FREE DAILY POST: 10/09/16 (complete)

+34.5 points so far…

Dr Nick Hardman… appears to have kept up his rather good recent form- that form stretching back some 21 months or so! I believe on my maths, to advised stakes/prices…he is +34.5 points up after the first three days of the St Leger meeting. Returns for various members may differ slightly but i think that is roughly right having just been through the selections over the last three days. 5 winners and a few placed horses so far.

Hopefully those of you who took a chance have had a good few days and even to small stakes that is a rather enjoyable return to date. And, there is still one more day to go.

If you want to find out more about his festival tips service, you can do so HERE>>>

***

Donny Notes… my own ‘self help starting points’ highlighted Roger Varian and David Simcock’s superb recent record at the St Leger meeting and it was nice to see them have a good Friday- Varian has three winners at the meeting now. He was 5/17, 12 places +31SP with all runners at the last three meetings before this year. Winners at 13/8, 6/1 and 14/1 can be added to that now. Simcock was 4/15, 6 places in the same period before this year’s meeting. 3/4,3 places +14 points with those sent off 7/1  or shorter. We can add another winner to that list now.

Anyway, I hope some Members Club members may have found a few of those winners using those notes. There will have been a few losers highlighted no doubt as well! Fahey has also contributed to the pot also with a couple of winners.

***

I return from Croatia late Saturday evening so Sunday’s post will be up on Sunday morning. I would recommend a trip to Zadar if you like sun and sea. A great place to relax if you like a ‘sit down’ holiday!

***

TIPS

Portland Handicap

I don’t have the time/desire to look through the Portland Handicap in any depth given I am in ‘re charge’ mode but given there won’t be any tips i will share my ‘winning profile’ from the stats/trends post that Members have had a chance to get to grips with. This is very much a guide but on the stats that stood out to me a ‘winning profile’ may look like…

  • OR 95-101
  • 1-6 runs this season
  • NOT GB Bred
  • Drawn 7 or higher
  • Pay close attention to more unexposed types: 1-8 career run, 1-6 runs in handicaps

 

If you ignore the draw for a moment I believe that leaves (but do go through yourselves) Judicial / Red Pike / Captain Colby and…. (drawn 4)… Mont Kiara.

It would be nice if one of those first three could win. Judicial has been tipped before and won LTO at Chester. He is a fractious beast and it depends on the start for him but he seems in form and is open to progress still. Red Pike- I tipped him LTO at Goodwood so naturally he is going to win soon! 🙂 (not carrying any of my money probably!) How he has been raised after that last run is beyond me and the capper could well have him but he is a decent price and will be front rank. Captain Colby ran a belter from arguably the wrong side LTO and I can see why he is 8/1. He also fits that profile of recent winners being more unexposed etc (final bullet point above)

It will be interesting to see how they get on.

What do you fancy?

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Aug/Sept Trainer

Ivory (16/1<)

3.35 Ling – R Bar Open

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

4.30 Chest: Masamah (12/1<)

5.15 Ling  Pretty Bubbles (9/1<)

5.55 Muss: La Contessa (any odds)

7.00 Muss: Gabrial The Terror (any odds)

 

SYSTEMS TEST 

OTT – 3.50 Bath: Khattar (16/1<)

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hope your having a great time Josh. Pleased to say that I joined up with Nick Hardman on Wednesday!!
    With regard to the Portland, if you recall I have a small share in Lexington Abbey. Basically he had next to no chance the last twice from his draw in the car park. Naturally I was keen to see how he fared against your stats. Raced between 1-6 times (5) and age (5) were positives but unfortunately they were just about the only ones. Being British bred and having a rating of 94 at are negatives, although they don’t really bother me. What does concern me are the draw stats. Sods law again as we’re drawn 2! However the 6 furlong sprint on Thursday seemed to favour the middle/low numbers. Certainly anything that raced in the group on the stand rails had no chance, so I suppose despite the stats I would rather be drawn 2 than 22. Apparently he’s in good form at home (aren’t they always!) and I fancy him more than LTO at York when he was 10/1. I couldn’t resist a decent bet at 25/1 with Bet 365 this afternoon, but he’s now been backed in to 14/1 which is probably about right – not much value in that price.
    Whatever happens should be a good day at Donny.

    Steve Dean 10/09/16 12:17 AM Reply


  • Following on from Josh’s comments re David Simcock at the Leger meeting, I have a saved micro for him with various filters which result in very limited qualifiers during the year, but is operating since 2013 @ 13/11, 85%, +61.63 pts, and the first qualifiers this year are:

    4:50 Can’t Change It 12/1
    6:00 Felix Mendelssohn 7/2

    Also from a George Baker September micro;

    Bath 4:55 Alcatraz 4/1

    Chris R.

    broadsword 10/09/16 9:32 AM Reply


    • Great stuff Chris- that is a handy little micro angle! Well done. Good to see Simcock have another good day at the meeting.

      Josh 11/09/16 10:52 AM Reply


  • Think you might not be too far away with your selections in the Portland Josh with Red Pike being the one I’m interested in. Like you, I can’t imagine why the capper has put his mark up other than consistency which might be his undoing but I’ll take the chance that the extra 1/2 a furlong here might do the trick… I’ll be there today for a stag thing so could be costly

    fingers 10/09/16 9:37 AM Reply


  • Josh you might not always get it right my son, but you are a jolly good read and I always take notice of your little ditties…..my best bet today has to be New Bay in the Irish Championship stakes 6.45 Leopardstown.

    Have a good day

    Dicky

    Richard Dickens 10/09/16 10:41 AM Reply


    • Thanks Dicky, much appreciated.

      Josh 11/09/16 10:52 AM Reply


  • I Like Red Pike at 16/1 in the 2.35 Do; Breton Rock in the 3.10 and Withernsea in the 7.20 Le. All seem to be well weighted for their races and conditions to suit?

    martin colwell 10/09/16 11:22 AM Reply


    • Thanks Josh, took Captain Colby at 9/1, Harry Hurricane 3rd at 14/1, Thanks Malcolm for Breton Rock 15/2, Thanks Chis Can’t change It 10/1. Also good day for Easy Odds recommended on these pages a few weeks back 2 from 3 today at 3/1 & 3/1. So a very good day +30 points. Keep the informed views coming, I appreciate them. PS the following of the free HT/FT service from Greg Swift recommended on the site has returned 14 points across the two Premier League weekends. Sorry I can’t contribute any informed opinion but very happy to make my monthly donation. Keep up the good work, & your forte, the jump season isn’t too far away!

      lately 10/09/16 7:45 PM Reply


      • No probs. Good to see Captain Colby win and glad you had a nibble! Yep David Simcock improved on his decent record – I may just look to back all of his and Varian’s next year!! A good day all round for team RTP.

        Josh 11/09/16 10:48 AM Reply


  • Jim Crowley cleaned up at lingfield but i couldn’t find anything stats and value wise to conclusively be confident on anything there,his first ride at chelmsford on Aventus for Hugo Palmer at 9/1 bet365 is the one I have selected for tomorrow,has 34% strike rate for trainer on 2yo,Jim is powering ahead in title race,hopfully he can keep going

    gerry 10/09/16 7:07 PM Reply


Post A Reply