TTP Jumps Notes: 06/10/16 (COMPLETE)

Qualifiers below. Some Notes also …

 

EXETER 

2.55

Mighty Missile (all handicaps) 8/1 (UP)

Notes: trainer 0/4, 3 places last 14 days, 3/9,4 places in C4 hncp hurdles here 5 years

Ladies Dancing (handicap hurdles) 33/1 (UP)

Notes: Trainers SR for this angle possibly the lowest in whole guide at 14%, 5/35,17 places. The winners have paid over time, and made up for the many losers. The place stats are decent also, nearly 50% winning or placing. Horse is back to last winning mark, before counting 3lb claim. Blinkers back on. Jockey is 5/18,9 places here on handicap hurdlers.

3.30

Tom Neary (all handicaps + hncp chases) 14/1 (UP)

Jumped and travelled well on the whole and had me worried for a time! As it turns out he faded up the home straight suggesting, along with the drift, that he needed the run. One for the notebook at a very moderate level possibly. They will be pleased he got round. Was 3rd approaching third last before tiring.

Note: trainer 0/22, 1 place with chasers returning after 60+ days last 5 years.

Pawn Star (hncp chases) 9/4 WON 5/2

Much better jumping around RH here it seems. The only young/progressive/fit one in the race does the business. Hopefully some of you backed him, even if if I left him.

 

5.15

Billy My Boy (hncp h) 9/2 –  3rd 3/1 (not sure if he took to blinkers there)

Note: Same as for Ladies Dancing, same jockey. Trainer 2/12,5 places C5 handicap hurdles here, +4 SP.

Culum Counsellor (hncp h) 12/1 2nd (photo) 16/1 SP*

*that run maybe proving that form reading etc in C5 handicap hurdles can be problematic! 

Note: Same as above, bar jockey. First ride for trainer I think.

Starlit Night (hncp h) 66/1 UP

Note: As above, all three trained by C Down. Again think jockeys first ride for trainer.

****

HEREFORD

these are very much just a guide given there has been no racing here for three years or so. I suspect the racing community will want to show support for the track and that could mean trainers visiting here more than they usually would, at least initially. Anyway, those who had done well in 2010/11/12.

I won’t count these in the recorded ‘systematic’ results this season.

3.40 –

Bobble Emerald (all hncps – hncp h) 10/1

Note: running at Ludlow so may not turn up. Not much else to add. (this entry clearly an indication, hacked up at Ludlow, 10s.

4.50 –

Boss In Boots (hncp c) 5/1

Note: Vaughan ‘in form’ 7/27, 8 places last 14 days. ‘Only’ 3/54,5 places with stable newcomers last two years. Blinkers off, first time hood on.

Lake Chapala (hncp c) 13/2

Note: Trained by Vaughan also.

 

***

My Views:

I will just touch on Exeter here… I think Billy My Boy 9/2 is looking like the only one I want to back. He is fit and in form. He has track form and is dropping into a C5 here, having been running in C4s. He is also a qualifier on my new Handicap Hurdle portfolio- the trainer doing well with top weights. This indicates he knows when to drop them in class, and the out class them say, with a big weight. His last win was in a C5 handicap hurdle. He is also a prominent racer and has form on good. I would like to think I will get a run for my money…

I am not sure I can say that about many of the others. Pawn Star has a chance but 9/4 isn’t a price I like to touch that often and I wasn’t too convinced with his jumping LTO. This is a different test to NA and this type of undulating track is an unknown. Young and progressive. Tom Neary has run appallingly on his last four runs, falling on two of those. He has form, jumping, stamina and fitness to prove. Even for me that seems too much 🙂 Too many questions for me, even at 14s. BUT this is his first run at the distance. Those 60+ day stats don’t fill you with enthusiasm either. The other two Down horses in the 5.15 have some form questions to answer- Culm Counsellor 0/14, 0 place in carrer to date.

So, looks like just the one for me from official ‘qualifiers’

Good luck with any bets.

***

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    I like the look of Aces Over Eights 4 50 Her, its Kerry Lee’s local track and yard going well

    Dan

    hockley1 06/10/16 1:29 AM Reply


    • Hi Dan, yep he looks very interesting…he qualifies on a K Lee micro I have, posted on Today’s free daily post…http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/10/05/free-daily-post-061016-update-1/

      She has a 30% SR with handicap chases that have NOT had between 1-3 runs in last 90 days, 12/1<... essentially targets those chasers who are fresh/fit, or those that are 'hard fit' and have had plenty of recent racing. Quite simply but has done very well in recent years, both her and her father. I wrote an 'in depth' trainer in focus piece on K Lee which you can find in the Free Reports/Systems bit...or here... http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/01/07/trainer-in-focus-kerry-lee/

      You would suspect this may become a target track of hers then, time will tell. Good luck.

      Josh 06/10/16 8:26 AM Reply


  • I’m off to Hereford shortly – it’s really a watching day for me though especially as some of the non-runners have significantly changed the shape of the races.
    Aces Over Eights does stand out as a decent bet she has course form and has won on fast ground plus all those Kerry Lee stats that point to a bold showing. Nothing else jumps off the page

    finalflight 06/10/16 11:32 AM Reply


    • enjoy. Yep I tend to agree, I have backed him and touch wood get a run for money. And that angle should very much pay over time anyway. Thankfully those two good chases still have most of their runners. The 3m+ chase looks fascinating..if Roc D is fit I think he may be the ‘at the track bet’ for fun. I found it a bit of a head scratcher – think we may know once and for all if Roc D can stay this trip and will be a 3 miler this season- if fit. Plenty of other fit, in form horses proven in conditions though.

      Josh 06/10/16 11:47 AM Reply


  • Paddock inspection showed that Aces Over Eights needed the race and I didn’t back her, she certainly ran as though she needed the race to put her right

    finalflight 06/10/16 10:24 PM Reply


    • Good to know and I agree. Slight drift before hand concerned me. Jumped and travelled well on the whole. Expect to be out soon as I think she looks best on decent ground. Will hopefully get my money back with interest soon. Cheers for that.

      Josh 06/10/16 10:35 PM Reply


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