TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 15/10/16 (complete)

NOTE: Stratford is a ‘summer jumping’ track and as such no stats in the guide. Predictably I have spotted a few typos in the guide- namely the track names… Uttoxeter, Market Rasen (not Raisen!) and Wincanton.. and I need to add in J Reveley in the trainer/jockey combo micro at Doncaster.(pointed out by one of you recently,so cheers) I will post a new copy in the Exclusive Downloads section of Members Area asap

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MARKET RASEN

2.10

Zara Hope  WON 9/2>7/2 (micro, 0 runs 90 days)

NOTE: Longsdon maybe starting to go ‘out of form’?… ‘only’ 3/28,12 places last 14 days…performing 45% below market expectation. Did have a winner three days ago though so maybe we shouldn’t read much into that just yet. He is also only 2/47, 11 places last two years with horses having their second start in a handicap, as this one is doing.

2.45

Another 1-2… 

L’Aigle Royal (all hncps) WON 2/1

NOTE: Skelton ‘in form’ 3/15,7 places last 14 days. In last two years…25/80,44 places +15 points with recruits from other yards first time up.

Card Game (hncp hurdles) 2nd 9/2

NOTE: Jefferson hitting form now, 3/9,9 places last 14 days. ‘Only’ 5/45,14 places with handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off. But.. 1/6,4 places at the track with such types.

 

FFOS LAS

1.50

Just the 1,2,3… (sadly I didn’t have the 89/1 tricast…finished in order of preference as well…one day!)

Truckers Glory WON 4/1>9/4 (nearly the full house… all hncps/hncp hurdles/Micros… 90 days,handicap h debut, class)

NOTE: Curtis ‘in form’ – 4/14,6 places last 14 days. All her handicap debutants can be backed really – 2 year stats of 9/31,12 places.. +37 SP. 4/11,9 places with handicap hurdlers at track returning 60+ days off.

Bendomingo 2nd (all hncps)

NOTE: trainer continues in fine form…10/25,15 places last 14 days. Also looks likely to qualify on my ‘1 run in last 90 days + 21-60 rest pattern from my Sept/Oct trainer notes.

Bishops Court 3rd (hncp hurdle)

NOTE:: trainer also in form, 4/19,5 places last 14 days. He is 2/6,3 places with handicap hurdlers at track returning after 60+ days.

 

4.10

Hassle (all hncps + hncp h) UP 8/1

NOTE: The good Dr in form also, 4/13,5 places last 30 days. He is 15/66,31 places with last time out winners last two years.

 

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My View:

Another of those days where all could have some sort of chance to my eye, due to recent form and/or unexposed profiles.

2.10- Zara Hope – there are a couple of more negative stats which make me cautious and I may leave him- his last win hasn’t worked out that great – 2/40 of those to have run since and he takes a step up in class. Could be more to come though. The two at top of card look most interesting – Whittington has some interesting stats of note…2/6,3 places last 14 days, 2/7,5 places handicap debutants and 8/30,15 places all those returning after 60+ days in last two years. Something to note there if looking at race. Looks a competitive little race.

2.45 – The Skelton horse is too short for me and the market suggest it may be unwise to take him on. Jefferson’s does have stamina to prove after the break but has stayed on over 19f here. His string couldn’t be in better form. Unsure if I will play in race but fingers crossed one goes in.

Over at Ffos Las…

1.50- they are probably listed in my own order of preference. I have had a nibble on the Curtis horse given the stats profile- all of those should pay over time I would like to think, even if today isn’t the day. That one is in the could be anything category. I think the other two have something to prove and haven’t won as yet between them from a few goes and have been running in novice handicaps on the whole. But, they both still have time on their side and all of the trainers are in form.

Hassle- you would think this may have been a target race for some of those bigger yards represented and a few have more unexposed profiles. But this one has done nothing wrong, is in form and clearly has ability. You get the feeling that one of the others may show plenty here but we shall see. I believe Davy Russel comes over for the first time for Mr Walters. Whether or not that is a tip in itself we shall see!

Good luck on whatever you play.

Enjoy your Saturday,

Josh

p.s I fully intend to post up qualifiers for Kempton on Sunday. These should be up Saturday afternoon but may be Sunday morning.

 

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6 Comments

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  • Good tri cast in the first at ffos las josh excellent piece of work well done

    thomasson67 15/10/16 1:57 PM Reply


    • yep…would have been nice to have £5 on that at 89/1!! Sadly I just had a good bet on winner at 4/1, and couple of savers on other two. Always looks a good bet after they finish in that order haha. One day I will have a fun bet on such a prediction!

      Josh 15/10/16 2:00 PM Reply


  • hi josh, good to see your getting back in the groove, superb ananylis of the trainers, worth every penny.

    muttley 15/10/16 3:01 PM Reply


    • cheers- yep stats are having a good old time of it at moment – throw in a few more for context with trust help of my geegeez cards and makes for a good package I think! Nice forecast in that 2.45 MR also. Just pleased they are finding winners which is the hard bit. Its taken a while to find something of value to offer you all but think I may have found it, touch wood.

      Josh 15/10/16 3:04 PM Reply


  • I just managed to go through the stats pack last night,its very quick to identify where to concentrate,great value,its also like welcoming back old friends,the trainers that continue to produce the goods,the jumps season runs at a more sedate pace.I think with the flat we are overburdened with the sheer volume of fixtures.Perhaps a more niche approach might be better next flat season,lookoing at trainers that are profitable but might not have 5 or 6 runners per meeting

    gearoid180468 15/10/16 5:03 PM Reply


    • yep agree with all of that. I will rethink for flat- the number of meetings/possibles is too stressful and not enjoyable for me. A more niche micro portfolio per track may work. I will have a think and maybe play around for winter AW season in next couple of weeks.

      Josh 15/10/16 5:05 PM Reply


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