SATURDAY’S POST: 13/08/16 (COMPLETE)

Just the 3.55 to focus on today…

 

TIPS

3.55 Ripon 

Toofi – 1 point win – 14/1 (general)

Mythmaker – 1 point win – 25/1 (general)

 

Well my tipping in these big sprint races has been abject at best this season with just the one 6/1 winner to show so far. Given the types of race and the competitiveness the win strike rate will never be huge and you usually try and tick along by collecting the odd bit of place money along the way. Sadly the majority of mine have failed to hit the places which has meant prolonged pain. But, we go on. The sprint testing zone should give some promise that at some point I will find a winner or two, hopefully starting in this race.

Stats/trends I used as a guide: Age 3-7, OR 101<, Not top or bottom weights (inc joints,albeit I am cautious given the number of joint bottom weights this year) I think that would leave a shortlist of: Toofi / Moonraker / Nameitwhatyoulike / Mythmaker / Go Far / Pipers Note. That is very much a guide.

Having looked through all the runners, watched a few videos of recent races and looked at the market, these are the two I want to have a dabble on…

Toofi – Robert Cowell is going to win a big pot with this one you would think, at some point. Certainly the ability is there and he is with one of the finest masters of the sprinting art. Around this time last year he was coming a close second to Magical Memory at Goodwood off 98. With the jockey claim he runs off 95 here. He was a 1 length 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup (a possible target?) off 102. The ability is there, for sure. A few things look interesting to me.

Firstly Cowell is now ‘in form’ and there are not too many in this race. In the last 14 days he is 5/23, 0/23 in the 14 days or so before that. The jockey booking looks fascinating – in the sense that I find it odd that Fahey has 3 in here, in a decent race, and he is on none of them- two of those he has ridden recently and the jockey on Tatlisu rides for Fahey for the first time I believe. It gives the impression- and it may be wide of the mark- that Cowell has gone out of his way to get the 5lbs of this one’s back. Who knows. The horse has not been asked a serious question once on any start for Cowell this season, to my eyes at least. He ran ok at York, outpaced, jockey sitting pretty motionless for the whole race, coasting home. At Ascot he ran a bit better with the stable mate winning the Wokingham. He ran ok there in midfield from the back and again no serious question asked. What on earth went on at Goodwood? Someone, a better race reading/jockey watching judge than I, tell me what the hell went on there? Kirby was pushing, lightly touching with the whip, and he was just starting to make some ground and then he just stopped riding. Nothing. Simply stopped and he coasted home. He was on the wrong part of the track, and maybe Kirby felt something- but the fact he is out here 14 days later suggests not. Maybe he thought the race had gone- and he would have been right- but he could have been much closer I think. Hard to fathom. So, he has never been asked a serious question for me and when he does he is going to have something in hand I think.

He is a sprint handicapper to watch and on the basis of all the above, in the context of his price, I wanted to have a dart. He is well drawn for this race/track. He can be held up but he raced more prominently at Goodwood in mid division. He will need luck in running and maybe this isn’t his day. I may have read it wrong and his head just isn’t in racing mode at the moment. I want to pay to find out. If/when he repeats that Magical Memory run, he wins a race like this.

Mythmaker– more speculative but I couldn’t resist a nibble at the odds. I don’t know what went wrong last time at Newcastle but that wasn’t his running. The run at York before that was in a decent enough race and he was staying on again at the end there. A repeat of that run would put him in the mix here I think. He is drawn low and races prominently which is always best for me, in general. I think Mulrennan could have rode Nameitwhatyoulike in here and I think that is a positive. That York neck second was after 90 days so the 49 day break isn’t of great concern, unless due to a problem of course. He is only 4 and this is the 14th turf start of his life. The trainer’s horses are still going well enough and he can train a sprint horse. We have seen that with Tangerine Trees over the years and with Alpha Delphini this season. At the bigger prices he looked the most interesting to me.

So, a couple of pokes- and they very much feel like that. Not horses to go mad on. Given a lot of my flat tips haven’t placed I was reluctant to go 1 point EWs- 2nd and 3rd here we come!! But, there are plenty of reasons why they could out-run their odds and hopefully we are entertained for a way.

The rest?

Well the draw is interesting here. On Good/Good to Firm, 6f, 16+ runners…according to Geegeez draw stats in the last 5 years those drawn 14 or higher are 0/59, 4 places. That is rather off-putting for that side. Bar Related I don’t think there is loads of pace that side to take them into it. Him and Kimberella will be up against that rail and maybe one of them will stay there, I wouldn’t put it past them. But, those draw stats are off-putting a tad. It suggests a track/ground bias, rather than just pace.

Orions Bow has an obvious chance but on this occasion I think 9/2 is short enough considering it is possible the handicapper may be getting his measure. He was in a blanket finish behind the winner at Goodwood and has gone up another 3lb. He could still be improving but I think he will need to again here. He travels so well and may well look the winner entering the final furlong, it is just whether something else has more up their sleeve. There isn’t much I could say to put you off him really if you think 9/2 is fine. Perfect Pasture would have a chance but has gone up 5lb and has the ratings/top weight stats to overcome. Only a slight negative but again you are looking to see if there is anything that may have more in hand. I never know what to think of those big field Irish handicaps- British raiders do quite well in them which maybe suggests they are not as strong as over here, at the higher level? Not a well thought through statement by any means.

Nameitwhatyoulike was high up there but I think he wants it softer to be at his best and I think Mulrennan would have had the choice. He is a bit more exposed than some in here. He may well get an easy enough lead and get across to be lower than his no. 13 stall. That worries me and he could place. I think there are a few too many better horses in here, or some with more potential. His track record – 1/7,6 places catches your eye though. There may be speedier types on this good ground. There wasn’t anything else that really stood out. I have been influenced by those draw stats and if Intisaab had been low he would have been high up the list. He is a hold up horse and will need plenty of luck. Related and Kimberella will give it a good go from that side though, and may take him into it. Nuno Tristan looks like a 7f horse and will need a real pace collapse at this track I think. Possible but he will need luck given his style.

All in all, one of those puzzles that starts to give you a headache after a while. I have only got one right this season, in the ‘tips’ and fingers crosses I can make it two. Hopeful rather than confident!

What do you like?

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

None today.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

2.15 Newm: Clef / Lady In Question

3.25 Ripon: George Bowen/Gdads World/Khelman/Partick

3.45 Donc: Farlow

3.55 Ripon: Tatlisu/Nuno Tristan

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.45 Newm: Pushkin Museum (16/1<)

3.20 Newm: Paddy Power / Powerallied (16/1<)

3.25 Ripon: Twin Appeal (16/1<)

3.40 Newb: Ower Fly / Palawan (6/1< guide)

4.25 Newm: Fire Fighting / Watersmeet (12/1<)

5.25 Donc: Ingleby Spring (25/1<)

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

(running total: 8/52, 12 places… +44.625 points)

A mediocre run from Groundworker there, the cheekpieces clearly having no effect. The race did set up for the winner, getting his head in front for the first time since last April, the drop in class, fast pace and quick return seemingly doing the trick. He was running well but I thought 4s / 9/2 was about right/slightly short this morning. I thought he may get outpaced over this CD but he did it well. In truth he won in a manner which made that price look big. Always room for improvement. 

None today.

 

***

That is all for today. Good luck with your bets.

 

***

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • My big price poke for Saturday is Louis the Pious at 33/1, 3.55 Ripon. Dropping in the weights and if it finds some form would be value?

    I am on ante post in the Ebor on Ivan Grozny.

    Charlie Fellowes thinks Hajaj will go well in the 3.50 at Newmarket.

    Martin Colwell 12/08/16 9:35 PM Reply


    • Me likes that one too LTP but gone for Snap Shots basis of age & draw, Intisaab has to be feared, has good cdg stats & according to the RP rpr’s is the only improver in the field but he doesn’t get in the cdg top6:

      Tatlisu 8-9
      Snap Shots 8-9 (20/1, two years younger than this lot? Ran personal best CD last time.)
      Pipers Note 8-10
      Louis The Pious 8-13
      Nameitwhatyoulike 8-13
      Baccarat 9-8

      Andy Silvers 13/08/16 12:56 AM Reply


    • Hi Martin, I’ve had a small wager on LTP…the only concern is no winner from that stall.

      Tony Mc. 13/08/16 12:17 PM Reply


  • Mythmaker looks OK, I like the fact that it was staying on well at York, which should suit this race.
    But – has D O’Meara got a lurker at the foot of the h’cap with Mujassam @ 25/1? Two front running wins over 7f when with Varian, last season, one fresh (easily, fair time, good going) and returning here after 7 weeks off.
    Drops to six after further runs this season over seven, drawn 4 and Makin up. Could have the pace for the race?

    Chris 12/08/16 9:44 PM Reply


  • My personal shocking run continues (even if most are dropping in price considerably) so you probably want to stay clear of these but this is what I am on tomorrow:

    Croquembouche Newbury 16:45-Is the only front runner at a track which favours them. Conditions look ideal and back to 1lb below his last winning mark. Trainer had a winner at Newbury today with his only runner and this is his and the jockey’s only one tomorrow. Georgia Cox takes 7lb off as well.
    Syrian Pearl Newmarket 14:45-Form of his last win over course and distance has been franked very well. I am going to excuse his last run since Chris Wall’s horses werent running well. Stable now well and trully in form with 5 of the last 6 runners finishing 1st or 2nd. Ted Durcan/Chris Wall are 3/5 at Newmarket (July) handicaps in the past 2 years.
    Brazos Doncaster 15:45-Ran ok LTO in a much tougher race (plus I think there was a slight bias to those drawn low) and returns to the track he won at 2 stats ago. Harley also returns to the saddle and is 2/2 with the trainer at the track in handicaps. Should go close.
    Classic Seniority Newbury 15:40-Ran well in the Stewards Cup and drops down in grade. Trainer has made the long trip down south and has never had a runner at the track and has booked Paul Hanagan for the ride both of which I thought was eye-catching (has only once ridden for her before and that was 5 years ago)
    Soie Dleau Doncaster 16:20-Another who ran well in the Stewards Cup and drops down in grade. Had a good 2nd on ground that wasnt ideal back in April here. Trainer has been a bit cold recently but had a winner today at Newcastle.
    Snap Shots Ripon 15:55-Fits most of the trends bar the joint bottom weight which I am willing to forgive. Has a record of 122 at the track so clearly likes it around here. Dascombe is another trainer in a rich vein for form with his last 2 winning and 4/6 placing. Expect him to be raced prominantly and I thought the price was too big.

    Nick Mazur 12/08/16 10:39 PM Reply


    • Winner and the NAP being done on the line by a Haggas hotpot. I think the rumours of a Newmarket bug have been wildly exaggerated. All the big Newmarket stables getting winners today.

      Nick Mazur 13/08/16 4:53 PM Reply


      • had croqumbouche aswell nick thought it was going to hold on hope your right about Newmarket trainers got subtle knife in the6.35 ling big drifter trained at newmarket

        antony church 13/08/16 5:43 PM Reply


  • I backed Trafficker 7.15 MR at 9/1 last night.The horse has had dire performances so far but will win eventually.Nigel Hawke had a very poor 15/16 but has good record at MR,Berry De Carjac is a bit of a stab 8.15 with Tom Scu

    gerry 13/08/16 9:40 AM Reply


  • I like CORNWALLVILLE 3.40 newbury dropped in class after running to sound races against inform horses decent ew chance at 10/1

    antony church 13/08/16 11:53 AM Reply


    • Hi Antony…..been on my tracker for a while, but I still think it’s not the right distance,,,will back it however…Good luck.

      Tony Mc. 13/08/16 12:22 PM Reply


      • Well done guys with Cornwallville nice winner in a tough race

        Steve Wiseman 13/08/16 3:45 PM Reply


  • Hi guys. Heading to Market Rasen with some family and friends thus afternoon. Anybody have any thoughts for the card. Obviously Josh’s stats are a start point. Thanks Ben

    Ben Watson 13/08/16 11:58 AM Reply


    • the one I’m backing at market rasen is Caspian piper 7.15 ran 4th in a decent race trainer on form top jock who is in recent form and good at the course have a good evening with plenty of winners
      antony

      antony church 13/08/16 4:16 PM Reply


  • Official….a bug is sweeping the Newmarket area…so proceed with caution. Hope no one brings it North.

    Tony Mc. 13/08/16 12:23 PM Reply


    • Hi Tony.. your note/cheque arrived, cheers! Yep that bug is concerning, esp with York next week – have some decent angles for Haggas for example who always does well at the meeting, interesting if his string is affected but sounds like caution advised.

      Josh 13/08/16 12:25 PM Reply


  • I must say, I like the look of Pipers Note in the 3.55 Ripon.
    4/9 (44%) at Ripon, distance no problem. 13 runs, producing 3 wins and a place on good ground. Softening ground would be a negative, but if it remained good or quickened, will be ideal. George Chaloner rides and has a 25% win strike rate on the horse (20 runs, 5 wins and 8 places).Days since last run is ideal and the horse seems to go well at this time of year. Runs off 95OR today, some 8lbs lower than last winning mark of 103. At 18/1 on Betfair, I’ll be having a bit of win and place. Always a bit of luck required in these sprint handicap cavalry charges, so may amount to nothing of course. All the best with yours, good luck! 🙂

    Marcus W 13/08/16 12:25 PM Reply


    • yep, you make a strong case for him and another where you wouldn’t be shocked if they won, like a lot in here- I was slightly put off by the draw stats, but 14 may be ok, the trainers recent form and that of the horse. But, this could well have been the target and the last race he showed more, he is well handicapped again now and as you say we know he likes the place. he is also on my trends/stats shortlist guide. Hmmmm. Good luck, suspect you will get a run for your money.

      Josh 13/08/16 12:29 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / Guys

    Something a little different today….Apparently the Scoop 6 is 50% easier to win today due to the amount of runners so we are looking at 40 million to 1 odds instead of 80 lol….I’ve spent the morning going through the races and yes 40 million to 1 seems about right but as a test using Draw stats, breeding stats and more stats I’ve come up with the following….

    Newmarket 2.15 (1) Somebody to Love 9.00 BF, & (8) Clef 7.8 BF
    Newmarket 2.45 (7) Honcho 18.0 BF & (10) Champagne Bob 12.0 BF
    Newmarket 3.20 (4) Mont Kiara 7.8 BF & (9) Paddy Power 17.5 BF
    Ripon 3.25 (6) Shipyard 11.0 BF & (13) Fendale 16.0 BF
    Newbury 3.40 (8) Valley of Fire 15.5 BF & (12) Classic Seniority 18.0 BF
    Ripon 3.55 (3) Orions Bow 6.2 & (12) Go Far 75.0 BF

    Now I believe this would cost around £128.00 to place using 2 selections each race and I can assure you I have not done that. But this could be a way forward for maybe a syndicate of 8. 16. or 32?…..It may also be an idea to have 3 or 6 people who have access to HRB or Geegeez Gold to do 1 or 2 races each for that syndicate?…..Anyway just a thought but with the opportunity of scooping (pardon the pun) a big pot using reason, testing & theory and of course a lot of luck it would seem a better option than the lottery…..

    As for the selections above I shall play them race by race for testing stakes only and see how they go…Once again good luck with all your selections today

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 13/08/16 12:30 PM Reply


    • nice work steve. will follow race by race.

      Daniel 13/08/16 12:44 PM Reply


    • Will follow with interest Steve….Best of Luck.

      Tony Mc. 13/08/16 12:57 PM Reply


    • My initial ratings for the match are. No other factors taken into account yet.

      2.15 N/M Bongrace and Texas Katie.
      2.45. Andar and Case Key.
      3.20. Projection, Mont Kiara, Udontdodou.
      3.25. Ripon…..Pea Shooter/ Shipyard/Rex Imperator.
      3.40 N/b……….Von Blucher [bad draw], Dollar Reward.
      3.55 Ripon…..Kimberella/ Intisaab/ Related [bad draw], Orions Bow [badish draw] all within 1% of each other.

      Tony Mc 13/08/16 1:15 PM Reply


      • Good stuff

        Made a note of yours too Tony see if we can hit some winners again 🙂

        Steve Wiseman 13/08/16 1:23 PM Reply


        • It’s a typical Saturday Steve….all cagey trainers going for the big pot.

          Tony Mc. 13/08/16 1:26 PM Reply


  • Unlucky Josh 1st & 3rd on your shortlist

    Steve Wiseman 13/08/16 4:13 PM Reply


    • That’s not the word I would use Steve. When you narrow a race down to three and cross off the 28/1>16s winner it is a tad disappointing! Talked myself out of him. Bereft.

      Josh 13/08/16 5:20 PM Reply


  • Some good shouts today….Josh, Steve, Antony…..I’ve just had SUMMER CHORUS go in…betfair paid me out on 21/1…so I’m going to have a large.

    Cheers lads.
    I took 9/2 on Avel Vour in the 5.40 MR, but it’s come in to 9/4…so never passed it on.

    very impressive that stuff you get off your stats base Steve, I took Clef as I’d followed it before.
    I’ll answer your system mail after. Looks like we could be millionaire’s lol.

    Cheers lad

    Tony Mc 13/08/16 4:47 PM Reply


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