FREE DAILY POST: 25/10/16 (COMPLETE)

 

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There is a TTP Results post available for all to read HERE>>>

It has been a good 4 weeks and on Monday’s post three races were covered, 5 horses, 2 winners at 6/1 and 9/2, another +7.5 points to the pot if having 1 point on each.

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TIPS

none.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

no qualifiers on any of angles.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Well none of that went that well…

  • Rebecca Curtis Tuesday??… a couple of things caught the eye today which I thought I would highlight. Firstly, the 2pm Chepstow…HIGHWAY STORM 7/2(3rd – a decent enough run, he was staying on again at the end, suggests he was fit, jumped well on the whole. Interesting when gets really testing and could be a real stayer in the making. Looked bit inexperienced under pressure as well…) I look at chases with the geegeez pace tab to see if there are any front runners it may be worth siding with, as we did with Owen Na View the other week and that could be a fun approach for this section moving forward. This former point winner makes his chase debut having led on his last start over hurdles. The other Curtis horse also led in that sphere and on what many of these have done to date, they are the only pace way in. Given he has some experience over fences (points) I hope they try and make all again here, using his stamina. If he lines up I will trust that connections think the ground is fine. Curtis is 3/15,4 places at the track with handicap chasers 60+ days off. She is 7/25,14 places in handicaps with Tom Scu up- 5/20,7 places in handicap chases and 2/4,2 places at Chepstow in handicap chases. That booking suggests this one is here to run well. I have also just checked Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow book and this horse is one of the 6 highlighted in the ‘around the yards’ bit – that could be some positive at least. Maybe he wants a bog but if he jumps out here, measures his fences, and gets them on the stretch, that could be that. There may be too many iffs for a 7/2 shot I am unsure, but interesting to watch….BUT ALSO….
  • …Bangor…the fact Jonathon Moore isn’t on him caught my eye- where is he?…I wonder if they thought the Nicholls horse would be hard to beat in the race above (now a NR) so they sent him to Bangor. That could be a tip in itself maybe? Captain McGinley (UP ran no sort of race) in 3.15 seems to be well fancied, and there is also one in the bumper. A Highway Storm /Captain McGinley ‘nothing much happening on a Tuesday muggy double’ maybe 🙂 
  • 3.45 Bangor… SWALEDALE LAD…11/2(UP 10/3- backed,travelled well, wonder if pressed gas too much to early as faded very quickly having led turning for home- will see who put in saddle next time- moderate level but expected more. He must have known I ‘could’ have tipped him! Got taken on which I didn’t really expect, race went to the closers) looks like an EW stab to me in this… PACE again caught the eye- he is a prominent racer and is the only horse to have led on any recent runs. This jockey has been seen to good enough effect a few times over fences (a few at Hexam stick in the mind) and I hope she tries to make all and jump them silly here. The horse? Well he returned to fences the last day after a while and ran well enough, this drop back in trip should suit. He is 2/15,8 places over fences and looking through his form catches the eye also…. In Feb 2015 he came a 1/2 L second in a C3 handicap chase at Muss off a mark of 130! With the jockey claim he is off 98 here. Before the last run he had only been over fences 4 times since, all at C3 level. That run the last day showed he had enough enthusiasm for fences still and he was leading 2 out there over 19f. If I hadn’t have been so eager and put ‘none’ in the Tips above I may have convinced myself to put this one up there. (cue hitting the lay button!) The trainer is 3/5,4 places in handicap chases at the track also. I will be having 1/2 point EW on this one…there are a couple to fear but if I have this right he could try and jump these silly from the front. Clearly he isn’t as good as he used to be but looks good at the prices to my eye in this race. The Elliot horse is to be feared but I wouldn’t touch him at that price. Interesting.

 

That will do for today.

Post complete.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Harry Whittington not exactly that hot formwise,but on a day where there is little value around I will be betting on Star Tackle 14/1 in the 1.30 Chepstow,has at least some winning form in ptp

    gearoid180468 24/10/16 10:18 PM Reply


    • Yes. Agree. Have this one in a tracker as reported to have physically improved immensely. No doubt took it from one of the several horses in training books/quotes. 14s EW looks like value. Will probably save on Copain de Claisse – a ‘dark’ horse for Nicholls.

      JV 24/10/16 10:29 PM Reply


    • Yeah I am on that as well although given the absolutely horrible place terms (1/5 3 places with 16 runners) have gone win only since its a horrible e/w bet. He is 2/4, 4 places with hurdlers at the track in the past 5 years and 4/9, 7 places overall so doesnt send many here.

      Nick Mazur 24/10/16 11:51 PM Reply


  • Pyrshan is worth a ew in the 3.05 Chepstow. Popped up in my hrb from a system for G McPherson lol

    James b 24/10/16 10:50 PM Reply


    • Same! G McPherson is a handicap hero! I expect a few more winners at a monster price this season

      aallen 24/10/16 10:55 PM Reply


    • hi James
      an interesting trainer for the Nat Hunt season, has dabbles with Flat & All Weather with a couple of winners but with P/L poor but certainly a trainer to follow in the winter….looks to rest his horses through April & May but he can definitely put 50/1 winners together…..can you offer any suggestions for possible filters ?

      norman 25/10/16 10:03 AM Reply


      • Hi Norman, am sure the chaps above will share their angle. I have discussed him on the blog before, a long time ago.. I think the following angle is one I looked at but could do more work on his stats…
        National Hunt Handicaps
        Horse Runs 90 Days: 0 or 1
        Horse Runs In Handicap Race Type (hurdles or chases): 0 or 1

        (so, fairly fresh, more unexposed)

        Since 2010…
        73 bets / 16 wins / 24 places / 22% win sr / +174 SP / +220 BFSP / AE 2.17

        Has the odd monster one drop in. 8/39,12 places…+63 SP since start 2014 albeit most of that profit in 2014, 1/4,2 places, +7 SP this year.

        Josh

        Josh 25/10/16 10:27 AM Reply


        • Mine is basically Josh’s system but instead of h-run 90 days I’ve got h-win days bracket 0-1, class move same or up 1, class 2/3/4. Think if I remember right I used Josh”s original mcpherson system as a starting point, also I found last year that it’s an ew system but to make sure to get evening prices as the ones that placed went off much shorter!

          James b 25/10/16 5:38 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    thanks for the update……he certainly appears to need a closer look considering his P/L figures

    I keep meaning to ask Blog readers and yourself……but have you done any research into the ratings in HRB….I know they don’t link into the system builder but have you or anyone else kept any thoughts on them

    For the zillionth time I am running an idea (7 years trying !) and I get near a cunning plan for success but I find something crops up, usually when I move from paper-trading to the real deal. Any thoughts ?

    Norman 25/10/16 10:43 AM Reply


    • Hi Norman, ah yes moving from paper into the real world causes us all to come a cropper every now and then!
      I need to spend some time on 3m+ chases asap- I looked at their HRB standard ratings before and from memory the Top 3 rated in handicap chases would win around 55% of all chases, which is always some sort of guide/starting point, or can be. Likewise those near the bottom of ratings dont have great record. I will do some work on that specific race type, class, field size, going, etc. My to do list doesn’t get any shorter!
      Josh

      Josh 25/10/16 11:01 AM Reply


      • A few years ago the guy who was really good on 3 mile+ chasers was Nick Mordin…I had all his books then. He sprung many an angle for me and I still adhere to many of them….unfortunately I can have a grasshopper mind sometimes, and I still use pen and paper. lol. I’m not a techie sadly.

        Tony Mc 25/10/16 11:43 AM Reply


        • Yep I have a few of his- I should probably go back and read them again!

          Josh 25/10/16 11:52 AM Reply


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