FREE DAILY POST: 26/09/2016 (complete)

TIPS

none.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Not much to go on today but a couple of races to keep an eye on…

  • 2.40 Bath – Mendacious Harpy 13/2 (UP)| Glittering 33/1 (UP)- These two have massive Geegeez speed figures in here compared to the rest – 78 and 70, the next best 55. That always catches the eye as being of some interest, albeit hit and miss if that translates into a race winning performance. But, an interesting starting point. We shall see how they go. The former has solid enough turf form for this level and is in form having won twice in jersey. The latter hasn’t done much at all yet and I have no idea how he has that figure. The fact I don’t fully understand these speed figures as yet is one reason I only use them as  a guide/another layer of information. Gets first time cheekpieces here and may not have relished soft LTO.
  • 3.30 NA – Canicallyouback – 4/1(2nd 5/2 – no excuses there,went to plan,two of them took each other on. Next Sensation,to his credit,found plenty when looked like selection may come and grab him) I was just intrigued by the pace set-up in this race. Four of them (bar selection and Helium) really do like to get on with it. They can’t all lead here and I thought they may either cut each others throats, or be going too quick to safely jump fences in the early part of the race. If one of these can lead all the way then that performance should be marked up. I suppose at his best Next Sensation would see these off but I can’t see them hanging around here. Four of them are proper out and out front runners. The jockeys will know that and it will be intriguing how this unfolds. It should suit both this horse, who is tricky and has to be delivered late, and the natural waiting style of his jockey. He could track them all and pick up the pieces in the home straight. A CD winner, this flat/sharp 16f may be perfect for him.

 

 

JUMPS NOTES

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

2.30 NA – BallyBolley (no ticks against my positive stats)

3.00 NA – Tenmpleross (as above, no ticks. Market would indicate both expected to go well)

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MICRO SYSTEMS

none.

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

4.55 Ham – Amy Blair  (any odds) WON 13/2

 

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That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • 4.00 Nab – Jonagold 11/1 with 365

    my e/w stab for tomorrow

    Nice progress through his novice races, the last of which I think is being overlooked by the market. A taking effort it was to finish second, well clear of the rest and would’ve been closer to the winner had it not been for a scrappy jump late on

    Evan Williams in form and 1/2, 2 places with hcap debutants here according to Josh’s summer jumps stats

    Ali 25/09/16 11:45 PM Reply


    • I had the same thoughts last night

      Robert Clark 26/09/16 7:26 AM Reply


    • I think Ruddy Article is well in here with its CD novice win looking strong. Mont Choisy beaten 4l (they were 38l clear!) is now rated 132 and RA is off 117, that’s without the claim either. 8/1 BOG.

      Chris 26/09/16 7:54 AM Reply


  • Leon commented on yesterday’s post before I had got this one up. Just in case you missed it, given the effort he put into writing it I will repeat….

    ***
    Hi,

    Just wanted to give a little comment to a recent eyecatcher running tomorrow at Newton Abbott which I noted in my tracker as one for handicaps which may present a bit of value.

    The horse is jonagold of Evan Williams running in the 16.00. I, like Josh I think backed Holy Cross (which ran terribly) however this one caught the eye in that maiden at Stratford having been kept way off the pace most way round. Turning in the front two were well clear however this one made quite eyecatching headway (along with beautiful people, probably another one for handicaps) down the home straight finishing third.

    It’s next run at uttoxeter going off an unfancied 18/1, different tactics were employed, racing prominently until Kiwayu (rated 70 on the flat) swept to the front going clear by 7 lengths, with jonagold keeping on at the one pace to finish second, 20 lengths clear of the third. Obviously the finishing distance of this uttoxeter maiden can be taken with a little pinch of salt as many in there would be running for handicap marks however I was fairly impressed with how the horse stayed on.
    Tomorrow it makes its handicap debut off a mark of 110 which looks workable in the context of the race and its ability shown so far.

    Of the completion, kentford heiress is put in as favourite following however is running off a career high mark of 117 and may have reached the ceiling of its ability.
    Same may be said of Polo the Mumm having won the last twice having stepped up in trip but does have a liking for the sharp bends at Newton Abbott.
    Quinto beat a decent yardstick in gullys edge in January but all its best form has been with a bit of cut/soft ground.
    Ballinure doesn’t seem to be the most consistent of types and ruddy article reverts back to hurdles after an unsuccessful chasing stint (not an angle I particularly like).
    I think the other interesting runner is Byron blue which is well handicapped on last years form having contested some decent contest. Back on good ground last time it ran a nice race in a class 3 event at Worcester going down by 2 lengths to Ablazing. The only worry I have is that for a small horse its lugging around 11.11 less the jockeys claim.

    I’m giving jonagold at 12/1 a chance in its first handicap as Williams seems to have found a winnable race. Stats aren’t too bad for Williams handicap debutants – 1/7, 4 places last 5 years. I worry it may get tapped for toe by a couple of the nippier types in the race but believe it’ll be staying on all the way hopefully nicking a place at least.

    Thoughts/comments welcome.

    Cheers

    Josh 26/09/16 8:47 AM Reply


  • An each way runner from the Gary Moore stable today – Mount Shamsan, 4.30 NA, 12/1.

    martin colwell 26/09/16 12:56 PM Reply


  • I like both the Millman runners at Bath ridden by George Wood today. (15:10 Rajadarmi and 17:40 Go Amber Go)

    Nick Mazur 26/09/16 2:21 PM Reply


    • always the way…as the other Millman runner wins
      Paul

      blueboy199 26/09/16 3:29 PM Reply


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