TTP Jumps Notes: Sun 23/10/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: Reminder that posts on Sunday are a bonus- well I don’t guarantee they will be posted unlike Mon-Sat- in reality qualifiers for Sunday’s racing are likely to be posted at some point on the Sat afternoon or the Sunday morning by 11am- and so far I haven’t missed a day. You will always know in plenty of time if I am unable to post Sunday’s qualifiers and as always full members have access to the guide.

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Aintree… I am off there for the day given it is my local track and I will be trying to improve my ‘paddock eye’ which I think is slowly getting better! If you are there and see me, do say hello.

 

AINTREE

2.10

Desert Sensation (hncp h) UP

NOTE: Newland 0/8,0 places last 8 runners. Not firing on all cylinders but again only some sort of guide.

Scoop The Pot (hncp h) UP

One Cool Scorpion (hncp h) UP

NOTE: For both, Hobbs in decent form, 8/32,11 places last 14 days. 0/7,1 place with his handicap hurdlers returning here 60+ days but they are small enough numbers I suppose.

 

2.45

Forgotten Gold UP (all hncps + micro…trainer/jockey combo… note..Heskin is now stable jockey and in theory where George/Brennan used to do well, George/Heskin should continue that)

NOTE: George going ok, without flying, 2/17,6 places last 14 days. Horse is 2/6,3 places over fences 60+ days and could be time to catch him.

 

3.15

Born Survivor (hncp h) 2nd 7s>11/4

Cardinal Walter UP (micros- class + runs this season)

Duke Street UP (hncp h)

NOTE: Newland ‘Only’ 5/62,20 places handicap hurdlers 60+ days off.

Perform UP(mico – going, if Good)

Miles To Milan UP (micro – going, if Good)

NOTE: Well in terms of trainers from the above who are ‘in form’ according to Geegeez Gold metrics (20%+ win SR or 51% win/p SR ast 14 or 30 days)… there is only Hobbs, with Perform and Miles to Milan…8/32,11 places last 14 days.

 

3.50

Gods Own 2nd (all hncps, micro.. trainer/jock combo)

Royal Regatta UP (hncp c + micro, going if Good)

NOTE: Again the George and Hobbs ‘form stats’ as above. God Own is 2/5,3 places over fences after breaks 60+ days so fitness may not be what beats him.

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WINCANTON

2.25

Panis Angelicus (hncp h) UP

3.30

Gentleman Jon (hncp c) WON 13/2>5/1

 

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My View: Well its hard to rule out anything here with total confidence. I think I am happy to leave the two at Wincanton- Panis Angelicus is just in no sort of form at all and the yard has another fancied one in this .IF he were to suddenly bounce back into form he would go close, but that looks an if to my eye. Gentleman Jon- Paddy Brennan rides for the old boss here, Tom George, which is good to see- and given he has ridden this horse and rides for Tizzard more now, you would have thought he had the choice- that may be a tip in itself. This one has stamina to prove, albeit is trying the trip for the first time so not impossible he goes close. Not an overly confident leave.

Aintree looks a puzzle as always. 2.10- If Hobbs jockey bookings are a sign then Scoop The Pot may be the one of the two to be on. I don’t want to be backing that many horses in the 3.15… Perform and Born Survivor have the unexposed, ‘could be more to come’ profiles and both could have plenty in hand. The market may guide as to the others and it suggests Cadinal Walter (some form questions) Duke Street and Miles to Milan have a bit to do,albeit on paper they are not without chances. I haven’t worked out if I will be having a bet in 3.50 or whether just a race to watch and enjoy. Something may jump out at me at the track. You could make some sort of case for most in that race.

Good luck with whatever you go with.

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • I can recall Paddy Brennan saying Gods Own was a spring horse after his win at Aintree.He may still be good enough to win here,but I would imagine his campaign will be geared towards repeating last seasons success,but then again its hard to know plans of connections

    gearoid180468 23/10/16 9:00 AM Reply


  • Just a note on the 4.40 NHF at ayr tomorrow,from experience if the Richards team(Carry On Arcadio most likely runner) have one ready to fire the prices don’t be up long before being hammered,my advice would be to take first one up(usually BET365),Thats of course if it is a backable price(5/1+)

    gearoid180468 23/10/16 10:25 AM Reply


  • There was a big plunge on Ping 3.05 tomorrow.Betvic had pushed it out to 25/1;looked 15 mins later 11/1.could be signifigent betting from connctions who also have St Gregory in same race,dont know how much activity in early prices it takes to make a 25/1 shot drop to 11/1 though

    gearoid180468 23/10/16 8:40 PM Reply


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