FREE DAILY POST: 22/09/16 (COMPLETE)

MEMBERS CLUB, NEW CONTENT: There is a new post up with some meeting notes for the Cambridgeshire meeting this week. Three trainers in focus plus a few other notes. Fingers crossed they can point you to a few winners. (includes the trainer who is 5/9,7 places in Listed races here in the last three seasons) There is also an in-depth research piece looking at some trainer angles for Handicap Hurdles Oct-April. A few different angles that will be interesting to follow this season. Now I just need to do the same with chasers. You can read/download etc that lot HERE>>>

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Winners… there were a few winners dotted about the blog on Wednesday… 10/1 winner in the Stats/Angles shortlist, 13/2 winner in the jumps notes, one of two for Twister to tick the boxes against my positive pointers. My tip didn’t do much to improve my form but thankfully there were winners at 22/1, 3/1 and 8/1 posted in the comments to lift the mood. Superb effort and as always thanks for sharing. I hope some of you may have backed one or more of those and they helped you have an enjoyable punting day. 

 

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TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

  • 2.00 New: Eminent 9/1 -(WON 6/1, was some 12s about last evening I think) Meade is 3/14, 7 places with 2yo newcomers first time up in the last year, +25 SP. He is 3/7, 6 places at the Newmarket tracks. Crowley has been booked for this one which I found interesting given the chase for the title. He wouldn’t have been able to ride many others in here albeit he has ridden for the trainer three times before. It looks a fairly deep race given the yards represented + those that could come on for the run. Backing this type, from this trainer, should continue to pay over time and this one may add to the profits. The trainer is ‘in form’ – 1/9, 5 places in the last 14 days. I should add that he is a Frankel...
  • 6.15 Chelm: Evergate 4/1 – (2nd 2/1) Palmer is 3/6, 6 places with handicap debutants here and is 2/4, 4 places with Crowley up in handicaps here. The break is a slight concern – may suggest an issue of sorts. But, the trainer’s record with those after such breaks is nothing to worry about. Palmer is 4/23, 10 places in the last 14 days. The Gosden horse may be a danger, (The Amber Fort) not least because Johnny G is 67/219, 115 places, +65 SP with last time out winners in the last 2 years, 13% above market expectation. I suspect there may be a big winner or two helping those profits along but decent enough stats.

Two more races of interest…

  • 5.10 Pontefract- Market Choice 9/2 (UP)+ Rose Eclair 11/2 (UP) (that was a bit underwhelming!) – these two have an eye popping ‘geegeez/dr Peter May’ speed figure compared to the rest. 91 + 92 with the rest in here in the 60s. These two both ran in the same race LTO, contributing to those figures no doubt. I haven’t yet dived into how they are derived but I just use them as a guide. It is rather technical I think! Anyway, there are three other horses in here who like to get on with it, so some pace to aim at. Rose Eclair may be further forward than MC and have track position, and may appreciate the slightly better ground. Interested to see if the speed figures play out in this one. If that is the case they could be finishing 1-2 here…
  • 7.45 Chelmsford- Foie Gras 9/1 – (UP 12/1) Dwyer and SDS are 12/40,17 places in handicaps at the track which is decent enough. This one returns to the scene of his last win which was over CD. He has raced at 7f since then and has been running ok, plugging on. This step up should suit you would think. I wouldn’t be ecstatic about the draw but it is far from impossible. The trainer is in red hot form, 4/14, 7 places in the last 14 days, 5/25, 9 places in the last 30 days. Interesting enough at the price and it seems some money is coming.  

 

That will be all for this section.

 

JUMPS NOTES 

Oct/Sept Trianers

(remember these pointers can be found in Free Reports/Systems tab)

All NTD (abbreviated using my notes for him at this time of year as above and any other brief thoughts)

2.10- Moonday Sun UP 5/2(ticks rest pattern box 21-60 days, also ‘extreme weight’ positive. Top speed figure here also, well found in market 9/4. trainer has 20% sr with LTO winners) / Sword of the Lord NR (assume he may be withdrawn,wouldn’t tick any of my stats boxes now. His job is done for followers)

2.45 – Foxtail Hill – (Fell 7/2>5/2) (ticks the extreme weight box, those 11-10 or more were  10/25, 13 places. If speed figures anything to go by he may struggle, 72 plays 6 that are 100+)

3.20 – Ballyandy (2nd) (no positives against my stats. Just a race to watch and enjoy surely. Very excited to see how it plays out)

3.50 – Double Court– (2nd) (ticks the 21-60 day rest pattern box and won LTO. Crown Hill (WON)- (albeit not as I expected,never far away mind,could have led if wanted to!) ran yesterday and interesting if he turns up here. He is the only possible pace angle in this,and if over yesterday could try and make all under Paddy at 10s. The race is there for a tactically astute jockey I think, so many that are usually held up here)

4.25 – Flying Angel WON (doesn’t tick any of my stats boxes but that wont be reason he doesn’t win. I will repeat again- NTD has winners coming after 90+ days off, you just have to pick them, getting harder to profit from them systematically)

5.00- Ballymalin (same as with Flying Angel) WON

5.30 – Woodfort (2nd, 5/1>13/8) (as above again. It should be noted NTD is 2/7, 4 places with his NHF runners here last 5 years. His breeding somewhat catches the eye as well to me, for a race like this. Could have too much speed for them?)

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER BETS 

3.30 Ponte – Gin In The Inn (9/1<) UP

5.40 Ponte – Canyari (9/1<) DNQ

 

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That will be all for today. Good luck with your bets.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Evening all,

    Nice little win from Symposium today with Kilronan High just missing out. Obviously plenty of books going around but for the past 2 years I have found Mark Howard’s One Jump Ahead as an extremely useful tool to help picking out winners and would fully reccomend it to anyone serious about racing particularly for £10. If you’re interested you can get it here: http://www.mhpublications.co.uk/publications/

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 21/09/16 9:32 PM Reply


    • Hi nick. Very very good book. Have bought copies for the past 5 years for both flat and jump. Packed with information. I take it with me everywhere I go like my bible lol

      daniel 22/09/16 7:01 AM Reply


  • Yep have to agree, as have bought his books for the last ten years, and his updates for the NH season.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 22/09/16 7:16 AM Reply


  • Leon posted the following on yesterday’s blog post, about today’s racing if you are interested…may have got a bit lost…

    Hope a few got on Mango Cap amongst the other winners on Josh’s stats and/or those highlighted on the forum today.

    Shame my “eye-catching runner” eye wasn’t on song with Berry Du Carjac so apologies for that one.
    Really looking forward to the battle between Ballyandy and Moon Racer tomorrow whetting the NH appetite as the season draws closer. I’m also interested to see how Flying Angel gets on in the novice chase, in which NTD has a fairly decent record in the race winning 3 times in the last 6 years.
    With a lack of value tomorrow at Perth it looks a day that NTD/Pipe could quite easily scoop 3/4 races between them but loathe to put their runners in some form of multiple given the odds and aren’t backable generally in singles.

    Away from Perth two horses run which I’ve followed / backed throughout the flat season. They are Royal Brave in the 17.10, reunited with Tudhope and back at the course where it ran its best race since catching my eye at Catterick in May. Will need plenty of luck in running given its hold up style but theres a bit of pace here in the race for it to track and hopefully pick up the pieces in the final furlong.

    Also Ferndale runs in the 17.40. Not a fancy price but ran a cracker in the Ayr Bronze Cup last week and its 2 length 5th to Roudee being franked by the winner stopping the Sliver Cup the same weekend. Not a fancy price and a couple of well handicapped animals in the race but along with Highly Sprung is the only sprinter in any recent form. Somehow dropped 2lb for its 2nd in the Bronze Cup last weekend and the fact that the flat season is drawing to an end surely Dods is seeking a win out of this one before the season end and this class 4 is the weakest race Ferndale’s contested for a long time

    Josh 22/09/16 7:50 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Trying to access the NH hurdle data but the link directs me to an invitation to join. I am already a member could you please help.
    Thanks
    Ray

    kipper24 22/09/16 8:54 AM Reply


    • Hi Ray, are you logged in? It should all work no problems if you are logged in. If you are then we will have problems and I will take a look. You are part of the members club within the blog? (rather than Donations Club members, most of whom have now cancelled donations and set up within members club in blog)
      We will sort it, worst case I just email you them for now.
      Josh

      Josh 22/09/16 8:58 AM Reply


      • Hi Ray, I will email you…

        Josh 22/09/16 9:03 AM Reply


  • Hughie Morrison hit a bit of a purple patch with his 2 and 3yo at chelmsford around this time last year,was first season so it might have just been a one off,anyway will track his runners this year from now on,in the 8.45 Sunscape won on the track as 2yo,and lto,so might add to the tally,at perth hoping Crown Hill will be none the worse for yesterday 3.50

    gerry 22/09/16 10:19 AM Reply


    • Hi Gerry

      Been following an angle recently for the sire “Roderic O’Conner” whose most effective trip is 1m to 1m 21/2f on varying surfaces and going priced up to 20/1 has a record of 57 runs, 18 wins 31.58% win SR, 34 places 59.65% place SR….The one qualifier today is Sunscape 8.45 be with you on this one

      Cheers
      Steve

      Steve Wiseman 22/09/16 3:59 PM Reply


  • The 4.00 pontefract race seems to be the choice of the text con men. Two friends and myself have received unsolicitored text giving the winner. These are for three different horses. This seems to happen frequently and I would recommend these texts are ignored. Somebody will no doubt get a winner and be tempted. dont

    Bernard Buxton 22/09/16 11:28 AM Reply


  • Hi, following yesterday’s success I am going for another 20/1 each way poke. 6.45 Che, Dream Serenade.

    I also like Tomorrowcomes, 2.55 Pon, in a nursery.

    Nothing from the Moore stable yet and will re post if anything comes to light?

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 22/09/16 11:51 AM Reply


    • Well done again Martin. You’re in blinding form.

      JV 22/09/16 3:05 PM Reply


      • Yep good stuff Martin. A good couple of days on here all in, so far. A few more to come with any luck.

        Josh 22/09/16 3:07 PM Reply


    • Nice one martin.Nearly given up on fahey, then that nice double at redcar yesterday 9/2 14/1 opened my eyes again.

      mozzer 22/09/16 3:12 PM Reply


    • Tommorowcomes does the biz cheers

      George Simpson 22/09/16 3:36 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Excellent start to the day with Eminent remembered you mentioning this little niche a couple of months back for martin meade in the current year at Newmarket and what with the booking of Jim Crowley and Betfair odds of 9.8 i had to have 1/2 pt great stuff

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 22/09/16 2:09 PM Reply


    • Glad you had a nibble Steve. Yep the last one was on July course and he placed from memory, double figs under Mulrennan and had he got after him (was understandable why he didn’t) then would have gone very close. They keep putting them in at big odds, was 12s I think >9s >6s. Crowley, and a Frankel, +trainer record. job done.

      Josh 22/09/16 2:11 PM Reply


      • Yes remember the race well (although not the horse’s name) and he let the horse just run home in its own time perfectably understandable on 1st run…..but looks like Newmarket is his preference for his nice / ready 2yr olds and decent odds too….job done indeed

        Steve Wiseman 22/09/16 2:41 PM Reply


    • Nice winner wiyh Eminent cheers

      George Simpson 22/09/16 3:35 PM Reply


  • Hope some Cambridge meeting notes users may have picked up on Charlie As record in nurseries at meeting, small numbers I know…was 2/2 before that win of Fly At Dawn 11/2>9/2.

    Josh 22/09/16 2:54 PM Reply


  • Hi All

    A real quandry today in the 6.15 Chelmsford I have 2 x qualifiers in the same race

    Bee Case 11.0 (Josephine Gordon) for Hugo Palmer 10 rides, 6 wins, 7 places, 60% SR win 70% SR place
    High Acclaim 9.8 (George Wood) for Roger Teal 6 rides, 3 wins, 4 places 50% SR win, 66.67% SR place

    Then you add to the mix Jim Crowley riding also for Hugo Palmer on Evergate 3.55
    30 rides, 12 winners, 22 places 40% SR, 73.33% SR

    Hmm a tricast maybe :-0

    A further qualifier in the 7.45 Chelmsford – Foie Gras 9.4 also highlighted by Josh
    for SDS / Dwyer combo in class 5 & 6 events on the AW except Southwell 41.67% SR win, 63.89% SR place

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 22/09/16 3:18 PM Reply


  • Good spot on crown hill josh

    mozzer 22/09/16 4:08 PM Reply


    • Well yes and no haha – expected Paddy to lead. They did doss, and his pulled. He could have led them if he wanted but just kept him in third. Should have mentioned his unexposed profile over hurdles, and that step up in trip may help. Not many miles on clock. Twister horse ran well for the 1-2 also. I won’t complain!

      Josh 22/09/16 4:11 PM Reply


  • Is anyone on here using Gruss software today and if so are you having probs with api loading?

    mozzer 22/09/16 4:19 PM Reply


  • Great to see Paddy at his best today,was wise move not to go haring off in front with the softening ground,just kept him prominent and left enough at end,faller at last might have helped but think he was being headed anyway 9/1 roughly after R4,well done for highlighting 2 winners today so far

    gerry 22/09/16 4:36 PM Reply


    • yep, such a clever jockey. Think the horse was a bit keen also, I suspect he thought I want cover here and no daylight, which may have been curtains. I think he had the measure of that faller there but you never know. Step up made the difference and a stronger pace would probably help. Only second run over 20f over hurdles, only second handicap hurdle I think. 20f looks the trip, maybe even over fences. One to keep an eye on at moderate level, had a bit up sleeve there in poor race.

      Josh 22/09/16 4:45 PM Reply


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