indian Stream WON 5/1>7/2 (2nd run after break)
4.20 Uttox- Lemons Gent (as above) UP 16/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
I think for the time being I am going to focus on two areas in this section, moving forwards. A) Pace angles over fences- much like with Owen Na View, trying to identify any chasers who could get an easy lead and stay there- and B) handicap hurdle debutants. – the latter is part inspired by Ms Leech having it ‘right off’ at Fakenham with one a couple days back. For many it left a sour taste- it is a topic for another day, a video>an opinion piece, but me and it seems about 6 others had a frank discussion on twitter, all very civil. Opinions differed. She played the system to get a mark, the first question, without looking at the morality, was- can we as punters have spotted that winner. Backed from 25s>6s, hacked up. Well the horse was making handicap debut and stepping up in trip by 4f. It was a small field, poor quality handicap. They were the two signs, and the fact it travelled well to 3 from home on his last start in novice hurdles where it got its mark. Some suggested it was ‘stopped’ in that race- in truth I have yet to watch the video again which I should do. Could it have finished closer to the winner in that novice hurdle- probably. That may be the issue and this was an extreme case of a horse having no form whatsoever and then winning. The general point being – that in novice/maiden hurdles many are running to get a handicap mark and are not there to show their best. Some undoubtedly could win if the handbrake was let off, many are simply running over the wrong trip,wrong ground,may not be fit enough,are gaining experience. Micro Angle 5 of the handicap hurdle portfolio looks at trainers who do well with unexposed handicap hurdlers. Whether we like that system or not, at the moment that is the reality. As punters we can engage with it or not- and many will simply leave low grade handicap hurdles for that reason, which is fair enough. I haven’t truly figured out what I think to that system but its reality at the moment,and I like trying to solve the puzzle. It is a topic which divides opinion. SO, let’s see, if over the coming weeks, we can find a few biggies. Starting with… (you may wish to track these etc, use the info as you please)
5.00 Wetherby – IMPROVED- 12/1…(UP, appears he could just not be very good at the moment, poor run and was nibbled at. Poor start for the ‘test’ onwards) it could be, as we move forward, that the market is a real indication with these types. This one makes handicap hurdle debut for a trainer who won this very race last year- he has three in this and I think jockey booking suggests this is the one- it is eye catching to me that he has one of the most experienced conditionals in the race on this ones back. There won’t be many excuses from the saddle I don’t think. So, on its 4th and 3rd start ago the horse showed it did at least have some ability. It also won its first start in a NHF race. SO, at some point this horse will show more and he should be winning a weak handicap hurdle somewhere. One to keep an eye on maybe. The run two starts ago was probably over too far, but ran well for long enough. The last run- that was his seasonal reappearance. He could have needed the run there and in any case, probably wasn’t there to run his best. He gets in off a low mark here. Now, there isn’t a move in trip which I like to see, but it is his second start after a break and what with the trainer record in the race, jockey booking, there was enough there. The aim is to try and find those at an EW price I suppose. The market may well guide as to this one’s chance but you would like to see an improved effort from him here. Let’s see…
That is all today.
VENETIA WILLIAMS…. I will post up our trusty VW system which has served this blog well in the past two Novembers- very well indeed. And, as Gerry points out below, she normally has a winner at the end of October, at Ascot, before really firing. I will post up the rules/have another delve into it etc.
That is all for today.