FREE DAILY POST: 24/08/16 (COMPLETE)

 

‘NEW’ : Having been prompted by a comment from Norman I have pulled together all of my old HorseRaceBase videos into one place. These can be view HERE>>> or just head to the Free Reports and Systems Tab. If you go onto page two of that tab you will also find an old ‘trainer in focus’ piece for Kerry Lee, which will have more significane in the coming weeks. Many of you may have seen that when first published but some may not have.

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A good couple of days for your shrewdies in the comments…Tom picked out an 12/1 winner on Monday (some of you got 20s I think) and Leon picked out a 7/1 winner at Southwell on Tuesday. Both had sound reasoning and both did it well. Top work chaps.Apols if I have missed any others!

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TIPS 

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

None.

(Holy Cross, a losing tip in this bit LTO, goes again in the 5.20 Stratford. This trip is halfway between the last two – outpaced at the shorter and possibly ran out of stamina last time! It may do the trick, or the horse is just a weak finisher. Interesting how he gets on) 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

1.40 Ling: Vatican Hill- UP 5/2

3.00 Muss: One Boy – 3rd 15/2

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

3.00 Muss- One Boy (any odds) 3rd 5/2

3.20 Catt- Baby Bellerina (16/1<) UP 17/2

4.00 Muss- Hidden Treasure (any odds)

4.20 Catt – Nietzsche

 

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

(0/2, 1 place… +0.9 points on day)

4.55 Catt

Cruise Tothelimit – 12/1 – 1 point EW (bet365) (only price up so far, seems massive to my faltering eyes) 3rd 6/1 SP * (+1.4 points race) (12 was around this morning in a few places for a while also)

*hmmm. That went from excitement having seen his price halve, to dread as he was bustled along for most of the race to relief that he clung on for a place- thankfully the jockey rode him all the way to the line. The winner is holding his form superbly well and has won easily again here really. Him and Innocently may have ran on the better ground it would seem but I won’t say that made the difference to our chance. Ultimately he was a shade disappointing. I doubt he will be 12s next time as a moderate handicap looks within reach now. 

12/1 seems a ridiculous price for this one all things considered. If this one doesn’t run well it will be rather deflating to be honest as everything looks set for an almighty run here and I had to have a go. Let me try and make the case…

  1. On his day he is a smart horse and while not getting any younger there were clear signs LTO that some ability remains and he maybe coming to peak fitness. All race conditions look fine and he is versatile as to the ground. That is important as I have no idea what it will be. It is currently soft, good to soft in places. But, the weather has been decent and is set fair so you would expect it to dry out. Good to soft is fine, and he ran well on good to firm the last day. No excuses on that front. He is 1/2,2 places over CD.
  2. The jockey booking has to catch the eye- the man of the moment is in the saddle and he takes off a valuable 5lb. In effect that takes his mark down to OR60. In September 2014 he won a C4,6f race off 84 (79 with claim) That was his last win and he is 19lb below that here. The handicapper is willing him to strike at some point. Clearly he is not as good as he was then. However, having said that, last May, for this trainer, he came 3rd off 83 in a C2 at Chester. 4 runs ago, at the back end of last season, he came a 1.5l 3rd off 8lb higher in a class 5.
  3. The last day he ran ok- a staying on third. He carried 11-7 on his back that day so this 8-9 or so (with claim) may feel a bit lighter. That was his second run of the season and it could be that on this third start he is ready to roll. He has been his most prolific – 4/14,8 p- when returning within 7 days so that is another tick. Then we have the pace…
  4. Well it was also eye-catching that the trainer has another horse running in this, a 33/1 poke. I don’t think he has the form to win, but who knows! Of more interest is that he usually races prominently (stumbled the last day). Two starts ago he led and given the selection has form over 6f I wonder if he will try and cause carnage at the front end and help force a pace collapse. You cannot fail to notice the number of front runners/pace pushers in here- There are 4-5 who really like to get on with it usually and another couple who like to be up there. On paper at least this should be run to suit. If AM can just track the searing pace he may be able to swoop late and pick up the pieces. He has demonstrated the pace to go with them at this trip also. Hopefully the jockey judges it well. He also has one of the top 3 speed figures in here and they are way ahead of the rest. Another confidence booster.

So, all in all, there is just a lot to like to my eyes. He has the back class, has dropped to a very tasty mark, is a CD winner, gets his conditions, has a load of pace to aim at, has THE claimer of the moment on top, demonstrated that he was coming back to form LTO, runs in his preferred rest pattern, is also well drawn. I would like to think if every 12/1 shot I backed had the list above going for him we would do just fine in the long run. I hope you can sense my confidence. Surely he is running a big race here. I have felt truly awful a handful of times this season- Nameitwhatyoulike the most recent- and if this one hasn’t read the script above he will be added to the list. The market will no doubt guide. If he doesn’t get backed I may have that sinking feeling before the stalls open.

Of the rest…

Well there isn’t a Kevin Ryan type ‘could be anything’ horse in here really like the last test race. For my sins I overlooked that one too quickly. Having said that it does have an open feel but not too many, if any, are doing anything differently and there are not too many reasons why many in here should improve on recent runs. Seamster may not need to but is priced accordingly. He is short enough I think. Obvious chance. I am struggling to be over-enthusiastic about the rest in truth. They all have some sort of question to answer now and I am hoping a few of them cut each other’s throats. The likes of Captain Dunne shouldn’t be able to dominate without doing too much and it would be some effort from the evergreen 11yo to take this given the pace pressure. Henley hasn’t really gone on from the win and I can’t see why he should improve on recent runs really. Trainer has gone cold again, 0/13,0 places last month. Innocently keeps knocking at the door and may go through it at some point but isn’t one to trust. He was able to dictate two starts ago and received a brilliant ride and still failed. He may not be far away but again 11/2 doesn’t feel overly generous. Danzeb needs the 1st time visor to work in a way that the cheekpieces didn’t. But,he is 3 so does have time on his side. He ran ok two starts ago and if the headgear works may build on it. Clearly not the most consistent. Quickaswecan will run his race but he also likes to lead. He is 8lb above that win two starts ago and the 47 day break is a tad off-putting. The form of that win hasn’t worked out either.

So really, it is this horse or nothing in this race for me. I think 12s is silly given all the above and I am rather excited about watching him run. Hopefully I am as excited come the end of the race.

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3.00 Muss 

Fast Act- 1/2 point win – 16/1 (bet365/BV/Lad) 14/1 (general) * UP

*ran well for a time again, until around the 2 furlong pole. Really no excuses this time. He simply looks out of love with the game at the moment, folding tamely. Maybe a change of scenery will do the trick. I am not sure what else they can try but i will keep an eye on him albeit you couldn’t really justify backing him again until he shows a bit more. Not much damage done. 

Hmm well this is a tentative, ‘i would be gutted if he went in at 16s’ stab. It isnt a confident one but having backed him LTO I want to have one more go. The blinkers seemed to spark him up a bit too much last time I think- either way the jockey killed him to my eyes in front and it was no surprise he faded. Now, he either just ran out of energy pretty quickly or threw in the towel. But, they were different tactics on him. It was pace that has drawn me in here for 1/2 a point. There just isn’t any on paper, bar this one. Most in here are usually held up or track the pace. The blinkers are removed and I am hoping they give him a more conservative front running ride if that makes sense. The lead is his if he wants it and he could get out and across to the rail. Now, I part expect him to throw in the towel again but equally I wouldn’t be shocked if he made all. He is so well handicapped now on old form that he is hard to ignore. Mainly that is because he has lost all form so we shall see. He may well have just regressed and needs a change of yard or something. But, at 16s, I couldn’t resist half a point. He may look the winner until 2 furlongs out! We shall see if he can sustain his effort. They had better ride him forward again.

There isn’t anything at a price I want to be on. Pearl Acclaim will go in at some point and inevitably I will be annoyed I wasn’t on but he is an infrequent winner and is drawn wide. He can blow the start also. Does have a new jockey on though who does well for this trainer.

That is all for this section.

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TRAINERS IN FORM

None.

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Post Complete.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Both your selections caught my eye when glancing at the cards. Also, I think Hermosa Vacquera 510L has a chance in a 0-55 on his 3rd run back and Bernisdale 750S can tot up another win as she always tries and has been in winning form on the flat since her last hurdles win.

    Chris 23/08/16 10:05 PM Reply


  • Hi All

    A qualifier for Adam Mcnamara tomorrow

    4.20 Catterick – Wotabreeze

    A further qualifier for cumani / spencer combo

    5.40 Kempton – Pacharana

    Good Luck

    Steve Wiseman 23/08/16 11:36 PM Reply


    • Thanks for the heads up Steve…Cheers. took 9/2 on Wottabreeze.

      Tony Mc. 24/08/16 12:40 PM Reply


  • Hi josh

    I like your typo error in the Horseracebase message at the start

    rarely have I been considered Normal coming from a Liverpool background but thanks for the compliment

    Norman 24/08/16 6:57 AM Reply


    • Haha- you can always rely on me for a typo!!

      Josh 24/08/16 8:13 AM Reply


  • I was interested in this race Josh as a tracker horse of mine Henley is running here. It is a tricky one this and, as you have mentioned, it looks like there will be a lot of pace on. For that reason I am willing to forgive Mrs. Waggotts poor form presently and back Henley from stall 1 and hope he jumps and leads which he did at Musselburgh when he won. The going was soft that day to so no worries there. Like the jockey booking also.

    fingers 24/08/16 7:00 AM Reply


    • Yep I won’t put anyone off him – he is only 4 and still has time on his side. I was put off by the fact that when he won he dictated a 5 runner field. I don’t think he will be able to do that here and if he does get to the lead, given the oppo, I can only think he will be doing too much. If jockey keeps hold of him a bit, but still races handy, that would help your chance. For me he isn’t doing anything different from his last 5 runs – I dont think this will be run on soft come race time but i may be wrong- guessing a bit. But, he is at least running well and maybe a repeat of one of those runs will be good enough. He may not be far away.

      Josh 24/08/16 8:19 AM Reply


  • That would make a nice f/c, Cruise the limit/ Henley????????

    Mike Dennis 24/08/16 9:57 AM Reply


    • …and a nice Eagles connection.. Don Henley..Take it to the Limit.
      Now your talking lol.

      Tony Mc. 24/08/16 12:02 PM Reply


  • Apologies again for being out of form – but in the spirit of note giving up:

    In the 5.10 at LP Hemosa Vaquera is fancied at 10/1. Also Ms Perrett has Saborido in the 7.40 at KP, 7/1.

    Gay Kelleway expects Maqueraded to win the 4.10 at LP but only evens available now.

    Good luck

    martin colwell 24/08/16 12:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin…..no wins at the distance for stalls 12/13/14…. HV is 14. Yet you’d think the distance would allow a good horse and jockey to overcome that. Time for thought.

      BOL.

      Tony Mc. 24/08/16 12:38 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh….I have Fast Act performing at 75% of it’s ability….but with this field….just a lift could see it win…
    It’s stall record is on a par with most of the others. In truth only Pearl Acclaims stall at 17% stands out. Most after that are 13% downwards…so no probs there.
    I got 18/1 at betfair.
    BOL.

    Tony Mc. 24/08/16 12:28 PM Reply


    • Yep, Peal Acclaim has interested me more as I have thought about it- could be a good chance for him IF he breaks on terms,and if he can get into a handy position. He fell out and lost all chance when tipped LTO and maybe I will regret not tipping him here. Infrequent winner though so we shall see.
      Fast Act- market is indicating that it is a good job I only went the 1/2 point! Worth a chance and interesting if any money comes closer to the off. Cant say I am confident but hopefully he can show more. IF ever re capturing 2yo form he will hack up one day.

      Josh 24/08/16 12:39 PM Reply


  • 3.00 muss What about One Boy? He fits the Aug micro and Musselburgh/Fahey TTP, looks like he needs 5f on GF to me, which he gets today

    jamesm 24/08/16 12:30 PM Reply


    • yep, he isn’t without a chance and is in two micro systems- I won’t be shocked if he wins- he is also an infrequent winner now 0/7,2p for Fahey. I would say he is versatile as to the ground- arguably his best form is with cut, he is 0/9,1 p in handicaps on good to firm now, and also 0/20,5 places in class 4 races- all wins C5 to date. But, this isn’t the strongest of races. He had a slightly troubled passage LTO but cant afford to be held up – also no 5lb claim this time. There was enough to put me off but feels open enough. That is why I was reluctant to go with him but he may well make me look foolish!
      I didn’t really see what he was doing differently from various recent runs,where he had been well backed on a few. Maybe it will drop for him here.

      Josh 24/08/16 12:42 PM Reply


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