MEMBERS CLUB UPDATE: just to say I have updated the Cambridgeshire post with some stats/trends/pointers for the big handicap. Nick has also kindly added some further stats profile pointers as well. We shall see what kind of shortlist that lot throws up. You can read that in the same place HERE>>>
FREE SYSTEM: If you missed my emails you can grab this free system from Kieran Ward HERE>>> It looks at 10 trainers who do well with favourites on the AW and was 2/2 yesterday at Kempton. Worth a read if nothing else.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
- 2.10 Hayd – Gnaad 11/1 – (UP 33/1…safe to say market told the story there this time) Some strong enough trainer stats here, the kind that should pay over time, if not with this one…Cowell seems to have changed approach this year with 2 year olds first time out – 5/20, 7 places in the last year. He is also 1/4, 3 places at Haydock with such types and maybe this one is of some EW interest on that basis. The market may well guide as to his chance. The jockey is 2/11,7 places on the trainers non handicappers. The trainer could be in better form which is a slight negative.
- 3.55 Hayd – Battaash 11/1 – (3rd 14/1 – one for the tracker for next season maybe- he is blistering from the gate and if they can ever teach him to settle a bit better,pre race/in race, he could be smart enough. Time for the hood maybe. Exciting run that.) Charlie Hills is 5/11, 6 places at the track with handicap debutants, another of those micro angles that should pay over time. This one has been highly tried and I will leave you to look at recent runs. This looks like an afterthought and he has been a bit disappointing the last twice. Last time he pulled hard but led to around 1f out over 6f LTO. He then hung and looks far from straightforward. Maybe the jockey has recommended dropping him back as he rode him LTO. On ratings he is the best in the race on what they have done to date. A tricky one but those stats are decent. This looks like a track he clearly targets with those on handicap debut.
- 7.45 Tiga Tuan – 16/1 – A bit of a poke here but I couldn’t get away from the fact that Ryan is 5/15,7 places at the track in the last year and 4/9, 5 places with Stott up at the track. This one likes to get on with it and ran ok two starts ago. Maybe the softer ground was an excuse last time out. He is now 0/8, 1 place so who knows, he may just be no good. Drawn low I thought they may try and make plenty of use of him and he could get the lead here. After that, who knows but maybe an interesting one for an EW wager. A hot fav from the Haggas yard to contend with also.
That will be all for Friday on the shortlist.
2.20 Worc- Kerisper (doesn’t tick any of positive boxes, makes chasing debut. Trainer 1/6,2 places in non hncp chases at track)
4.05 – Rock of Leon (doesn’t tick any boxes from my notes, missing out on ‘rest pattern’ by one day. 3/17,7 places when Sam is up on the non-handicap hurdlers)
4.40 – Ballycash (nothing again, one of these off a break of 90+ days will probably go in,as two did at Perth at short prices. Another non handicap hurdle, trainer/jockey stats above)
5.50 – Bendomingo (doesn’t tick rest pattern boxes but does tick the ‘extreme weight’ pointers. NTD only 4/31,10p in handicap hurdles here, -7 SP. Improves slightly to 4/23,7p when Sam is up top)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
4.05 Perth (tipped race)
By The Boardwalk- well he was ultimately poor backed from 10s into 9/2. He travelled enthusiastically here and looked to be sneaking into it. He hit the odd fence up the home straight which he can do and I don’t know if that made any difference. Given how he went first up last season and then how the wheels came off, I can’t say you would want to be with him moving forward. They may find a weak race for him at some point. Still lightly enough raced over fences but you would maybe want to see more now before getting involved. Maybe he used up too much energy through the race.
Kilbree Kid won this, drifting from 7/2 to 5/1. He was the solid, been there and done it horse, whose fitness/recent form was proven. I suppose that was the case with Longsdon winner at Warwick as well a few days before. He was entitled to do that on old form. First ride and first winner for the new stable jockey as well I think.
Kilronan High- not sure what to make of this but probably the one you take from the race moving forward, given her profile. I think she stayed well enough albeit a stiff/well run 2m4f may be perfect. She still made the odd scrappy error here and the jumping needs to sharpen up moving forward. Given how she ran you would think she was fit enough. It may turn out this was a decent little contest as the winner is a solid C3 horse, and has won at C2 level and he looked to be back in tip top shape here. There are handicap chases to be won with her.
That is all for Friday. Good luck with your bets.