FREE DAILY POST: 25/09/16 (complete)

A mixed day yesterday but a couple of winners at Market Rasen to cheer home for any backers, from six possible bets using my stats profile. I think Hassle was available at around 12s in the morning and Frederic drifted to 12s. So, they had a good day and hopefully that may be a sign of things to come this winter. The three stats/angles horses all ran well, two coming second, one third. A shame one of them couldn’t go in.

The Cambridgeshire. That went well! Annoyingly one of those where that stats/profile approach was more miss than hit. I bet 1/2 a point on each of those three and didn’t have much to cheer. Spark Plug was in the long list of 14 using that first set of stats so some small consolation if/when I try that approach next year.

Moving on.

A fairly quite day on the content front today…

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

none.

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER BETS 

3.45 Epsom: Cape Speed / Kings Pavilion (any odds, those 7/1< do best,has odd bigger priced winner)

4.10 Muss: Drifting Spirit / Invermere (any odds)

 

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BONUS

Given it is quiet…in one of my monthly research articles for the Betting Insiders Club and my own Members Club I had a look at 3yo handicaps. There is a micro system for Mick Appleby that I have been tracking…

  • M Appleby
  • 3yo Only Handicaps (flat turf)
  • 5f-9f
  • any odds

84 bets / 18 wins / 31 places / 21% sr / +164 SP / +386 BFSP / AE 1.67

Those stats inc an 80/1 winner.

He has one qualifier today…

3.35 Muss – Case Key

It will be interesting to see how they continue to perform for the rest of this flat season and into a next.

***

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Josh

 

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5 Comments

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  • grandkids had me up from six. so been playing with the racehorsebase.
    Saturday is the hardest day to find a winner, so I thought I’d have a look and see who has a decent SR on the hardest day of the week. There are a few who make it pay.

    For those without Racehorsebase.
    STUART C Williams 5 year stats

    AW. Ling/Wolves/Chelm.
    DIST: 5F to 1M2F (no winners beyond)
    CLASS: 2-3-4-5-6
    BETS: 105
    WINS: 32
    PL/SP: £122

    I then took it down to 12/1 or under. (Which takes out a 33/1 shot)
    BETS: 90
    WINS: 31
    PL/SP £103
    Good yearly stats, except 2014
    He has used 25 Jockey’s, 15 have won.
    MURPHY 4 from 6
    COSGROVE 4 from 6
    LEVEY 3 from 5
    ATZENI 6 from 14
    JONES 3 from 10
    Little word of caution.. nov/dec, 1 from 11….the rest of the year fine.
    only one qualifier since April (won 5/1).
    So!! It’s a slow burner, but seems a profitable one.

    ian straker 25/09/16 11:48 AM Reply


  • Interesting angle Ian. D Simcock appears to be another with great stats under this criteria. Particularly in January, February and March.
    Ray

    kipper24 25/09/16 4:18 PM Reply


    • Yes, very strong at Chelmsford 53%..8 from 15 last two seasons

      ian straker 25/09/16 4:29 PM Reply


  • Hi,

    I was up in Cambridge today, dropping off for Uni and so missed the Gary Moore winner on Sunday, Guns of Leros! However the Moore stable have found form now and we can hope for a few more winners in the next few weeks.

    On Monday I like Ninjago, 3.50 Hamilton. he has run well last two runs despite bad draws.

    Martin Colwell 25/09/16 7:30 PM Reply


  • Hi,

    Just wanted to give a little comment to a recent eyecatcher running tomorrow at Newton Abbott which I noted in my tracker as one for handicaps which may present a bit of value.

    The horse is jonagold of Evan Williams running in the 16.00. I, like Josh I think backed Holy Cross (which ran terribly) however this one caught the eye in that maiden at Stratford having been kept way off the pace most way round. Turning in the front two were well clear however this one made quite eyecatching headway (along with beautiful people, probably another one for handicaps) down the home straight finishing third.

    It’s next run at uttoxeter going off an unfancied 18/1, different tactics were employed, racing prominently until Kiwayu (rated 70 on the flat) swept to the front going clear by 7 lengths, with jonagold keeping on at the one pace to finish second, 20 lengths clear of the third. Obviously the finishing distance of this uttoxeter maiden can be taken with a little pinch of salt as many in there would be running for handicap marks however I was fairly impressed with how the horse stayed on.
    Tomorrow it makes its handicap debut off a mark of 110 which looks workable in the context of the race and its ability shown so far.

    Of the completion, kentford heiress is put in as favourite following however is running off a career high mark of 117 and may have reached the ceiling of its ability.
    Same may be said of Polo the Mumm having won the last twice having stepped up in trip but does have a liking for the sharp bends at Newton Abbott.
    Quinto beat a decent yardstick in gullys edge in January but all its best form has been with a bit of cut/soft ground.
    Ballinure doesn’t seem to be the most consistent of types and ruddy article reverts back to hurdles after an unsuccessful chasing stint (not an angle I particularly like).
    I think the other interesting runner is Byron blue which is well handicapped on last years form having contested some decent contest. Back on good ground last time it ran a nice race in a class 3 event at Worcester going down by 2 lengths to Ablazing. The only worry I have is that for a small horse its lugging around 11.11 less the jockeys claim.

    I’m giving jonagold at 12/1 a chance in its first handicap as Williams seems to have found a winnable race. Stats aren’t too bad for Williams handicap debutants – 1/7, 4 places last 5 years. I worry it may get tapped for toe by a couple of the nippier types in the race but believe it’ll be staying on all the way hopefully nicking a place at least.

    Thoughts/comments welcome.

    Cheers

    Leon 25/09/16 7:59 PM Reply


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