FREE DAILY POST: 07/10/16 (COMPLETE)

MEMBERS: Note that only Newton Abbot race on Friday and as such there will no notes. They are a ‘summer jumping’ track and only have two meetings left this year, before resuming again next summer. A previous free TTP report for the summer jumps can be found HERE>>>

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Weekend Plans… Most of my attention will be on Chepstow I suspect. There is a decent 3m+ handicap chase with some trends/stats available to guide. There are also trends for the 2m handicap hurdle which I may share- without tipping in it as such. I also believe there is some big race on the flat or something. Given the number of massive priced winners of the Cesarewitch I will have a look at some stats. I doubt I will tip in it but any profile may lead the way, or not. I will probably share all such trends/stats for free this weekend.

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JUMPS MICRO SYSTEMS PORTFOLIO:

Completed. 8 Chase Micros.

CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE REPORT>>>

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TIPS 

none.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

A few notes/starting points to use how you please… laying has generally been a good approach 🙂

  • 3.25 York – Cape Cova – 7/1| 8/1 (UP – 4th) … Johnny G has some rather decent stats that are rife for further digging at some point but for now, in the last two years he is …69/220,115 places with LTO winners, 31% +64 SP. Those returning after a break of 60+ days… 70/223,119 places…31% +37 SP. Now I suspect there may be the odd big winner in there but as a set of data it isn’t too bad and I will add some ‘digging time’ to the to do list. This one ticks both those boxes here. Gosden is on fire at the moment also- 11/34,20 places in the last 14 days, 3/15,6 places at York in the last year. He is 4/16,8 places with the jockey in class 2 flat handicaps in last 5 years, 2/5,3 places when teaming up over this distance. The horse steps up in trip and I suppose the expectation is that he improves even further for it. It is a 3yo only handicap so I suppose anything could happen. Plenty of these are doing a few things differently and others will improve also. There is a bit of pace on and hopefully he can just sit and track it. I won’t be going mad but given the above probably can’t resist a 1/2 point at those odds. Maybe the market will guide after the break. 
  • 3.00 Newton Abbot – just some notes/thoughts… I have had a flick through the card and this one looks most interesting race for me personally (the 3m+ handicap chase will be a good watch but a tight little affair as market indicates)…I think I have to agree with Gerry as below and think Young Dillon 2nd 8/1>6/1 looks a decent price for a small EW wager…if the headgear works again. He is fit, in form, progressive and he is a proven stayer. There should also be more to come. The trainer remains in great form, 3/7, 3 places last 7 days. He is 4/10,5 places in handicap hurdles at the track and 2/7,5 places in class 2 handicap hurdles over this distance. He knows how to train a staying handicapper as we know. 8s feels a bit too big to me. He is also top on the geegeez speed figs which may boost confidence. The Romford Pele  WON 7/1 is interesting- I wonder if this is a pipe opener for a chase at Cheltenham coming up – he ran in the Murphy Group handicap 3m3f last Nov for example.  He has a big weight and you would think that something may have more in hand than him here. He is on a big mark but based on that last hurdle run, given this distance will suit more, I couldn’t say he wont go close though. Just depends whether he is here to win naybe…2/6,4 places after breaks of 60+ days. He will be hoping to improve on the trainers record of just 3/40 in C2 handicap hurdles though! The Nicholls horse could be decent but does have stamina to prove and he wears the hood because he is a keen sort- he won;t want to be that here, fresh after a break otherwise he won’t be getting home. Short enough but could have any amount up his sleeve. GoodBye Dancer will need to improve for the distance- I don’t think a repeat of recent form will be good enough here- big Nige ‘only’ 8/78,19p in C2 handicap hurdles last 5 years. So, I think a little EW bet on Young Dillon for me and we shall see how that goes. Another Lay maybe!

 

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JUMPS ANGLES 

Sept/Oct Trainers

(Don’t forget you can read these notes in the Free Reports/Systems section HERE>>> When I say ‘ticks positive, or doesn’t etc’ these are what I am referring to…)

Well a perfect 3/3 from these on Thursday 9/2, 9/2, 3/1 5/2… and these notes seems to be doing the job so far. Hopefully some of you backed one or more..

NTD

3.00 NA – Goodbye Dancer UP (ticks box of 1 run last 90 days)

5.15 NA – ScotchTown(no positive ticks against my notes. 0/2, 1 place in NHF races in recent years)

Lavelle

4.40 NA – Mrs Robbin UP 7/2 (ticks positives, its October,fitness positive also)

 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Varian Listed Fillies/Group (25/1<)

2.05 New – Pichola Dance UP

4.50 New- Dawn of Hope UP

OTT TEST

3.25 York – Against The Odds (16/1< guide)

5.00 York – Zaeem (16/1< guide)

 

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Do You Fancy Any Of Those Above (2 votes max)

  • Cape Cova (15%, 11 Votes)
  • Young Dillon (27%, 20 Votes)
  • The Romford Pele (7%, 5 Votes)
  • Goodbye Dancer (11%, 8 Votes)
  • Alcala (4%, 3 Votes)
  • Mrs Robbin (25%, 19 Votes)
  • DONT FANCY ANY OF THEM (12%, 9 Votes)

Total Voters: 59

 

(poll will close at around 12pm)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Sam Twiston Davies could probably have the choice between 3 horses in the 3pm at Newton Abbat but has stayed with Young Dillon for Newland,won quite well last week,trainer and jockey in fine form,8/1 probably worth a stab

    gearoid180468 06/10/16 6:50 PM Reply


  • Warren Gratrex is 3-3 nhf at Newton Abbot but yard not firing in winners but at 15/2 might be worth taking risk,usually the winners go off at short prices

    gearoid180468 06/10/16 7:15 PM Reply


    • The stable has been out of form for ages. Perhaps they will come back in the NH season with a few winners?

      martin colwell 07/10/16 10:30 AM Reply


      • They haven’t had too many runners in truth, only 6 in last 30 days, 3 have placed…0/4, 3 places last 14 days. The three that placed were 2/1 or shorter and clearly performed against expectations but they were not tailed off really. And they would have been running the lower quality animals at their disposal, waiting to unleash the big guns. I certainly wouldn’t use ‘trainer form’ as the sole reason to be put off any of theirs,of you like their chance for other reasons. Need to see a bit more evidence I think.

        Josh 07/10/16 10:35 AM Reply


  • Just read through the stats (hurdles) Josh, interesting as ever. As I’ve mentioned before I am not the biggest fan of stats esp those with a high profit figure but an average strike rate. Reason being there is usually a big price winner skewing the figures in there. So it would be handy to know how many of these systems have had a 25/1+ winner. Don’t get me wrong big winners are great but if you have to wait 5-10 years for the next one can take patience and funds to say the least. Cheers.

    P.S. Chase stats SR look better than hurdlers but again details of high price winners would be interesting

    Jim 06/10/16 8:19 PM Reply


    • Hi Jim. I have been careful I think to ensure no big price winners are responsible for all the profit etc albeit there is the odd one amongst that lot. It’s clear I should probably produce a detailed version with tables for all trainers by year as well as a reflection on odds etc and stats for those 12/1< say. I will add that to the to do list next week.

      Josh 06/10/16 9:44 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh, I dont think a full table and year on year is necessary but thats up to you. I just think its worth pointing out to people if a system has had a big winner in its figures. Especially as they look so promising. As you point out you wouldn’t expect an exact repeat of what you’ve researched. However you would surely expect them to perform well given the profit figure so how that figure would alter with a big winner taken out is always interesting.

        Jim 07/10/16 7:38 AM Reply


        • Yep I get where you are coming from and will go through and pull out any further info that may be of use. I will keep that ‘top level’ report and just pull together a new one for anyone that wants it. Of course those figures are to SP as well- some of them, as detailed in one of the chase micros- move a lot leading up to the race and taking morning prices/bog would improve most of those SP results dramatically also.

          Josh 07/10/16 7:46 AM Reply


          • Nice 1. We appear to agree for once. Onwards and upwards! Point noted on SP/ep/bog. Again can be an issue with systems and why one persons results can differ greatly to another persons. But as I said those figures do look very promising.

            Jim 07/10/16 8:21 AM Reply


            • Blimey, so we do- I need a lie down 🙂 Yep, they look good on paper and plenty of logic there with some unique angles. Time will tell if they pay over time, everything crossed. GL
              Josh

              Josh 07/10/16 9:36 AM Reply


  • Staggered by the price (12/1) of Vintage Vinnie in the 3.35 at NA tomorrow and have backed accordingly. Race fit, trainer won this last year, Virgilio has had just 1 chase start, Brother Tedd none, and he’s weighted to be very close to San Benedeto on a line through Presenting Arms. Maybe the 10lb penalty will stop him but would hope that Jonathan Moore takes a firm lead and really puts the others fitness and lack of experience under pressure. Maybe he had too hard a race at Market Rasen. Virgilio may be the one here but at 12/1 very, very happy to take a chance.

    JV 06/10/16 8:53 PM Reply


    • I am in VV and two on watered Newmarket

      Pab 07/10/16 12:35 PM Reply


  • I did hear a while ago that Gold Faith was being targeted at the Old Rowley Cup, 3.45 NKT. 25/1 available now.

    Also Haworth, 1.45 York, was badly drawn LTO, I think that he may have some improvement? 20/1 available.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 06/10/16 9:07 PM Reply


  • A good set for Chelmsford Steve….and I didn’t mind you making an error in the last. It gave me another 3/1 winner, so a good day all around lol.
    Cheers mate.

    Tony Mc. 06/10/16 9:41 PM Reply


    • Hi Tony

      Glad you were on the right one or should that be the wrong one lol….One things for sure horses bred out of “Rail Link” enjoy the polytrack another good winner for that sire

      Cheers
      Steve

      Steve Wiseman 06/10/16 10:50 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Another Qualifier for Josey Gordon tomorrow

    3.45 Newmarket – Banish 15.00 for Hugo Palmer

    Another angle i have is for Ben Curtis when riding for William Haggis under certain criteria throws up these stats 21 rides, 10 winners, 15 places 47.62% Win SR & 71.43% place SR……he has two qualifiers at York tommorow and hopefully will not be feeling the same as their names after they have ran lol….

    1.45 York – Battered 7.0
    4.30 York – Crushed 8.0

    Be back later tomorrow with another bash at the “Tapeta” at Newcastle

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 06/10/16 11:09 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve, good luck. Fingers crossed a few winners scattered among these pages/comments today again.

      Josh 07/10/16 9:38 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Thanks yes hopefully some more today…..Good luck with your selections I like the look of Cape Cova based on those stats and will follow you in on that one. I agree with Johnny G he seems to fire in a lot of winners especially in the autumn where he horses tend to improve again, I can see him and & Saeed Bin Suroor dominating these last couple of months in terms of quantity of winners.

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 07/10/16 1:29 PM Reply


    • Only problem here Steve is no wins from stall 15 up, so maybe small saver. A pity. A blip on 11 as well.
      GL.

      Tony Mc. 07/10/16 12:10 PM Reply


      • Hi Tony

        Just had a look at that 3.45 race for the draw, I wouldn’t be overly concerned, breaking it down to course / distance & going there has only been 8 runners from stall 15 no winners as you say but 3 have placed and over the 1 mile 4f distance i would like to think she would have every chance of occupying a good position…Here’s hoping so anyway 🙂

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 07/10/16 1:19 PM Reply


  • Thanks to all you guys for sharing your valuable info much appreciated.

    roybedford 07/10/16 6:33 AM Reply


  • I would also pass on my thanks for the very informative posts on hesr thanks guys

    George Simpson 07/10/16 8:31 AM Reply


  • Some free stats/pointers for Cesarewitch if anyone wants a flick through… http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/10/07/free-cesarewitch-statstrendspointers/

    A members only Chepstow post now being pulled together also.

    Josh 07/10/16 10:52 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh.
    The 3.00 N/A is a fascinating race and having had a look at all the participants I am left with feeling Alcala is risky today but possibly on for later. Admittedly a speed track would seem to suit but HC wins for yard are 1/16 here. A case can be made for a few here but I think Milan Bound is the one to be with. Geraghty on return from injury over for one ride on last years winner so proven track ability and although form a bit patchy Jonjo’s handicap hurdles stats here 30% plus so another indication of a big run expected.

    Tom 07/10/16 12:04 PM Reply


    • Hi Tom, yep I couldn’t say much to put you off him, especially given that he won the race last year. Jonjo’s have been in and out for an age now, never know what you are going to get- couple of fancied ones Southwell went backwards,then he had a chaser run well at Hereford yesterday. I thought there were a couple more interesting ones in here, and this race looks deeper than the one he won last year. But, he can play a part for sure- I won’t be shocked if he went in clearly. GL hopefully one of us can land the spoils.

      Josh 07/10/16 12:08 PM Reply


  • A couple more for today.

    The Moore stable send out Guns of Leros again, 3.25 York. He may still be improving?

    I also like Gifted Master in the 2.40 at Newmarket.

    martin colwell 07/10/16 12:39 PM Reply


  • Excellent shout in the 3.00pm Josh a very nice forecast…. anybody?

    Steve Wiseman 07/10/16 3:09 PM Reply


    • Nope- I never do that bloody bet sadly! You??

      Josh 07/10/16 3:12 PM Reply


      • I have TRF Pele in a Curtis double with VV. Fingers crossed.

        JV 07/10/16 3:15 PM Reply


      • Ah no not a bet I regularly do either

        Steve Wiseman 07/10/16 4:22 PM Reply


  • Stallion Qualifiers for Newcastle this evening please tred carefully if involved as “tapeta” is proving volotile hopefully a winner or three there though…Also below is a first attempt at Dundalk on the “polytrack” which has a sound base of data, I have included draw stats here as they are relevant on this track, The sire “War Front” has outstanding stats here and there is a runner in the 7.00pm

    Newcastle 5.40 – Kirtling 11.0 (Araafa 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)
    Newcastle 5.40 – Taopix 3.25 (Rip Van Winkle 1 run, 0 win, 1 place)

    Newcastle 6.10 – Rashee 3.05 (Fastnet Rock 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

    Newcastle 6.40 – No Selection

    Newcastle 7.10 – Hard to Handel 7.6 (Stimulation 2 runs, 0 wins, 2 places)

    Newcastle 7.40 – Bruny Island 250.0 (Bahamian Bounty 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    Newcastle 7.40 – La Haule Lady 100.0 (Helmet 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

    Newcastle 8.10 – Chalieb 10.5 (Exceed & Excel 1 run, 0 wins, 1 place)
    Newcastle 8.10 – Pontecarlo Boy 46.0 (Piccolo 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

    Newcastle 8.40 – Atholblair Boy 15.0 (Frozen Power 4 runs, 1 win, 2 places)

    Newcastle 9.10 – Rich Again 5.2 (Amadeus Wolf 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

    5F – Top Draw 1,2,6,7,5
    Dundalk 5.30 – Sammyjade 6.2 (Zoffany 4 runs, 1 win, 3 places) Drawn 6
    Dundalk 5.30 – Blockstar Girl 500.0 (Zoffany 4 runs, 1 win, 3 places) Drawn 2

    7F – Top Draw 3,1,5,4,8
    Dundalk 6.00 – Veil of Stars 6.0 (Vale of York 8 runs, 2 wins, 3 places) Drawn 1

    7F – Top Draw 3,1,5,4,8
    Dundalk 6.30 – Taj Mahal 3.7 (Galileo 32 runs, 5 wins, 12 places) Drawn 3

    7F – Top Draw 3,1,5,4,8
    Dundalk 7.00 – Leo Minor 3.7 (War Front 14 runs, 8 wins, 13 places) Drawn 5
    Dundalk 7.00 – Rebel De Lope 8.0 (Lope De Vega 10 runs, 3 wins, 6 places) Drawn 1

    7F – Top Draw 3,1,5,4,8
    Dundalk 7.30 – Kadra 12.0 (Holy Roman Emperor 97 runs,16 wins,32 places) Drawn 2
    Dundalk 7.30 – Suvenna 15.0 (Arcano 25 runs, 5 wins, 7 places) Drawn 5

    1M – Top Draw 1 – 5
    Dundalk 8.00 – Manorov 5.0 (Sholokov 9 runs, 2 wins, 5 places) Drawn 7
    Dundalk 8.00 – Crossingoz 80.0 (Aussie Rules 52 runs, 11 wins, 23 places) Drawn 12

    1M – Top Draw 1 -5
    Dundalk 8.30 – Six Silver Lane 6.4 (Aussie Rules 52 runs, 11 wins, 23 places) Drawn 9

    1m 4F – Top Draw 1, 2, 14, 11, 4
    Dundalk 9.00 – Bittern 14.0 (New Approach 3 runs, 1 win, 2 places) Drawn 14

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 07/10/16 5:17 PM Reply


    • Tx for that steve. Would not 6.40 Newcastle 3 Three Duchesses be a qualifier out of Dutch Art?

      mozzer 07/10/16 5:32 PM Reply


      • Hi Mozzer

        Good question, I have just re-ran the stats for Dutch Art on the Tapeta at Newcastle and it is showing 7 runs 1 win 1 place….I think previously I had ran the stats for Newcastle 2016 only thinking it would then just show tapeta but to my horror it has included races on the turf where Dutch Art had done very well so please ignore stats shown previously for this sire…7-1-1 is the correct ones and the only win was over 5F. Sorry for the confusion but you know what will happen now Three Duchesses will romp home 🙁

        Steve Wiseman 07/10/16 6:18 PM Reply


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