Free Daily Post: 30/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Well I had a pleasant Bank Holiday afternoon at the Fenland Country Fair on the outskirts of Cambridge. My enjoyment was only punctuated when I checked the sportinglife live results page at around 1.35 and 4.15. Disappointing. You have to reflect on your results. Well I do. It is the only way I can move on and learn for next time. You can share my pain or skip what follows if you wish…

I won’t go looking for excuses as there were not any to my eyes. Nothing to say about Just Isla, one of those. Solid on paper and he is getting well handicapped and does know how to win at his level – he will pop up at some point no doubt. Pair of Jacks was woeful. The horses he beat on his last start also finished out with the washing which makes me think that ‘summer form’ just wasn’t very good. Nothing was beating the Pipe horse today but even so he didn’t run very well. He made a mistake at the last when trying to creep into it and maybe that winded him/made him feel something. But, ultimately it didn’t cost him victory.  You know why I wasn’t keen on the Pipe horse at 7s- he was the real unknown quantity but there were a few too many areas I was unsure on- fitness,ability as a chaser,stamina. Some positive that he was on my shortlist of three but that is as good as it got.

I have to ask in what situation/mindset could I have backed him…Well Pipe’s record with horses returning after a 60 days+ is just fine and had demonstrated some ability in novice hurdles. He was in the ‘could be anything’ category as a chaser and you know the trainer would have schooled him extensively etc- and he had yet to prove he couldn’t stay. While his family indicated a middle distance pedigree there is some stamina there. I considered all of that and made the call that 7s wasn’t overly generous for me, at the time I looked. Clearly another wrong call and he even drifted out to 17/2. What didn’t I properly consider?… Well the fact that Pipe had spent 32k on him which I read pre race but didn’t ponder for too long and more importantly the fact that he was running him in this class two (a decent enough purse) on his first start for him. Big error. Why would he do that? Well, we have our answer. He was the only ‘could be anything’ horse in the race up against a lot of exposed types- bar the selection. Oh and Pipe was also 3/12,6 places with stable newcomers in the last year. I knew that before the race also. Yep, i don’t need telling.

Well done to Chris who appears to have devised a handy little system for these non winning chasers. That is two in two days so well done to him and all of you who backed him. And he is only a HRB  newbie, exciting times ahead for you Chris if that is your first proper stab at system building! 🙂

***

TIPS 

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

3.45 Epsom

Take A Note – 1 point win – 16/1 (general) >6/1 SP (20p R4) UP*

*well the market gave me hope and so did the first 2/3s of the race where he appeared to be travelling well enough behind the leaders. When asked there was nothing. Maybe he didn’t act on the track or more likely is just badly out of form. He was very well backed near the off and unsure why on the basis of how he ran.

This one takes a slight leap of faith but I couldn’t turn down 16s given the fact that he is well suited to these races conditions, many in this moderate enough race have some questions to answer, and the fact that he is doing a few thing differently. He drops into a class 4 handicap on turf for the first time since August 2014 and on that occasion he won easily over 7f at Sandown off 81. 4 starts ago on turf, at the back end of last year, he was rated OR90. He comes here off OR80 and is starting to be given a chance by the handicapper. George Baker now rides which also caught the eye. He has ridden the horse before in a maiden when he was an 18s shot,many years ago. He is 0/4, 2 places on the trainer’s handicappers here. The cheekpieces also replace the visor. Nothing too significant in that bar it is something different which may have a positive effect. It may not. The trainer is also ‘in form’- 2/9,4 places in the last 14 days. A repeat of a couple of runs from last season would put him close here. This season? Well he hasn’t done much at all really. It could be that he is just woefully out of form- or they have been trying to get his mark down. There haven’t been many signs of life in his three runs this season but maybe it takes him a bit longer to wind up these days. He has won before on the back of some dreadful runs, seemingly from nowhere. Having said that given some previous decent form at Kempton in similar conditions that last run is probably most concerning. It does look a moderate enough race and I suppose you could make a case for quieta  few. But, having said that, all have some sort of question whether it be turf form, trip, class, handicap make or a combination of the lot.

16s just felt like a punt worth taking for me and you can overlook a bit at that price- recent form being the concern here. We shall see if he can improve on recent runs. If he is on song he may well canter away with this. It is that or a case of getting those ‘out the back of the tv binoculars’ out again.

 

No more today. No shortlist either.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

3.10 Epsom – Spirit of Zeb UP

5.10 Ham – Heatongrad 2nd 12/1>6/1/ Western Presence UP

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

3.10 Epsom- Highly Sprung (7/1<) UP

3.25 Ham – Magical Lasso (any odds)

4.00 Ham – Forever A Lady (any odds)

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

6.45 Ripon

Excessable – 1 point win – 11/1 UP 10/1

Avon Breeze – 1 point win – 14/1 UP 20/1 *

*the market told the story for this one sadly. Excessable just didn’t run any sort of race. I don’t know if he got upset before the race or what but he never traveled, having drifted out a bit. Avon Breeze went on a longer walk in the market and didn’t do too much really.

 

Oh my this is a puzzle and a half but after staring at it for a good amount of time I decided to go with these horses who looked a shade on the big side to me. Since posting Excessable’s price has come in which is some sort of positive I hope…

Excessable… well I have gone for one prominent racer drawn near the stands rail, where the stalls will be and one drawn low who normally comes from further back. Excessable is just young, still unexposed and in form. He won over CD two starts ago and ran ok at York LTO in a hot enough race. While he didn’t look the winner before getting no sort of run he was eased once his chance had gone and just coasted home in his own time. I am hoping they ride him forward here and he can be in the box seat for the duration of the race. I thought at 11s he looked interesting given that his profile is different from many in here.

Avon Breeze – is a bit more of a stab but a few things caught my eye. Nathan Evans has been booked to ride which may or may not be significant but I found it of some interest and with his claim she is back below her winning mark over 6f here earlier in the season. She has some very good runs to her name and if she repeated a few of them she would be in the mix here. Her last win was in cheekpieces and they return for the first time since and she also gets the hood. So, a couple of changes there from recent runs. Looking through her form I also found it interesting that on a couple occasions after lengthy absences she has ran well on the next start (won + neck 2nd). She had 90 days off before her last start and didn’t do too much. Maybe that will put her right for this. The draw is a concern as all the action may happen down the nearside. Stanghow is a front runner drawn in 5 and it may depend on what he does. I assume he would head to the far side and that may help those over there- or they will all try and get over to the near side with many being left in the middle of the track. A bit of an unknown. I suspect the latter but we shall see. Either way Nathan may ride her more aggressively if breaking on terms and she has the ability to take this. She is arguably better over 6f- that can be said about a few in here- but has decent enough form at 5f and hopefully they go quite hard up top.

Of the rest…well a case can be made for plenty. Silvanus was tipped LTO when getting no run combined with a questionable effort from the saddle. He is clearly in good form and while 11 he could take this. But, he was short enough for me when looking. Money has come. He may not be far away. Pipers Note- looks better over 6f for me and that was enough to put me off at 6s. But, he has a touch of class and does very well when dropping into this grade. The draw may be a problem for him though as well. He will come hard and late I imagine. Shipyard has looked better over 6f and isn’t doing much differently here from previous runs. He is running well but his mark isn’t moving. He is consistent and that may be enough for him to be in the mix. Imtiyaaz has a chance but 5s seemed short enough for me in this race. This looks like an afterthought but the trainer is in fine form and he is very well drawn. He may try and make all against the rail. Not a shock winner but not a 5/1 shot I am eager to back. (probably bolt up now!) The race feels too open to be taking a ‘short’ price for me. Stanghow has a class question but 18s does look on the large side. He should try and lead also but again may have a tricky draw. This is deeper than the last race and he needs to progress again. Money is coming for Ritas Boy which is interesting. He has a few questions for me in these conditions and doesn’t win very often. But he is only 4. Adams Ale has a class question now also- 0/12,6 p in C3. Maybe he will drop in at some point and he has been running ok. I wasn’t convinced albeit he has a massive speed figure in here which did catch the eye. He needs to step up on recent runs and I don’t know why he would. Lexington Place will need his customary luck and so far has failed to do it in races with a decent field size. The other three have questions now also.

So,an open race, and one where I wan’t a decent price. Hopefully these two can out-run their odds and one of them can get the job done.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

None today.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

17 Comments

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  • I also had reservations about the trip for Father Edward Josh especially on first run, but they were thankfully unfounded. Pipes alone this year are so far 12/5, + 37.5pts.
    So here are the details;

    HCP Chases 2m7.5f – 4m4f
    16/1 or less
    Chase wins = 0
    Not the months of Jan, Jun & Jul.
    Trainers: D. Dennis, W. Greatrex, M. Keighley, A. King, J. J. O’Neill, D. Pipe, Lucinda Russell, J. Scott, O. Sherwood, D. Skelton & N. Twiston-Davies.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 5 months ago Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    Spirits slightly boosted by a nice score on my previous gabling hobby, poker which more than makes up for my recent run on the nags. (although with your self-procrastination I am not sure I would recommend for you mate)

    Maybe I am wrong but Piper’s Note looked like a cracking bet. 4/8, 5 places at Ripon, 4/5, 5 places in Class 3 handicaps, 1/2 5f handicaps, 2/4 when returning within 16 to 30 days. Trainer had 2 winners from 2 runners yesterday after 1/62 the previous 3 months and his last 3 runners at Ripon have all placed (obviously that’s also a plus for Avon Breeze). He hasn’t ran much over 5f this season but certainly had some creditable runs last year including in listed company. I think it looks like the main pace will come on the low side with Stangow taking them along and hopefully he will ridden prominently behind him. To coin your phrase looks like a case of all the stars aligning here.

    The other one I liked although sadly price gone was Artic Feeling in the 15:10 at Epsom. Another one dropping down in class. With the jockey claim he is technically running off 80 having won off effective 89 earlier this season and that was the 1st time he has ever won off a long break. He is 2/3 in Class 3 handicaps the past 2 years. His only other run in a class 3 came in a very hot race at York (winner has won 2 since including a listed race, 3rd has consistently ran well, 4th ran very well in a C2 from a horrible draw). Likes it round here and is 2/4 over CD. Ground is a minor concern since he would prefer it softer but he hasn’t ran badly on it. Barring the pick and Goring most of the other horses like to get on with so I can see the pace collapsing and hopefully he will be there to pick up the pieces.

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 5 months ago Reply


    • Morning Nick,
      Top work as ever. To clarify…as in you wouldn’t recommend poker for me? I do like a good game of TH – couldn’t hack online- but only played at a very amateur university level. Always good fun though. I think I need to improve my maths brain in general, esp with odds/tissues on the horses etc, and certainly before I ever ventured back to the cards. A good game for teaching patience though!

      I feel like I have been making the wrong calls from the final shortlists for ever but hopefully that will change soon! A tortured mind.

      The horses… I ran out of time to look at the 3.10 and haven’t had much of a glance. Good luck with AF.

      Yep Pipers Note looks to have a solid chance- a few too many niggles for me to be overly enthusiastic at 6s – the stalls are nearside and I think that will mean the low numbers will be some way from the rail? or in any case if they decide to go over they will be giving up some ground. If they do split I think I would just fancy the nearside. If they don’t those drawn low will need even more luck. His wins over 5f have been on stiffer tracks and I wasn’t convinced there would be a total pace burn up. But, my thinking along those lines was very wrong for Ocean Sheridan so I would probably ignore that!

      He won’t be far away and will keep at it. His class at this level may well be enough and if he were drawn higher I would be happier. We shall see. I was happy to leave at 6s but will be cheering him on for you if mine don’t deliver. GL

      Josh 5 months ago Reply


      • It was only a jest mate. I came 3rd for £8k but 1st paid £17k so given how annoyed you are with yourself when you get a 2pt horse race wrong I cant fathom what you would be like if you lost out on that sort of money when making a wrong decision so close to the end of a tourney.

        Nick Mazur 5 months ago Reply


        • Ah yes, with you haha. My ability to procrastinate in game isn’t too useful either! Yep, that would be many hours of staring into the abyss, but 8k isn’t too shabby a consolation. I think Channing discussed poker on that latest final furlong podcast and said something along the lines of it is easier to take if you are confident you made the right call, mathematically- the odds being correct etc etc and it was simply bad luck.

          Was that an online tournament? Sounds like a good weekend in any case. I am sure you will be tempted back a bit more now

          Josh 5 months ago Reply


          • It was live in Aspers in Stratford inside Westfield (ie basically near the Olympic stadium). Yeah Neil is a friend and is the reason I got into horse racing. I was playing on his online poker site (his previous venture Black Belt Poker before Betting Emporium) and he would post his Cheltenham tips every year. First bet I remember winning was £50 on First Lieutenant for the Neptune in 2011 which was horrible staking management but got me hooked. I keep meaning to buy him a drink or ten but haven’t seen him for a few years since his last live tournament he organised (and had the cheek to win himself LOL).

            The problem with poker is the time it takes since playing it online you have to stay up quite late if you do well in a decent sized tournament. Unlike horse racing which even if you’re looking at the cards yourself wont take you 7 hours. So doesn’t quite fit with my lifestyle. I am actually playing this weekend as well but that’s just a coincidence since I happen to have Monday off.

            Nick Mazur 5 months ago Reply


        • I played Pro for a time on the English circuit etc. Ventured to Spain and Ireland as well. I found it too much of a grind and you had to be successful to cover your travelling and hotel costs. Never did much good in tournaments but made some money playing cash. I play casually in London and the South East now when I get time.

          Anyway..what about Apricot Sky in the 6.45 at Ripon?

          martin colwell 5 months ago Reply


          • What about him? You had a go?

            Looks like he has a class ceiling to me- 0/7,0 places C3 turf handicaps, 0/8,0 places Class 4 6k+ , all wins Class 4 <6k. Also looks a bit of a money horse...0/16, 2 places over 8/1. Cue him now streaking away and winning by a cosy few lengths. But, I can't have him.

            Josh 5 months ago Reply


    • You were spot on Nick, well done. Did that well- surprised how easy he got into a good position but his class told there. Glad you didn’t ignore the obvious.

      Josh 5 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh / all

    Sorry for this late post but back in late today

    After a good “test” with the Yarmouth stallions on Sunday thought I would try the same process at Ripon this evening. So we have Ripon, Good & Gd /Fm, 2016 only, breaking it down to certain sires we have the following:

    5F – 22 bets, 8 winners 36.36% SR 17 places 77.29%SR
    6F – 73 bets, 21 winners 28.77% SR, 47 places, 64.38% SR
    1m 2F – 37 bets 14 winners 37.84% SR, 27 places 72.97% SR
    2m – 11 bets, 3 winners, 27.27 % SR, 8 places 72.73% SR

    I have included sires that may not have won their races but have at least a 50% SR to place so any juicy odds may be worth backing E/W and hence the high place SR. I have also broke the criteria down by draw so we can see if there is any bias and may help in selection, The qualifiers for this evening are as follows : (I do apologise I have missed the 5.15 & 5.45 but will list the qualifiers anyway)

    5.15 Colonel Frank 2.5 stall (1) 8 qualifiers 3 winners, 4 places – WON
    5.15 Dawoodi 2.5 stall (4) 3 qualifiers, 0 winners, 2 places – 2nd
    5.15 Four Wishes 17.00 stall (7) 4 qualifiers, 1 winner, 3 places – 8th
    5.15 Partner in Pink 15.00 stall (8) 5 qualifiers, 1 winner, 2 places – 4th

    5.45 Bithynia 7.0 stall (9) 1 qualifier, 0 winners, 1 place – 5th
    5.45 Monte Cinq 15.0 stall (4) 4 qualifiers, 4 winners, 4 places – 9th
    5.45 My Cherry Blossom 15.0 stall (5) 3 qualifiers, 1 winner, 2 places – 6th

    6.45 Apricot Sky 21.0 stall (6) 1 qualifier, 1 winner, 1 place
    6.45 Excessable 8.50 stall (9) 1 qualifier, 0 winner, 1place
    6.45 Lexington Place 13.0 stall (10) 1 qualifier, 0 winner, 0 place

    7.15 Tanaasub 3.0 stall (7) 4 qualifiers, 1 winner, 3 places

    Good Luck All

    Steve Wiseman 5 months ago Reply


    • Hi Steve, I was in late too, and running my draw %’s over the picks…it came out like so. Ripon.
      5.15….Colonel Frank was top rated in a group of three, but quite an even distribution all within a few points of each other.

      5.45. Blythnia and Monte Cinq…down at 11%…with My Cherry Blossom down further at 6%.
      There were 5 ahead in draw advantage…including the first 3 home…. They were comprehensively ahead.

      6.45. Apricot Sky was way clear in the draw %’s, Lexington Sky was at 0% and Excessable’s stall was running at 11%. Pipers Note was at 12%…but had a trainer red hot who blew the field apart. There were 4 ahead of the winner.

      7.15 Tannasaub’s race was pretty even,

      Tony Mc. 5 months ago Reply


  • I promise I don’t have a time machine or foresight but that just about went as expected

    Nick Mazur 5 months ago Reply


    • you certainly did- I didn’t think Stanghow or him would find it that easy to get across- surprised nothing high tried to make use of their draw. Should think you were counting your money quiet early there!

      Josh 5 months ago Reply


  • Just been to the bookies to collect my double on a lucky 15…….they paid me for a treble!
    Walked out with a smile!

    Max 5 months ago Reply


    • Nice work- they will have your photo up behind the counter now haha. Well done.

      Josh 5 months ago Reply


  • Yes well done Nick you certainly made a good case for him and pointing out Richard Whitaker too did you have anything on Love Island?

    Steve Wiseman 5 months ago Reply


    • Thanks Steve. I would have tipped it if there were 8 runners but given I had to go win only I left it since it looked like a hot race but luckily one of my tipsters tipped it up so was on.

      nickmazur 5 months ago Reply


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