TTP Jumps Notes: 18/10/16 (complete)

Updated Results For End Week 3: PDF CLICK HERE>>> 

Top level…

Running Total: End Week 3

General Race Types:12/72,22p =  +6.65points

Micro Angles: 9/39,13 p = +31 points

Total including multiple qualifiers: 21/111,35 p = +37.65 points

Total 1x  1 point only : 17/96,29p =  +16.65

 

Bonus Stats: 1/7, 1 p = -3

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It certainly looks like the micro angles are a case of ‘if in doubt back them’ and the general race types may need more thought- albeit I am clearly pleased that so far they are all profitable if backed systematically, which was always the hope. Hopefully you are finding the approach a useful addition to your jumps punting so far.

Onto…

 

EXETER

 

2.40

Houston Dynamo UP 15/2>4/1(hncp hurdle…one of lower win SR in guide at just 15% and one where using more info to help may be no bad thing long term)*

*well backed, he raced with some enthusiasm for a time and hurdled well enough- he was pestered for the lead which wasn’t ideal and maybe sulked eventually. The money suggests maybe more was expected-may be worth keeping an eye on if kept to hurdles and guaranteed an easy lead as could just keep galloping despite his ageing years.

NOTE: Pipe 0/6,1 place last 14 days. Horse could possibly be the pace angle. I suspect they will try and make all. Has been chasing a long time, 9th run in handicap hurdles. Now 13lb below his last winning mark.

 

3.10

Caulfield’s Venture (hncp chase) 3rd 7/1

NOTE: Lavelle 1/8,2 places last 14 days. Horse has returned to this track the last two seasons/octobers and won. 3/5,3 places after breaks of 60+ days in chases.

For N Against (micro – age) UP

Skylander (micro – age) UP

NOTE: Both… Pipe form stats as above, 0/6,1 place last 14 days.

 

4.40

Samburn Shujaa (NHF, Hobbs)

NOTE: trainer’s going ok, 5/28,8 places last 14 days.

 

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My View.

Houston Dynamo –  I think looks interesting enough and I have had a go. Was 15/2 now into 6/1. He clearly has some questions to answer but I thought he may try and make all and has at least been running well. He could get these on the stretch. Given his age, and returning to hurdles after such a stint chasing (could jump them big/lose ground say) I personally wouldn’t want to go mad but I was happy to have a nibble.

3.10- I have looked at this race on other post – I like Caulfields Venture- I have got on at 4s, believe maybe 5s was around last night. He just has a lot of profile pointers – he is almost too obvious which is a concern, but a bit of an illogical reason not to back one! I can’t have the Pipe horses on recent form/chase form and believe they need 3/4 to not run their races for them to win. That may happen of course and I may have egg on my face. I am due leaving a decent priced winner and the micro angles have done well to date. As I write they are both weak in the market if that is any guide.

4.40 – well as is the case with these stats there will be horses with no form. I can see why he is the price he is. A look at some others… Tizzard- well he is only 3/29 with horses making first career start in last two years, only 11/155 with bumper runners last 5 years, 0/8,2 places at track. I couldn’t take 7/2 about his on that basis but maybe the market should be noted- being backed. Nash brings one over but he is 0/10,1p with horses first time up last two years.

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