FREE DAILY POST: 20/09/16 (COMPLETE)

Guest Post…

Paul Ferguson, author of Jumpers To Follow 2016-2017, has been kind enough to write a guest post for us all. In it he highlights three horses to keep an eye on. It is worth a few minutes of your time and you can read it HERE>>>

 

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TIPS

4.30 Warwick

Twirling Magnet – 1/2 point EW –  11/1 – 10/1 (general) UP

Why?

Twirling Magnet just looks solid enough here to my eyes and with any luck he will give us a run for our money. I fear a few in here but who at the odds I don’t really want to be on so I have gone safety first. This one spent most of last year running in hunter chases and has only had 14 starts in handicaps chases. If you cast your eye back to 2013 there was some decent chase form there and he is smart enough. Stamina isn’t a problem for me and he is usually a sound jumper. He has won over 25f around Cheltenham over fences and while no winning form over this sort of trip he should be fine. He has kept on strongly over 25f at Newbury before also. All handicap chase wins have been in this C3, <10k to winner – 2/4, 3 places. He is 2/5, 4 places with an OR under 130 over fences. In effect he is running off 117 here. He can be held up or race prominently. I don’t like hold up types in general over fences and especially around this course. On his last run the jockey moved him forward plenty early enough and as long as he has a good position with half a mile to go or so there shouldn’t be too many excuses. That last run was ok. He was with a few progressive horses, including Ballykan, approaching the last couple but got outpaced there. He plugged on. This trip should suite more and the run showed he retained some ability. Jonjo is in form- 4/19, 6 places in the last 14 days and while his hurdlers are usually the ones to be on here his chasers go ok too. He also won this race last year and it could be that this has been a little target for the horse.

I just thought at 10/11ss, there was a bit to go on there for an EW interest. I may have that wrong but would be a bit sick if he went in at this price and I had nothing on, given my pre race thoughts….

The dangers…

Well I am cautious in a sense because there are a few lightly raced ones in here, the fav leading the pack. I personally couldn’t take 7/2 on Master Dee and will watch him for the future as if he scoots up here I suspect his trainer may have eyes on a chase of sorts at Cheltenham this autumn, albeit I am guessing there really. I haven’t been convinced with his jumping as yet. Of course he is entitled to be learning and improving. He made a few errors at Market Rasen and you could flip that thinking and say that he did so well to get that close. Maybe he prefers going LH over fences. His last run was ok but again, in a small field where they pottered around really he did make the odd scrappy error. Backers will be holding their breath a few times when Brennan fires him into a fence. If he jumps cleanly he probably takes this well. He will track the pace and could have any amount of improvement to come. Some may think 7/2 is a good price in that context. He does also have stamina to prove over fences. Everything suggests it should be fine albeit breeding on the dam side raises a few questions. So, a couple of things to prove but he should go well.

Pair of Jacks was poor LTO when I backed him and I wonder if he just has rubbish summer form. He is still progressive but this hold up type can also make blunders. If you make jumper errors around Cartmel you are likely to find these fences a bit off putting I think. Happy enough to leave him now and at 6s here given the oppo. He needs to bounce back from that last run, which he may do. I am unsure how good Kilfinichen Bay is and those last two runs don’t look the greatest to me. But he is lightly raced and the step back up in trip may suit him also. The trainer is 0/10, 3 p last 14 days, only 2/24 in handicap chases at the track. He needs more, which is possible under Dickie here but I wasn’t keen to back him at 6s.

Silver Man will provide the pace, along with the Bowen horse. He is running well enough but I think the handicapper may have him. That is inconclusive but he is certainly under threat from anything with more in hand, of which there could be a few in here. He will be in the right place and has his conditions. If there are chinks in those behind he may expose them. Letbeso will be up there as well but I didn’t think he would be good enough if some of the others run their races. He is in form and has looked progressive enough this summer. Trainer is 0/9, 0 places with his handicap chasers here and only 3/35 with all runners in the last 5 years. The Dickin horse has some fitness and stamina questions and trainer is only 2/70 odd here. He is well handicapped and I think came a distante third in this race last year. He has some ability but enough questions there. He may travel well to a point before hopefully weakening. Albeit is he 11lb below that run in this race last year. Still, yet to be convinced he truly stays. Handy Andy usually needs the run (0/17, 2p 31-365 days off,all runs, 0/11,0 p 31-90 days) and has a bit to prove from this mark/class in his advancing years. Schindlers Prince looks up against it. He has been running solid races but this is a stronger race than he has been competing in. Surprised he if won, not if he ran a solid race though.

So, an EW poke on one who I thought could out-run those odds. There are reasons why a few in here could falter. It may be asking too much for them all to do so hence the EW bet. The market may well guide and any pre race walk may have me running for cover. It should be a good little race to watch and Master Dee may well be one to keep onside after this race.

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Nothing really catching my eye today.

 

JUMPS NOTES 

Sept/Oct Trainers

NTD

3.25 Warwick – Horseguardsparade -(UP drifted 10/1) has run within the last 90 days which is a tick. Makes handicap hurdle debut. NTD 5/21, 8 places with such runners, albeit 0/5, 0 places at the track to date.

 

Warwick 

My trainer track profile for Warwick is HERE>>> if you missed it previously.

These stats highlight the following horses, based on trainer records at the track from 2013/14/15/16- ….

All Handicaps

3.25 – Decimus (3rd 15/1>20/1) and Presence Felt (UP, 4th)

4.30 – Twirling Magnet

Handicap Chases

none.

Handicap Hurdles

3.25 – Presence Felt (UP)

NHF 

none.

Micro Angles 

3.25 – Presence Felt (UP) (going, class)

4.30 – Twirling Magnet (going, distance)

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MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

6.25 Ffos Las – Head Space / Satchiville Flyer (16/1< guide)

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • No joy with jim today,however Iconic Sky for Lucy Wadham is a strong fancy in the 4.05 Lingfield,This is his first time up so i expect big run,upped in distance for his handicap bow,stats very strong for both combined

    gerry 19/09/16 6:16 PM Reply


  • Just a mention of Popeswood in the 2.30 ling New Trainer/jockey 1st time hood/a/w has the ability worth a market check 20/1 at the moment

    mozzer 19/09/16 9:23 PM Reply


    • All wins on soft; will be something to bet on then.

      Chris 20/09/16 4:59 AM Reply


    • Good luck Mozzer – does look like he has just regressed since leaving Channon albeit arguably only raced in what looked like ‘ideal conditions’ once for Hodges. First run on AW and will be interesting if Carter can turn things around. Clearly some ability deep in there somewhere.

      Josh 20/09/16 9:35 AM Reply


  • Josh, the link you provide is for the Sep-Oct NH trainers, not the Warwick stats!

    Ali 19/09/16 9:42 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, so it was. All sorted now I think. Cheers.

      Josh 19/09/16 10:00 PM Reply


      • Nice one!

        Let’s get our numbers hats on

        Ali 19/09/16 10:53 PM Reply


  • Josh, what’s your opinion of the “backing USA bred horses at Southell” system. It’s supposedly profitable over many years.

    Paul Cockerill 20/09/16 1:10 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul…yep I have seen a few of those around over the last couple of years. Personally I am not a big sires punter but our good friend Steve W is and I wonder if he has any views…

      As always it will be a case of working out the best approach. There isn’t much point/logic in my mind in backing exposed horses who may have had a few goes. One of those I remember looking at looked at those that had run 0-3 runs I think on the surface, and should improve at some point based on breeding- and may go under the radar due to perceived poor form.

      There may then be more specific sires / distance combos that will work well.

      As with most things this approach will be over-bet at some point and it is about new angles/those not in the mainstream.

      Certainly the top level stats are ripe for digging… all runners at Southwell AW, 2013-… USA bred…

      755 bets / 137 winners / 285 places / 18% sr / +35 SP / +136 BFSP / AE 1.02

      So,a good top set there to get stuck into if someone wishes to dive in 🙂 I will add to my list.

      Josh 20/09/16 1:20 PM Reply


      • I have just done some very quick digging…
        So…
        Southwell AW
        USA bred
        0-2 runs at track
        7f to 16f
        NOT up in distance from last run (so same, or dropping)
        16/1< SP 2013- 166 bets / 48 wins / 84 places / 29% sr / +104 SP / +140 BFSP / AE 1.28 1/30, 2 places -2 SP , 18/1 or bigger. If you wanted to go more micro you could just look at those who ran at Kempton or Southwell LTO 21/58, 35 places... +72 SP / +97 BFSP / AE 1.49 Hope that may give you some food for thought. Josh

        Josh 20/09/16 1:32 PM Reply


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