FREE DAILY POST: 22/10/2016 (COMPLETE)

MEMBERS... Note…various posts are up which you can access from the Home Page , or ‘Exclusive Reports’ when logged in. There is a Saturday trends post, as well as Saturday’s main TTP Notes post with qualifiers and notes. Showcase notes and ‘My View’ will follow in the morning.

Members posts don’t get much better- Troika Steppes romping home at 25/1>14/1 was the highlight from only 3 main bets at Cheltenham from the TTP guide. Clearly tipping it would have been welcome but that is how it is going at the moment. The Showcase trainer meeting notes also highlighted four winners at Evens, 3/1, 6/1, 6/1 from 5 races touched on, plus a couple of 4ths at 16s, and some other placed efforts. A good day.

***

 

TIPS

1.50 Cheltenham

Cogry- 1 point win – 10/1 9/1 (general) UP- Fell first

Well when I don’t ‘tip’ they seem to win and when I do they inevitably lose a leg and trail in. I am very cold at the moment. My chasing losing run, points wise, is around 25 points I think so take this one with a pinch of salt. Tipping Troika Steppes at 25s- decent pointer from TTP guide- would have helped. But I didn’t.

Anyway, why Cogry?

There are a few good stats pointers for this race…namely being 2nd to 9th in weights, places at least once last three starts, 8+ chase runs, 17+ career runs. Being Top 7 in the market is a good sign in this race also. This race usually goes to one who has had a lengthy break.

Cogry ticks all the main boxes that I looked at and has a few things in his favour. NTD has won this race before, once in the last 9 years. The horse rarely runs a bad races over fences now, when not trying to take one with him. As a 6 year old last season he ran some crackers, including at Cheltenham’s November meeting when making his seasonal reappearance. He ran a decent fourth there. IF he is a1 here I would like to think he could get involved. There is a bit of pace on which he needs as he looks a stayer- but this race isn’t as deep as that one last year. There could just be plenty more to come from him this year and this price was worth a chance. He stays well. And he has track experience. Plenty in here have some stamina/recent form questions.

Negatives…well his jumping got better last year and the cheekpieces looked to have helped on his last run, retained here. There is of course the fitness question but we know NTD can get them fit. And then there is the ground. This may be too lively but I simply don’t know. He hasn’t raced on it very often and if he lines up I would like to think they think it is fine.

Those negatives maybe enough to put you off but I was happy to take a stab at 9s. He looks good on my stats/trends, is open to progress here, stays well and the course is no problem. We shall see if he can get me off the dreaded coldlist. There isn’t much else I would want to be on here.

Of The rest…

Well Coologue WON  looks interesting. There could be more to come from him this season. He only just falls down on a weight trend but if handling this track (mainly raced on flat tracks) he could play a role. Stamina looks fine as do other race conditions. He is probably the one I fear most.

I have a few stamina questions over most of the other fancied ones. I am yet to be convinced that Henryville will stay 25f around here..BUT he has yet to prove that he won’t I may have him wrong. If he stays he could clearly get involved. Keltus won only an OK race the last day and again I suppose that proved he stayed but again a slight niggle over fences over 25f here. I also don’t know how good his form is. There could be better ones in here. But Nicholls can do no wrong at the moment. Full Shift has stamina to prove – and I really don’t want that as a question around here, especially on seasonal reappearance. If staying he could well get involved. Racing Pulse looks interesting but I have backed one Curtis horse with a similar profile already this season and maybe that has scarred me! There should be more to come at some point and clearly if he leaves his form behind from the back end of last season he could get involved.

So, it looks a tricky race with every runner having some sort of question to answer. Cogry should be fit- just a question of whether he is quick enough and has the pace to keep tabs on them. IF it is clear he is travelling within his comfort zone over the first third of the race, holding his position and jumping well, we should get a run for our money over the last couple.

***

***

JUMPS ANGLES

to follow : Notes are here >>> if you wish to look etc…

NTD

1.50 Chelt- Cogry (no ticks- hope above he doesn’t need run, but he may)

2.25 Chelt- Ballymalin / Wholestone (both tick 1 run 90 days + rest pattern,both Qualify on NTD non handicap h micro also)

5.15 Chelt- Woodfort (no ticks)

Lavelle

3.30 Chelt – Casino Markets (october runner positive, 1+ run 90 days positive)

Ewart

4.15 Kel – Zaru (all handicappers positive)

Dobbin

4.50 – Kelso -Donapollo (Kelso,C5,11-8+ all positives)/ Mister Don (as for Donapollo)/ Proud Gamble (Kelso,+C5)

5.25 Kelso – Wicked Games (Kelso, class,11-8+,dropping in class- ticks ALL the positives)

***

That will be all for today.

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Tomorroow marks 1 year since i decided to take my betting more sriously and sticking to a plan,before i would take something up and after few losses would loose confidence,go onto something else with equal result.There have been a few lessons learned along the way.The first id say is that I have changed from looking for winners to looking for value bets.Usually i would back something down as low as 11/4 but now i would look twice at a 5/1 shot.On the other side i would be put off backing something against a short priced favourite,now i just think that there is bit of value in the opposition.Secondly I have learned that day to day results aren’t that important,just the long term trend.Thirdly is the fact that you only need to back 10 winners,to double your bank,6 at 16/1 and so on,we will have plenty of 16/1 winners this season,just have to make sure we are on them

    gearoid180468 21/10/16 10:05 PM Reply


    • Spot on G..i have terrible slide back habits which I’m trying to put to bed….I don’t back short now either.
      Good Luck mate.

      tonymc 21/10/16 10:19 PM Reply


      • Hi,

        I have written a couple of magazine articles re serious betting that picks up on value, related to horse racing. Anyone interested in a copy email me. mcolwell1959@aol.com .

        martin colwell 22/10/16 10:59 AM Reply


        • Hi Martin I’ve sent a request for your articles via my Hotmail….I can’t recall my windows password so can’t reply via your addy on here.

          Cheers Mate.

          tonymc 22/10/16 5:08 PM Reply


  • hi.josh .ive just joined today & still trying to feel my way in .I’m a lifetime member of geegeez gold ,love my racing & have been following your site also ,the members on your site know whats what ,, I’m happy to say its just a trial but I’m sure I’m in for the long haul.just to let you know I live in the usa & I’m 8 hours behind you so if you don’t see a lot of posts from me that’s why lol….you guys rock ..

    john 21/10/16 11:53 PM Reply


    • Hi John, 8 hours?…you must be California or thereabouts.
      Welcome.

      Tony Mc. 22/10/16 10:48 AM Reply


      • Spokane washington

        john 22/10/16 2:02 PM Reply


        • Gotcha John…

          tonymc 22/10/16 4:58 PM Reply


  • Members posts don’t get much better- Troika Steppes romping home at 25/1>14/1 was the highlight from only 3 main bets at Cheltenham from the TTP guide. Clearly tipping it would have been welcome but that is how it is going at the moment. The Showcase trainer meeting notes also highlighted four winners at Evens, 3/1, 6/1, 6/1 from 5 races touched on, plus a couple of 4ths at 16s, and some other placed efforts. A good day…………………………………………guys I must be missing something here can you please tell me where I should be looking because I didn’t get on a single one of these…thanks in advance ….

    john 22/10/16 12:00 AM Reply


    • Join the club josh .i looked at troika steps in the morning .thought it looked value but waited to see for any strength in the market .got busy at work forgot to place the bet and then watched it come in first.de Ja vu after I missed save the bees in the summer at 30/1 .i may have missed them both but it shows your throwing up good value bets and as long as some of us catch them we will keep following .even I might hit one this winter here’s hoping.keep up the good work

      Jamie 22/10/16 9:36 AM Reply


      • Hi Jamie, I like Feargal O’Brien as a trainer so took 16/1 on Troika Steppes along with 16/1 EW Brownville…left me in profit.

        Tony Mc. 22/10/16 10:52 AM Reply


      • Ah sorry to hear that Jamie, never pleasant and we have all been there! There will be a few more in the weeks ahead with any luck!

        Josh 22/10/16 11:04 AM Reply


    • Hi John, welcome to the blog…
      So there are two main post types really…
      1. Free Daily Posts… they include any tips (best to lay them at the moment!) , some other micro angles I have researched and we are following (all can be found in Free Systems/Reports tab at top of blog) and any other thoughts. That content is accessible to all to read/use as you please. I am a big user of geegeez gold and reference various stats as and when

      2. Then there is the Members Club which I think is good value- the main part is my jumps stats pack that I research every winter – Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17… in the daily Jumps Notes posts I highlight any qualifiers against those stats, along with some other notes/thoughts. There are also exclusive big meeting trainer notes and various others things. If you go to HOME page all those with a gold bar down left are Members only posts. You can take a 7 day free trial if you wish here… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/amember/signup

      Hope that may help,
      Josh

      Josh 22/10/16 10:31 AM Reply


  • Fox Norton has been backed but is in his winning grade today.

    I see that Paul Kealy has put up Amomentmadness in the 2.40Don, 16/1 available. He also has a good word for Novoman in the 5.00.

    I like Brazos this evening, 7.10 Che, 12/1 about.

    Good luck today.

    martin colwell 22/10/16 11:04 AM Reply


  • Nick Pullen agrees with you Josh and also tips amomentofmadness – hopefully you can turn his luck around as well – his last winner was August and has been very painful to follow financially

    joe 22/10/16 12:13 PM Reply


  • Paddy Brennan is starting to rewrite O Briens stats,especially at courses he doesn’t fare well at,Owen Na View is in fine form but shouldn’t be up to winning 3.30 but at 20/1 might just be worth e/w nibble

    gearoid180468 22/10/16 12:58 PM Reply


  • Poor Start to the day

    Jo 22/10/16 1:51 PM Reply


    • story of my tipping in recent months really! Got the danger horse right. Safe to say a struggle.

      Josh 22/10/16 1:59 PM Reply


  • I had Coologue at 9/1 Josh… I thought there was only Cogry and Coologue in it so backed both.

    tonymc 22/10/16 5:01 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Tony. Given I had narrowed it down to two I should have clearly put 1 point on each also. Too many little errors like that. On the whole reading them ok. Glad you had a piece.

      Josh 22/10/16 8:09 PM Reply


Post A Reply