TTP Jumps Notes: 27/10/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: Stratford is a ‘summer jumping’ track and is not covered in my TTP guide.

 

SEDGEFIELD 

3.35

Sun Cloud (all hncps) UP 9/2>7/2 (didn’t go much of a pace to my eye and he stays on at the one pace,got 4th but never nearer)

NOTE: A trainer couldn’t be in better form than Jefferson really, 6/11,9 places last 14 days. This one shouldn’t be found wanting for stamina and a lot of Jefferson’s have been coming on for the run. (BallyBen sticks in my mind, not sure why!)

 

4.40

Killecrankie (all hncps) UP 12/1>7/1 – ‘odd’ ride, somewhat scorched away and ultimately tired a long way out which wasn’t a great shock given tactics.

NOTE: Slack 2/9,2 places last 30 days. They are going ok, 1/3,1 place last 14 days. Horse is 0/5,0 places in career to date. Trainer is 2/23,8 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off. Given profile (yet to do much,long time off) maybe the market may guide.

Strait Run (micros class+age) UP

NOTE: Hammond only 1/21,1 places the last 14 days. Horse 0/12,2 places over hurdles. Trainer only 2/36,10 places with handicap hurdlers after 60+ days off. Again can ready them but hard to find generally. Jockey is 0/17,2 places in career to date.

 

5.10

Vic’s Last Stand (all hncps+hncp hurdle) 2nd 4/1>11/4

NOTE: trainer 1/4,2 places last 14 days. Horse couldn’t be in better form and I would be cautious as to saying the handicapper has got him – not proven just yet for me.

Ethelwyn (all hncps) UP

NOTE: Jefferson again, trainer form stats as above.

Discoverie (all hncps) UP 9/1>22/1

NOTE: Slack again, same stats as with previous runner apply, including rest. Horse has run well after breaks though, including once for this trainer, a closing second here.

Russian Royale (micro – age) UP

NOTE: Hammond again. J Wright is the jockey, he must go far! 🙂

 

**

 

MY VIEW:

Given the profiles of all of these horses you couldn’t be confident in ruling out any of them totally, but at this stage… the Hammond horses look up against it- they haven’t done much recently and I would want to see market support. I think I am happy to leave Strait Run and Russian Royale. Albeit these stats are going to throw up a biggie one day I suspect. I would be surprised if it were one of these two but you never know.

The rest look interesting. Sun Cloud looks to have a solid chance to my eye and I see no reason not to support him to some extent.

The market at this time , 9am, suggests a bit of support for Killercrankie- he is doing a few things differently here- after a break, 1st time tongue tie, drop in trip on better ground- all reasons why he may leave previous form behind. An EW nibble I suspect.

5.10 looks interesting – if the Mulholland horse turns up in same moods as at Chepstow then he could be very hard to beat here. Vics Last Stand looks the pick from those above given he keeps running so well- albeit that run will come to an end at some point. The Jefferson horse needs to show more and if I back him it will only be a saver I think- would like to think there are a handful of better horses in here, inc the fav and Vics – if they run their races he should struggle, but his horses can’t be going any better. I may want to see signs of life in the market for the other two in that race, an eye on Discoverie.

***

Good luck with whatever you back…

Maybe another POLL…

Who Do We Most Like Today (2 max)

  • Sun Cloud (55%, 16 Votes)
  • Killiecrankie (14%, 4 Votes)
  • Strait Run (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Vics Last Stand (10%, 3 Votes)
  • Ethelwyn (3%, 1 Votes)
  • Discoverie (10%, 3 Votes)
  • Russian Royale (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Will leave the lot today... (7%, 2 Votes)

Total Voters: 22

 

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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