NOTE: You will see an email capture box appear when you visit the site- it shouldn’t be appearing every time you click on a post/home/page etc – I had set it up to appear every couple of weeks. So, something broken there which I will fix asap, as that must be rather annoying I imagine! That is the case for explorer, not sure if it is working with chrome or others?…
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +6.5 points)
4.40 Newbury- Assanika – 33/1 (bet365/BV) 28/1, 25/1 (general)- NR
(everything recorded in this section 1 point win for now- given odds,type of race,shape of market, I have backed this one EW – 1/2 EW. What staking you use, if/how you back it clearly up to you)
This is very much a stats pick and comes from the premise that it may pay, over time, to follow this trainer’s first time out 2 year olds at the track. Overall Harry Dunlop is 3/19,4 places in non handicaps here. He is 2/10, 2 places (the wins) with his first time out 2 year olds here,(1TO2yo) +52 SP. This includes a 40/1 winner back in 2012 and a 20/1 winner here this year in a novice race. That one was ridden by Cosgrave and I found it of some interest that he has been booked for this one also. These stats take on a bit more significance when you see that his overall stats with ‘1TO2yo’ runners are 2/82,9 places. So, his two to date have been at this track. I don’t think that is a coincidence, but maybe it is. The horse – well she has stamina in the blood and is related to 2 year old winners. So, who knows. He doesn’t send many here but every now and then a big one has gone in- and that may be the case over the next couple of seasons. It won’t cost too much over-time. It is tricky as I think you either have to back them all or none at all as I am unsure how you would decide not to back them- the market doesn’t seem much of a guide.
I have backed this one EW given the odds (everything recorded to 1 point win bets here) and a couple of prominent ones near the top of the market. This one may be no good and may be scrubbed along early – binoculars at the ready. But, those are the stats and you can get involved if you wish. I just need to ensure I don’t miss the next big priced 1TO2yo that he has here!
I have left one 20/1 winner on my notepad this season with similar types of stats for a trainer at Nottingham and it isn’t pleasant. This section is still fluctuating and it is a mental battle- in the sense that given my approach there are always certain horses on my notepad and they do include, from time to time, decent priced winners (20/1 x2 for both Appleby and Ken Slack, 1st starts from new yards, in the last month). I will get the balance right at some point. As well as this section needing to be profitable I do want it to provide snippets that you can get stuck into, as well as stats that you may record/follow yourselves over time.
No more. Been through the rest of the notepad and they are all around 9/2, 4/1 and have questions so will leave them. No danger of a biggie being left un-backed this time.
Fahey (any odds)
4.30 Yarm- Fullon Clarets
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
Newbury (6/1<, possibly becoming obsolete after a handful of decent priced winners this season)
5.10- Blue Suede / Northern Thunder
6.50 – Francisco
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
(running total… 8/59, 14 places… +40.625 points)
6.50 Newb- None- looks a bit too challenging for me. A few too many in here who do not have many miles on the clock, who are open to progress, and who may enjoy conditions. There does look to be a bit of pace on and with luck in running could set up for Fairwaytoheaven, who if pushed may be the one I went for. But, a race I am happy to leave I think.
Nothing else on Tuesday.
TRAINERS IN FORM
Captain Felix – (30) 7/1
Hard Toffee (30) 9/1 (trainer 3/11 here, Gordon booked,and geegeez top speed figure by some way-looks like a thorough stayer though so interesting if has pace for this)
That is all for today.