MEMBERS CLUB, NEW CONTENT: There is a new post up with some meeting notes for the Cambridgeshire meeting this week. Three trainers in focus plus a few other notes. Fingers crossed they can point you to a few winners. (includes the trainer who is 5/9,7 places in Listed races here in the last three seasons) There is also an in-depth research piece looking at some trainer angles for Handicap Hurdles Oct-April. A few different angles that will be interesting to follow this season. Now I just need to do the same with chasers. You can read/download etc that lot HERE>>>
Winners… there were a few winners dotted about the blog on Wednesday… 10/1 winner in the Stats/Angles shortlist, 13/2 winner in the jumps notes, one of two for Twister to tick the boxes against my positive pointers. My tip didn’t do much to improve my form but thankfully there were winners at 22/1, 3/1 and 8/1 posted in the comments to lift the mood. Superb effort and as always thanks for sharing. I hope some of you may have backed one or more of those and they helped you have an enjoyable punting day.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
- 2.00 New: Eminent 9/1 -(WON 6/1, was some 12s about last evening I think) Meade is 3/14, 7 places with 2yo newcomers first time up in the last year, +25 SP. He is 3/7, 6 places at the Newmarket tracks. Crowley has been booked for this one which I found interesting given the chase for the title. He wouldn’t have been able to ride many others in here albeit he has ridden for the trainer three times before. It looks a fairly deep race given the yards represented + those that could come on for the run. Backing this type, from this trainer, should continue to pay over time and this one may add to the profits. The trainer is ‘in form’ – 1/9, 5 places in the last 14 days. I should add that he is a Frankel...
- 6.15 Chelm: Evergate 4/1 – (2nd 2/1) Palmer is 3/6, 6 places with handicap debutants here and is 2/4, 4 places with Crowley up in handicaps here. The break is a slight concern – may suggest an issue of sorts. But, the trainer’s record with those after such breaks is nothing to worry about. Palmer is 4/23, 10 places in the last 14 days. The Gosden horse may be a danger, (The Amber Fort) not least because Johnny G is 67/219, 115 places, +65 SP with last time out winners in the last 2 years, 13% above market expectation. I suspect there may be a big winner or two helping those profits along but decent enough stats.
Two more races of interest…
- 5.10 Pontefract- Market Choice 9/2 (UP)+ Rose Eclair 11/2 (UP) (that was a bit underwhelming!) – these two have an eye popping ‘geegeez/dr Peter May’ speed figure compared to the rest. 91 + 92 with the rest in here in the 60s. These two both ran in the same race LTO, contributing to those figures no doubt. I haven’t yet dived into how they are derived but I just use them as a guide. It is rather technical I think! Anyway, there are three other horses in here who like to get on with it, so some pace to aim at. Rose Eclair may be further forward than MC and have track position, and may appreciate the slightly better ground. Interested to see if the speed figures play out in this one. If that is the case they could be finishing 1-2 here…
- 7.45 Chelmsford- Foie Gras 9/1 – (UP 12/1) Dwyer and SDS are 12/40,17 places in handicaps at the track which is decent enough. This one returns to the scene of his last win which was over CD. He has raced at 7f since then and has been running ok, plugging on. This step up should suit you would think. I wouldn’t be ecstatic about the draw but it is far from impossible. The trainer is in red hot form, 4/14, 7 places in the last 14 days, 5/25, 9 places in the last 30 days. Interesting enough at the price and it seems some money is coming.
That will be all for this section.
(remember these pointers can be found in Free Reports/Systems tab)
All NTD (abbreviated using my notes for him at this time of year as above and any other brief thoughts)
2.10- Moonday Sun UP 5/2(ticks rest pattern box 21-60 days, also ‘extreme weight’ positive. Top speed figure here also, well found in market 9/4. trainer has 20% sr with LTO winners) / Sword of the Lord NR (assume he may be withdrawn,wouldn’t tick any of my stats boxes now. His job is done for followers)
2.45 – Foxtail Hill – (Fell 7/2>5/2) (ticks the extreme weight box, those 11-10 or more were 10/25, 13 places. If speed figures anything to go by he may struggle, 72 plays 6 that are 100+)
3.20 – Ballyandy (2nd) (no positives against my stats. Just a race to watch and enjoy surely. Very excited to see how it plays out)
3.50 – Double Court– (2nd) (ticks the 21-60 day rest pattern box and won LTO. Crown Hill (WON)- (albeit not as I expected,never far away mind,could have led if wanted to!) ran yesterday and interesting if he turns up here. He is the only possible pace angle in this,and if over yesterday could try and make all under Paddy at 10s. The race is there for a tactically astute jockey I think, so many that are usually held up here)
4.25 – Flying Angel WON (doesn’t tick any of my stats boxes but that wont be reason he doesn’t win. I will repeat again- NTD has winners coming after 90+ days off, you just have to pick them, getting harder to profit from them systematically)
5.00- Ballymalin (same as with Flying Angel) WON
5.30 – Woodfort (2nd, 5/1>13/8) (as above again. It should be noted NTD is 2/7, 4 places with his NHF runners here last 5 years. His breeding somewhat catches the eye as well to me, for a race like this. Could have too much speed for them?)
TTP: MAIN TRAINER BETS
3.30 Ponte – Gin In The Inn (9/1<) UP
5.40 Ponte – Canyari (9/1<) DNQ
That will be all for today. Good luck with your bets.