FREE DAILY POST: SAT 08/10/16 (COMPLETE)

MEMBERS: The TTP Qualifiers are up. Read those HERE>>>

( i will be back with notes in the morning, complete by 11am latest but hopefully earlier than that, as will the rest of this post…)

 

TIPS

5.00 Chepstow 

Fox Appeal – 1.5 points win 9/1 (general) (was 10s about last evening) UP 6/1*

*Well that was over rather early sadly-  as soon as Jacob decided to have him so far back and let him jump his fences himself. No part of that was that enjoyable to watch. He booted him into only one fence and he flew it, the rest he just let him jump – and he could be better on that score. Where is Paddy Brennan when you need him, booting them into fences. He will win one one day, not with a ride like that or being that far back. Abject, never gave the horse a chance. Money came and he travelled strongly on the whole, but all those little errors caught up with him in the end. You just can’t be that far back. I think that is a cliff I can see with this one. 

He will be the only tip in this.

 

Why Him? 

Well, its his time of year, he is fit,he is well handicapped on old form, race conditions look fine,trainer’s horses are going well,she is 2/7, 3 places in the race last 10 years and I thought 10s/9s was decent enough all things considered.

Last October he ran two crackers in G3s at Ascot and Cheltenham off marks of 151 and 152. I would like to think off 141 here he could get competitive. As JV points out below he does appear to have a preferred profile but there is no way, based on that Cheltenham run alone, that I can say he can’t go close here. That proved that LH is ok, that class of race is ok (he is a previous G2 winner back in the day) good ground is ok, undulating track is fine, trip is fine etc. Now, he can make the odd error. That is the fear, that he gets crowded, loses some lengths at the odd fence. That was worth a chance at 9s as with a clear round and luck in running I will be rather disconsolate if I don’t get a run for my money here. There can be no excuse unless there is genuine firm in the going which they are not disclosing.

Given the trainer’s record in the race, and this ones decent record on his next start after a long break… (3,1,2,1,3…X) I am minded to think that last run was a prep. 21f seems a bit short for him these days and he did get outpaced there. His form around 24f at Ascot and 25f at Cheltenham last October would indicate as much.

I have backed this one before I think without much luck but it got to the point with all of the above that if I can’t back him here, I don’t know when the hell else I could. Plenty of boxes just seem to be ticked for me. Hopefully he bounces over the first couple of fences, sits just behind the pace, and we can enjoy a good run from there on in. Jacob had better not hold him up out the back- cardinal sin in most chases really, and even more so if you are on one who can make a slight error.

He is also top 3 in HRB ratings (55% win SR in handicap chases,need to dig into those fig more in terms of field sizes/class etc, but a good guide) and top 3 in Geegeez Speed ratings also.

So, that is why I like him. He looks solid enough to me.

The Dangers?

Well it should be said that I was partly influenced by the fact that the top 3 in the weights in this, in last 10 years, are 0/32, 4 places, carrying 11-8+ a negative. That put me off Indian Stream a tad but she looks solid enough here. A perfect 3/3 after 60+ days off she has been a winning machine. She needs another step up here from a 10lb higher mark and importantly takes a step up in class. Trainer is in form though and a big run wouldn’t shock me.

Southfield Vic – short enough for me given I don’t know what to make of his summer Novice form and this is a deep chase. Nicholls only 0/13,2 places in this race last decade also. This is very different from those novice chases and I was happy to let him beat me at the odds, which he may.

A Good Skin- not without a chance and depends whether he is fit. Trainer decent enough record with handicap chasers returning after 60+ days. His mark keeps going up without him winning though, and he can be held up out the back which causes problems. But, he could run a big race, and is a danger..

 

The rest…

Then we are left with guessing as to fitness/future autumn targets…if all of these had a run under their belt, the majority would be dangers. I didn’t want to be guessing, even if educated guessing, as to fitness in this race. It’s that tricky time of year with more head scratching that usual.

Buachaill Alainn – he is a big price but this is deeper than last year. I didn’t like the fact he was 0/7, 2 places 60+ days off, or that trainer was 2/34 in 3m handicap chases 60+ days off, and 0/12,1 place Class 2 such runners. He is moody and will need to be ridden plenty. But, he is a big price. I will be leaving him.

Kruzhlinin – good record fresh but now 0/11,2 places 12+ runners,0/5,0p 141+. He has that weight trend to overcome. But, there could be more to come this year and given yard clearly no massive shock. Is the National a target again, and if so is the season spent building up to that with a win over hurdles along the way…

HenryVille- he has enough to prove for me after recent chase  efforts even though he is unexposed. I would want to see more in a race of this nature before parting with money on him. It wasn’t his fault the last day when running well,but there is also a stamina unknown also.

Little Jon- can he jump, will he jump? He is probably the worst jumper in the race on all known form to date. So far he looks like a small field, flat track horse. 0/11,0 places all runs undulating/very undulating tracks. He has enough to prove for me even though I have always thought he has a decent chase in him. Just needs to jump better. Does also have a stamina question, yet to prove he can’t stay though. Will watch with interest.

Killala Quay- big stamina question for me and wins have come dominating small fields. He won’t be able to do that here- happy to leave him until stamina is a bit more evident.

Upswing- if fit and raring to go could go close. Is this a prep for November chase at Cheltenham where he came second last year? He is a hold up type, right out the back. Usually. He can hit the odd fence as well. Jonjo is hot and cold. On balance happy to leave, but if he is here to win, he would have a chance.

Another Her0 – a couple of questions to answer now with the fall LTO and the break. Jonjo is actually 0/12,1 place in handicap chases at Chepstow 60+ days off. So both of this two have that minor stat against them. Maybe he uses this track to blow cobwebs away before future targets.

Buckhorn Timothy – Tizzard 0/26, 2 places with hncp chasers 60+ days off returning over 3m. Slight niggle and in any case I can’t think this one is good enough to take this race. Slight stamina q for him also

Tinker Time – a few niggles including form on undulating tracks, 0/5,0 p 131+, 0/2, 0 places track. Class question and patching recent form, some good, some not very good. Ok record fresh.

Audacious Plan – question over recent form, 0/4,1p track, 0/7,1 place 12+ runners, yet to win after a break, usually needs a run.. 0/5, 2 p 91-365 days. Class question.

Potters Cross… WON interesting indeed…finally…now he is interesting at a price I suppose. He is unexposed and the trainer’s horses are going well and she can ready them after a break if desired…he creeps in and those carrying 10-00 have done ok in this race 3/11 or so. But,on balance of his form safe to say he is inconsistent and his only recent win was in a small field. Can hit a fence also.

 

So, really, Fox Appeal is the only one in here that I don’t have what I would call a ‘major’ question against, whether it is fitness or in case of those in top 3 in weights, that trend. The odd error is the only niggle for me and I hope i get a run for my money having built him up! He has been frustrating at times but ALL i am asking for is a repeat of the Ascot/Chelt runs from this time last year. If I get one of those, we will be excited jumping the last couple of fences. A few in here can win and it wouldn’t be a shock, there are a couple who would leave me scratching my head. Rarely has Fox Appeal looked the solid bet in a race, but I think he might be here! Given the number who may come on for the run or have targets down the line, he won’t have excuses.

PACE… Killala Q, Potters Cross and Southfield Vic can get on with it. Fox Appeal was prominent the last day and he better be again here, just sitting behind these three on the inside rail. He should be able to hold his position over this trip better than he did the last day.

***

I am not going to tip in the Cesarewitch and going through all 34 runners with the stats/trends looks a bit daunting also. I will be leaving the race but there is the trends post HERE>>> If they help you find the winner, then do say.

***

JUMPS ANGLES

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

3.15 Chep- Flying Angel  UP (yep, 1 run 90 days positive)

3.50 Chep – El Terremoto (no, not against my positives,may not stop him of course0

4.25 Chep – Ballyoptic WON 8/1>9/2 (no,not against my positives, may not stop him..let’s just say NTDs horses that have had 0 runs this season have done OK at Chepstow in the past)

5.00 Chep – Little Jon (none again) UP

Lavelle

2.40 Chep- Let’s Hope So UP (ticks all three positives, 1+ run 90 days,1-5 career start and its October)

4.25 Chep – Crimson Ark 2nd 16/1 (yep, 1+ run 90 days and its October,all runners)

5.00 Chep – Fox Appeal (yep, 1+ run 90 days, October etc) UP

Ewart

2.25 Hex – Touch of Steel UP (ticks box, all handicappers…horses first chase,on back of three PUs. you never know!)

4.05 Hex- Civil Unrest (all handicappers, tick) WON 7/1

Dobbin

3.00 Hex – Wicked GamesUP (no ticks against positives,maybe if 4/1 shorter but trainer 6/158 in non handicap hurdles,2/59 with those running 60+ days off)

5.10 Hex – Lady London (no ticks again)

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio 

5.35 Chep – Golden Milan- UR

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

A few reappearing that I need to dig back out/review etc…

Harry Fry Mares 

2.40 Chep – Meribel Millie(10/1< guide) UP

 

Saturday Jumps Trainer Jockey Combos 

3.15 Chep – Rock The Kasbah (14/1<) WON 6/1

4.25 Chep- Tea In Transvaal (any odds) UP

5.00 Chep- Kruzilinin (14/1<) PU

 

Varian Fillies/Mares (25/1<)

1.45 Newm- Imtiyaaz UP

 

***

That is all for today. Hopefully some winners buried in there somewhere.

Good luck with any bets

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • I can’t get on with them, but Coral’s have just opened at 12s Josh.
    Paul

    blueboy199 07/10/16 5:43 PM Reply


  • Gordon Bennett Josh! After our 1st agreement I am now baffled. Just how many systems for the jumps this season are there? The comment I made previously was about the systems you recently sent out which has about 10 hurdle systems and 7 chase systems. I presume Golden Milan above is the only qualifier from those systems for tomorrow? Now there appears to be micro systems? And jump angles? I know I am not as regular a reader as most, but I presume they are completely different from the systems mentioned? Phew, are you religiously backing all the systems? Cos(twitter speak sorry) that would need some betting bank, along with the flat systems still running as well.

    Jim 07/10/16 6:01 PM Reply


    • Hi Jim, those list of Sept/Oct won’t all qualify against my notes I don’t think…It is confusing I agree at the moment.. I am in a rush this evening and I will sort it all out next week and clear it all up a bit/clarify. Many will ignore them/use them as a starting point etc. Yep you are right about Golden Milan. the Sept/Oct horses are all those trainers runners tomorrow, before I have seen which boxes they may or may not tick against notes. Josh

      Josh 07/10/16 6:07 PM Reply


      • Cheers, OK. If you are going to post qualifiers like Golden Milan above, I will follow those only and if in profit come the end of April I will donate, scouts honour. I will be using BF(SP) probably unless I really like early price from notes.

        Jim 07/10/16 6:24 PM Reply


  • Josh – I think I took the below from Narrowing the Field for Fox Appeal

    Race worth less than 18k | G/S or softer | Field of 13 or less | Oct-Jan | RH Tracks – as he has form of 11112123 (5/8) under such conditions.

    So doesn’t quite get optimum conditions. Not much of a price but I’m siding with Southfield Vic. Race fit and recent wins holding up well – Fort Worth ran decently earlier in the week at Hereford , and he beat that one by 20+ lengths. Buachaill Alainn at 25s is the other one for me EW. 2nd in this race a year ago off a 2lb higher mark, albeit I think this year’s renewal is a better race. Slight change of headgear and track/ground a positive. Trainer form perhaps starting to slide as Summer finishes but had a couple of winners just over a week ago.

    JV 08/10/16 8:52 AM Reply


    • It’s all about the odds with Southfield Vic. This race is very competitive and 6/1 doesn’t offer much scope.

      Wayward Lad 08/10/16 10:30 AM Reply


      • yep, esp as he does have a bit to prove in this type of race, much different to those Worcester Novice chases. nicholls yet to do that well in race either. Clearly can go well – was 9/2 when looking last evening.

        Josh 08/10/16 10:32 AM Reply


  • Hi All

    A personal selection for me this evening (not systems based)

    9.15 Newcastle – Rock Warbler 4.50

    This one was on my radar last run with Paul Hanagan booked for Oliver Greenall and dropped to 6F for the first time. He had been campaigned over 7f to 1m 1/2F and was beaten a total of 102 lengths in 3 previous runs this season.

    He was held out the back at Wolves and had to wait until the last 1/2 furlong before getting a run and swooped home just not quite getting there and I remember at the time thinking that 6F on a straight track on Tapeta would be perfect and he gets that this evening….Kevin Stott is booked and I think he has an outstanding chance against these

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 08/10/16 9:21 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve…it’s into 11/4 now…I may hold on and see if it drifts. Looks good though.
      GL.

      Tony Mc. 08/10/16 1:04 PM Reply


      • Cheers Tony

        I’m confident as i can be about this one all things being equal

        GL with yours too

        Steve Wiseman 08/10/16 1:48 PM Reply


    • Good shout …and an early one Steve, I just couldn’t take 11/4 so let it slide….of course once they win, you go…..”O no”…lol.

      Good early shout Steve..

      Tony Mc. 08/10/16 9:23 PM Reply


  • I know you will say that he is drawn bad but I am on Nakeeta in the Ces. Good form this time of year and I have 25/1.

    Over the jumps I like Between the Waters, 5.10 Hex. Also Widlehearted Woman in the 3.00 at the same track.

    Josh, good luck with the tips now that we are getting into the NH season.

    I will post again if I hear anything from the Gary Moore angle.

    martin colwell 08/10/16 11:23 AM Reply


    • Hi All/Martin, as Pat Taafe used to say of the old ‘Proper National’……it’s the last great cavalry charge left in the world. Well!, I think the same can be said of this race as well…I have gone for Nakeeta as too…for the price. This is a race in which trends can be made out a few ways…., but at the end of the day it depends on luck and which jockey places his horse correctly right through ’til the finish..GL.
      I have also gone for Cool Strutter in the 8.45 at Newcastle, and Indian Stream 5.00 Chepstow.

      Tony Mc. 08/10/16 12:51 PM Reply


    • My other 2 against the field are Startichect and Ennistown. The draw has gone out of the window…lol.

      Tony Mc. 08/10/16 12:58 PM Reply


  • The 20/1 on Golden Milan looks good value 12/1 best now,course it might drift again in live market,did Innis Shannon for the Bewley/Bewley Combination 2.25 Hexham

    gerry 08/10/16 12:45 PM Reply


  • Hi All

    A “Nearly” night on the Tapeta last night at Newcastle with just the 1 winner from good old “Fastnet Rock” an 11.0 2nd caught on the line and a 3rd at 10.0 that looked like winning……Dundalk however was much better with the first 7 races having a 1st 2nd or 3rd and 3 winners overall showing again that “Polytrack” is working well with these stallion qualifiers…….Tapeta this evening though so will see if the below can improve on last night

    5.40 Newcatle – Next Edition 13.0 (Antonius Pious 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)
    5.40 Newcastle – Hazely 5.9 (Cape Cross 1 run, 0 win, 1 place)

    6.10 Newcastle – Be Perfect 6.6 (Street Cry 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

    6.45 Newcastle – Ladofash 6.4 (Canford Cliffs 1 run, 0 win, 1 place)

    7.15 Newcastle – Chaplin Bay 11.5 (Fastnet Rock 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 place)
    7.15 Newcastle – Emmeshing 4.0 (Mastercraftsman 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)

    7.45 Newcastle – Chipping 2.6 (Dark Angel 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

    8.15 Newcastle – Pulsating 14.5 (Dragon Pulse 4 runs, 1 win, 3 places)

    8.45 Newcastle – Fools Dream 19.0 (Showcasing 5 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    8.45 Newcastle – Ershaad 15.0 (Acclamation 4 runs, 0 wins, 2 places)

    9.15 Newcastle – Call Me Crockett 8.0 (Intense Focus 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

    3 races I like at Chepstow (stats based)

    2.05 Capeland 2.86
    3.50 Cobra De Mai 12.0
    4.25 Debdebdeb 8.8 / Tea in Transvaal 9.6 / Crimson Ark 23.0

    Good Luck all with your selections

    Steve Wiseman 08/10/16 1:46 PM Reply


    • Good luck with this approach, I will watch with interest. Is there some scope to refine this approach to produce less runners I wonder?

      martin colwell 08/10/16 2:38 PM Reply


  • bit left field but ive backed my reward in the cesarwitch fits a few of the trends for the race good jockey got 80/1 bet victor 5places ew

    antony church 08/10/16 1:50 PM Reply


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