3.45 -Ayr Gold Cup
G Force – 1 point win – 14/1 – 16/1
Magnus Maximus – 1 point win – 10/1-12/1
Rivellino – 1/2 point win – 25/1 – 33/1
Given my form in these big sprints I am going to be a bit cautious and just go with three on the nose, 2.5 points bet. It is a very tough race and I am sticking with my stats profile…
My 8 years stats research from the last 8 renewals suggests that you want: Top 10 LTO / Age 3-6 / carrying 9-00 to 9-6 (exc claims) / 0-2 track runs / 1-5 handicap wins / 1-2 class wins / Not dropping in class / Not moving up in distance
I think that leaves a shortlist of just 4…
Growl / Rivellino / G Force / Magnus Maximus.
The stats behind that profile are all strong and we shall see if it holds true in this race. Here’s hoping.
G Force – well he is a former Group 1 winner of the Betfred Haydock Sprint Cup. His run in the race last year wasn’t that bad either. This is no group 1, and maybe he is no group 1 horse anymore. This is still only the 18th run of his life and the 5th for his new trainer, A Keatley. He likes having winners here and is starting to make a name for himself. The horse doesn’t mind a bit of cut from what I can see and he also has the best of the draw historically. All 8 winners of recent years have been drawn 8-20. The record of those ‘on the wings’ has been poor and I wonder if that is because by the time this race is run the wings may have been mashed up by all the other races. Who knows. I wouldn’t be dogmatic about that, or let it put you off one. This ones mark has come down from a high of 118 or so and he runs off 102 here. You do wonder , given the purse and the trainer’s liking for sending raiders over, whether this has been the plan. It could be he has gone at the game a bit but his last run was OK. The trainer is in form also, and has had a winner at the meeting as I write. He will also get some pace to aim at here I think. More on that in a mo.
Magnus Maximus – well he hasn’t done much wrong really. It looks like he gets to run off the same mark as LTO and that win was in a decent enough race, chased home by a good horse. He led all the way there which is no easy thing in any big field, and not the easiest thing at Ascot either. He is drawn in 21 and will blast out. I have no idea of the jockey will stay high or if they all try and coalesce up the middle. As I write (2.13 pm Friday) jockeys seem to be shunning the far side and are all coming up the middle. This one just looks progressive, cut is no problem, the trainer remains in form and the jockey is in form. I can’t really see a chink. The only doubt is whether he gets in a pace battle and a load of these do too much up front. Possible.
Growl…well I can’t say anything to put you off him really and he looks like a good saver bet. But, tipping a horse at 5s in this race seems a bit dirty. He may well win like one but there are the draw stats, he has had 49 days off and I can’t work out the jockey booking. Lee is ok, and when he first switched to the flat rode plenty of winners for Fahey. This is only his second ride for him of 2016 I think. Hamilton and McNamara have both ridden him more recently and I have no ideea why either of those are not on. A puzzle. He can also be held up off the pace and will need luck on many fronts. So may G Force, but the odds make up for that niggle. An obvious chance I suppose. He won’t be far away.
Rivellino- UPDATE: I had left the final selection but have changed my mind. What I originally wrote is below. I don’t want to be leaving another 20/1+ job on a stats shortlist. While he has been kept to decent ground he has never raced on slower from what I can see. An unknown. Maybe he will relish it. He is drawn in the right spot on what is transpiring this afternoon. The trainer is in form so who knows. Worth 1/2 a point to find out….
Well he is a big price and you never know. Maybe a shilling on just in case! 28/1 winner and 40/1 second (Gt St Wilfred/Kerry National) have both been left un-backed on recent shortlists using my same approach to profiling etc. However, this one is 0/16, 4 places on turf and has been kept exclusively to decent ground when running on grass. He hasn’t proved he won’t handle it. Maybe he will bolt up and connections will wonder why they never tried it previously! He isn’t running that great either. But, he looks to be coming from the right section of the stalls as well, historically.
The market may guide. All winners have been Top 10 in the market, 20/1 or shorter SP in the last 8 years and rarely is there a big big shock.
PACE- well on paper there is a hell of a lot. Pace wise it is spread right across the track so there should be no pace bias. It is just whether there is a going bias, or a perceived one from the jockeys. There are 7 out and out front runners that I can see drawn 3,4,7 on the low side and 17,20,21,24 on the high side. You could argue more sustained pace may be high. If they shun the rail a bit then middle to high could be favoured. But, there are also another 5 or 6 pace pushers as well and they are spread all over the place. They won’t hang around.
Again, as I write they have just read out the going stick readings… 6.9 on the stand side, 7.5 middle 7.5 low…so, middle to low is preferable on the going stick at least. Interesting.
So, make out of that lot what you will. You can’t be overly confident in a race like this or given my form in these either. One of them will drop in one day and I hope one of my pins has landed on the winner. As ever you can make a case for plenty in here. It is that sort of race.
Back with the rest in due course.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Three starting points for Saturday…
- 1.35 Newm: Patching 50/1… i suspect this one doesn’t have a chance and some big yards are represented in here but you never know and the trainer is 5/19, 8 places, +62 SP with those making their second start. That looks like an angle to note moving forward as I suspect many of his are overlooked but they clearly come on for the run.
- 4.25 Newm: Summer Chorus 13/2… Trainer and Jockey are 2/6, 5 places when teaming up at both the Newmarket tracks, one of those wins on this horse. That is it really. She ran well over this trip two starts ago and was keen/ran into trouble over 7f LTO. This is a different track though.
- 9.10 Wolvs: Sunshineandbubbles (no price yet) – trainer and jockey are 3/6, 3 places in handicaps here. Fanning rides this one for the first time on his second start over this distance. Last time he ran into a bit of trouble at a crucial stage and it will be interesting if he can build on it. Trainer is 1/28, 7 places, 30 days, 0/14, 1 place 14 days so some caution I suppose.
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS BETS
3.45 Ayr- Jack Dexter
5.30 – Braes Of Lochaelsh
4.10 – Dominada
4.45 – I Am Not Here
Newb (6/1< guide, a few biggies gone in this year)
2.50 – Shell Bay
4.00 – Himself / Plant Pot Power / Swag
4.35 – See You When
3.50 Newm – Air Squadron (16/1<)
OTT – 4.20 Ayr- Arrowzone (16/1< guide)
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
No luck with Ocean Sheridan and it rather summed up my run really. That is the best any horse I have backed this year has travelled I think, certainly in a sprint. The inevitable door shut in his face when it looked like he would take this race with a bit in hand. Moving on…
This is a tentative bet really…
2.35 Silver Cup…
Lexington Abbey – 1 point EW – 18/1-16/1 (5 places)
The stats and trends I used to narrow this down left a shortlist of: Flying Pursuit / Intense Style / Eccleston / Lexington Abbey
Lexington Abbey – well he is a frustrating horse if you happen to own a share in him and I know at least one of you reading these pages does just that. I have no idea what happened the last day as he drifted to the far side and was never really in it. The race before that at York can maybe written off as he was drawn on the near side which has been a graveyard at times this season. The two runs before that were very good and a repeat of either would have to put him in the mix here I think. The race wasn’t run to suit when Kimberella won and again had the wrong end of the draw. The time before that he nearly won at Ascot in a decent enough sprint handicap. He clearly has ability and 6f with cut seems to be fine having looked through his form. He seems versatile. He is drawn on the right side if the first two days are an indication. Middle to low have been the place to be. We shall see what kind of run we get but he has the ability for this. Maybe he has mental issues or this has been the plan! (probably not) Ryan has had a winner here this week and is blowing hot and cold.
Flying Pursuit gets first time blinkers which may make a difference and he has been running well. The draw is a but off putting given what has happened to date. The same for Intense Style. Eccleston is interesting but I think there may be classier animals in here. He is running well though. Tudhope would have had a choice but that may not mean much.
We shall see how the profile gets one.
I haven’t looked at every horse in detail in this and have very much used the my stats profile as a guide.
My longer list of horses against a few stats included Nuno Tristan/ Muntadab / Avon Breeze / Reputation / Shipyard / Handsome Dude.
Maybe I have left a winner on one of those lists!
That will be all for Saturday.
Good luck with your bets.