FREE DAILY POST: 13/10/16 (complete)

A good day across the blog on Wednesday, which is always welcome. The Sept/Oct trainers kept their decent form going taking that tally to +34.5 points. Owen Na View did exactly as I hoped he would in stats/angles section and there was an 11/2 winner in the Members post to keep up the good mood. Now, just to tip a bloody winner!

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TIPS

5.00 Carlisle – None…

Looks an interesting enough race- the market suggests Three Faces West UPis ready and here to perform but I think you are mad taking that price on one making their return after a break. But, clearly he is expected to hack up and if he builds on his last run he may do. On only his 4th chase start there could be plenty more to come from him this season. While I don’t want to be with him, I don’t necessarily want to aggressively take him on either. I would be disappointed if Ardkilly (what side of stable has he rolled out of today), Presented or Pena Dorada are good enough to take this. Bob Tucker could just be using a free space in the horsebox. His best performances have been on dead flat tracks to date- interesting how he goes here. I won’t say he can’t win but wonder whether the handicapper may have him for the time being. I am unsure as to the strength of Askamore Darsi’s chase form albeit he is still unexposed. His best chase form to date has been in the slop and McCain is 0/9,1 place with his handicap chasers returning here 60+ days off, but the horse has a good record fresh.

That leaves the old boy, Carrigdhoun, WON 10/1 who is also a stats qualifier in the TTP Members post. He has an ok record fresh, had a year out in 2014 (so could be considered a spring chicken at 10!), the trainer’s horses are going well enough and he has course form. He looks most interesting and it is a shame there are not 8 runners here for an EW wager. There is also plenty of pace on- most in here like to get on with it. Stamina is this old boy’s forte and if he is a1,and can keep tabs on them, he could be staying on late and if there are any chinks in the fav, could be the one to capitalise. I am reluctant to tip him but I have had a small bet on him at 7s (not quite Owen Na View size mind) – Maybe the forecast is the way to go, 1 to beat 4… but then that may just be overconfidence having predicted one yesterday!

So, maybe I am treating this as a ‘feeling my way in’ chase again. We shall see how it pans out.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today. Plenty already to have a look through and nothing standing out on geegeez stats reports I have looked at.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Sept/Oct Trainers

2/2 on Wednesday..+8 points…running total now 14/43, +34.5 points

NTD

3.50 Carl- Ballyarthur DNQ (no ticks against my sept/oct notes  but QUALIFIES (UP) on NTD non-handicap micro angle previously touched on) 111/10

4.05 Uttox – Guiting Power UP (ticks- 1 run 90 days, plus 21-60 day rest pattern) 10/1

4.40 Uttox – Yanmare WON 5/1>11/4 (ticks extreme weight trend) (also QUALIFIER on another NTD micro tucked away,his unexposed chasers…16/49,25p +65 SP 2013-) 5/1

5.40 Uttox – Bring Back Charlie (ticks 1 run 90 days) 10/3 WON 3/1

R Dobbin

2.40 Carl – Bako De La Saulaire  DNQ (no ticks unless fancied ,4/1 or shorter would be a positive) 25/1

 

NEW Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio

Hurdles

2.10 Carl – Cuil Rogue (unexp hurdlers) 16/1 – UP

5.10 Uttox – Distant Rain (unexp hurdlers) 13/2 – 2nd

Chases

4.40 Uttox – Copeerfacejack (2nd run after break) 7/2 2nd 4/1

 

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Post Complete.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • I have 3 qualifiers for tomorrow

    5.50 Chelmsford – Masonic 3.0
    Josey Gordon for R. Brisland 8 rides, 3 winners, 7 places 37.5% win SR 87.5% place SR

    6.50 Chelmsford – Paddy A 10.0
    P J Mcbride using 5lb or 7lb claimers at certain tracks last 5 years – 44 runners, 15 winners, 23 places
    34.09% Win SR 52.27% place SR

    8.50 Chelmsford – Foie Gras 15.0
    S D Souza for C Dwyer at Lingfield, Southwell & Chelmsford in Class 5 & 6 –
    37 runners, 15 winners, 23 places – 40.54% win SR, 62.16 place SR

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 12/10/16 10:48 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve. Foie Gras gotta be worth a go at the price (although tempting to put a slightly higher one in as now drifted to 16.5). 1/2 over c&d, never won with more than the 9 4 lbs won with a few starts ago here, so maybe the return to that weight will spark him again since he’s actually carrying 7 lbs less than lto despite only dropping a couple in the handicap.
      Paul

      blueboy199 13/10/16 12:09 AM Reply


    • Terrific stuff Steve…i’ll see how my ratings match just for an exercise….Kempton was spot on…still puzzled by why?? lol.

      Tony Mc. 13/10/16 1:09 PM Reply


    • Cheers for Foie Gras Steve…a fiver averaging about 18.0 on Betfair. Great pick.
      Paul

      blueboy199 13/10/16 8:57 PM Reply


      • Nice one Paul…The odds kept high too, A lot of people probably put off by its last run here but you made a good point about the weight, I was on at 16.5 and happpy with that

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 13/10/16 9:05 PM Reply


  • Working off your early April Flat TTStats had yet another from the Appleby/Mullen link at Nottingham at 25/1. I’ve been quite selective with that combo at Nottingham and focussed on races when the price is double figures and it has more than paid its way Thank You!

    Ian 13/10/16 8:00 AM Reply


    • Ah just what I like to hear, sounds like you have found an approach using those that works for you, top work. I bet that was fun to watch! Patience/selectivity clearly being rewarded.

      Josh 13/10/16 8:03 AM Reply


      • I have found them more than helpful and will use them as a basis for future seasons and in the winter try to research what has worked best. My gut reaction is that whilst at some tracks the data has really worked all summer (like Nottingham) at others (Brighton is an example) it started brilliantly (Bridger/Carson) as an example and then faded.

        I Don’t think that’s a flaw in your excellent research btw – more that at the smaller tracks, horses who win will then be handicapped out of winning again until they lose a few and their marks recede. The bigger the stable I would say the longer the track/trainer/jockey data will hold, but when the yard has say 10-12 horses running every 2 weeks at the same 2-3 tracks – then better to watch the handicap mark/price and to plot accordingly.

        I would recommend the overviews both Flat and NH though to anyone and well done.

        Ian 13/10/16 9:11 AM Reply


        • Thanks Ian…yep I would agree with that – certainly using them as a guide/starting point is way to go- sometimes odds are such you can just trust the stats and wait for the biggie. Those at the lower end of flat handicaps would usually have a handicap ceiling and recent trainer form can be a good guide.

          Yep Bridger has a few old timers doesn’t he and I noticed a lot of the same horses keep running. They win in turn but probably not wise to just back them all and try and catch them on the going day which can be tough. I know Gerry who comments on here has had a good time with the Dascombe/Kingscote partnership at Haydock and a bit like Appleby/Mullen has found a few decent priced ones.

          Certainly it has been a good start to the TTP Jumps notes…the stats are finding winners and I have done ok at avoiding plenty of losers also. Touch wood that continues. The micro angles are more focused in that, which so far is helping.

          I will have a think about what to do on the Flat Stats side next year – maybe a much more focused , one page profile, may be way to go, highlighting any qualifiers etc.

          Josh 13/10/16 9:21 AM Reply


  • Not a criticism more feedback and I hope constructive re the Flat 2017

    I think your excellent run on NH last season (especially 3+ mile Chases) impacted on an understandable delay in focussing on the Flat and that meant a lot of great data in the TTP Flat notes in April/May may have been missed by many.

    It may be an idea/suggestion to “park” NH from after Aintree and have more faith/confidence in your undoubted abilities on Flat sooner and don’t wait until July to have the courage of your convictions.

    Of course if the BHA clearly defined seasons better it would be a lot easier.

    Keep the faith – I have!

    Ian 13/10/16 10:02 AM Reply


    • Cheers Ian… yep I took all that as constructive don’t worry- albeit I always welcome polite criticism, don’t mind that at all.

      Yep, maybe a two week break post Aintree (well Sandown maybe,they have a good chase I couldn’t leave!) before flat is way to go- and I will pull finger out and get whatever I do on flat ready in good time.

      The sprint test zone did ok, I need to go back and look at that. But, my word looking at 10+ runners sprint handicaps regularly is mentally draining/tough. I need to refine the approach (more focus on eye-catchers and having courage to follow them for three runs etc maybe)

      Always things to ponder and improve on, that’s all part of the fun!

      I think I have found a good approach to the meeting notes- finding a few ‘positive’ pointers for certain trainers at big flat meetings had some success and that will form part of the attack again next season.

      In general I do just enjoy looking at the jumpers more, i find the analysis and race watching (whatever the result) just more enjoyable, which helps when you may be having a bad spell!

      I think many deserted in recent months, hopefully some return now the jumps is hotting up!
      Cheers

      Josh 13/10/16 10:24 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, I have Carrigdhoun 2nd in my ratings, just a point behind the fav.
    Carrigdhoun has a 3rd in a class 1 at Kelso 2m7f and staying on and is totally rested, only he and TFW have won at the track, but your right…a shame there’s not an ew bet here…so a small bet indeed.

    GL.

    Tony Mc. 13/10/16 12:49 PM Reply


    • Ah good to know- yea he is getting on and never know may need a few runs to get going these days, but has won fresh so all is not lost. Have had a small interest and hopefully he can out-run his odds. The fav looks strong – but you never know after a break, he could be keen, he could make errors as still inexperienced. May win in a hack canter but will be fun to see how the old boy goes.

      Josh 13/10/16 12:55 PM Reply


  • Hi guys can anyone help me I am looking to follow any section religiously this nh season but don’t know what to follow maybe h,cap chases or micro angles ,or any other could do of a bit of advice off people on here as I’m relatively new to the site and to betting in general maybe I should stick to 3miles chases can anyone advise me please

    thomasson67 13/10/16 2:04 PM Reply


    • Hi Steven,

      Good question and I will try and give you my thoughts, conscious that everyone is different and there is no right answer…

      -if you are also talking about developing your own interest/skills etc…then I would go straight for 3m+ handicap chases as a test race area. But, that is just a personal liking. That is where my ‘tips’ will now focus on in the main.

      -next in terms of content on here…a general point of ensuring you have an adequate betting bank if you wish to follow certain aspects, a question of whether you want to paper trade to get a feel for whatever approach you take and/or start of betting small/level you are comfortable with. This game is a marathon, not a sprint and can be a bit of a trudge at times. You can always increase stakes in time. But, that gets to question of why you are betting etc etc

      -you are in the Members Club I believe… I have been quite good at saying which horses I am definitely leaving, and have avoided a lot of losers so far. You could take the approach of taking those on board and backing the rest, to small stakes and again building up over time. Those stats are untested to a point and I am publishing weekly results etc so you can see how they are going. The micro angles have started well and there are fewer bets on the whole- so you may decide to just follow those to start with, esp if you don’t fee confident going through my notes and working out how you want to attack them.

      – in terms of Free Daily Posts…well there will be the tips which you can follow, and again betting bank management important. Given my SR and some of my poor recent form, a betting bank of 100 points would be advised for those I think, could be argued 150 maybe.

      -the systems…well the sept/oct angles have gone well and you could just back those when they ‘tick a positive’ as described in the notes. Knowing all our luck they will probably go on a losing run now, having had a very good first 6 weeks or so…

      -the Handicap Hurdle/Chase portfolio…again, they are new and should be treated with some caution. The research is good but until they go in live play you never really know.

      The general point is not to go too hard too early, get despondent following a few losers and move on to the next thing. It depends on temperament, how much you want to look at the horses etc, whether you just want 1-2 horses to back a day say. I would say the Tips (I will get back to form at some point!) and the micro angles in members reports may be a good starting point. But, up to you.

      If that makes everything as clear as mud, do say!
      Josh

      Josh 13/10/16 2:26 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the reply josh I am leaning towards doing your tips on 3m chases and see how it goes as I am not really looking to bet every day at the moment but that may change in time.one question am I right in saying it would be virtually impossible to do a ante post section on your blog

    thomasson67 13/10/16 3:18 PM Reply


    • yep, that may be the way to go. With the TTP Daily notes etc you can dip in and out at a time that suits you- if you just wanted a look at a weekend or something- that is benefits of that approach also I think, esp when I embellish with own notes/thoughts.

      Nothing is impossible! – but, ante post betting doesn’t suit my own mental make up I dont’ think. Logically I cannot get it- backing something at Cheltenham now say when most havent’t run and who knows what the weather will be etc. AP betting is a whole specialist area by itself– of which there are a few fine judges around no doubt – but I doubt I am one of them and I have enough to focus on trying to perfect everything else!

      Josh 13/10/16 3:28 PM Reply


  • Thanks for your time josh,I really appreciate everything you do I have the upmost respect for this website and blog, without doubt joining the members club is one of the best things I have done everyone is so knowledgeable

    thomasson67 13/10/16 3:34 PM Reply


    • No problem, that is what I am here for and if you are kind/generous to give me money it is the least I can do! Yep a good community on here which is nice. Racing can be a lonely sport at times and much more fun when a few chipping in with thoughts/ideas etc.

      Josh 13/10/16 3:40 PM Reply


  • Carrigdhoun…never in doubt Josh…LOL…Get innnnnnn!!

    10/1 would you believe.

    Tony Mc. 13/10/16 5:12 PM Reply


    • I can’t believe that price- 11/1 with Bet365s new deal! Assumed wasn’t fit after that drift. Stayed on dourly. Top ride, jumped superb. Feeling my way in – and naturally when that happens annoyed didn’t tip- shame he wasn’t 10s this morning… exposed/age/fitness Qs – tipped a few too many drop out back of tv jobs with similar profile to dent confidence I think. Happy with how I read it at least…fav must have had a poor journey up, didn’t want to be there.

      Josh 13/10/16 5:17 PM Reply


      • Well done again today Josh, feeling your way in very nicely indeed

        Steve Wiseman 13/10/16 6:50 PM Reply


  • Hit the post today.Can’t believe Major Ivan got beat

    13/10/2016 GBP 5.00 Yankee: 4 DOUBLE W’S @ 3/1
    EVENT SELECTION PRICE E/W TERMS RESULT STATUS
    15:15 CARLISLE Horse Racing Outright – Race DOUBLE W’S 3/1 Standard EW terms apply Won Unsettled
    16:25 CARLISLE Horse Racing Outright – Race MAJOR IVAN 9/2 Standard EW terms apply Placed Unsettled
    17:00 CARLISLE Horse Racing Outright – Race CARRIGDHOUN 13/2 Standard EW terms apply Won Unsettled
    17:50 Chelmsford City Horse Racing Outright – Race MASONIC 5/6 Standard EW terms apply None Unsettled
    Bet ID: 65648319000 10:45 Bet Type: Yankee Stake: £ 55.00

    mozzer 13/10/16 5:36 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / all

    Good start yesterday with 2 winners from 7 for the “Polytrack Stallions” meaning the £1000 starting bank staking 2% of the bank ongoing has grown to £1178.22 and the next stake would be £23.56…I’m using Betfair SP less commision for all winning odds yesterdays being 10.9 & 5.9….Onwards to this evening where we have 6 selections from the 8 races followed by a footnote of good performing stallions but left out due to draw and / or another selection already chosen:

    1M – Top Draw 3,1,4,2,5 ( 2 non runners means Masonic is effectively running from stall 4)
    5.50 Chelmsford – Masonic 2.12 (Intense Focus 3 runs, 0 wins, 2 places) Drawn 6

    6F – Top Draw 1,4,10,6,5
    6.20 Chelmsford – Melissa Jane 10.0 (Foxwedge 1 run, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 4

    7F – Top Draw 14,3,4,10,6
    6.50 Chelmsford – No selection

    7F – Top Draw 14,3,4,10,6
    7.20 Chelmsford – Cliffs of Capri 16.0 (Canford Cliffs 1 run, 0 win, 1 place) Drawn 3

    7F – Top Draw 14,3,4,10,6
    7.50 Chelmsford – Alejandro 12.0 (Dark Angel 1 run, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 3

    2M – Top Draw 9,14,5,7,1
    8.20 Chelmsford – Master of Heaven 14.0 (Makfi 1 run, 1 win, 1 place) Drawn 7

    1M – Top Draw 3,1,4,2,5
    8.50 Chelmsford – Stun Gun 9.8 (Medicean 13 runs, 3 wins, 6 places) Drawn 4

    7F – Top Draw 14,3,4,10,6
    No Selection

    Footnote – Stallions of interest left out due to draw and / or other selection in race

    5.50 Claires Secret (Sakhees Secret 2,1,2)
    6.20 Maakaasib (Equiano 8, 2, 2)
    7.20 Torqit (Myboycharlie 3, 1, 1)
    7.20 Musicka (Kyllachy 3 runs, 0 wins, 2 places)
    7.50 Storm King (Shamardal 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    7.50 Welliesinthewater (Footstepsinthesand 1 run, 0 win, 1 place)
    9.20 Annabella (Approve 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    9.20 Wildbloom (Exceed & Excel 4 runs, 1 win, 3 places)

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 13/10/16 5:44 PM Reply


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