FREE DAILY POST: 10/08/16 (COMPLETE)

 

SUMMARY: Sprint Test Tips in the 5.00/5.35/6.20 and a Stats/Angles poke in the 8.10 Kempton….

 

Well I have the pleasure of turning 27 today (the 10th), edging closer to that magical 30…gulp. (yes yes I can hear many of you muttering ‘stop your moaning young man!’) I will be celebrating with around 40 friends on Saturday evening, continuing what is now an annual party that I first held on my 16th. I don’ think my parents mind the annual descent on their house! One year I will drag them all up to Liverpool, but the flat is a bit small and I will need to up-size first. Anyway, I will be trying my best to find a birthday winner….

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I was going to mention some of the horses I left on my notepad yesterday morning, left out of the ‘stats angles of interest’ section. It is far too painful to dwell on them for too long. (albeit I have for long enough to try and ensure I don’t miss that type next time- and there will be a next time)  Suffice to say If you are an avid user of Geegeez Gold Stats Reports, and just trusted the stats alone…(instead of overthinking like me) you probably found the winner of the 3.00 Thirsk 16/1, the 3.15 Chepstow 10/1 and the 5.10 Lingfield 10/1. Suffice to say I am not in the best of moods as I age another year! 🙂 I only had 4 horses on my notepad today, from that scan through. 36 points left on the notepad. Pass the noose. Still, another good day for ‘Gold’ at least, and you can now get a 30 day trial for £1 if you click the big blue box to the right. Definitely worth £1, and with any luck you may pay for a few months subscription during the next 30 days.

Maybe I should just post my shortlist in the Members Forum moving forward. Many of you will likely make better final decisions than I do sometimes. Something else to ponder. This game is essentially a mental struggle/battle!

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RESULTS… I have updated results for the year to date/July. I have reflected on them and they are worth a read… the systems have been abject at best in truth and extreme caution is advised, esp with TTP ones which were new this year. I need to go through the individual micro systems, as well as take a long hard look at my own approach. Anyway, that post is on the Home Page or under the RESULTS tab.

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Right, onto the horses….

 

 

TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

8.10 Kempton – Personal Touch- 1 point win – 16/1 (SB/BV/WH) UP

This is one of the few ‘profile horses’ I researched and in truth not many of them have run in ‘ideal conditions’ as yet, and a couple have won at levels seemingly beyond them. This horse is 3/7,5 places when dropping into C4<6k handicaps. He has won at the C4 level above this, but those wins have been rare- indeed he is 1/27, 7 places above this C4 level in handicaps. His best form has also been over 7f. He has a decent record on the all-weather, albeit this is his first trip here. This is his first run in this class for this trainer and two starts ago he ran well in the C4 above this. The jockey is 3/10,4 places for Appleby in handicaps and that was another tick. He looks weak in the market, and there are some more fancied ones with more appealing profiles. But, given the above and the price I had to have a go. I am convinced the trainer will get a win from him at this class,(as his two previous trainers have done) whether on the sand or the turf, and hopefully it comes sooner rather than later. He has the ability to take this race. The market may well guide, the early signs far from positive!

That is all for today.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

August Trainers

Fahey

5.35 Bev: One Boy (any odds) UP

 

Roger Varian Females (25/1<)

3.50 Salis: Sharja Queen UP (they are definitely ill I think)

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

4.00 Bev: Templier (any odds) UP

4.30 Bev: Spance Mountain (any odds) WON 5/4

 

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

Day total: 1/3,1 place… +6 points.

5.00 Beverley

Noodles Blue Boy – 1 point win – 9/1 (general,6 bookies odds checker) 8/1 (general) UP*

*Oh,well they decided not to bother riding him forward at all here. How very strange! The money came for Bosham late, 25s into 12s… apart from his recent form I was mainly put off by his course record here, 0/7,0 places..most off lower marks in similar conditions, and a few when he had got an easy lead. And I certainly didn’t think he would get an easy time at the front here. He was dropping in class from recent runs and had plummeted through the weights so I can see why some may have had a go at the prices. Dont think my pin was close to him! Easterby gamble landed, in part helped by that easy lead…….. hmmmm. Noodles is in again tomorrow, he didn’t have much of a race there so interesting if he turns up. 

I have deliberated this one and it was either a small nibble on this old veteran or no bet at all. At the prices I have just decided to have a dart. It is mainly his draw, his speed and his recent runs which spurred me on. That last run should be marked up- he dwelt in the stalls (a slight niggle) and was behind runners before being rushed up and sent to the front. In part this lit him up further I think and the jockey didn’t do much to retrain him- he flew. He managed to keep going entering the final 1/2 furlong before those exertions took their toll. He has the highest speed figure in here and the top two (Fyrecracker the other) are some way clear of the rest. The jockey booking also caught the eye, in the sense that it is the first time he gets a pro in 10 starts and it is the first time he has ridden the horse. That could make some difference, certainly in terms of getting the fractions right. He doesn’t win very often but usually gets one on the board every year and he is running as if there is still life. He has gone close off 74 last season in a class, 4, with no jockey claim.

There is potentially other pace pressure but I don’t think anything else is as quick as him in the early stages here, if braking on terms. Bosham may try from his low draw, the Ryan horse can push the pace and maybe Fyrecracker. If they do too much then it is likely he will fade late again, hence no EW bet. I thought he was worth a go- he could make all here against horses with plenty of questions.

Most in here have questions now albeit there are a few 3 year olds who may step forward at some point. Geno keeps changing trip and headgear- suggesting connections don’t really know. He does get Stott on board and maybe he makes horses respond differently. He is in good form and maybe 6s is fair. He will be up there, tracking the pace. But, he does keep disappointing. A return to the CD of his one win may help. Fyrecracker would have a chance and is dropping in trip which caught the eye, although he has been staying on over 6f. If he can lay up here he may go close. He could get behind though. Salvatore Fury would have a chance on bits and pieces of form as does First Bombardment. If there is a pace collapse that would bring Oriental Splendour and Savannah Beau into it, who will need plenty of luck given their running styles and draw.

So, it does have an open feel to it. I am hoping Noodles can break on terms, get out fast, bag the rail, see off any other early pace pushers and make all.

 

5.35 Beverley

Mappin Time – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/lad/BetB) 15/2 (general) WON 9/2 SP *

*well I suppose getting the pace spot on in both races here was maybe too much to ask, thankfully this one went perfectly to plan- they blasted off, the pace collapsed and this classier/well handicapped beast made the most. The gaps came and job done. It was a bit touch and go until the camera levelled up but comfortable enough for a sprint. Job done. Class droppers doing the job in both races- I wonder if the Easterby clan had the double on. Drinks all round! 

If the pace-map is to be believed this one is going to get the perfect set-up here. He seems to have plenty in his favour, and with luck in running, could well take this. I can count 6 in here who usually lead if they can, a further couple who can push the pace. This looks like it should be run at a frenetic pace, unless a few too many change tactics of course. Either way he is well enough drawn to sit off this pace and come through runner. He may hit traffic etc but that is the chance you take. His best run of recent times was over CD a couple of runs ago where there was a pace collapse and he ran well enough. The class drop catches the eye as well. He is 2/3,3 places in C5 in his career and hasn’t run at this level for a long long time. He was good enough to come a close 5th in a C2 at York last May off 87, running off 73 here. He has form on a decent surface. So, hopefully, they all go too quick and set it up for this one. He looks best over 5f these days and if putting it all together would win this.

As always in these races you can make a case for a few. Ellison runs one for the first time from another yard. He does well here in these conditions (5/22,8 p in CD handicaps, C5,good/firm) The horse is 8lb above his highest mark but changes of scenery can work wonders. For old connections he liked to get on with it- i hope they continue that. Whozthecat is just tricky and is 0/5,0 places over CD in handicaps. From the wide drawn Tudhope has a decision to make and I hope he decides to rush him forwards and to be up there. Krystallite was fancied by me at 14s before being pulled out yesterday. She would have a chance but is another who may suffer from a pace battle. She may not of course but isn’t 14s here. Bond Bombshell clearly has a chance but has gone up again, and has the pace problem also.

So, Mappin Time clearly needs plenty to go right for him to win. He is a hold up horse and he may be unlucky in the run. But, he gets what he needs here and a massive run looks on the cards to me. He is clearly a thinker though, let’s hope he got out the right side of the stable today.

 

6.20 Bath

Royal Brave – 1 points win – 4/1 (bet365) 7/2 (general) UP*

*well I was right to be cautious but even so that was a rather poor effort. Not sure what was up there but I cant think that was his running. A line through that one. Those ‘trapped wide fast finishing LTO’ do suck you in. Maybe a return to Ponte is needed with a low draw, luck in running and an EW price. 

Well having pondered I have concluded that I think 7/2 is a fair price here given his form and that of the others. I was tempted to go 2 points but the number of 3 year olds, despite having moderate form to my eyes, haunts me slightly – as does the lack of obvious pace. But, this one can race handily enough and will enjoy this fairly steep climb to the line. He is well handicapped now and has run a couple of crackers in recent runs. I think this looks the weakest race he has contested in recent runs. That run LTO at Ponte has to be marked up given he had to circle runners from out the back from his draw. He did very well to get that close and a repeat of that run sees him take this for me. That was a decent little contest. He has placed at the track and on firm ground. The trainer is 2/7,5 places with her runners here to date. The rest in here have some sort of question now and this looks his for the taking. To two points or not to two points, that is the question. I will take the cautious approach this time.

 

CATALINAS DIAMOND… I will leave at 8s and we know what will happen now. She will probably be the only one in this section to win knowing my luck/recent mental anguish! What a Birthday present that would be! She has never fully convinced when it is rattling quick here- all wins on good/good to soft and she usually needs a strong pace to aim at. I don’t think he will get that here and it could be a tactical affair. She is up against some more in form rivals open to further progress.

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That is all for the sprinters today.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM

Enough going on today so I will leave this bit.

 

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Post Complete.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • Enjoy the birthday celebrations Josh! Hit the big 3-0 this year, no bad thing at all & I don’t feel a day over 29!! Haha.
    Royal Brave has been a horse I’ve been tracking since its 3rd at Catterick back in May. I know he’ll go in soon but his hold up style can cause problems getting the splits and has been unlucky in running on a few occasions. Hopefully the wider run-in at Bath may suit the horses hold up style.
    Would anybody know where Paddy Brennan is based – I know he’s Tom George’s stable jockey but has one ride at Newton Abbot tomorrow on Mount Vesuvius (15.10) so wondering whether he’s making a considerable trip to ride? Again this ones been on the radar since last summer, another frustrating sort but off a career low mark off 79, having had a rather unsuccessful spell chasing. Brennan’s rode the horse once – 3 years ago finishing 2nd off 92 at Uttoxeter over 21f so seems significant P Henderson has booked and this is his only ride.
    Thoughts appreciated.

    Leon 09/08/16 9:40 PM Reply


    • 148 miles Worcester to Newton Abbot http://www.horse-racing.org/top-national-hunt-jockeys/paddy-brennan/
      Has a lot of connections down this way having ridden for Nicholls, Hobbs & NTD

      Andy Silvers 10/08/16 3:30 AM Reply


      • 2% P Henderson 1/47 with his hurdlers at track & 8% P Brennan, although he is joint cdg I prefer the stats of the other one’s trainer but not jockey of – Taste The Wine – priced better too but think they’re both playing for places at best ? ? Don’t like the race if had to have a bet Kruseman cdg3 EW 17/s

        Andy Silvers 10/08/16 3:51 AM Reply


        • Thanks Andy, pretty uninspiring trainer/jockey strike rate that. Think I may swerve it now given the low grade nature of the race. Thanks, leon

          Leon 10/08/16 7:07 AM Reply


          • Pesky stats, eh! Ah I hope you still had a nibble…pretty sound ‘behavioural’ reasoning there, esp given jock record on horse etc. Always horrible when you talk yourself out of a horse and I did that with three double price winners yesterday!

            Josh 10/08/16 3:35 PM Reply


            • Hi Josh,
              Nope not a bean on! Silly decision and a lesson learnt there for me – sometimes stats (negative) should be ignored when you have a hunch such as that.
              Oh well, we move on.
              Cheers, Leon

              Leon 10/08/16 4:01 PM Reply


    • Thanks Leon.

      Josh 10/08/16 12:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh In my mail the other day on systems, I wrote of the need to change them on a regular basis. That’s not to draw a wide brush over all of them…but I’ve found over the years that they change…some barely perceivable, but they’ll trap you if you don’t keep a very close eye on them, and this year [for whatever reason] it has been markedly so. I would say I’ve ditched 30% of my systems BECAUSE I SUSPECT SOMETHING HAS CHANGED. The results tell you before you spot the cause, so you have to be savage and cut the system out. If it recovers then reinstate, but still try to find the cause.
    I know this may appear a simplistic approach, but it’s stood me in good stead.
    I prefer systems because I haven’t the patience, eye, or temperament to follow other methodologie’s…mine is systems. i’m happy with that, which flags up that something is changing and you need to get your scalpel out.
    But you will be the judge. All things change in racing…Trainers try different approaches that your not aware of and suddenly your win % starts to drop.
    Like in all walks of life, they experiment & not always for the better.

    Tony Mc. 09/08/16 9:46 PM Reply


    • thanks Tony, yep I agree…i need to row back a bit, analyse them all, and go back to basics…and maybe have a narrower focus that I can keep a closer eye on. Work to do!

      Josh 10/08/16 12:13 PM Reply


  • Happy Birthday for tomorrow Josh hope you have a great day…..sounds like you’ll definitely have a good weekend 🙂

    Nothing on the system front tomorrow for me but I couldn’t resist having another piece of the pie with my old favourite Save the Bees 3.30 Beverley….Positives are its still his time of the year, Course & ground is fine, The 7lb claimer has won 2 of his last 4 on him and there is a fair chance he’ll have that uncontested lead which is imperative…Negatives he has never won off a mark as high as 79 (but the way he waltzed home at Pontefract 2 starts back I don’t see an extra 6lb stopping him) & there is a possibility he could be taken on for the lead by Taraz who has front run to success in the past and is drawn next to him on the inside….the latter would be the most concerning but nevertheless at 12.0 I am happy to see if he does…

    I think you know my take on systems but just to add an analogy……

    I guess its like buying and owning a brand new car, It starts off in tip top condition but you constantly run it not checking tyres, oil etc….after 6 months its not quite as good 9 months something doesn’t seem quite right but you continue driving anyway…then after a year it brakes down and you wonder what happened after all it was working perfectly and its only 1 year old!!…..

    Steve Wiseman 09/08/16 11:27 PM Reply


    • thanks Steve, yep I agree with that. Some work to do on the systems front for sure!

      Josh 10/08/16 12:14 PM Reply


    • I thought we had it there Steve….I was convinced STB was just there..**** another 2nd.

      Tony Mc 10/08/16 3:36 PM Reply


      • Hi Tony

        Yes the race went perfectly got the uncontested lead slowed it down before kicking for home but maybe that mark of 79 done him after all almost there but not quite but still at the odds was worth a go

        Steve Wiseman 10/08/16 4:01 PM Reply


        • Will definitely win again….No danger, others were dead. lol

          Tony Mc. 10/08/16 4:58 PM Reply


  • Hi josh. Happy birthday to you. Hope u have a great day.

    daniel 10/08/16 7:12 AM Reply


    • cheers Daniel, appreciated.

      Josh 10/08/16 12:15 PM Reply


  • Have great birthday
    Keep up the good work I look forward to reading the blog
    Thanks
    Graham G

    Graham Gibbons 10/08/16 11:17 AM Reply


    • Thanks Graham, glad you enjoy the read, appreciated.

      Josh 10/08/16 12:17 PM Reply


      • Ha Ha, you even have jockeys reading the blog now Josh !!!

        Mr T 10/08/16 1:46 PM Reply


  • KIWI BAY 3.00 Beverley… A system horse….but only 4/1.

    Tony Mc. 10/08/16 12:09 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, hope you enjoy your day.

    Jarrod Holmes 10/08/16 12:13 PM Reply


    • Thanks Jarrod, yep I will try…It will be greatly enhanced if a couple of those above can drop in!

      Josh 10/08/16 12:17 PM Reply


  • Happy Birthday Josh……don’t knock your age wait til you hit the creaking knees stage…lol Enjoy your do.

    Tony Mc. 10/08/16 12:25 PM Reply


  • Have a great day josh keep up the excellent work pal remember it’s a marathon not a sprint

    Tomo 10/08/16 12:31 PM Reply


  • Happy Birthday Josh, hope you have a great day, and here’s to many many booms!! New website is looking good, and thanks to you for all your hard work (it will pay off in the long run), and to the many contributors for their insights which add to the value which this forum provides. Enjoy!

    Faz Ismail 10/08/16 1:12 PM Reply


  • Happy birthday Josh keep up the great work and have a good day !!

    kevhol123 10/08/16 1:47 PM Reply


  • Hiya Josh
    Trainers thoughts on Personal Touch, hope this helps

    20:10, Kempton Park
    Mick Appleby
    Personal Touch
    Wed 10th Aug 2016
    Personal Touch – stepping up in trip today to 7f and we put the cheekpieces back on tonight. Plus with Tim Clark’s 3lb claim I’m expecting a better run. Would be disappointed if not in the 1st 3 but we will see.

    davidw29 10/08/16 2:01 PM Reply


    • ohhh cheers David… he is a ‘Trainers Quotes’ trainer as well isnt he, or is that quote from public domain?… If memory is correct I think he is usually spot on with his assessment, I may have to go in again EW! That would indicate he is fit and here to run well. Albeit that going, esp the slow bit, is an unknown and would be a ready excuse if he does under-perform against expectations. And as we saw with his thirsk winner, first run for him, market not necessarily a guide.

      Josh 10/08/16 2:06 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh
        Yes its from Trainers Quotes, he gave it 3 stars out of 5
        and yes its each way for me also

        davidw29 10/08/16 2:21 PM Reply


  • Happy birthday old chap

    James b 10/08/16 2:15 PM Reply


  • Nice birthday winner Josh well done….Agree with your sentiments on Noodles comprimised his chance holding him back will definitely be interesting if he does turn up tomorrow

    Steve Wiseman 10/08/16 5:40 PM Reply


  • Happy Birthday Josh. Lovely little winner/gift to yourself there. Always nice when the bookies pay for the drinks!

    Nick Mazur 10/08/16 5:43 PM Reply


  • Boom – Happy Birthday Josh

    Mappin Time – Really good winner

    All the very best !! Hurtling toward 30 like!!

    Joe 10/08/16 5:45 PM Reply


  • Josh I can’t remember that far back to when I was 27 but I’m sure I had a good time so make sure you do to…

    fingers 10/08/16 7:12 PM Reply


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