FREE DAILY POST: 08/09/16 (complete)

Just a reminder that I am Zadar for a few days so the blog’s content is lighter than it can be and that everything will start to ramp up again on my return, especially as the winter jumpers start stretching their legs again.

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Good to see Richard Fahey continue his decent record with horses sent off at 14/1 or shorter at the St Leger meeting. 2 wins , 6/4 and 5/1 from three potential bets I believe and I hope some of you may have had a nibble on one or both.

Those stats again, a ‘starting point’…

Richard Fahey (St Leger Meeting, 2013/14/15)

Positives
• 14/1 or shorter: 4/19, 5 places… +31 SP
• 6.5f: 4/20, 4 places…+30 SP
• 2yo Only races: 3/23, 3 places…+16 SP
• 3-4 runs this season: 3/13, 4 places…+26 SP
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MICRO SYSTEMS 
Aug/Sept Trainer
Ivory (16/1<)
6.00 Donc – Rosies Premiere
8.10 Chelm – Jack The Laird
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 
None.
SYSTEMS TEST
‘One Track Trainers’
3.15 Epsom – Zacynthus (16/1< guide)
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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Fendale… he is an old ‘tip’ from three starts ago and caught the eye LTO… given what Fast Act did at Windsor this week (20/1>12/1 – WON, tipped two starts before,tipped again NTO, and then left for his Windsor run  … gulp. Not the first time that has happened in this test section. Sometimes I should clearly keep faith for longer) I should mention him. He did show more at Ripon and ran best of those drawn low- I think that run can be marked up on that basis given other four in front came from the other side of the track.
He runs in the 6pm Doncaster. I won’t be looking at the race and I wouldn’t back him on this basis alone- but use that info etc if you do look at the race. It will be interesting if he can build on that run LTO.
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That will be all.
About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Hope you’re having a good holiday Josh. I definitely think Fendale looks the one to beat in the 18:00 at Doncaster tomorrow. As well as running well from a bad draw LTO in a Class 2, trainer has won with 4 of his last 7 runners so very much in form. Looks to be drawn where most of the pace is. I do want to have a small saver on the low side of the draw however and at the prices I cant stop myself also having a bet on Holiday Magic. We know Easterby is a sly one and has picked this one up from Appleby. It looks like its been run over the wrong trip or ground in most of his five runs this year however his best run was two runs ago in the same race as Fendale. Like the main selection it was badly drawn but finished respectively only 2lbs behind. Its interesting that Easterby has decided to put Evans back on board considering it must be getting extremely well handicapped on old form (also only runner for both jockey and trainer) and is now racing effectively on 79 with the claim having won last year on 91. 33s seemed too big.

    Nick Mazur 07/09/16 7:53 PM Reply


  • Hi all

    Just following up on the 6.00pm at Doncaster a very open race and had a look at breaking it down by draw & sire then broke down further by month and age

    History of 6F races on ground at Doncaster have thrown up these stalls to avoid 17 to 19 & 21 to 22 conversely the best stalls have been 2,3,6,16 & 20….A complete anomaly is of course stall 20 which is bang smack in the middle of the worst ones…

    Using the draw and best performing sires would have a shortlist of Duke Cosimo, Rosies Premiere & Regal Dan….Then looking at September and the age of winning horses 6yr olds come out best which reduces this to Duke Cosimo 30.0 & Regal Dan 17.5….

    The Lay of the race would be Pomme De Terre with one of the worst draws and poor sire stats of 0-9 0 places

    Hopefully this helps in your analysis

    Enjoy your hols Josh and come back all guns blazing on your expertise of 3 mile + chases

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 08/09/16 11:04 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve….I haven’t written much as I’m on caring duty’s at my daughters after her op.
      Yes!, that stall 20 anomaly has always been there,,,i can’t fathom it……also….another 0% stall you’ll find is 13…Fendale…Now I know Nick is on, but discipline makes me pass it by…..But I suppose if a horse is good enough, then it’ll eventually break a taboo.
      BOL all……

      Tony Mc. 08/09/16 11:34 AM Reply


      • Hi Tony

        Hope your daughters recovering well….been busy myself but managed to have today off nothing much on the system front the last week but there is a couple for the sds/dwyer combo at Chelmsford tonight

        8.10 Annie Salts 13.0
        8.40 Commanche 9.0

        Hopefully 1 of these can pop in

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 08/09/16 2:28 PM Reply


        • Cheers Steve, She’s on the mend now…. just taking the G/kids to school etc and being a willing dogsboddie lol.
          She won’t really know until about a months time how it went.
          I think i’ll camp up there for a few weeks.

          I took 16s for RP too, along with 20s for DC…and a saver on Regal Dan.
          Typical that Fahey’s Celebration is in stall 20…lol.

          Tony Mc. 08/09/16 5:07 PM Reply


  • Rosies Premiere from stall 3 for the Birthday Boy Hanagan for me.

    16/1 @ bet365. They must be asleep.

    Steve 08/09/16 1:11 PM Reply


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