Free Daily Post: 26/08/16 (COMPLETE)

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Today, at various points, I have been listening to the latest Final Furlong Podcast. I have’t listened to that many but their latest one is a belter for me. A wide ranging discussion on betting that I found fascinating. You can catch it on AtTheRaces HERE>>>

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TIPS 

None

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total… +6.5 points)

7.00 Newcastle- Flinty Fell – 1 point win – 7/1…

This one looks solid enough on the stats as below and the race has a fairly open feel about it. The market may well guide over time but in a race where a few have questions now this one does have a different profile. The trainer’s have been going ok- I would like a bit better form for confidence but there are enough positives on the stats at least. It may be she wants further but I think 7s allows a stab.

I will leave the rest. Three seconds yesterday but the decision making was just about correct in deciding to dodge them all. Only just on a couple of occasions. Warm Love- well the ground is an unknown and could be hard work for your first start- two above him at much shorter odds and the market suggests they could be slogging it out. Harry Beau- is weak in the market at the moment and has gone out to 10s- that doesn’t fill me with confidence and I want a bit more to go in with him. Toola Boola just a tad on the short side for me personally. We shall see how they all go.

My shortlist…

  • 2.20 Thirsk: Warm Love 6/1 – O’Meara is 5/24,9 places with first time out 2 year olds in the last year, 1/5, 2 places at this track in last 5 years. And, that is all we have to go on. Breeding looks ok? And arguably while everything else has experience in here many look fairly modest, a few running for a nursery mark maybe. Fav is there to be shot at I think. Market may well guide. Wouldn’t be shocked if this one gets piled into really. Trainer isn’t in the best of form which is a bit off-putting. 6s feeling fair at the moment. Normally I would want something else to go on,esp at around this price- like red hot trainer form. Unsure if we are in ‘guessing game’ territory in terms of the ground again.
  • 2.10 Ffos Las – Harry Beau 8/1 – 13/2 (only 2 priced up) – Hannon is 2/3,2 places with his first time out 2 year olds here- small numbers but they look interesting. He is 5/22,6 places with all runners here. This is his only runner on the day here. Maybe significant, maybe not. Market may well guide. Again not much else to go on which makes me uncomfortable. Bar the fav I am not sure if too many of the others are here to run well, EW bet to nothing maybe?
  • 7.00 Newcastle- Flinty Fell 6/1 (one bookie at moment) Looks good on the stats… trainer 9/35,18p with newcomers from other yards last year,1/6 2 places at the track. 10/52,14 places with 1st time handicap runners last two years, 31/150,50 places those returning after break of 60 days+. Fitness can be taken on trust- if he wants him fit, he will be. 3/15,4 places in last year at track. With Gibbons riding in handicaps – 5/22,9 places. His horses are going ok. Race lacks pace a bit- Burke horse could get another easy lead. A few 3 year olds in here, doesn’t look a great race. But, maybe stats, collectively, are enough at that price…
  • 6.00 Newcastle – Toola Boola – 5/1 – O Keefe is 3/10,4 places with handicap debutants in last year. (in that code,this one has run in handicaps over jumps)He is 2/6,3 places with Lee at Newcastle (none on AW as yet) He is 13/76,33 places in all handicaps with Lee up top, 6/21,12 places in C5 handicaps. Trainer is also ‘in form’ the only one in the race- 1/7,4 places last two weeks. He is 0/11,3 places on the AW here so far. There is plenty of stamina in the blood so the step back up should suit. Looks interesting enough albeit not sure if 5s is overly generous. Only one bookie priced up so far. The others look to have a few questions.

 

Do as you please with that information! Bar the stats, the rest of the comments are my own subjective views that you may disagree with etc.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

4.05 Thirsk: El Viento UP / Khelman UP

4.50 Newc: Springwood WON 7/1 

5.20 Ham: Gabridan  UP

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

4.05 Thirsk- Magic City (28/1<) DNQ

4.55 Newm- Kiltara (12/1<) UP

5.05 FFos Las – Air of York  DNQ / Sir Billy Wright UP (both 16/1< guide)

5.15 Thirsk- Space War (28/1<) UP

6.25 Ham- Amy Blair (any odds) Oh my. WON 50/1 SP

6.55 Ham – Forever A Lady (any odds)

 

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

4.05 Thirsk

Handsome Dude- 1.5 points win – 16/1 (BF/PP/Betf) 14/1 | 12/1 (general) UP

Intense Style – 1.5 points win– 12/1 (Betfred/BV/PP/others) 11/1| 10/1 (general) UP

Fendale – 1 point win – 7/1 | 13/2 (general,7s in a few places) NR (assume ground related- so,maybe 1 point saved- trainer clearly has doubts)

(UPDATE: can’t tip him now really but I may reinvest half point in Ocean Sheridan to replace my Fendale wager- suspect Mulrennan may well now switch also? Did think he may want further/strongly run 6f and/or stiff 6f but he may not be far away at 9s. Also means not just left with two drawn in same place. We shall see) WON 

 

Well this is a cracker and while the head is a bit sore from looking at it I think these three should give us a good run for our money. My staking needs work in these races, and probably in general, but I wanted these three onside and I didn’t want to bet more than 4 points in this race. Fendale also has a ground question – an unknown- hence the smaller staking than the other two…

Handsome Dude- well 16s seems rather big for this one. There were clear signs last time, in a decent race, that he was coming to himself and that run can be marked up. He came under pressure fairly early but stuck to his task while being carried into the centre of the course- not where you want to be. If he had stayed in a straight line he would have been closer. He has decent form on Soft and ties in with Intense Style on that Doncaster run a  few starts ago. He is 5lb lower than that run. He also has some decent course form to his name- a decent second earlier in the season in a big field class 3 race. Gibbons is on and there is plenty to like for me at the price. This is only his 19th start and this 4 year old may have more to come at some point also as a sprinter. I will get onto pace in a moment which is also a tick I think but the draw is fine also. A lot of winners come from the middle stalls over this straight track and it may be the place to be. High against the rail doesn’t do as well as you may think but it also seems to change depending on the ground. I wouldn’t be put off by any horse on draw alone here today.

Intense Style- well he just hasn’t done much wrong and while I think there may be others better treated, again as a 4 year old sprinter he may have a bit more to come at some point. These are his conditions and I think you can ignore the last run based on the going. He relishes soft ground. The two runs before that last one, in better races than this, give plenty of hope. He was close to Hoof It on both those occasions which is decent enough form. He usually finds plenty for pressure on this ground and a repeat of those two runs should put him right there in this field. He was also on my stats longlist- trainer jockey are 2/9,3 places here in handicaps which is another positive. He should run his race from up the middle also. These two to dominate at the death, maybe…

Fendale- well I think 7s is decent enough here given his form. I backed him at Ponte earlier in the season where he was a bit poor but he was much better LTO and maybe that was a sign he is about to strike. He ‘won’ his side at Ripon on a day where both the sprints were dominated by the nearside. In part that was due to pace but it suggests the ground may have been slightly quicker also. He travelled well on the far side that day and found plenty for pressure. This is only his 14th career start and is another 4 year old who should show more at some point. The ground is the question – it is an unknown really. You can’t tell from his few runs on it whether he handles it or not really. He stayed on at Donny in the race those two above contested. He stayed on from the back, rather than going backwards, to suggest it may be ok. I simply don’t know. His sire’s offspring are better on firm but he has had plenty of soft ground winners. 7s was worth a chance given how he ran LTO for me.

PACE…is interesting… with Highland Acclaim now out there isn’t really any and I wouldn’t want to be on anything that likes to come from behind here. The three above all race mid division at worst- usually- but importantly have all raced prominently at some stage or indeed led in the odd race. If the jockeys have their brains switched on there should be no excuse. They should all be up there in the van from the off for me. It may transpire there is a ground bias but I can’t predict it at this moment in time. Maybe up the rail will be a golden highway today but that is the chance you take.

Of the rest…

Well, clearly my pins may not have landed on the winner here. Eccleston is rather short at 4s in a race like this. He can be held up which may spell trouble but Tudhope will be aware of the pace problem and I suspect will get him up there. Those above have better recent form in better races for me and his price is enough. He did win this race last year off the same mark so clearly I won’t fall of my seat if he wins. The trainer is quiet again at the moment and that last run was a bit odd. Escalating looks interesting and conditions look ideal for him He needs to progress again and is entitled to. Again on paper the selections have better form but he is entitled to show more at some point, maybe today. The trainer’s horses have done well here in the last year. Lucky Beggar is interesting but is a tricky bugger to win with . His new trainer will no doubt get a win out of him but two stats put me off. In the last two years DC is 0/14,1 place with stable newcomers and 0/49,5 places with those returning after 60+ days. Ocean Sheridan is interesting but the jockey booking was odd (Beaseley must have had choice) and he is only running ok. A horse without a trip maybe. Again, the others have better form/profiles on paper for me in this race. He may not be far away. Magical Effect is also open to improvement but needs to after that maiden win. This big field will be a new experience and it is a hot race. He could go close but I prefer a battle hardened profile for these tests really.

The rest look badly out or form and/or need a lot to go right, plus a few have ging questions If one of them wins I wasn’t destined to be a winner today. There are a few hold up types that usually need a strong pace to be seen to their best – My Name Is Rio and Mushariff chief among them. I don’t think they will get that here but I could be wrong.

So, we shall see. These three should give us a run for our money in theory and it would be nice if one of them went in, with obvious preference for the bigger priced ones.

Good Luck, we will need plenty.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

None. Plenty going on today without anymore I think.

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Post complete.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

31 Comments

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  • Looks like a cracking Thirsk card tomorrow. The 16:05 looks fun to try and unravel!

    Nick Mazur 6 months ago Reply


    • yep, haven’t checked weather as yet- doesn’t it just. I will have to have a go, clearly. May need the aspirin ready though!

      Josh 6 months ago Reply


      • I decided to stay clear in the end.

        Nick Mazur 6 months ago Reply


        • That is probably very wise but I couldn’t let it go once i got stuck in. It does look rather puzzling.

          Josh 6 months ago Reply


          • Yeah Fendale is interesting but I left it due to the ground at the price. Hopefully I was wrong and you are right. Interesting (although hopefully not for today) that Griffiths has picked up Lucky Beggar although his record with new recruits isn’t great neither is with Curtis on board. Certainly one to keep a look out for during the autumn though.

            Nick Mazur 6 months ago Reply


          • And just as I say that out goes Fendale

            Nick Mazur 6 months ago Reply


  • A few weeks back I was telling the gf i was backing s couple of J P Shanahans runners at Hamilton,oh she said he’s a friend of mine,i will ask him to give a tip,anyway the upshot is he told her to have a bet on Carbon Dating in 7.25 at Hamilton,he reckons it will be better price tomorrow than the 6/1 he quoted,its a very competive handicap and he is taking hike in class and distance,just thought I would pass it on for what its worth

    gerry 6 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Gerry- well he could have any amount to come still, esp now he has his head in front. They ran him in the Derby last year! He was highly tried before this season. Interesting. Looks an open race- plenty in form- but 6s may be ok. Doubt he will be far away- trainer clearly thinks he should run his race. Good stuff, thanks.

      Josh 6 months ago Reply


  • Hi All

    A couple of weeks ago we had a test run of selections for the new tapeta surface at Newcastle with excellent results so just to recap and an amendment to the odds cap, if we look at races run over 5f to 1m 4 1/2f, Odds up to 20/1, Using these stallions only Cape Cross (IRE) Dutch Art, Fast Company (IRE),Fastnet Rock (AUS), Pivotal, Poets Voice, Power, Rio De La Plata (USA), Sea The Stars (IRE), Street Cry (IRE), Teofilo (IRE) we have the following set of figures

    53 bets, 26 winners, 49.06% SR, 37 places 69.81% SR +124.58 BF SP

    Using this criteria there are several selections tomorrow as follows:

    4.50 Servo – 9.0
    5.25 Cape Crystal – 3.5
    6.00 Almutamarred – 7.0 & Memory Cloth 9.0
    6.30 Visitant – 11.0
    7.35 Depth Charge – 7.0

    My new best friend Depth Charge runs again and a repeat performance will be very welcome 🙂

    Good Luck All

    Steve Wiseman 6 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Steve,
      and as pointed out to me on another forum, it’s Memory Cloth’s first run on Tapeta with his previous Wolverhampton run being before the switch from Polytrack.

      Paul 6 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Steve….marrying them as I speak against my draw stats…[limited I know]. Interesting.
      Thanks again.

      Tony Mc. 6 months ago Reply


  • Newc. 4:15 – Sugar Town, not a great price but Adam McNamara was an eye catching booking on Monday for this one.

    broadsword 6 months ago Reply


  • Handsome Dude 16/1 stands out to me on initial inspection of the 4.05

    Drawn near the pace, hcap mark, course, going all fine and tends to turn up in the cavalry charges

    aallen 6 months ago Reply


    • Think you have got that right Aallen and I have taken the 16/1. Dropping in the weights and down in class the ground doesn’t look as if it will be a problem either. Trainer/Jockey/Class stats are pretty good also. I was at this meeting last year to back Eccleston which duely won and he is back on the same mark but not so sure this time. Another one at Hamilton tonight is Haymarket 18.25 which I have been following over a cliff and although not well drawn he may get an easy here. Decent priced EW double.

      fingers 6 months ago Reply


    • Yep, totally agree. 16s/14s seems ridiculous to me and ticks plenty of boxes. Hopefully Gibbons rides him forward and he should go close I think, granted normal luck (ground/track bias an unknown but up the middle/on the outside wing of the rail group is usually no problem) GL

      Josh 6 months ago Reply


      • Haymarket a non…

        fingers 6 months ago Reply


      • Good stuff. Btw, if you see a user called Aallen, it’s Ali who you may be more familiar with! Probably displayed as Aallen because that’s my username!

        Funny that – I have the exact same shortlist of 3 as you! Easy (at least easier) when the going’s soft eh?

        Ali 6 months ago Reply


        • haha – i did winder! Yep – well it is much ‘easier’ when it is an extreme- did hear someone comment somewhere that form probably holds up more when good to firm/better horses do better more often. Not sure if that is the case but I am much happier when it is proper soft/heavy!

          Josh 6 months ago Reply


        • Sorry Ali…

          fingers 6 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh, I’m sorry I couldn’t reply to you last night as I was out at a function.

    There is no mystery to my rating of draw stats…..I calculate the new draw averages each night when racing finishes.
    Stall percentages take into account each distance separately.
    They are calculated over the last exact year, that way they don’t include old course variances.
    The reason for that is courses DO change in character over the years. I could write a treatise on those that have. You only need a new Grounds keeper or drainage change to alter a draw which is not picked up til it is to late, or indeed weather.
    [Example]…Some may think it flippant….and I’m only talking of my own observations.
    By training I am an Archaeologist….and something struck me many years ago. Ribchester is a Roman fort close to Preston. in 2 millennia the river Ribble has moved South by approx. three quarters of a mile. Now I know that is an extreme example…but any turf course with any incline [especially towards the finish] can, without being noticed in one rainy year move 12 inches of undersoil downhill. Now that does alter physical movement of any horse across it’s surface…..and yet it’s not picked up, but eventually the draw does which is why a shorter history is needed.
    It even has the capacity to alter the successful Sires at that course.
    Racing Post, Flatstats and others calculate 3 years…I think their wrong. personally had I the expertise I would calculate back 1 to 3 months, to back check my one year on a rolling basis.
    I use the draw stats in two ways. A. to use it as a tool against my own ratings
    Ettienne Gerrard yesterday was a prime example to find a potential winner. But just as important as an aid to finding winners, is to use it to NOT back a fancied horse no matter how well it’s fancied. It saves me stake money in that way. Yes I miss the odd winner, but I also avoid an awful lot of fancied [but no chance] horses doomed to lose.

    This is only a personal method and opinion of my own and would not have propounded it only that you asked me Josh.
    As a personal addendum….I often comment on helpful stats put up by Steve Wiseman and others, even if they lose…because they do help to put fresh eyes on my thinking. One that has sprung up, is Steve’s mention of Sires. I’m sure if researched properly and allied with the draw stats…it would turn up some interesting selections.

    Sorry about the long windedness of this reply…It’s short actually…lol.

    Good luck to all, whichever method you use….

    Tony Mc. 6 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Tony – I like a good essay! 🙂
      Yep just helps me understand the stats- some of the samples must be small for certain distances over 1 year? And with field size issues as well. I find it a tricky area but always a good guide.

      Josh 6 months ago Reply


      • lol…very true Josh…I was just doing a cover all… a précis of it.
        I lay it against my ratings which are an integral part of the whole.

        I take your point on not slavishly following the draw. if Dennis the 3 legged donkey has the best draw…He will still lose., but if a high rated, or stat picked up selection has the clear rated draw then the balance is tipped a bit more in ones favour.

        Tony Mc. 6 months ago Reply


        • Brings me on nicely to my EW fancy Musharriff, cracking run last time behind seasonal 6 time winner Seamster (won since) giving him a stone & being youngest by far of first five home from poor draw (better today), makes him cdg3 today with better draw & jockey 1st time with decent course stats, 16/s after beaten favourite last time too seems fair.

          & ‘er Racing Post Weekender do a thing called TopDraw & only use all finishing positions from last 20 races over sprint distances – the only problem there is that they don’t cover every meet, did yesterday but not today may have to get Daily RP?

          Andy Silvers 6 months ago Reply


          • Hi Andy, I’m just happy with the familiar….stall 17 & 18 are 0% at the moment…..I hope it alters for you today.
            The actual top draw stall is Blaine followed by Ecclestone, although in truth there only at 16% and 13%…..Fendale st 4 had it been running would have been top with 17%.
            BOL though.

            Tony Mc. 6 months ago Reply


  • Deliberated the 16:05 and decided I couldnt leave My Name is Rio unbacked here and have had 0.5pt e/w. I do think the Scottish Stewards Cup is the strongest piece of form on offer here and its probably between him and Intense Style but given the fact that he would have been disadvantged by the draw in that race and both historically and recently high numbers have been favoured over this distance at Thirsk so he is better drawn today. Plus looking back through his races he has raced prominantly in big field several times so I dont think he needs to be held back. Finally he tops the HRB ratings. That and the fact that Beasley comes here for just the one ride before heading for the 6PM at Newcastle which considering its an hour and a half drive he is going to have to cut it quite close. (not to mention its one of your past tips Josh so bound to win sooner or later)

    nickmazur 6 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Excellent winner for the TTP…. interestingly I believe the same duo Shirley Teasdale / Keith Dalgleish had another rag yesterday Argaki at Musselburgh 40/1 sent clear from the start and just touched off late on….Seems like an identical ploy with Amy Blair only this time they collect at 50/1 brilliant!

    Steve Wiseman 6 months ago Reply


    • LOL….what a winner…..No I wasn’t on but what a double Visitant and LP would have been Steve….A good day. Did you look at Lady perignon…

      Tony Mc. 6 months ago Reply


      • Hi Tony

        Ah I didn’t have anything on Lady Perignon was working up in Scotland again today was hoping you did?looking at the overall results for your strategy it does throw up lots of big price winners hence the excellent overall profits…..Visitant could have been backed at 70.0 earlier today but then i guess it would not be in the criteria so was happy to be on at 16.5

        Steve Wiseman 6 months ago Reply


      • Hi Steve, Yes I’ve backed since yesterday…LP was the second bet….I did your Visitant too….great shout Steve…. I only started out with low stakes…but still happy.
        Thanks again.

        Tony Mc. 6 months ago Reply


        • Great stuff Tony glad you were on 🙂

          Steve Wiseman 6 months ago Reply


  • Unlucky with Flinty Josh travelled the best probably just got there a bit too soon

    Steve Wiseman 6 months ago Reply


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