It looks like being a quiet Saturday in these parts. There are no big handicap sprints to get stuck into with trends/stats etc and my Ebor stats/trends don’t help too much I don’t think! – I would only attack that race if I could get some kind of confident shortlist to help, but I think I will keep my money in my pocket. Times suggest the ground is still quick at York and they are not now forecast too much rain so in theory it shouldn’t be in the soft side, but who knows. The likes of Chester/Sandown/Perth could get more rain and their ground could change. Too much guessing again the evening before.
NEW!: There is a new post on the home page and in the Free Reports/Systems bit. It is the draft ‘Trainer Track Profile’ for Warwick (their first jumps meeting is next month, hooray!) and your thoughts are welcome. I plan to be more active using this report and will be compiling a ‘daily notes’ post, in the Members Area highlighting potential bets from the report etc. So, have a read of that and let me know what you think.
I will also start looking at any early jumps season pointers and trainers who do well in the Sept/Oct/Nov period- Nigel Twiston Davies is the obvious place to start but whether he is over-bet now I am not sure. Worth a closer look. So, plenty to look forward to, with any luck.
None. 5.50 Perth looks a bit trappy and you would expect one of the top 3 to take this – I am not sure which one and given their profiles/form etc 7/2 is only fair for each one. Presented could lead all the way but I would have been more convinced if it was softer (apparently it is still ‘good’ but who knows) mainly to slow the others down- he is a slogger and if testing would go closer. Johnson’s strength may make the different on his mount who is a reluctant racehorse who hates putting his head in front. He will look like the winner at one point. George has sent KK up here and we know he is well handicapped and this race doesn’t have much depth. He wants decent ground so if it is worse than good he could be in trouble. If i had to bet it would be on Presented to lead all the way again but the odds are skinny enough for me I think.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Misfits – 1 point win – 8/1 | 7/1 (general) UP (4th)*
*strange run – he was keen for most of the race and is clearly a current trait, as opposed to just being ‘fresh’ LTO after a break. The market didn’t scream confidence and he looks like he still has a fair bit to learn, odd head carriage at times. He came into it up the straight and looked like he may play a part before fading slightly/failing to pick up, on the run in. His good jumps were rather decent – a long term chasing prospect no doubt. Wyfield Rose went from 11/2 or so to 17/2 and just about clung on, making all.
The rain was pelting down during that race. Presented has been weak in the market but conditions coming right for him maybe,if it turns into more of a stamina test.
Lucinda Russell is 4/11 with handicap debutants at Perth in the last 5 years which makes this one of some interest. She also has a decent enough record in handicap novice hurdles here which adds to the confidence. I like to see horses doing something different when making handicap debut and this one steps up in trip by around half a mile. He is a point winner and was outpaced at times over 20f so in theory this should unlock more. He returned last time after a break and took a keen hold, weakening a couple of furlongs out. He could be spot on for this run and Russell has had a welcome winner in the last two weeks and maybe a revival could be on the horizon after a quiet period. He looks versatile ground wise also. This is a fairly weak race where Wyfield Rose may try and make all again and I wouldn’t dismiss him. But, this one is doing something different and has an interesting profile. All in all looks worth a stab at 8s for me. Hopefully he settles and has a bit in hand come the finish. The market may well guide and we may know our fate before the tapes go up!
Fahey (any odds)
4.25 Chest: Powerallied UP
4.15 Sand: Stake Acclaim NR
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.15- Gabrial The Hero DNQ
3.50 – Gabrials Kaka DNQ/ Right Touch 2nd
5.00 – Gabrials Star 3rd
1.45: Chancery DNQ
4.00: Tawdeea DNQ
5.05: Lathom UP
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
I do need to update my notes but that will be early next week, times appears to have evaporated this week.
TRAINERS IN FORM