FREE DAILY POST: 04/10/16 (complete) (+ Systems)

Members: There are no UK jumps meetings on Tuesday and no qualifiers from my Irish Bonus stats. As such there is no TTP post.

RESULTS: You can flick through results from ‘Week One’ of TTP: Jumps 2016/17 results HERE>>>

Hopefully it all makes sense- the headline figures from backing them all systematically , without considering any other factors (there are no odds caps for these stats) are below.

If, collectively, they averaged +9 points every week I would take that. That would be around +250 points over the course of the season…here’s hoping 🙂

Summary

Week 1 Totals:

General Race Types: 6/30, 9 places = +15.75 points

Micro Angles: 2/ 13, 5 places = +13 points

Total including multiple qualifiers: 8/43,14 places  = +28.75

Total 1x  1 point only : 6/39, 11 places = +9.75 points

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NEW JUMPS MICRO SYSTEMS

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD>>>

 

 

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TIPS 

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

  • 6.40 Kempton: Song Maker – 9/2… (2nd) seems a shade big to me here given some of the stats…Appleby does very well with those making their second career start, 51/155,94 places in last 2 years, +24 SP. The trainer is in form – 7/28, 16 places last 14 days and 6./18,11 places with William Buick in last 14 days, all runners. In course and distance non handicap races, in this class, he is 11/42, 23 places +15 SP. If the market is to be believed this is a three horse race and given the other two are having their third race, arguably she is open to more improvement at this stage. She steps up in trip also, which looks likely to help on breeding I think. The fav, in what could have been a better race, was able to dictate a steady pace and kick clear – she still couldn’t win- I would have thought that would concern fav backers but maybe she will just bolt up, as the market suggests. Appleby has one in the following race also and he is up there in the market and also looks fancied to go well enough. ALL of the same stats, bar the second start stats, would apply to that one also…Agathonia

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

 

TTP FLAT: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

TO NOTE: This test/trial of these systems researched as part of this guide hasn’t pulled up any trees. I do not plan on posting any more qualifiers unless requested. If you have been using them successfully as a guide to find you winners- even if just one of you – and you would like me to continue posting them, do say so and I will carry on.  I will reflect on results after the end of the flat season. 

 

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Post Complete.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Luca Cumani does quite well with 2yr olds at kempton with the odd big priced one popping up.In the 6.40 he has Great Court ranging in price from 8-14/1,at that price might be worth taking the best odds available at the risk of it shortening tomorrow,of course it could drift further or it might just not be that good

    gearoid180468 03/10/16 6:59 PM Reply


  • African showgirl 3.4 Brighton has flashed up on a couple of my micros .5/1 any thoughts?

    jamie2255 03/10/16 8:32 PM Reply


    • For what my views on the flat are worth (a large pinch of salt!) She looks solid enough to me at that price, 11/2- could go safety first EW but that depends on your approach – blatantly didn’t stay the last day did she, over 10f? Drops back 2f here back on decent ground. She idles a bit and you never get the feeling she fully puts it in- which could mean she still is ahead of her mark. She does need to be delivered late and there dependent on a well run race, and there is a little bit of pace on I think. On what they have all done on paper to date, she is the only one with winning form over going, class, course, distance. her track form could stand her in good stead. I may have a nibble myself. Some caution as race is packed full of 3 yos/4yos and at some point some of them may show more. But she seems solid to me. GL.

      Josh 04/10/16 7:28 AM Reply


      • Safe to say if I think a flat horse has a chance, you are probably best laying the thing! 🙂 4th, where all solid EW bets to nothing finish!

        Josh 04/10/16 3:42 PM Reply


        • Didn’t like the drift at the start .Close but no cigar

          Jamie 04/10/16 4:09 PM Reply


          • yep, you knew your fate with that one as she walked out to 7s. She looks tricky, maybe is handicapped up to best, had to come wide etc. Never mind. Hopefully 6.40 can win to end my own day in profit.

            Josh 04/10/16 4:22 PM Reply


  • One for a each way poke on Tuesday – Born Innocent, 4.20 Lei. Badly drawn LTO but ran better than its placing. Some 25/1 about now.

    martin colwell 03/10/16 9:42 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin, I have it on my to watch list, but ideally needs it a bit firmer….worry if more rain. That done her at Hamilton. if she can just avoid being swallowed here, she has a good ew chance……i’ll be having a small wager on her.
      Best of luck.

      Tony Mc. 04/10/16 11:54 AM Reply


  • years ago before BOG was prolific,I had an account with an australian bookie, that gave SP+ on all winning bets, SP was rounded up to next higher. cant remember the name now. Australia looks like the way to go now for me, as I cannot get a £20 bet now on any online BOG bookie. also in certain states in Australia, bookies have been forced to accept up to £25 at any price on anything, pity not the case hear! am looking to see if can get an account with them. does anyone know the name of that sp+ bookie?

    malcolm pendrey 04/10/16 10:47 AM Reply


    • A brief internet search (sp plus) brings up Centrebet, Malcolm…is it them?
      Paul

      blueboy199 04/10/16 11:13 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Just like to say Jump stats were a great read and have started to look profitable.
    Glad you send me the runners for the day as I am not HRB saying that I have not backed all the selections, missed the first one 12/1 on the day you published it.
    Going on I am looking forward to the Micro Angle H H with interest.

    Just one query
    Stats Book.
    Taking the Fontwell page and the Dan Skelton references as an example, it reads:-

    8 bets/5wins/6places etc etc. Don’t understand how he could have 5 winners and 6 places from only 8 bets. Did wonder if perhaps he had more than one runner in some races, but it says 8 bets and not 8 races?

    Maybe it has already been raised but still a great read.

    Mike

    Mike Dennis 04/10/16 11:13 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike…ah I knew I forget to explain something… good question… the PLACES stats always include the WINNERS as well.

      So, from those 8 bets…he has only had 2 horses to finish out of the frame, 5 have one, and one further horse has placed.

      Does that make sense?
      Josh

      Josh 04/10/16 11:30 AM Reply


  • hi paul, just done what you did, it was centrebet. clicked on site, only to see that at the top said all clients to be soon transferred to william hill as taken over by them. game over! I cannot get a £5 bet on william hill now.

    malcolm pendrey 04/10/16 11:17 AM Reply


  • Guys I don’t normally send out tips on this site as I am not in the same class as some of you but have one today that you guys with all the software can dissect.

    3.50 Leicester Classic Collection. Only one run this season 11/2.

    Mike

    Mike Dennis 04/10/16 11:19 AM Reply


  • Today the Moore stable have two favourites running that won LTO. They both should go well but are no real price.

    I see Mark Johnston has four at KP this evening. I am not so confident when they send four runners as opposed to one or two. I guess that they will hope for at least one winner?

    Apart from Born Innocent I have also backed Astra Hall each way today, 3.30 Cat. 12/1 ish.

    Quiet day for me.

    martin colwell 04/10/16 12:27 PM Reply


    • Been busy recently so haven’t posted on here much (plus my last 8 picks have come either 1 or 2 places out from getting a return so you’re never fully motivated to spend time doing write ups) but I also like Astra Hall which I thought was a big price. Last run blew away the cobwebs and hasn’t ran a bad race at this level with cut in the ground. Has got a lovely draw and should lead from start to finish. Only concern is the ability of the jockey or if they don’t want him winning today.

      I also like Oat Couture in the 17:10 at Brighton, Walshingham Grange in the 16:50 at Leicester and Noble Gift in the 15:50 at Leicester.

      Nick Mazur 04/10/16 12:47 PM Reply


    • I think the Johnston stable would be over the moon with any winners at the moment. He’s on the cold list with around 40 consecutive losers in the last ten days.
      This is a stable i have commented about on several websites. The man is awful at placing his horses. If backing his horses to a £1 stake you would have lost a large amount of money over the past four seasons. He’s currently over £300 down to a £1 stake this season. If you want to follow a stable blindly, you can do no worse than following R. Beckett. He regularly produces a profit over a season.

      Roddo 04/10/16 5:41 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Thanks for your jumps micro systems looks very interesting and good SR & profits across all angles looking forward to see how they go….I’m presently looking at some interesting angles for Chepstow on Saturday and will post back later in the week with those….

    There are 2 x qualifiers on the Apprentice angles today both for George Wood

    2.20 Leicester – Kyllachys Tale 180.0 (R A Teal- 8 rides, 3 wins, 5 places)
    4.20 Leicester – Lucky Louie 17.0 (R A Teal – 37.5% win SR, 62.5% place SR)

    The odds available on these apprentice angles are keeping good on the most part despite there success 1 place today would return a profit but here’s hoping for more 🙂

    The Stallion / Distance / Class “test” for the AW tracks have provided some interesting stats so far with Polytrack working out well and Tapeta not so well

    Polytrack has provided 9 winners from 16 races although there has been multiple selections in some races and Tapeta only providing 2 short price winners from 16 races again with multiple selections, Kempton (Polytrack) is on again this evening so will post up later possible selections this meeting last week provided 6 out of 8 winners so will be interesting to see how they perform this week.

    A first attempt at using the “negative” stats on Tapeta i:e worst performing sires along with the worst draws provided 3 out of 3 losers including a fav (in fact all worst performing sires lost on the card at Wolves) so that part had a promising start and is worth investigating further any thoughts please let me know?

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 04/10/16 1:34 PM Reply


    • hi Steve,
      cheers – yep tried to keep the SR high this time, and try and think more out the box on the angles front- we shall see how they go in live play. But, plenty of logic behind most of them and reasons why a horse may improve on a past performance say/run well.

      Yea I don’t have much interest in laying personally – but that sire/draw idea is interesting – if history says they will simply not handle the track, and combined with being in the carpark etc you may have something to go at there- doubt too many qualifiers in a price range which is comfortable for laying – 3/1< say, or maybe shorter...but with a %bank approach say, that could be an interesting one worth exploring... on flip side, if a shorter priced one looks up against it on those stats, it provides a starting point for knowing which fav to take on, and attempting to find the value selections to take them on with. Interested how that goes. Josh

      Josh 04/10/16 1:57 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Stallion Qualifiers for Kempton this evening

    5.40 Kempton – Dragon Dream 10.5 (Dragon Pulse 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

    6.40 Kempton – Syndicate 2.1 (Dansili 4 runs, 1 win, 3 places)
    6.40 Kempton – Illaunmore 20.0 (Shamardal 6 runs, 3 wins, 4 places)

    7.10 Kempton – Agathonia 4.2 & Secret Soul 8.0 (Street Cry 3 runs 1 win, 2 places)

    7.40 Kempton – Cryptic 3.1 (Lord Shanakil 2 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    7.40 Kempton – Jabbar 9.8 (Medicean 4 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    7.40 Kempton – Mustaqqil 10.0 (Invincible Spirit 6 runs, 1 win, 4 places)
    7.40 Kempton – Thecornishbaron 9.4 (Bushranger 1 run, 1 win, 1 place)

    8.10 Kempton – Capton 11.0 (Cape Cross 4 runs, 1 win, 2 places)
    8.10 Kempton – Kerrera 40.0 (Champs Elysses 6 runs, 2 wins, 4 places)

    8.40 Kempton – Prairie Town 70.0 (High Chapparal 2 runs, 1 win, 1 place)

    9.10 Kempton – Memories Galore 4.0 (Invincible Spirit 3 runs, 1 win, 1 place)
    9.10 Kempton – Salvatore Fury 25.0 (Strategic Prince 3 runs, 0 wins, 2 places)

    No short price lays worth mentioning, Fair Selene 5.40 Kempton will find it hard to win from 12 out of Equiano 3 runs 0 wins 0 places over the C & D

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 04/10/16 5:36 PM Reply


  • Just read through the stats Josh, interesting as ever. As ive mentioned before I am not the biggest fan of stats esp those with a high profit figure but an average strike rate. Reason being there is usually a big price winner skewing the figures in there. So it would be handy to know how many of these systems have had a 25/1+ winner. Dont get me wrong big winners are great but if you have to wait 5-10 years for the next one can take patience and funds to say the least. Cheers.

    Jim 06/10/16 8:14 AM Reply


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