FREE DAILY POST: 02/09/16 (COMPLETE)

NEW: Saturday Trends… are up HERE>>>.

 

NEW REPORT…HERE>>> (if you missed it in emails or posted earlier)

 

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TIPS

None.

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Blimey, a winner on Wednesday at 5/1 and the three I couldn’t decide between at Haydock finished 1st (9/1), UP, and 3rd (28/1). Hopefully someone out there had one or both of them.

Let’s stick withe the shortlist approach again and as it happens I couldn’t decide anyway between this lot I don’t think…

Shortlist….

  • 2.20 Newc: Jebel Tara 16/1… (UP, 4th, 12/1) A Whillans has been a dab hand with stable newcomers in the last year – 2/8, 4 places..and 3/13,6 places in the last two years- so this one could be an interesting EW proposition. He is 1/4,1 places at Newcastle, albeit those stats not for the AW track. He is 1/5 on the AW surface here all runners to date. The horse… well he stands out on the ‘instant expert’ tab which is a positive, along with a couple of others. He is 5lb below his last winning mark and a few runs ago he came decent enough thirds a couple of times which suggested there may be some wins in the old legs, at a moderate level. His recent form isn’t much to shout home about but then again the ‘trainer change’ angle is a reason to ignore recent form, the idea being that a horse may spark into more life for a change of scenery. This one only ran 11 days ago for his old stable and I used to think a horse may need longer in new surroundings but I have left big priced winners in the past with a similar rest profile so I will deem it irrelevant. This one may be a bit of a stab but Whillans lands the odd decent price within this angle and is one to keep onside moving forward. A micro angle that should pay in time. Oh, and he is also ‘in form’ in the last 30 days.
  • 7.00 Kempton: Warm Words 7/2… (UP)Beckett is 9/46, 16 places with his first time out 2 year olds here. He also has one in the 6.00 at a bigger price- he may run well but that looks a hotter race on paper and given Charlie Appleby’s impressive record with second time starters, I thought I would leave that race. The market may guide. This one is related to others who won as 2 year olds and those that have raced once don’t look like they are here to win (subjective, famous last words) Stoute’s looks a danger and Cowell has one also, but he is 0/11,2 places at the track with first time out 2 year olds and, along with going a tad cold, that put me off. The market again may guide. 7/2 looks ok for this one. Trainer is 5/26, 9 places in last 14 days also. Decent enough.
  • 7.50 Muss: Windforpower – 15/2, 7/1… (UP, still running, awful) his one looks interesting here… trainer and jockey are 4/7, 5 places in handicaps at the track. The horse stands out on the ‘instant expert’ against all race conditions and is 3/5 at the track. He is a CD winner and came a decent second 9 days ago. All in all he looks rather solid to my eye with the usual luck in running needed here. He is a prominent racer and there is a bit of pace on. Clearly those with less exposed profiles are to be feared.
  • 8.30 Kemp: Kristjano – 5/1… (2nd, 9/4) Trainer/jockey are 12/37, 20 places when teaming up here in handicaps. There isn’t much more to add to that other than the fact his speed figure is massive compared to all of these and if that is a true reflection of his ability against this lot, in a race that should be truly run, he should be going close.

 

That is all for this shortlist. I will just leave it like this again for you to interpret/inspect/scrutinise how you see fit.

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MICRO SYSTEMS

J Fanshawe Kempton: 8.00 Lord George WON 5/2>7/4

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Haydock (12/1<)

3.20 – Ustinov- WON 8/1 (after-timing,having looked at him just before race, but was an eye-catcher 2 runs ago in a sprint test race, pulled LTO,first time hood does the job.) 

4.30 – Hit The Jackpot DNQ

5.00 – Hes No Saint UP

 

3.45 Ascot – Renfrew Street (any odds) 2nd

 

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

None. There are some big field juicy races to get stuck into,. I could use the going as an excuse (Ascot/Haydock expecting rain, so who knows what it will be) but I have other things I need to be cracking on with (blog/national hunt related) Not long until the 3m+ chases.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

An easy enough winner for the most in form horse of the three put up on Wednesday, 11/4?7/4. I hope some of you had a nibble albeit that may have been too short for some. A 13/2 third in the race also and the less said about the McCain flat runner the better. The market told that story…

Nothing catching the eye on Friday. Maybe I will wait for the jumpers.

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SYSTEMS TEST

A couple of possibles for the re jigged ‘one track trainers’ (that post is HERE>>)

2.35 Ascot – Classic Pursuit (16/1<) UP

2.45 Hayd – Moonlit Show (16/1<) WON 12/1 

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Good Luck

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • Hi everyone. Does anyone know of anywhere I could find a list of average race times for each distance on the flat? I can’t find anything anywhere and wondered if there actually was anything?

    Any help would be great

    Thanks

    Andy Hinks 01/09/16 7:52 PM Reply


    • I have a spreadsheet on google docs with all the Racing Post standards & course records if u like but average times ? ?

      Andy Silvers 02/09/16 7:09 AM Reply


  • Profiting from jockey championship duel

    With Crowley and De Sousa fighting out for champion jockey can be profitable if you take a selective approach I think.I started tracking Jim Crowley,i had 4 bets on friday on his combination with David Evans at Ffos Las resulting in 2 winners at 7/2 and 4/1.There was a very good example of this in the 7.40,Riding for Hugo Palmer he has a 30% strike Rate,Palmer in turn has a 40% strike rate with 3yo at the track,Ecureuil won with Crowley on board,was 8/1 at one stage,with the battle so close you can be sure that agents are scouring all over for live chances for the 2 and we can be confident that both jockys are putting everything in,I will be following Crowley in the next few weeks at tracks where he is in profit and with trainers that are in form and profitable

    gearoid180468 01/09/16 8:22 PM Reply


  • Newcastle sires Friday;
    635 Westward Ho (Fastnet Rock) 33/1
    18l 5/10 on debut at Thirsk
    No odds cap for me on Fastnet Rock progeny on Tapeta, especially in a maiden
    Paul

    blueboy199 01/09/16 9:01 PM Reply


    • 435 (you defo need to get an edit button Josh)

      blueboy199 01/09/16 9:04 PM Reply


      • went win only (£5 at 33/1, £2 matched at 80.0)…berk

        blueboy199 02/09/16 4:43 PM Reply


        • Always annoying when they place…but just be consistent, at those stakes I would go on the nose…i you pick winners in time and profit will be bigger…if you can personally handle losing runs etc and don’t need the comfort of a more regular return. Those sire stats appear to be pointing the way

          Josh 02/09/16 4:56 PM Reply


  • NH systems look tasty Josh

    Can’t wait for October, when hopefully we’ll ‘chunk it’ from the Evan Williams system and this Kerry Lee beauty, which I’ve been looking forward to for months: http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/01/07/trainer-in-focus-kerry-lee/

    aallen 01/09/16 10:10 PM Reply


    • Here’s hoping! It wont be for a lack of trying. Quietly confident we will have some fun with those.. NTD + Lavelle are I’m decent form at least. Ah yes,good old Kerry Lee, I had better dust that one off also,was on the list.

      Josh 01/09/16 10:13 PM Reply


  • I think the Emma Lavelle one will be very interesting and some of the criticism of her very unfair. Three/Four seasons back she was one of the “coming big things” and had a golden run with her then “novice handicappers” – Gullinbursti remains in my memory for some reason.

    Two things then happened, (a) she had a fairly serious illness and that set her back and (b) the yard was struck by a long and hard virus, it affected horses for the end of one season and the start of the next, it was I believe eventually traced back to spores from oil see rape in a nearby field.

    I suspect that the fact that the local farmer has no alternative but to plant that crop periodically, and the known bad impact it can have on horses, may be part of the reason for the yard moving.

    If she can get back her mojo in full health and the horses stay healthy she can certainly come again and lets hope so.

    Ian 02/09/16 7:41 AM Reply


    • Thanks for that info Ian….I didn’t realise it was that bad…poor girl. Let’s hope the yard move has helped her own health.
      Cheers.

      Tony Mc. 02/09/16 11:06 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Ian, yep fingers crossed for a decent year- I would like to think she may be having winners everywhere throughout the season. There has been some consistency over the summer and she has always done well with inexperienced/unexposed horses. That oil seed rape seems to the the culprit for many a sick yard from time to time.

      Josh 02/09/16 2:41 PM Reply


  • Afternoon all,

    Sorry its a little late but I was out last night and got today off.

    Firstly I agree with you Josh on Windforpower in the 19:50 at Musselburgh. I personally think he is best over 5f and fast ground and on straight tracks so that run LTO was even more eye-catching.

    I also like Acclaim in the 16:20 at Ascot. Has very creditably the past two runs (including a respectable run ina Grade 3 where there was bias to runners drawn low). Each time it looked like he needed further so they have stepped him up to a mile. Looks best produced late so with Spencer on board for the first they couldnt have picked a better man for the job and surely a big run must be respected.

    Moving on to Haydock, I thought the booking of Paul Hanagan on Rusty Rocket was eye-catching when he probably could have had his pick of several including the 2 Fahey ones. Horse is 2/5, 3 places over CD. Now 3lbs lower than his win in May which was in a class 3. Most of the pace appears to be low so hopefully he will get a nice tow into the race.

    Finally I have to have a bet on Hit The Jackpot in the race after. Back to his last winning mark and drops back into a class 3 for the first time since his win in April. O’Meara and Tudhope are very profitable to follow around here (8/33, 14 places +4- in hanidcpas in the past 2 years), not to mention that 4 of the yards last 9 runners have won. Horse is 3/7, 4 places in class 3. Has a solid draw here and should hopefully outrun his odds.

    nickmazur 02/09/16 1:08 PM Reply


    • Good luck Nick- yep I looked at Hit The Jackpot as he does have a class dropping/class 3 profile- i was put off my his price a bit, and will watch the market- and more by the fact that I would need to get a number of unexposed 3yo/4yos beaten in this – which, he may well do. But, just on the horses profile then 16s looks big.

      Josh 02/09/16 2:42 PM Reply


      • You are in fine form, another goes in! Who needs the jumps 🙂

        Josh 02/09/16 4:24 PM Reply


        • When Spencer is ridding like that he makes it look so easy.

          nickmazur 02/09/16 4:25 PM Reply


          • so classy at his best, gets them settled, judges pace so well (naturally gets it wrong at times,runs into trouble) but if he gets it right they usually finish like a train as he has ridden them to preserve energy until they really need it-(and that is his words roughly,from some C4 interview I remember watching months ago) (Moloney/Hughes a bit like that over jumps) Superb jockey for me.

            Josh 02/09/16 4:27 PM Reply


  • Moonlight Show, a winner 12/1 for OTT and C Fellowes. Thanks Josh.

    Chris 02/09/16 2:54 PM Reply


    • Yep, was nice to cheer that one home, had some beer money on each and that will pay for some beer this evening! Glad you had a nibble.

      Josh 02/09/16 2:56 PM Reply


      • Lovely winner £5 win on it nice drift there too

        daniel 02/09/16 3:05 PM Reply


  • A mistake got me a an 8/1 winner on Ustinov,had intended backing the Dascombe runner Gambit,only realised this morning and decided to leave it there on Bet365,was very fortuitous

    gearoid180468 02/09/16 4:41 PM Reply


    • You make your own luck Gerry, and we have all done that at one point or another! 🙂 Enjoy spending it!

      Josh 02/09/16 4:57 PM Reply


  • Hi all

    Not much action for me today just the one investment on

    5.35 Newcaste – New Abbey Angel

    Studying for Thirsk tomorrow as I’m at the meeting

    Some good stuff all round today

    Steve Wiseman 02/09/16 5:25 PM Reply


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