RESULTS: I have updated results for end week 4, based on 1 point win if just backing all selections systematically… read that post/report HERE>>>
ADDITION TO 4.35… getting into habit of checking once in evening and once in morning for fear of missing one…and looks like I have from last night so apoligies.
Qualifiers + notes + my view…
Thunder Pass (hncp hurdles) UP 4/1>7/1
NOTE: Pipes’ going OK without being ‘in form’ (geegeez metrics,20%+ win SR, 51%+ win/place sr) 2/12,3 places last 14 days. This one makes handicap debut and in NH racing he isn’t that prolific with such types. 2/29,6 places last year, 8/87,28 places last two years. Interestingly he is 2/7,3 places at Chepstow last 5 years with handicap debutants be it over hurdles or fences. He is unexposed, cheekpieces back on and in theory more to come at some point if there is any ability.
Keep It Up Keira (all hncps) UP 7/1
NOTE: trainer in form last 30 days, 10/47,18 places. 4/41, 13 places with handicap debutants last 2 years, far from prolific but odd one goes in. He is 15/177,34 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off. This horse in the could be anything mould – ahead of mark, not very good etc. Market may offer some guidance. Impossible to say he doesn’t have some sort of chance.
Earls Fort (all hncps) WON 5/2 (big R4) > 1.375/1
NOTE: trainer in form last 30 days, 10/47,18 places. 4/25,12 places last 14 days.
Shantou Tiger DNQ WON (micro, going only IF SOFT)
(this angle tries to highlight those trainer’s whose horses go well when the surface is extreme- tried to find soft/heavy ground specialists predominantly- horse officially only qualifies if going is soft on this occasion – albeit any cut may actually inconvenience this ones chance)
NOTE: unlikely to be soft if weather forecast correct. As such won’t officially ‘qualify’ regardless of what he does.
Royal Plaza (all hncps) 2nd 10/3>9/4 (jockey may do that a bit different if had time again but entitled to be learning,went for home long way out)
NOTE: trainer in form, 5/25, 12 places last 14 days. Horse 0/9,5 places in career. Could be getting better as gets experience, looks like he raced keenly again LTO (hence the hood I assume) – maybe the number of placed efforts is due to having used up too much energy which pays in his finishing effort. Unsure. But, still time in his side and repeat of last run should put him thereabouts you would think.
Minella Fiveo (hncp hurdles) UP 10/1>20/1 (drift said it all)
NOTE: Smith not had many runners in recent months, but now 1/7 last 14 days. Trainer ‘only’ 7/107,26 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days. She is 7/79,17 places with handicap hurdlers returning more than 365 days off. So, she can ready them, just hard to find. Market may guide as to how ready he is, lightly enough raced for his age. 2/12 over hurdles.
Danceintothelight DNQ (micro, going, again only IF SOFT)
NOTE: As with McCains earlier, unlikely to officially qualify on this angle.
Am I happy to leave any at this stage…. well, on paper there are no reasons you would want to leave any of these well lone. The market suggests that three of these have strong chances. I think I would want to see some signs of market life in the Sue Smith runner given the lengthy break but he could be a decent price and she can ready them.
ANONYMOUS POLL (will close around 1pm)
Which Ones Are We Backing? (2 max)
- Thunder Pass (16%, 5 Votes)
- Earls Fort (16%, 5 Votes)
- Royal Plaza (26%, 8 Votes)
- Minella Fiveo (6%, 2 Votes)
- May have a nibble on all of them (16%, 5 Votes)
- None, will leave the lot (19%, 6 Votes)
Total Voters: 31
My aim is to try and make these blog posts as worthwhile as possible. One of you has emailed in asking if I could put a recommended stake amount next to the horse. I am minded not to do that at the moment as I don’t want it to feel like ‘tipping’. I say that as first and foremost the stats are judged on on how they perform systematically. In part this approach is meant to remove too much subjective judgement (which will differ for us all, including what may be ‘value’)
I am comfortable highlighting those I won’t be having anything on and I will try and ensure my descriptions of those are as clear as possible. I will get these wrong sometimes, as I did with three last week. Those that I am backing with my own money will invariably have at least 1/2 point on usually, through to 1 point in most cases. But, take Troika Steppes. I personally had 1/2 point on EW, one of you had 2 points on the nose. We will all have different results and figures no doubt and to an extent this ‘service’/approach is meant to provide a starting point for your own punting, highlighting horses of interest.
But, as always I am happy to take on board any further feedback/recommendations for improvement.