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No bet. I have been looking at the 5.30 Worcester for quite some time and I can’t make up my mind so will leave it. Pacha D P may well win this but I couldn’t be confident at his price now. He should go well but does have some questions, as every single horse in here does. AMIGO was the one I kept staring at but have decided to leave him. There is plenty of form which suggests if he runs his best he could beat this lot. But, he is inconsistent, the ground is a question (I suspect it will be like a road, not really any ‘good’ in it) and with winning form with cut,that is an unknown. There is also a lack of pace in this race which complicates matter- I think Scu could try and lead all the way if he, and the horse, wanted to. If he is leading turning for home and clearly going well,given his assured stamina,I doubt he will be caught. He is also bottom of the HRB total ratings and in general winners from that end of their ratings are hard to find, albeit they do win from time to time. Pipes record in handicap chases here is far from brilliant either. So, I have dodged it a bit. It appears to depend what frame of mind the horse is in. The last run was his bad side. I am not confident on anything so best sit it out.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
(running total: +8.5 points)
Fahey (any odds)
4.55 York: Navarone
TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
3.20: Crazy Tornado UP
3.55: Gold Flash NR
4.30: New Abbey Angel/Shes Electric
1.55: Move In Time DNQ
4.30: Saved By The Bell
SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE
Duke of Firenze – 1 point EW – 10/1-8/1 (general, 5 places around) 2nd
Line of Reason – 1 point EW – 14/1 (general, 5 places around) 4th (+4 points on race)
Oh my these races don’t get any easier and they do give you a sore head after a time. I think, possibly, that there is enough pace on here for these two ‘tracker/hold up’ horses. I am hoping they are both not plonked out the back- certainly Line of Reason has tracked the pace in races in the past. Anyway, the likes of Bowson Fred (11),Meadway (9), Robot Boy (7,and in 1st time blinkers) like to get on with it. Soapy Aitken (8) blasted off LT) last time as well. Knowing my luck all the action will end up happening nearside but on paper at least most of the pace looks middle/low. And, so far this season, low has been the place to be on good ground I believe. So, I have two on one side again and that didn’t go too well last time. I also have two who may need a bit of luck. But, there aren’t any prominent racers I am desperate to be on…
Duke of Firenze- well he just hasn’t done much wrong really and 10s, if you can get it, looks decent enough here given there should be a decent pace to aim at. He flew from the back at Goodwood LTO in a much better race than this for me and will appreciate a return to this track and distance. Allan rode him close enough to the pace when winning here earlier in the season from a decent yardstick in Brando and a repeat of that run puts him right there. He has had a few runs now this season that may catch up with him at some point but he didn’t show any signs of that last time. He did well to get as close as he did from that far back at Goodwood. He has the class, has won off 97 in handicaps so not too worried by the mark,likes the track and the ground and is seemingly in form. He should get the race run to suit and I thought looked decent enough here.
Line of Reason- well he returned to form last time out at Ascot having had a messy start. That was his first handicap in quite some time but it was a decent enough run from out the back to me. He also needs a strong pace to aim at and again on paper I think that looks likely. I will be slightly surprised if something hangs on from the front here- famous last words. He chased home a horse who had been running well enough in decent handicaps in Ireland. This time last year he was running decent enough races at G2 and Listed level. That last run indicates this mark could be within range in handicaps, in a race run to suit, albeit I couldn’t confidently say that he has much in hand.
Of the rest…. well I think those drawn on the higher side are up against it. Lexington Abbey has a chance of sorts albeit looks like he wants further to me. Baraweez looked interesting at a price due to the big drop in trip but surely he will be getting outpaced/behind here, even with a fast pace. If he is travelling well in midfield early here that would be interesting but he looks a 7-10f horse to date. Boom The Groom- well he is a downhill horse for me and I am unsure if this more galloping track will suit- his best grass runs have been at Epsom and Goodwood. That last win was decent and he did drift all the way over- it would appear though he was coming from the bets part of the track, given how the rest of the week went. The rise may find him out, but he does have that track question. Royal Birth has that draw/side of track to overcome and I don’t know who will take him into this. Hey Chewed may for a time. That last run was only ok, struggling to reel in the front two. He ran ok here twice earlier in the season but is held by DoF. There is around an 8lb swing from that day I think but he did that well enough there to suggest that isn’t enough to overturn things for me. If I have the draw/pace wrong, he may embarrass me. He seems to like that stiff Ascot strip, coming home late.
Bowson Fred had everything go right the last day and still couldn’t hold on. I am hoping he sets this up for a few closers. It will be interesting what the jockey does- stay up the middle, or try and edge over one way or the other. I didn’t know what to make about the jockey situation and the fact Evans has jumped off. In effect he is 5lbs higher here. He keeps finding a few too good in this class but should give it a good go. I worry about good to firm for Harry Hurricane, that is a question he has. He is also a hold up horse who needs plenty to go right, including the start which he can mess up. He may not be far away up the middle. Robot Boy interested me but I didn’t like the first time blinkers. Connections clearly think he may hold some back at times. He should be up there from the off and has some sort of chance. It depends how he reacts to the headgear and Barron is coming into form.
Hoofalong interested me at a price and if any money came I would be concerned. I just thought the last two runs, and the last one, was just a bit too poor for me. That musselburgh win does stick in the mind though, he did that well in a decent race. He has ran well at the track also. Out of all the bigger priced ones he stands out and I hope I don’t regret not having a nibble. I am struggling to see an excuse for LTO unless I have missed something. Maybe he didn’t like the track. The run before that wasn’t great either. He is 5lb above that last win also. He could still have progress in him. If he wins, on the back of Nameitwhatyoulike being scrubbed off last, I may go into hibernation until October! That doesn’t leave many left but I was struggling to make a case for them.
This looks a toughie but I wanted to have a go. Plenty of ifs and buts etc. Fingers crossed there is plenty of pace on here and my two can get into a decent position to strike entering the final furlong. It looks an intriguing race.
TRAINERS IN FORM
Good luck with your bets today!