FREE DAILY POST: 05/09/16 (COMPLETE)

 

TO NOTE: I am off to Croatia Tuesday afternoon for a short break and return late on Saturday. I think that will be the last holiday I have before the end of April and it will be a clear run on here from when I return. I will have the lap-top and will update various systems bits but that will be it and I plan to do as little as possible on here while I am over there.

I am quite aware the last few months on here have been disappointing and I have struggled to find a settled approach. Clearly there is plenty for me to ponder next flat season and much to improve on. While time will tell if my tipping etc improves there will be more structure when the Jumps gets going properly. As well as any ‘system’ pointers the main focus will be 3m+ handicap/graded chases, C4+ and rarely will one of those pass without me having an in depth look. They will be the priority. I think the analysis side of things and the write ups, including for the Sprint Handicappers, is valued by you readers. I have always wanted this blog to be a mix of my own opinion- expressed in a way where you can also make up your own decisions/understand why I like something- and information that you can use yourself to profit. It is about getting the balance right and in the context of the time those various aspects take.

Ultimately if the blog isn’t enjoyable for you to read and isn’t helping you in some way make this game more profitable, there isn’t much point!

Anyway, plenty for me to ponder and your ideas/polite criticisms are always welcome.

Members… I will add up some notes/trends for the St Leger Festival today, before I head off.

Right, onto today…

 

TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Shortlist

  • 2.00 Brighton: One Big Surprise (NR) 10/1… Hughes is 5/15, 9 places with his handicappers here so far and also has one in the 3pm- but this is the one I like most. He is also 2/7,3 places in flat handicaps with this young jockey aboard. As importantly – the horse looks of some interest here and 10s just looks too big to me. I think there may be some cut but either way she is versatile ground wise so no excuses on that front. She is also now 0/5, 0 places on the AW so i am happy to put a line through the last run and she still ran OK. Before that she was just running very consistently. She was very unlucky at Lingfield where she got no sort of run for a long time and closed on them late. The Epsom run was ok in a C4 and she won a race before that. This is only her 10th turf start and there could be more to come. She is a hold up horse and will need some luck but importantly there looks to be some pace on paper here. The race is full of unexposed types and it looks a decent enough little race but 10s looks too big to me, with luck in running. 
  • 5.00 Brighton: World Record – 9/2WON (3.8/1 after 15p R4, 7/4 SP) looks ok here given the horse is 3/7, 4 places in C6 handicaps and runs over this trip, in a class 6, for the first time since his last win. He is also 2lb below his last winning mark. All wins at this distance and the trainer is 6/27, 11 places in handicaps here also- 4/11, 5 places over the distance. He is a CD winner also. It is the drop to C6 over 8f, and a return here, which most caught my eye. He also likes to lead/push the pace and while maybe not getting an easy lead should be in the right spot. The jockey is going well and should be full of confidence.

 

Those two pointers will do for today in this section.

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Pam Sly: 4.20 Wind: All My Love (any odds) NR

TTP: MAIN SYSTEM BETS 

4.00 Bright: Secular Society (any odds) NR

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None. I have looked at the 5.20 but nothing at a price is jumping out at me. Nocturn is interesting on old form but looks desperately out of sorts. He gets a hood here today but I was also put off by trainer form figures of 0/33, 4 places in the last month. Interesting how he goes at 20s but a race I was happy to leave. May Rose looks a worthy fav.

 

***

SYSTEM TEST

‘One Track Trainers’

2.50 Windsor: Times Legacy (16/1<) UP

Secular Society – is Baker’s only runner at Brighton which is a positive also from the notes at the end of that research post HERE>>>

***

TRAINERS IN FORM

4.50 Windsor: Gold Return 9/2 (14,30,C5) NR

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • A qualifier tomorrow from the Hcp chasers with no wins. Perth 2.40 – Rivabodiva 11/2.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 04/09/16 6:48 PM Reply


    • Yep I had a look at him Chris – trainer’s record with handicap debutants here is decent enough. I thought 11/2 was short enough given it is his first chase in public and the lengthy break. Russell is also only 2/42 with chasers at the track returning after a break of 60+ days. In the end those two things put me off from adding him to my shortlist. But, is a rather weak chase and clearly he is expected to show more over fences. Interesting how he goes in the market and whether I have made the right call! GL if you play on him.

      Josh 05/09/16 8:04 AM Reply


  • Jim Crowley and SDS go head to head at Brighton,the one I will be on is Buteo Bai for Lucy Wadham 3.30.Yet to saddle a winner here but the association is 38% strike rate in 3yo races for +45,its his first time to ride the horse so i would expect a better performance,its bottom of the pile stuff but will take chance at 7/1

    gearoid180468 04/09/16 9:26 PM Reply


    • Well done Gerry, did that fairly well!

      Josh 05/09/16 3:37 PM Reply


  • Well the flip side of poker is this weekend I got to play for 11 hours and made bugger all but I guess after last weekend I cant complain.

    Just the one for me tomorrow in the opener at Brighton. Symposium has always been thought of highly and when interviewed before the season Haggas said he hoped she would do well this year. Whilst she has ran ok in most of her races barring LTO when she didn’t stay the full seven furlongs she hasnt quite hit the expected heights. Because of this she has now been dropped to a mark of 74 and enter class 5 company for the first time since her maiden win. Georgia Cox takes a further 5lbs off and rides brighton well (2/6, 3 places in the past 2 years). Haggas also doesnt send many here and is 2/6 at the track in handicaps in the past 2 years. Add to the fact that there is no one hotter in the country than the trainer with 10 wins and 17 places from his last 25 runners. The rain wont should be an issue either with her 3rd to the progressive Roll on Rory on soft ground being franked with the winner, 4th and 7th all winning since. 9/1 looks too big.

    Nick Mazur 04/09/16 9:44 PM Reply


    • Great analysis Nick and the market is in agreement it would seem! Certainly looks to have a decent chance of out-running those odds. GL. Hopefully one of us has found the winner.

      Josh 05/09/16 8:08 AM Reply


      • Cheers for that Nick, did it well.

        Josh 05/09/16 2:02 PM Reply


        • Thanks mate. Shame about the non-runners.

          BTW Don’t get too disheartened about the results mate. It will come around. I’ve had two long periods of bad results this year just need to keep plugging at it. I’ve said it before but following your write ups I feel considerably better equipped to tackle sprints than before. Case in point was yesterday (sorry didn’t have time to put it up here although feel slightly less guilty just put up a winner) but between you and GG pointed me to York= low draw+front/prominent runners+form on good/soft=Dark Defenders=BOOM

          Nick Mazur 05/09/16 2:13 PM Reply


          • Easy game sometimes haha- well done. Yep been a bias at York all year it would appear. Yep, I am not disheartened really – sprint handicap test zone going ok, and is promising while still plenty to learn. Big race sprint handicaps with trends etc been a bit crap but then again doesn’t take many winners at odds to eradicate deficit etc. And there is some promise on spotting unlucky horses, eye catchers etc. Stats/Angles has been a bit crap going from 0 to +24 , up and down and then down… I am best putting my analytical energy into the sprints + chasers long term, and posting an initial stats/angles short list I think. Takes time if you want to do the sprints justice etc.

            Emma Lavelle ensured I enjoyed Sunday, had a little bit on that one.

            Good to hear my ramblings have improved your approach to the sprints. Some interesting pointers for the Portland handicap that will help you this week also.

            – did put 1/2 point on the Haggas horse on your write up at 7s, so still 5.5/1 after R4. Not too shabby.

            Josh 05/09/16 2:23 PM Reply


  • Have a good break josh and I look forward to the nh campaign ,my flat season has been a bit of a disaster really but that’s the way it goes,onwards and upwards that’s what I say

    thomasson67 05/09/16 8:18 AM Reply


    • cheers, yep it will be nice to relax in a bit of sun for a few days. A quick recharge before the jumps actions starts to ramp up. Hopefully it brings a change of fortune. Onwards and upwards indeed.

      Josh 05/09/16 1:10 PM Reply


  • Symposium given a good ride I thought on a difficult track to ride I thought,trainers good run continues

    thomasson67 05/09/16 2:07 PM Reply


    • yep, very good ride, thought they were coming after her at one point but eitehr saved a bit and/or responded very well for a squeeze. Always had track position on them, tactically very astute. Won with a bit in hand I think, could go in again.

      Josh 05/09/16 2:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, a bit of topic but when it comes to bigger priced horses how does BFSP compare to Tote odds. Have you or anyone here done any research.

    Paul Cockerill 05/09/16 3:47 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul, well it is a racing related question so on topic to a point! In truth I have no idea- as yet I don’t bet BFSP or Tote very often at all. I know it is challenging when track side- you just don’t know. There are times I have gone with Tote only for price to be much shorter than on the rails and likewise taken a price with normal bookie only for price to be massive on the Tote. But, that is an aside.

      Maybe there is some work somewhere but I have yet to come across any. Maybe someone else on here will know some more. If you are on twitter that is the kind of question to fire at a few people who may have more of an idea.

      Josh 05/09/16 4:00 PM Reply


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