FREE DAILY POST: 17/09/16 (COMPLETE)

 

TIPS

3.45 -Ayr Gold Cup

G Force – 1 point win – 14/1 – 16/1 

Magnus Maximus – 1 point win – 10/1-12/1

Rivellino – 1/2 point win – 25/1 – 33/1

 

Given my form in these big sprints I am going to be a bit cautious and just go with three on the nose, 2.5 points bet. It is a very tough race and I am sticking with my stats profile…

My 8 years stats research from the last 8 renewals suggests that you want: Top 10 LTO / Age 3-6 / carrying 9-00 to 9-6 (exc claims) / 0-2 track runs / 1-5 handicap wins / 1-2 class wins / Not dropping in class / Not moving up in distance

I think that leaves a shortlist of just 4…

Growl / Rivellino / G Force / Magnus Maximus.

The stats behind that profile are all strong and we shall see if it holds true in this race. Here’s hoping.

G Force – well he is a former Group 1 winner of the Betfred Haydock Sprint Cup. His run in the race last year wasn’t that bad either. This is no group 1, and maybe he is no group 1 horse anymore. This is still only the 18th run of his life and the 5th for his new trainer, A Keatley. He likes having winners here and is starting to make a name for himself. The horse doesn’t mind a bit of cut from what I can see and he also has the best of the draw historically. All 8 winners of recent years have been drawn 8-20. The record of those ‘on the wings’ has been poor and I wonder if that is because by the time this race is run the wings may have been mashed up by all the other races. Who knows. I wouldn’t be dogmatic about that, or let it put you off one. This ones mark has come down from a high of 118 or so and he runs off 102 here. You do wonder , given the purse and the trainer’s liking for sending raiders over, whether this has been the plan. It could be he has gone at the game a bit but his last run was OK. The trainer is in form also, and has had a winner at the meeting as I write. He will also get some pace to aim at here I think. More on that in a mo.

Magnus Maximus – well he hasn’t done much wrong really. It looks like he gets to run off the same mark as LTO and that win was in a decent enough race, chased home by a good horse. He led all the way there which is no easy thing in any big field, and not the easiest thing at Ascot either. He is drawn in 21 and will blast out. I have no idea of the jockey will stay high or if they all try and coalesce up the middle. As I write (2.13 pm Friday) jockeys seem to be shunning the far side and are all coming up the middle. This one just looks progressive, cut is no problem, the trainer remains in form and the jockey is in form. I can’t really see a chink. The only doubt is whether he gets in a pace battle and a load of these do too much up front. Possible.

Growl…well I can’t say anything to put you off him really and he looks like a good saver bet. But, tipping a horse at 5s in this race seems a bit dirty. He may well win like one but there are the draw stats, he has had 49 days off and I can’t work out the jockey booking. Lee is ok, and when he first switched to the flat rode plenty of winners for Fahey. This is only his second ride for him of 2016 I think. Hamilton and McNamara have both ridden him more recently and I have no ideea why either of those are not on. A puzzle. He can also be held up off the pace and will need luck on many fronts. So may G Force, but the odds make up for that niggle. An obvious chance I suppose. He won’t be far away.

Rivellino- UPDATE: I had left the final selection but have changed my mind. What I originally wrote is below. I don’t want to be leaving another 20/1+ job on a stats shortlist. While he has been kept to decent ground he has never raced on slower from what I can see. An unknown. Maybe he will relish it. He is drawn in the right spot on what is transpiring this afternoon. The trainer is in form so who knows. Worth 1/2 a point to find out….

Well he is a big price and you never know. Maybe a shilling on just in case! 28/1 winner and 40/1 second (Gt St Wilfred/Kerry National) have both been left un-backed on recent shortlists using my same approach to profiling etc. However, this one is 0/16, 4 places on turf and has been kept exclusively to decent ground when running on grass. He hasn’t proved he won’t handle it. Maybe he will bolt up and connections will wonder why they never tried it previously! He isn’t running that great either. But, he looks to be coming from the right section of the stalls as well, historically.

The market may guide. All winners have been Top 10 in the market, 20/1 or shorter SP in the last 8 years and rarely is there a big big shock.

PACE- well on paper there is a hell of a lot. Pace wise it is spread right across the track so there should be no pace bias. It is just whether there is a going bias, or a perceived one from the jockeys. There are 7 out and out front runners that I can see drawn 3,4,7 on the low side and 17,20,21,24 on the high side. You could argue more sustained pace may be high. If they shun the rail a bit then middle to high could be favoured. But, there are also another 5 or 6 pace pushers as well and they are spread all over the place. They won’t hang around.

Again, as I write they have just read out the going stick readings… 6.9 on the stand side, 7.5 middle 7.5 low…so, middle to low is preferable on the going stick at least. Interesting.

So, make out of that lot what you will. You can’t be overly confident in a race like this or given my form in these either. One of them will drop in one day and I hope one of my pins has landed on the winner. As ever you can make a case for plenty in here. It is that sort of race.

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Back with the rest in due course.

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Three starting points for Saturday…

  • 1.35 Newm: Patching 50/1… i suspect this one doesn’t have a chance and some big yards are represented in here but you never know and the trainer is 5/19, 8 places, +62 SP with those making their second start. That looks like an angle to note moving forward as I suspect many of his are overlooked but they clearly come on for the run.
  • 4.25 Newm: Summer Chorus 13/2… Trainer and Jockey are 2/6, 5 places when teaming up at both the Newmarket tracks, one of those wins on this horse. That is it really. She ran well over this trip two starts ago and was keen/ran into trouble over 7f LTO. This is a different track though.
  • 9.10 Wolvs: Sunshineandbubbles (no price yet) – trainer and jockey are 3/6, 3 places in handicaps here. Fanning rides this one for the first time on his second start over this distance. Last time he ran into a bit of trouble at a crucial stage and it will be interesting if he can build on it. Trainer is 1/28, 7 places, 30 days, 0/14, 1 place 14 days so some caution I suppose.

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MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS BETS 

Ayr (16/1<)

3.45 Ayr- Jack Dexter

5.30 – Braes Of Lochaelsh

Catt (16/1<)

4.10 – Dominada

4.45 – I Am Not Here

Newb (6/1< guide, a few biggies gone in this year)

2.50 – Shell Bay

4.00 – Himself / Plant Pot Power / Swag

4.35 – See You When

 

3.50 Newm – Air Squadron (16/1<)

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SYSTEMS TEST 

OTT – 4.20 Ayr- Arrowzone (16/1< guide)

 

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

No luck with Ocean Sheridan and it rather summed up my run really. That is the best any horse I have backed this year has travelled I think, certainly in a sprint. The inevitable door shut in his face when it looked like he would take this race with a bit in hand. Moving on…

This is a tentative bet really…

2.35 Silver Cup…

Lexington Abbey – 1 point EW – 18/1-16/1 (5 places)

The stats and trends I used to narrow this down left a shortlist of: Flying Pursuit / Intense Style / Eccleston / Lexington Abbey

Lexington Abbey – well he is a frustrating horse if you happen to own a share in him and I know at least one of you reading these pages does just that. I have no idea what happened the last day as he drifted to the far side and was never really in it. The race before that at York can maybe written off as he was drawn on the near side which has been a graveyard at times this season. The two runs before that were very good and a repeat of either would have to put him in the mix here I think. The race wasn’t run to suit when Kimberella won and again had the wrong end of the draw. The time before that he nearly won at Ascot in a decent enough sprint handicap. He clearly has ability and 6f with cut seems to be fine having looked through his form. He seems versatile. He is drawn on the right side if the first two days are an indication. Middle to low have been the place to be. We shall see what kind of run we get but he has the ability for this. Maybe he has mental issues or this has been the plan! (probably not) Ryan has had a winner here this week and is blowing hot and cold.

Flying Pursuit gets first time blinkers which may make a difference and he has been running well. The draw is a but off putting given what has happened to date. The same for Intense Style. Eccleston is interesting but I think there may be classier animals in here. He is running well though. Tudhope would have had a choice but that may not mean much.

We shall see how the profile gets one.

I haven’t looked at every horse in detail in this and have very much used the my stats profile as a guide.

My longer list of horses against a few stats included Nuno Tristan/ Muntadab / Avon Breeze / Reputation / Shipyard / Handsome Dude.

Maybe I have left a winner on one of those lists!

 

***

That will be all for Saturday.

Good luck with your bets.

Josh

 

 

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11 Comments

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  • Seeing G Force was 40/1 3 days ago I had to have a go; as soon as I put the bet on I realised I had not checked the weather f/c and saw Ayr was due rain the rest of the week. Aargh, not a horse for heavy going, money wasted.
    But now, drying weather is the trend, so I have a chance again – and I’m sitting with a nice wager, perhaps.

    Chris 16/09/16 2:48 PM Reply


    • That is a good price! Yea you should be excited at those odds I think. There is good around, he has run well with good and if he could refind any of that old class it won’t matter as much. No more rain is forecast and I am hoping it is good to soft all over really. Worth a stab I thought, a certainly at those odds – even if on soft side.

      Josh 16/09/16 2:54 PM Reply


      • Rivellino was beaten less 4 lengths in ’15 GC and won a listed 6f race in 02/16 so he has the class for the race.
        Has a pedigree for easy going too, you’d have thought but as you say avoided, except for the good ground in this race last year when he seemed to run out of gas inside the last. Still worth a saver imv.

        Chris 16/09/16 3:04 PM Reply


        • yea at that price, and given trainer does well enough here, and drawn in right place up middle- worth a small nibble. Maybe he will relish it!

          Josh 16/09/16 3:14 PM Reply


  • No one was more surprised than me when I realised that Lexington Abbey ticked most of the stats/trends boxes. Disappointed with his run last week and Jamie reckoned that he might need blinkers, although they’ve been left off tomorrow. I think he needs cover which he didn’t really get last week. To be honest I don’t think we know what his best conditions are – winning an egg and spoon race over 5 furlongs on heavy at Nottingham first time out has probably confused things. After the Bronze Cup I’m very happy with a draw of 7, but I can’t pretend that I’m optimistic about our chances.
    Josh – the plan was supposedly the Portland with Ayr as a bit of an after thought although I think that the trainer and syndicate manager disagree about his best conditions.

    steved 16/09/16 9:22 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / all

    qualifiers for tomorrow as follows:

    2.50 Newbury – Baydar 9.0 (Josephine Gordon) 55.56% win SR, 66.67% SR when teaming up with H Palmer
    4.20 Ayr – Corton Lad 25.0 (Dagleish / Makin) 43.75% win SR, 62.5% place SR
    7.10 Wolves – Langley Vale 5.6 (George Wood) 60% win SR, 80% place SR when teaming up with R Teal

    Another interesting race to note is the 7.40 Wolves, Horses bred by “Sea the Stars” over 1m 1/2F at Wolves have an excellent record of 4 runs 3 wins 4 places and Sir Mark Prescott has a first time out 2yr old namely Starshell which fits that bill, Luke Morris takes the ride and is available around 15.0 certainly worth a watch if nothing else.

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 16/09/16 11:45 PM Reply


  • Hi all

    Running a bit of a test post today focusing on Newbury and looking at the worst performing sires on ground combined with distance and direction so the list below are horses i would want to be against i:e LAY or eliminate from final selections

    1.10 Newbury – City of Joy 3.45 LAY
    1.45 Newbury – Tashaar 11.0 LAY
    2.15 Newbury – Harry Angel 4.5 LAY
    2.50 Newbury – Scarlet Dragon 14.5 LAY
    3.25 Newbury – Fine Blend 23.0 LAY
    4.00 Newbury – Plant Pot Power 16.0 LAY
    4.35 Newbury – Izmir 6.8 & In Haste 17.5 LAY
    5.05 Newbury – Twenty Times 9.4 LAY

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 17/09/16 11:31 AM Reply


  • Nice to finally get back amongst the winners. Cracking day of racing although I think the best bets are away from Ayr.

    Firstly I really like Cotai Glory in the 15:25 who I think should be favourite. Has been there or thereabouts in a number of the top sprint races this year and drops down to a Grade 3 where he is 1 for 2. George Baker returning is a definite plus. Soft ground not a problem considering he was a neck 2nd on it in the Group 1 Kings Stand. On his only visit to the track he chased Limato home as a 2yr old over an inadequate 6f. He has finished 12 on breaks of less than 15 days. He is 2/5, 4 places in fields of 11 or less. He is effectively 2/3 in September (was 2 lengths clear when unshipping Baker virtually on the line as a 2yr old). There are only five left in opposition and barring Boom the Groom (never won a listed race or ever race in Group company) or Spirit Quartz (no wins above listed level) none have proven to have handled soft ground.

    Next we move to the 18:25 at Catterick where I think Royal Normandy looks to have a very good chance. Drops down to a Class 6 for the first time in over a year where he is 1/3, 2 places. More importantly his new trainer puts on cheekpieces for the first time. (he was 2/7, 5 places with them on for Balding). All his best form last year has been with them on and riding out front or prominantly. Finally George Buckell gets the ride taking a handy 5lbs off. He has been riding out of his skin lately particularly doing a good job of judging the pace fromt he front including a fine ride on Bahamian Sunrise on wednesday and is 4/12, 5 places in the past 30 days. Is effectively 7lbs below his last wining mark. He is drawn 2 so should be able to either lead of stay just off the pace.

    Moving on to Ayr I dont have a pick in the Silver Cup (if I did it would be Get Knotted). I do think Fort Bastion is worth a chance in the 15:10. Was 5th in this last year off a 7lb higher mark and baring the one time has generally ran a solid race at the track including a win and a 3rd over CD. The form of that 3rd has worked out well with the winner following up winning a big handicap at the Galway festival and than going close agian in another one and a listed race. Gets a 6lb weight swing with the second who also runs here. That also happened to be the last time Danny Tudhope was on board and he returns here. Both his best runs recently has been with some cut in the ground. Finally the have finally taken the blinkers off which I think he is huge since both his last win and his best run this season (3rd on this season’s re-appearance which was the first time every he hasnt needed a run) have been without any headgear.

    Moving on the Gold Cup and whilst it is a tentative selection I have to have a bet on Sir Robert Chaval (its interesting how Josh, Ben Aitken and Dr Nick all use different trends for this race) given at 33/1 he looked way too big considering he fits all the trends. Drawn on the low side I thought it was eye-catching that Hamilton takes the ride. I dont understand why he isnt on Growl but suspect he would have had several to pick from here. Last seen when running Magnus Maximums close at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. Gets in off a low weight here and should outrun his odds.

    Lastly I want to have a bet on Bertwhittle in the 16:55 at Ayr. First took my eye when running Certificate very close 3 runs ago in a class 2. That horse has since franked the form in a much better race taking the Revival Stakes and was one of the favourites for a listed race yesterday before being pulled due to the ground. Lincoln winning yesterday also franked the form. He than ran well at Leicester (was slowly away) and Chester however neither tracks suits a hold up horse like him so those runs should be marked up. Remains in a class 3 today and I am expecting him to finally get his head in front. Barron is in excellent form and the jockey is 1,5, 4 places on him.

    Good luck if you follow.

    Nick Mazur 17/09/16 11:51 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh and fellow readers

    Always interesting to read other peoples angles and reasoning and I thought I would post my thinking.

    Its always good to select the winner of a big field sprint handicap and I like them like most others but there can be hard luck stories. Over the years I have found I am best at good (at least 0-90) all aged handicaps over at least 1m2f on the flat and good handicap hurdles and chases (at least 0-125) over the jumps usually at top grade tracks. Quite a few options today:

    14.50 Newbury
    15.50 Newmarket
    16.20 Ayr
    17.30 Ayr

    I subscribe to Proform and use its form analysis tools but also look at the racing post particularly speed figures and RPRs.

    I have the 14.50 Newbury down to last years winner What About Carlo, and also one of the Johnston trio (was 4 but one withdrawn) Sennockian Star who is too well handicapped to ignore. Ok I know the latter has not won for quite a while but he his well in on his best and has another 7lb off his back with the jockey.

    Cheers

    John

    John Begg 17/09/16 1:29 PM Reply


  • Left the big afternoon races go without a bet today,Just had 16/1 winner at wolverhampton,Rae Guest 2yo 5/12 last 5 yrs Ode To Glory,getting the hang of the flat just as it ends

    gerry 17/09/16 7:54 PM Reply


    • nice winner and drift. was on it at 10s

      daniel 17/09/16 8:14 PM Reply


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