TTP Jumps Notes: 11/10/16 (complete)

 

HUNTINGDON 

2.00 –

Civil War (all hncps/handicap hurdles) 15/2 UP 13/2*

*looked to my eye as if got in a muck sweat before hand, dripping, and he failed to settle for most of race, no surprise he faded on that basis. 

NOTE: Moore’s are going ‘ok’ without being in blistering form… 7/36,12 places last 14 days. Only his third handicap hurdle, drops back in trip by 3 furlongs from last run – given he was prominent until a couple from home when fading, that may be significant to his chance here. Doing something different at least. His run LTO was his first in 90 days or so also.

King Simba (all hncps/micro – horse runs 90 days,0) 14/1 UP (8/1) *

*faded very tamely here having travelled ok. A lot of Baileys have been doing this recently as his trainer form suggests there me be problems…maybe the lack of rain etc has affected how he is readying them at home- a lack of hard grass work maybe. Who knows but his form of some concern at the moment. 

NOTE: Bailey’s not going too well at the moment, 0/10, 0 places last 10 days. This one won over CD on penultimate start and maybe something went wrong last time after some jumping errors. Actually 5/12,7 places at the track with all handicappers returning here 60+ days.

 

2.30 –

Mister Dick (all hncps/micro-horse runs this season) 4s UP 6/1

NOTE: Jonjo seems to have been ‘in and out’ for as long as I can remember in 2016 – very hard to predict. He is currently 2/30,4 places last 14 days, 54% below market expectations based on SPs of his runners. He won well the last day and is unexposed over fences. 48 day break looks odd to me, no idea why he wouldn’t have been out sooner. Unless, given his age, they are just giving him time.

 

4.35 –

Princess Tiana (all hncps) 3s – UP 10/3

NOTE: as above with Jonjo’s form. This one’s form seems to have dropped off a bit also but it doesn’t look the strongest of races.

 

***

MY VIEW: I don’t think there are any above I would confidently say I am happy to leave/dont have a chance to my eye. Will depend on price for me in context of those notes/trainer form etc. Most are young/unexposed in code with potential to show more at some point.

2pm – well at 15/2 and 14/1 (both bet365 as I write) I won’t be able to leave either of those given the stats and their ‘could be more to come’ profiles. The market suggests they are up against it and they do face two last time out winners. I will probably have 1/2 point on each I suspect,albeit slight preference for Moore’s. Far from confident but at those prices I wouldn’t be that comfortable having nothing on personally. One of those where the first port of call is to trust the stats in the long run I think. Market may well guide but my money will already be down.

Mister Dick- well 4s seems ok and another I may have a nibble at. The fav could still have plenty in hand over fences and will clearly take a lot of beating. But she had a tough enough race only 6 days ago and you never know, they are not machines. I think 4s feels fair enough in the context of this race. Who know if Jonjo’s are sick or what is going on but I will take a chance. The break does concern me but that price is just good enough for me, you may think it is too short etc. Each to their own.

Princess Tiana- not sure what I think as to this one’s chance at 3s. This isn’t a deep race and a repeat of all runs bar the last one would be enough to be in the mix. She is far from easy though and I don’t know if that price is good or not. Who knows what went on the last day- I have found to my costs a few times that it can be dangerous to try and make excuses in this game. Maybe she didn’t like the track or just had an off day. On the fence and I can feel the splinters.

(all results, if systematically backed,get recorded to 1 point win bets. I dare say we all have different approaches but if you are more selective as I am, I would advise keeping your own records, as I should start doing with these really!)

 

POLL…

 

Which Ones Do We Most Like? (2 votes max)

  • Civil War (32%, 8 Votes)
  • King Simba (16%, 4 Votes)
  • Mr Dick (4%, 1 Votes)
  • Princess Tiana (0%, 0 Votes)
  • I will have something on all of them (8%, 2 Votes)
  • None today (40%, 10 Votes)

Total Voters: 23

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, What a great read your blog is, keep it up! Quick question about the TTP for Huntingdon regarding the Distance stat for Jonjo O’Neill at the venue. Are there any races over 26/26.5F ? I’ve had a look at the racingpost website which shows 3m1F (25F) for the hurdle course and 2m7.5F(23.5F) for the chase course, but nothing over 26-26.5F. I thought this detail might be relevant for Princess Tiana in tomorrows 4.35.

    jamesm 10/10/16 5:32 PM Reply


    • Hi James, Cheers, touch wood it is always a great read, as a minimum! …yep I have that noted down to have a look at that, which I will do asap. It may be I have made an error which I hope isn’t the case- we are dealing with small numbers and it could well be they have re-measured and that trip no longer exists. Leave it with me.

      Josh 10/10/16 5:36 PM Reply


      • Nope it isn’t an error- it looks they may have remeasured. His stats for that distance are correct, couple of winners in 2013 and then 1 per year 14 +15. I assumed he may not have had a runner this year- but, could be that distance is now obsolete.

        There are not any others I wish to replace with. Let’s hope a strong replacement emerges this year, for next.

        Josh 10/10/16 5:43 PM Reply


        • Thanks for prompt response. I’m not sure if its a re-measure or they start from different place on track, i suspect the later, either way i reckon the stat backs up Princess Tiana’s chance in 4.35

          jamesm 10/10/16 5:51 PM Reply


          • Yep- well if you viewed it as his record over the most extreme /staying trip at the track, what you have said in your first comment would become that trip I suppose- that is one way we can look at it! He had a decent record 24-24.5f also in same period, so you may be correct to be more confident around these ‘new’ distances.

            Josh 10/10/16 6:00 PM Reply


    • Hi James/Josh…it may sound a bit frivolous [not meant to be] but I always allow a touch of leeway where a longer distance is used as any horse will not run the measured distance anyway,,,if it’s forced to race wide it automatically can only add [not subtract] to the official distance it’s set to run.
      The wiser jockey will try and keep it to the minimum variant if that’s it’s winning distance.

      tonymc 10/10/16 9:02 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, maybe I’ve missed the relevant fact but are you using ‘official’ start to jumps or october when looking at runs in season?
    Good start to stats whichever way.
    Thanks
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 10/10/16 6:46 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, another good question… I have used ‘official’ start to make it easier, which was 24th April 2016. That should be clear when looking at a typical racecard with any luck.
      Josh

      Josh 10/10/16 6:48 PM Reply


      • All clear now thankyou

        titus_a_duxass 10/10/16 6:59 PM Reply


  • I hear that Civil War is in good nick but they are not super confident. Depends on the price I guess?

    martin colwell 11/10/16 12:37 PM Reply


    • yea he was 15/2, now around 11/2 . 15/2 was good enough for me to have a nibble- drop in distance should help and could come on from that last run. unexposed etc. Hopefully a good run. Two in form horses to beat mind. And I won’t mind either if Bailey’s does them all!

      Josh 11/10/16 12:50 PM Reply


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