FREE DAILY POST: 18/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Sprint Test Tip in the 8.10 Hamilton… (post complete)

NEW: There is a new research/trainer stats post HERE>>> if that is your kind of thing, also on the home page and in the Free Reports/Systems tab. I have had a look at trainers who do well when sending horses to tracks that they rarely target (1/2 runs in last 730 days) as well as those who do well at certain tracks when only sending one runner. Something there to take away and use I think, as a starting point at least.

 

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TIPS

None.

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

None.

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MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainer

Fahey (any odds)

4.55 York: Mustique UP

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

6.10 Ham: Amy Blair (any odds)

York (9/1<)

3.05 – ALL of OMeara’s (5 of them) – Firmament WON 9/1>8/1 (others DNQ)

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

8.10 Hamilton

Busy Bimbo – 1 point win- 7/1 (Bet365/SkyB/BV)

7/1 seems a shade big for this one to my eye. This is the trainer who found improvement in Economic Crisis who was seemingly exposed before leaving A Berry and doing something she had never done before when winning. It looks like he is starting to get a tune out of this one as well. She didn’t win very often for her last trainer but all conditions look fine (is a CD,C5 winner), there is a bit of pace on paper to aim at, and Evans is up for the first time. That was eye-catching in the sense that he was called on when Economic Crisis won and he claims a valuable 5lb. Her last two runs have been decent, getting outpaced near the end on both occasions. The extra pace and stiff finish here could see her to better effect.

The Ryan horse, Bronze Beau and Gowanless like to get on with it and hopefully Evans keeps this one close enough to the pace and pounces entering the final furlong.

I think Salvatore Fury is worth taking on at his price, albeit he was visually impressive the last day. He isn’t the most consistent and has gone up 8lb and he has yet to win from a mark that high on the turf. He is also back up in class and has never won in this level of C5 or above. The Ryan horse lacks experience but could have anything in hand but again looks priced up accordingly. The rest have a few form/wellbeing questions now I think. Tinsell was the other I had a good look at and the trainer is hitting form. But he does just keep placing/running on late and his mark isn’t moving at all. I cant see why he would improve on any recent runs really and I don’t think a repeat will be good enough. I could have that wrong though.

So, an interesting little race and happy to have 1 point on this one at 7s. She has been travelling well recently and will look like playing a role in the finish at some point.

 

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TRAINERS IN FORM

I will stay at Hamilton for a few trainer in form starting points…

6.40 – The Big Day (14) 4/1 | SS Vega (30) 9/2

7.10 – Neuf Des Coeurs (14) 5/1

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That is all for thursday.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

    1. Hi Dan…ah yes, good spot- well yep he did used to train them both and interesting that he still owns them. Yep I believe he has retired, I don’t recall seeing any of his runners recently.

        1. How intriguing! Well, Busy Bimbo is looking rather weak in any case so sirens are starting to sound. Money for AstroP is interesting – some very smart old form for previous yards but has done nothing yet for new trainer. He isn’t really doing much different from recent runs but maybe he hasn’t been that fit. Market suggests he will run well but I am yet to be convinced, was 20s though.

  1. Keep hitting the posts at the moment so will leave my selections out for tomorrow although looking at the stats barring 5f (0/2), Dettori and Gosden are 5/10, 7 places at York in 2015 to 2016. Combine that with a little system I have for John Gosden’s fillies in class 1s over 1m2f to 1m4f where I think he is very successful particularly in August (7/17 +65) and I think both his in the 15:40 and 16:20 are interesting.

    1. Good luck Nick- post hitting, while frustrating, is more positive than if they were constantly falling out the back of the tv! Keep positive and the winners will come again at some point.

      1. Yeah true. In fairness I did make a mint on the 365 inplay free bet offer on Sunday just cant seem to tip a winner.

        I am giving Best Boy Barney (Stratford 16:05) one last chance. He will have no ground excuses today and there seems to be less pace than last time so hopefully will be less hassled up front. Also think Anton Dolin in the last race on the card was over priced having gone close the previous two times on good ground over the trip in what looks a poor race. Lastly Fair Eva should hose up in the 14:30 at York but in a 9 runner race I had to find something to take her on with and Nations Alexander looked too big at 33/1. Seems to fit most of the trends. The Hannon’s have won the race twice in the past 5 years.

        1. Yep I had a look at BBB but talked myself out of him, albeit he is an attractive price. I thought he had been just a bit too disappointing and he has been poor in recent races from an early stage. He does get his ground here and maybe he will get an easy lead, albeit plenty of pase [ushers in there- I wonder whether he is just regressing now/slowing down markedly. I will watch with interest, and probably through my fingers if he is a few lengths clear heading out for one final time!

          1. Will take the place. Given he didn’t sulk once headed he should win one of these since the front two are well handicapped, just had previously struggled to put it together. Clearly does need to have fast ground.

  2. Good luck today everyone on our second ‘midweek Saturday’ of the week (referring to the Saturday-like quality of York’s racing of course). A few of my more speculative bets today:

    8.10 Ham – Encantar has been on my tracker since finishing well at Carlise. Had to back this one in the race as well. Blinkers and jock change might do it. If not, will wait for next run at Carlise, where he seems to like it

    3.05 Yor – Mister Universe was the only one in the field who ticked all boxes: draw and run style to suit along with a liking for course, dist and ground. Worth a pop at 33/1

    3.40 Yor – Managed to get 40/1 about Harlequeen, which seems far too big for what she’s done and could do if settling this time

  3. BTW Josh what do you make of Joe Fanning’s really poor record at York. He is now 0/27, 1 place in the last two years. Given he is an accomplished rider and connected with a powerful stable it looks odd to me however it’s a large enough sample size to think it’s not just an anomaly. Any thoughts?

    1. Chris/Nick… well I would think Joe’s poor record is linked to that of Mark Johnston? – he has a shocking record here,at this meeting, around 2/75 last 4 years- but then Fahey had a similar record and won a race yesterday- maybe best to check a trainer’s record in any given race if you can- Fahey had won yesterday’s race previously.
      Maybe Joe’s judgement of pace/positioning in massive fields/at this track, is just not as good as at others. I would think most of his rides are for Johnston, and it doesn’t look like a meeting he has targeted in the past- that may change though. And, when Joe does get on an outside ride, it probably isn’t that well fancied.

      I would talk myself out of backing a 7/2-5/1 shot due to poor jockey records, but not one at a big price- so many factors can affect a jockey’s track/meeting performance. He knows how to ride and it may simply be the horses he has been on, rather than anything he is doing wrong.

      1. Those stats are for York overall not just the Ebor but whilst not the greatest Johnston’s record is 8/116, 31 places so not critical and Norton’s is 3/38, 14 places so he should be at least getting in on the places. Fanning’s lack of places seems out of kilter.

      2. 4 more runs from Fanning and no places again. On the flip side that’s Mick Channon’s first winner at the track for over 2 years (over 4 years since his last handicap winner here).

  4. Rose above 5.05 Chepstow good race at Brighton it ran in trainer in tremendous form got be worth an ew at 12/1 bet 365

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