FREE DAILY POST: 15/09/16 (COMPLETE)

MEMBERS CLUB: Some Ayr Trainer Notes HERE>>> Hopefully they can do as well as Donny.

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There is no hiding place when you blog about horse racing and that has to go down as a truly awful afternoon on many levels. I won’t pour salt in my wounds here but it was poor on my part and nothing went right. The two main selections at Listowel were never in it. The outsider planted herself at the start and that was that. The Elliot horse never really travelled either and fell at some stage. That is racing and I didn’t realise one of them had an attitude.  Of more concern was how I dismissed the first and second. Unlike a few recent near misses that I have crossed off my list last I wasn’t that close to backing those. That is an issue. The 33/1>16/1 second was the third of three horses on the stats shortlist. Much pondering to do there.  Lydia’s Place lost a shoe having looked to be going along fine and that appears to have counted, fading a bit and losing out on fourth on the line. She halved in price and that somewhat summed up the day.

Anyway, I won’t dwell on that much longer on here. Lessons must be learnt. An awful day. Horses/races make you look foolish sometimes and that is as bad as that gets really considering it was a 24f muddy handicap chase. I will be working hard to ensure that is the low point of a miserable few months.

Credit where it is due. JV said in the comments the race was exactly what Wrath Of Titans wanted. How right he was. My good racing buddy Ben Aitken also put up Killer Crow – as well as the 1st and 2nd. Drinks on him!

Heads up and moving on…

***

After days like that some racing perspective always helps…

Farewell to a Friend… this morning I read an article my Matt B over at Geegeez. It somewhat leaves a lump in your throat and it was written following the life ending injury sustained by one of his syndicate horses, Nonagon. I was in one of his syndicates once and we had a horse who suffered a life threatening, career ending injury. Thankfully he was saved but sadly Nonagon was not. It is hard to explain the emotions you go through when something happens like that but Matt has done it rather well here. You can read this rather moving piece HERE>>>

 

***

A quiet day ahead.  A ‘day off’ from looking at any horses in depth before Ayr’s three big sprints roll into view. I am unsure if/how I will play those but I need to do some trends/stats research as well as plenty of jumps research stuff to be getting on with. 

 

TIPS 

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Pam Sly (any odds)

4.25 Yarm – All My Love

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS

Ponte (9/1<)

2.55 – Normandy Knight

3.25 – Modernism

5.40 – Star Drifter

Ayr (16/1<)

2.00 – Nicholas T

4.15 – Fry

***

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TEST ZONE 

None.

***

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Dawoodi is a tentative selection in the 2.45 at Yarmouth for Jim Crowley mainly due to his association with Hugo Palmer,4/1 is not great value but wont get many like sundays winner,elsewhere in the 4.25 is Tafetta lady,Lucy Wadham has good record at the track and Freddy Tylicki does well for her as well as at the course,My main profit earner last sason has come to an end with George/Brennan,strange decision but understandable,Brennan has really come to the fore as a top jockey(best in my opinion)wont be scrambling round for good horses anyway

    gerry 14/09/16 7:23 PM Reply


    • Good luck Gerry. Yep agree. Bit of an off one. Maybe something has gone on behind the scenes but as you say I can’t think he will struggle for decent horses/rides, especially chasers. Can’t think many wouldn’t want him on a chaser. An interesting season ahead.

      Josh 14/09/16 7:34 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    I said on this blog sometime ago to put your shortlist list up like you did today and on Sat, 1 winner, 1 runner up.
    This allows us to make a choice either back them all like I did except the res, or pick and choose.
    Just making the shortlist is a great start for us novices without the aid of HRB.

    Keep putting up that shortlist Josh

    Great Punting and roll on the NH, I will be curtailing my betting on the Flat next season.

    Mike

    Mike Dennis 14/09/16 7:47 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      Yep I will continue with that shortlisting approach, finding 1-4 horses of interest to use as a starting point. There will be plenty of those when the jumping gets going proper in addition to 3m+ chases analysis etc. There will be one up tomorrow provided a few things stand out. I keep finding myself running out of time in the day to do the things I want to hence a quiet day today, ahead of a few busy days coming up I suspect.
      Yep, flat has been tough. Some promise in the test zone, if not in sprint handicap main tips. The number of tipped horses that have won on their next few starts at decent odds gives some promise that I can do better next season with that approach. Plenty to work on as always.
      GL today if you play anything
      Josh

      Josh 15/09/16 7:57 AM Reply


  • Hi all

    Following on from a post earlier this week regarding the updated “Newcastle Stallions” a suggestion was made by Paul to cross reference Wolverhampton i:e Tapeta to see how the Sires with limited data fared at Wolves..
    So using the same criteria, below are the relevant performances of all selected sires with Newcastle first:

    Azamour 2 bets 1 win 2 places ———–Azamour 86 bets 10 wins 26 places
    Cape Cross 10 bets 3 wins 6 places ———Cape Cross 647 bets 122 wins 287 places
    Captain Gerrard 2 bets 1 win 1 place ——–Captain Gerrard 110 bets 10 wins 34 places
    Casamento 1 bet 1 win 1 place ——————Casamento 0 bets
    Desert Style 1 bet 1 win 1 place ——————-Desert Style 293 bets 34 wins 105 places
    Discreet Cat 5 bets 2 wins 3 places ————— Discreet Cat 0 bets
    Dutch Art 6 bets 5 wins 5 paces ——————–Dutch Art 214 bets 34 wins 83 places
    Elusive Quality 3 bets 1 win 2 places —————Elusive Quality 216 bets 42 wins 90 places
    Fast Company 6 bets 2 wins 4 places —————-Fast Company 69 bets 13 wins 28 places
    Fastnet Rock 10 bets 4 wins 8 places ——————Fastnet Rock 43 bets 11 wins 18 places
    Helmet 2 bets 2 wins 2 places —————————-Helmet 1 bet 0 wins 1 place
    Intense Focus 5 bets 2 wins 2 places ——————–Intense Focus 63 bets 9 wins 31 places
    Le Havre 1 bet 1 win 1 place ———————————Le Havre 11 bets 2 wins 4 places
    Major Cadeaux 4 bets 2 wins 3 places ———————–Major Cadeaux 44 bets 4 wins 11 places
    Mujahid 1 bet 1 win 1 place ————————————–Mujahid 198 bets 24 wins 58 places
    Phoenix Reach 1 bet 1 win 1 place —————————–Phoenix Reach 34 bets 3 wins 6 places
    Piccolo 3 bets 1 win 2 places —————————————-Piccolo 787 bets 109 wins 260 places
    Pivotal 9 bets 3 wins 7 places —————————————-Pivotal 619 bets 119 wins 284 places
    Poets Voice 5 bets 2 wins 2 places ———————————-Poets Voice 21 bets 3 wins 8 places
    Power 3 bets 1 win 2 places ———————————————Power 0 bets
    Rio De La Plata 1 bet 1 win 1place ————————————-Rio De La Plata 0 bets
    Rip Van Winkle 2 bets 1 win 2 places ———————————-Rip Van Winkle 48 bets 11 wins 18 places
    Roderic O Conner 2 bets 1 win 1 place ———————————–Roderic O Conner 20 bets 3 wins 10 places
    Sea The Stars 5 bets 3 wins 3 places —————————————Sea The Stars 29 bets 8 wins 14 places
    Speightstown 1 bet 1 win 1 place ——————————————–Speightstown 79 bets 18 winners 38 places
    Street Cry 6 bets 3 wins 4 places ———————————————Street Cry 200 bets 39 wins 90 places
    Tamayuz 2 bets 1 win 1 place —————————————————Tamayuz 80 bets 17 winners 37 places

    Cross referencing the two the SR at Wolves are considerably less than at Newcastle with the highest winning percentage being 27.59% Sea the Stars, the place SR however fares better with 12 of the 23 sires hitting above 40% SR and 8 of those above 45%….Of course there is limited data at Newcastle and also a difference with the makeup of the track with all Wolves races being run round a bend wheras Newcastle run many on the straight track up to a mile i believe but correct me if I’m wrong. Still its a good basis to work from and I’ll be continually monitoring / updating & optimising this Newcastle strategy each month.

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 14/09/16 9:05 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve. Great stuff,
      Paul

      blueboy199 15/09/16 1:24 PM Reply


  • Several Qualifiers for tomorrow as follows no price caps:

    4.15 Ayr – Livella Fella 15.0 (Dalgleish / Makin) 46.67% Win SR, 63.33% Place SR
    4.50 Ayr – Maleficient Queen 6.5 (Dalgleish / Makin) 46.67% Win SR, 63.33% Place SR
    7.20 Chelmsford – Johnny B Goode 10.0 (De Souza / Dwyer AW) 40.0% Win SR, 62.86% Place SR
    7.20 Chelmsford – Brick Lane 5.5 (Josephine Gordon) 47.83% Win SR, 71.74% Place SR
    8.20 Chelmsford – Theydon Thunder 11.0 (George Wood) 48.28% Win SR, 65.52% Place SR
    9.20 Chelmsford – First Summer 3.5 (George Wood) 48.28% Win SR, 65.52% Place SR

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 14/09/16 9:46 PM Reply


  • To be fair, Josh, there were reasons not to be able to have Wrath Of Titans. A couple of uninspiring efforts in previous big handicap pots and the very inexperienced jockey, suggesting that this one was probably about the 5th string of the Gigginstown whip!

    Anyway, just keep cracking away and the profits will come back NH 2015-16 stylee!

    Ali 14/09/16 11:07 PM Reply


    • Yep- I have slept on it a bit. Always compounded when your main bets run so badly! I did have unfounded jockey reservations and I suppose 9s just about allowed a chance to be taken. I did wonder whether he relished that ground and would get the distance on it. The fact that he sluiced through and stamina won the day was the issue I suppose. He was unexposed, and had never raced in those exact conditions before. And it was his third start for Elliot and had a couple of hurdle runs before. Never mind. I had the same view on the second, and I usually tip something I think will out-run odds and has a chance of competing. I had stamina doubts about him which kind of proved right given how he emptied for win purposes but had enough there for the places. You live and learn. It was a competitive race but another there where nothing came from behind again. If you were not in front third you were done for really.

      Josh 15/09/16 8:01 AM Reply


      • Actually thought Tom Scu rode a very clever race on Gas Line Boy, that horse needs to be “interested” and he almost got the fractions right and if he hadn’t hit one hard down the back second time round he may have been closer. I think they identified that many of the “class” horses in the race were 2 and a half milers, and therefore set out to make it a real stamina test, which played in to the hands of the winner and runner up but basically stuffed half the field after the first circuit.

        Ian 15/09/16 9:22 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        This game can leave you scratching your head, questioning your judgements and shatter confidence at times…and I’m pretty certain everyone involved has been there at some point, Its all about what approach each of us use if it works long term term then being consistent with that approach. There is no doubt that your approach with 3m + chasers is excellent and you have the long term results to prove that and days like yesterday will always come along as there is so many unforseen variable factors with Horse Racing. We can all learn from different appraches but it has to be the one that sits well with the individual and following it through the season regrdless of one off races or days will bear the fruit at the end of the term..

        My best approach that works for me is short to medium term statistical analysis but that can lead to blow out days just the same as my judgements of Laytown proved with a few BOT’s sprinkled in (Back Of Tv) but that is ok because the same approach will work brillliantly another day and is just the nature of the game we are in….So continue your excellent work Josh as undoubtably your winners will flow

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 15/09/16 9:30 AM Reply


        • Cheers Steve, all very true. If that had happened in the middle of February I would have moved on quite quickly – always worse when you have been in a slump!
          I have had a confidence boosting look at my results in 3m+ handicap chases in 2016 to date, inc yesterday….

          132 bets / 22 wins / 42 wins|p / 16.6% win SR / +99.45 points

          10.7/1 average winning odds

          168.5 points staked I think, which leaves an ROI of 59%.

          Stick to what you know I suppose. That doesn’t include a good little spell Oct-Dec 2015, including 33/1 Becher chase winner, Cue Card and a few others, plus a few losers.

          So, plenty to look forward to I hope!

          Josh 15/09/16 10:13 AM Reply


      • Yeah likewise looked back at the race and historically claimers haven’t had the best of times and were 2/69 before yesterday so I think I would have struggled to pick the winner out. On the plus side it was another winner having a prep run over hurdles making it 7 in the last 10 years so that’s definitely one of the key starting points for next year as far as the trends are concerned.

        Nick Mazur 15/09/16 1:22 PM Reply


  • A tracker horse for me today is Chebsey Beau (16.35) @ Ponte. which I have put forward here before. The angle today is the uphill finish here which will suit his run style. He has dropped to a reasonable weight despite running consistently well and T/J stats look fine.

    Tom 15/09/16 7:58 AM Reply


  • Another angle I was looking at was how sires have fared on different states of ground in the current year so started off with 5F Soft 2016 only….

    3 sires come out with a 100% SR but only raced once, Probably the most eyecatching is Elnadim with 6 runs 4 wins 5 places and Helvellyn with 13 runs 5 wins 6 places.

    One race to note today is the 5.20 Ayr with 4 possible selections shown below with sire stats

    Go Go Green 11.0 – Acclamation – 18 runs 5 wins 7 places
    Sarabi 17.0 – Rip Van Winkle – 3 runs 1 win 2 places
    Anieres Boy 17.0 – Kheylef – 4 runs 1 win 3 places
    Rock Canyon 34.0 – Rock of Gibraltor – 1 run 0 wins 1 place

    The above is purely based on how the sires have fared over 5F soft ground 2016 with no draw or track bias involved but hopefully this will help on narrowing down any selections

    Good Luck all

    Steve Wiseman 15/09/16 9:46 AM Reply


    • I missed the price on GGG, expecting a drift, it looks sure to be placed to me. I’ve backed Sarabi this morning as the third of G Baker’s rides and on a soft going set of parents. All GB’s have a chance – he doesn’t venture this far north v. often – but I’ve backed Fray in 415 as I’ve been anticipating a good run stepped up in trip.

      Chris 15/09/16 10:11 AM Reply


  • Hi josh,no joy yesterday,like yourself had a few quid on killer crow each way but got no run for my money,such is life.Still wouldn’t take anything away from the winner, Alhart in the pointers post managed to find him so at least someone on here had a good day.

    One little tactic Ive used over the years at the listowel festival is to look out for horses who have run and placed in the first 3 earlier in the week at the course and are turned out again later in the week,they tend to have a great record.Just the one qualifier today,Stamp of Authority in the 2.25(Kanahari was another but was withdrawn)

    Historically this particular race has proved quite profitable when applying this little rule.

    2015 Snakes and Ladders won (only qualifier)
    2014 (no qualifier)
    2013 Fulminata won (only qualifier)
    2012 (no qualifier)
    2011 Darasal Wane won (only qualifier)
    2010 Dumdrum Dancer finished 2nd
    Sassaway finished 3rd

    Not a massive price @ 7/2,but worth a wee bet for me with that sort of history in mind.

    rob 15/09/16 11:14 AM Reply


    • Hi Rob, great stuff- superb little angle that is. I will watch with interest and hopefully he bolts up for you. GL

      Josh 15/09/16 11:18 AM Reply


  • I like two today.

    I believe that Kassia, 4.00 Po, is progressing and at 3/1 is a win bet.

    I like Calvados Spirit, 5.30 Ya, each way. I believe it to be suited to the course and at 8/1 is worth a go.

    I sympathise with you Josh on your lack of winner picking at present. Things turn around over time and so keep your thinking clear and focused and success will come.

    martin colwell 15/09/16 12:58 PM Reply


  • Yesterday was about as bad as you can get although beat the SP on most of them so just got to keep plugging away.

    No time for write ups but I am on Miss Van Gough in the 14:00 Ayr and Royal Duchess in the 14:35.

    Nick Mazur 15/09/16 1:24 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh for pointing the way at Ayr,Had sporting Yankee at 10/1,could have had another from that source if i was watching prices, a game battling performance from Taffeta Lady for a dead heat, so all in all a good day at the office.

    gerry 15/09/16 5:17 PM Reply


    • hurrah! Glad to hear you used those notes to good effect to find him. Yep had to watch market for the Burke ones a bit. Glad you found him.

      Josh 15/09/16 5:31 PM Reply


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