FREE DAILY POST: 22/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Post complete… 2 ‘tips’ in 3.15 Carlisle and a 14/1 poke at Thirsk…

TIPS

None

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

6.35 Thirsk – Secret Lightning – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) UP

This is a bit of a poke and clearly I am still struggling for some consistency in this section with some good, some bad and some rather ugly selections over recent weeks.

This one looks interesting at the price- she jumps out to an extent on the ‘instant expert’ tab and was worthy of closer inspection. A few things catch the eye- namely the drop into C6 selling handicap class, the drop back to 8f and the return to this track, as well as her handicap mark. Last August she won an 8f, C4 handicap at Ripon off 66. At some point this mark of 55 is going to look lenient. I don’t think she stays 10f so the drop back to 8f is interesting given that is the distance of more recent success. She has also won over CD for this trainer at C6 in a decent size field. In first time blinkers she ran ok LTO for 7-8f or so before fading. The blinkers may have helped to an extent and may or may not work again. The draw is fine on the stats and she likes to front run. There are a few in here who like to get on with it but she doesn’t have to lead and should be able to track the pace, if not leading herself. The trainer is 4/13,6 places in 8f handicaps at the track and 2/8,4 places when Mullen is up. This looks a weak enough race and at the prices looked interesting. It may be that she is just really out of form and is regressing at a fast pace. Given the above at 14s I am happy to take a stab.

That will do for today.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

2.15 Carl: Scotch Mist UP 33/1

Ivory (16/1<)

3.00 Bright: Bobby Vee UP

 

J Fanshawe Kempton

8.20 Kempt – Pointel

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

3.30 Bright: Magnificent Madiba (any odds) WON 8/1>5/1

3.45 Carl: Tectonic (15/2<) DNQ

4.45 Carl: Crazy Tornado (15/2<) 3rd

5.15 Carl: Eez Eh (15/2) DNQ (2nd)

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

3.15 Carlisle

Aprovado – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (general) UP

Lydiate Lady – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (SkyB/BetF/Lad) 9/1 (BV/WH) 8/1 (general) UP*

*oh well that was just rubbish. Aprovado neither went forwards nor backwards and was trapped wide all the way round, weaking in the final furlong. But, couldn’t say that made the difference. Lydiate Lady is usually ridden a bit more prominently but was held up, running as the pre race drift suggested she would. Clearly she has just gone off the boil. The winner was an unexposed 3yo so no shock in that sense, 7th career start. Maybe the good to firm explains that poor run LTO and if you ignored that, and focused on the Haydock run over 5f I can see why some would have had a dart. Slightly put off by trainer stats of 1/57 in last 14 days also.  Still a bit to learn methinks. At no point was that race that enjoyable to watch. 

This looks like a decent little contest and there have been a few non runners already. It looks set to be run with some cut in the ground but apparently the weather is set fair so hopefully it doesn’t get any worse- albeit these two will be fine on soft.

Aprovado- this one bounced back to form LTO in a 0-75 seemingly enjoying the cut underfoot. This one won off 77 last season and is handicapped to strike again at some point. He has also won over 6f at Pontefract so should appreciate his first visit to this stiff track. This race lacks any out and out front runners so hopefully this prominent racer can get out and grab a position from his wide draw. The draw stats for races with this amount of runners are not off putting and although he has some work to do, 6s was fair I thought in the context of this race. He seems to tick a few boxes and will like the ground. If he can build on that last run, or even just repeat it, he should go close enough. The first furlong will be important, in terms of the position he can get.

Lydiate Lady – well geegeez gold users wont fail to notice her speed rating which is massive in here. It may well be an anomaly but it certainly adds to the confidence. She is also in form and it looks like is now best with cut in the ground. The fast 5f at Haydock doesn’t look to have suited on her last two runs, but she has still run well. The two runs before those recent runs were decent and put her right there in this field for me. She has gone close off 60 in the past so there is hope that this mark of 57 is within range. She is a course winner over 5f, has gone close here over 6f and should run a decent race I hope. 10s/9s seemed a bit big for me. She is also well drawn and usually races handy enough. G Lee had been in the doldrums a bit but things seem to have picked up in recent weeks and he should be riding with more confidence. now.

These two looks best suited/proven in conditions, are not hold up types, are in form, and they still have time on their side.

The rest…

Eitienne Gerard clearly has a chance but has an inexperienced jockey on top and also has a ground question. It is only a question – rarely races on ground with cut, but given the price those two things put me off a bit. If handling the ground then he won’t be far away. Hopefully the two pros above can out-ride this jockey. The likes of Poppyinthewind and Pushkin Museum have stamina questions. Mercers Row may not be far away but there are a few young ones in here with more time on their side. He is versatile but I would have more confidence if this race were packed full of front runners. He will plod on but I think a few may have a greater turn of foot near the end. Jacobs Pillow was interesting as Danny T gets the leg up for the first time in a while. He has ridden him once and placed on the AW. His wins in recent years have been in claimers and sellers and the ground is also a question for him. If money comes I may be concerned as he was staying on the last day and it wasn’t an awful run. His mark has plummeted but his two runs over 6f before his last run were awful really. On balance just enough questions but I wont be shocked if he out-runs these odds, and rather annoyed if he wins! Given his mark he is one to keep an eye on. The trainer is also a bit cold also.

I can’t really have the rest on the balance of form etc.

So, two decent chances who should run their race. Hopefully one of them has enough to prevail! GL.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

none today.

***

Post Complete.

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. I’ve got a bit of a poke in the last at Thirsk Josh namely Iceaxe. The major doubt here is the trip but there is some suggestion that it might be ok as finished well at Leicester which is stiffish. Trainer stats are a plus here as is jockey aboard this animal. The draw although the outside box might not be too much trouble due to run style so hopeful of a decent run.

    1. Hi Tom, Iceaxe’s stall is the 2nd best…so no problem there, and is the only other one plus Tan Arabiq to have won at the course. Plus CD winner Mango Chutney.
      I still have Popsie’s Joy as top of my ratings…..Iceaxe is a nice ew gamble though at 18s at Betfair.

    2. Hi Tom, I took the 18s on offer at betfair….happy days. I’m glad you pointed it out…and once I ran it through my tests it looked to good to pass up.
      Nice one lad….chuffed. lol

  2. Hi Josh,
    It’s an interesting race you’ve chosen to go for.
    Secret Lightning. has some things going for it as you say…it’s one of a few who’s won on the going….I did look again at the price, but I notice Handheld & Teds Brother [1&2 in my ratings] have the stalls with the best win ratio. Handheld 16%, and Teds Brother a whopping 27.5%. SL is in the stall next to TB and the % drops to 8.6%….a mighty difference…Also..knowing M Appleby is a trainer with ”Trainers Quotes,” I always look at his selection for any odds movement..lol..sneaky I know, But SL’s price has remained static but tempting.

    Incidentally in Crazy Tornado’s race 4.45……look at Tanawar [EW]…..Ruth Carr & J Sullivan… comes out of stall 7..which has a S/R of 44.4…now that is some advantage…it’s currently 20/1 on Bet 365. any thoughts folk.

  3. Good shout, Tony. If I didn’t want to protect my 365 account I’d have backed it and laid off on Betfair. Not quite enough of an angle for me at 16.0…drifting back out, so maybe someone here has taken advantage of your eagle eyes.
    Paul
    ah, 365 have cut to 14s now I see

  4. Apologies for my two tips on Saturday that ran too slow!

    I did flag up the Saturday before Hajaj from the Charlie Fellowes stable. It ran very green and was unplaced. However it came out yesterday and went in at 16/1. I was away and so did not post but I hope some of you remembered my optimism the week before and were on? Ivan Grozny was a non runner on Saturday and so we will never know.

    I dont have much today. Amanda Perrett has two at KP on the AW, Attest 7.50 and Fashionable Spirit 8.50. I hear that Miramonte is expected to go well in the 8.05 at Thirsk.

    Good luck.

    1. Hi Martin, I do remember but I was away myself most of the weekend….
      I usually log your choices….so that one got away…..never mind, there’ll be more.

      Cheers mate.

  5. Just had a little stab on Prancelina 2.00 Brighton…only ride for Josephine Gordon.
    100/1 on bet 365. lol. who knows?.

  6. Hi Josh
    Hope this helps courtesy of Trainers Quotes
    Mick Appleby
    Secret Lightning
    Mon 22nd Aug 2016
    A lot of runners for just a selling handicap so looks a tough race for the level. On a plus we are actually the only previous course and distance winner in the field so that must give us a chance. The drop back to a mile is a plus but does have a bit to find at the weights and not been in the best of form in recent runs on the track. More needed, but the drop into this grade will certainly help, as will the return to a mile.
    3 stars
    It does seem that Handheld is fancied even more so the softer the ground
    Good luck
    Dave

    1. Cheers David- yep sounds like they would not be surprised if she won, or if she under-performed – which was my take. She is clearly here to run here race it would seem, just whether she does or not! The softening ground is no bad thing for this one – Appleby is strange- the market never seems to be much of a guide to the bigger priced ones from what I have seen recently.

      Oh- and if trainer quotes are your thing you should take the 7 day trial to the right! 🙂

      1. Josh
        I have used trainers quotes for quite a while, but only as a guide
        towards my own thinking, a few of the trainers tend to look at
        there own horses through rose tinted glasses and if you backed every
        fancied horse you would find yourself very quickly in the poor house.
        However some golden nuggets can be found
        Dave

        1. Yep would agree with that – I am not signed up as have enough information to plough through but know some will like it- and I think within 7 days, or a low enough risk of trying for a month, that you would know if it was for you or not. I think you have to use it as a starting point.

          How are their ‘tips’ going? don’t their team sift through and pick out a best bet of the day or something? How are they getting on?

        2. Hi David, I used them for a while myself and like you quickly learned to be choosey…Some were plain awful…especially the National Hunt….but others were open and honest….I particularly like Jayne Chappell Hyam…always honest and had some good bets off her..

  7. yes the days nap is usually a good guide but i don’t really get stuck
    into them unless i fancy the horse as well. Tim Vaughan especially
    with Richard Johnson booked is a big help and other trainers such as
    Daniel Kubler and Charlie Fellowes are very well clued up as regards
    there opposition. Duke of Firenze that you tipped up last week was
    strongly fancied and with my own method of selection and your guide
    along with the horse info I stepped in with a big each way bet and was
    unlucky not to collect on the win part.
    Todays Nap runs in the 2-30 but i think any one of three can win that
    however Indus Valley has been given as a good each way bet so you pays
    your money and make your chance,good luck if you play
    Cheers
    Dave

    1. Ah yes, good sport Steve- I have just been highlighting the ‘systems’ and not those one track pointers, will try to get into habit of looking for them!

  8. G Baker had 2 at Brighton, he is in the one track trainer post because he had 2 I left them alone, buggar!!
    I was playing golf and missed them by the time I got back.
    I think the OTT post has been a success since you put it up.

    1. hmmm- well, he still didn’t run that well! Stats/angles still needs to be improved also. Showed up for a time but didn’t pick up. Yep, it is still a test for sure, some good, some not very good. Those two were very poor, not enough consideration of the ‘could be anything’ winner. Been going between +40 and +49 points for a while now!

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