FREE DAILY POST: 09/08/16 (COMPLETE)

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To today’s racing…

 

TIPS

None.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

None. Winners have tended to jump out at me and I should be more patient. Nothing doing that today.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Ivory

5.10 Ling: Surfina (16/1<)

Fahey

6.00 Notts: Champion Harbour (any odds)

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

4.00 Thirsk: Tamayuz Magic (28/1<)

5.30 Notts: Little Choosey (any odds)

6.15 Ling: Great Expectations / Tilsworth Miky

8.30 Notts: First Excel / Men United (any odds the pair)

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SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

It would appear that Dunce rhymes with Bunce and on that basis I owe you a slight apology for my ineptitude. No problems with Blue Sonic- she is a hold up horse and sometimes (often) you have to take your medicine- and there are lessons to be learnt there about just backing one hold up horse in a race, and never having something more prominent on your side, especially when a single figure price. BUT, why oh why I didn’t consider her stable mate Bunce in more depth I have no idea. I think in part I had ‘recency blinkered syndrome’ whereby my eyes were far too fixated on BS. Amateur. Slap on the wrist. If I fancied Bunce LTO,- 10 days ago when tipped- I had to have a go at 12s here. Change of jockey (noted at the time Lee’s poor record on stables horses), dropped a few more pounds, maybe in a weaker race, (definitely in a weaker race than when hitting trouble a few runs ago) and back to Ayr after a few runs away, a course we know he likes. The lump on my head, from repeatedly banging the table from about 4.03-4.10 won’t make you feel any better or any richer if you followed me in. That was poor, and I will try and ensure it doesn’t happen again. I don’t think I properly considered his chance, that was the crime. You can’t cut corners in this game. More work to do on my tracking game also. Mistakes like that happen, you just have to try and ensure they don’t happen too often. 

 

3.30 Thirsk

No bet…I have started with the C4 handicaps and having spent just over an hour looking at this one, the horse I was starting to home in on at 14s is now a non-runner. I would now be having a bet for the sake of it which is never wise. There isn’t anything else at a big price I like and the race was starting to give me a headache. Most of the bursting speed is low, they could cut each others throats and I don’t know what is running well enough to pick up the pieces. The pace may collapse for Mushariff (3rd) but he needs plenty of luck given his running style. Seamster (won) and Ziggy Lee (2nd) may not be far away up the near side. One to watch with my notepad I think. Interesting how the pace plays out. I thought Krystallite may get her own way up front up the near side and could be hard to peg back, esp if far side faded having all gone too quick. She is speedy and looked to be coming into some form. Unsure if they may split, all tack over to this side/run in one group.

 

3.45 Chepstow 

Monarch Maid – 2 points win – 7/1 (BetF/BV/SJ/Betway) 6/1 (general) UP* (-2 points)

*hmm no excuses there- was that a late jockey change or incorrectly down on the cards, in any case I don’t think the 5lb made a difference- not good enough there. Got out, able to lead against the rail and well beaten. Not much analysis needed of that. Clearly he was 7s for a reason! 

I am unsure what I have missed here but to my eyes this one leaps of the page at the prices, even more so after the non-runners. This one is the only one in here without much to prove for me and she ticks plenty of boxes. PACE is what catches the eye. This is the only out and out front runner in the race and there is chance she could get her own way up front here and make all- that is the hope anyway. On her run last time out, in a much bigger field over the CD, in this class, (well that was a 0-80,this a 0-85) she led her side all the way, picking up well when asked and running all the way through the line. Unfortunately she bumped into one on the far side who made all his own running also. That was some run and maybe it was better ground that side, I don’t know. But, she did all she could and came a valiant second. A repeat of that must put her close here. D Parkes returns and he knows her well enough, having won on her before. With his claim she is 3lb better off than the last day. The trainer is in fine form also 3/12 in the last 30 days, 2/5, 2 places the last 14 days. There could be more to come also at some stage. She is also in form and has no questions to answer for me really. I can’t quite believe her price here which makes me suspicious. I think she should be favourite.

The opposition all have something to prove- Andar… well in first time blinkers I hope he doesn’t spoil the party as he has led before but is still a maiden, has been disappointing and gets first time blinkers here. Kirby is up which is eye-catching but he needs to step up. Hopefully he is held off the pace- in any case he should fade in the final furlong hopefully. He hasn’t led on his most recent runs. Alizoom has question and so does Operative who also gets first time blinkers- his last two runs, his first two in handicaps, have been underwhelming. Gold Hunter is a tardy starter and has been staying on over 7f – in a race without loads of front runners I can only think he may struggle to get into this one. I mean he is doing something different by dropping but I can’t see much which suggests that is an inspired move. He is 1/20 and yet to win in handicaps. Egg at the ready. Midnight Rider runs over all kinds of distance and whether he has the speed for this has to be a question. His last win was over this CD last August so it isn’t impossible but he looks short enough. He has been staying on over 7-8f, not fading so who knows. Maybe it has been a ploy to get the mark down. I don’t see this leader coming back to them though if getting her own way. Gilmer is a hold up type who chased home the selection this side LTO- unless my one does too much up front I can’t see that being overturned. They could be the 1-2 here again.

So, all in all, for one in form, pretty much proven in conditions, who looks genuine and could get her own way up front, 7s/6s seemed rather big to me. Hopefully she leads them all the way here.

 

That is all for today.

NOTE: A few recent ‘tips’ reappear today…

  • AJ Cook in the 5.35 who I missed LTO having tipped the run before. He isn’t much of a price for one who needs a lot to fall right on the pace front. He could follow up but I will just watch
  • 3.30 Thirsk- Lydia’s Place who was a bit too poor LTO for my liking, failing to build on her Muss run. She looks weak in the market here and a watching brief looks the best bet- she should take the low numbers along, with a few others. Will be sickening if she does drop in but there is no obvious excuse for that last run.
  • 8.30 Notts – Loumarin goes for Appleby here but 4s seems short enough given that run LTO. I suspect he hated the track, never looking happy at all. If he returns to the form of that Notts run before he would go close. There is a bit of pace to aim at here also. Interesting, but 4s doesn’t have me jumping up and down – cue winning like an evens shot!

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TRAINERS IN FORM

None today.

 

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POST COMPLETE

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

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  • Min Alemarat and Only Orsenfoolsies look massively overpriced in the 16.30 at 22/1 against Hugo Palmers odds on jolly Walpole.
    Min Alemarat rated as high as 95 when with marco botti sneaks in to this 0-85 off 82 taken into account Rachel Richardsons claim. Has the highest SR fig in the race and drops massively in class after contesting class 2’s including the Northumberland plate last time out.
    Only Orsenfoolsies is 2lb below its last win mark (beat min Alemarat in that race receiving 11lb). Jockey P J McDonald is 4/11 (4 places) on the horse. Wouldn’t be a surprise to see significant improvement in both horses after some moderate runs in this 5 runner affair. Only 2 places to aim at so will chance a Dutch win bet on both at the odds.

    Leon 08/08/16 8:40 PM Reply


  • Dont beat yourself up josh , you have to learn by your mistakes to be good at anything, I backed both of hers in the race as she is not a trainer I have a lot of trust in,she is not for us punters

    muttley 08/08/16 8:59 PM Reply


    • Yep, I won’t be too much, but that was an error/mistake for a couple of reasons, and a bit of laziness that was punished! And I like to be public with such things on here- that is what I thought post race so I may as well post those views up here. Some will have rightfully asked post race, or pre race, why I didn’t tip/mention him! Glad you got both and yes I emphasise with that view point I think.

      Josh 08/08/16 9:03 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / Guys

    A busy week ahead but will try and have a post up when and where there is qualifiers….talking of which one today for Spencer / Cumani not an angle to make you rich and todays current price is unappealing currently 1.91 and support & resistant levels are bouncing between 1.9 & 2.0….was forecast at 2.88 so hopefully there will be a breakthrough the 2.0 barrier as the morning progresses….As I say not one to make you rich but they are now 7 out of 7 winners since 01/08/2015….the selection :

    6.30 Nottingham Vanity Queen

    2 others to mention at better odds are for the K.Ryan / K.Stott angle using a couple of filters this year they are 15 selections 7 winners 11 places after Saturdays loser details below….

    2.30 Thirsk Doria Road 21.0 currently on BF (First time out 2 year old)
    3.00 Thirsk Mercury 9.2 currently on BF has been trading over 10.5

    Thanks Tony / Mike for your comments yesterday hopefully we can keep the SR high and the winners rolling in all the best

    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 09/08/16 9:16 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve…hope all went well moving your Dad in.

      Steve, Does the HTR you use work retrospectively…only I was working on a promising system a year or so back, before I went in to hospital and lost track of the results all together…It’s a bit of an unusual and obscure one…..but I’m not pencil and papering that one again…it’d take to long. lol.
      Just curious if the HTR was capable of back checking.

      Tony Mc. 09/08/16 12:19 PM Reply


      • Hi Tony

        Yes move all went well thanks and he is in a much better place now……

        If you have the criteria tony i can run it through the database and it will collect all data & back results
        if you want to email me at steve.wiseman@orange.net I can send through a detailed analysis

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 09/08/16 6:12 PM Reply


        • Ok Steve, it’ll take me a couple of days to retrieve and send….It may be nothing or something.

          Tony Mc. 09/08/16 9:20 PM Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    I had a go at Midnight Rider last night however that was at 15/2 not at the current prices. I do think his best form is over 6f but guess we shall see. The one I thought was interesting at the prices in the 3:30 at Thirsk was Richter Scale. Gets fast ground for the first time since when he went close in a class 2 nursery. His maiden win was over course, distance and ground where he made all and hoping he does again here from a good draw (and some of the reasons you thought Krystallite would do well). I think he either didn’t lie the track or needed it LTO. Paul Mulrennan back on board is a plus and Dodds going well. 20/1 was too big (you can get 25/1 in places).

    Nick Mazur 09/08/16 10:21 AM Reply


    • Morning Nick,
      Yep I can see why you went with Midnight Rider at that price- and I suspect if I had looked last night he may have joined this one- he looks to have a decent enough chance if keeping tabs on the leader but I couldn’t touch 7/2. He did quicken well over 6f last summer so he clearly is just very versatile. Hopefully he leaves it too late here, for me at least!
      Yea can see why you would have a nibble on the 20s poke given his profile. I wasn’t totally convinced this 5f is what he wants now, looked a bit out paced over 6f LTO- but that could have been a lack of sharpness. Or as you say didn’t like the track. I wondered whether another run or two may also be needed but that is a bit guessy and the trainer is still a bit hot and cold. But then you have a big price for an unexposed one. Faces the elders for the first time so interesting how he goes- plenty of pace to aim at and maybe he will be the stalker to pick them all up! Will be interesting if they track or go forward with him. Trainers track form didn’t inspire loads of confidence either, general 7% handicap SR, 3/51 in C4 handicaps here. But then 3/19 over the distance! And 1/5 over distance/class handicaps. But then the horse has won here,which kind of makes that irrelevant to a point. Horse clearly handles it, just whether trainer uses it more as a fitness/getting in form playground with the handicappers.
      Anyway, I will watch with interest and clearly be annoyed I wasn’t on when he bolts up! Good Luck.

      Josh 09/08/16 11:11 AM Reply


      • Yeah I did look at trainer record but it improves to an acceptable level with the jockey on board and is actually 2/11 +11 this season so didn’t think it was a negative.

        Nick Mazur 09/08/16 1:03 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, I was tempted by Richter Scale. The filly is the only one of two [Captain Dunne the other] who is a C&D winner, but the downside is taking on older opponents for the 1st time and a % win from the stall draw 0f 7%….so…maybe a small bet.

      Tony Mc. 09/08/16 11:58 AM Reply


  • Regarding Bunce & Blue Sonic

    the general record of Miss L A Perratt is interesting in that she seems to send winners only to the few Scottish tracks or those just over the Border.
    In the last five years she has had 65/1238 winners on turf Flat racing with 3/87 of those in non-handicaps….
    62/1151 winners in Handicaps and only 3/121 when attacking over the Border….2 winners at Carlisle with the same horse and then the single winner at Newcastle, prior to the All Weather surface being laid.
    the three Scottish courses she has runners at, there is only 1 course that makes a profit (to BFSP)

    Hamilton 9/301 in Handicaps -233 pts Betfair
    Musselburgh 16/322 Hcaps -31 pts

    Ayr 43/407 in Handicaps + 79 points Profit

    Most winners, but not all, also appear to have a stable companion in the same race

    I have not taken the angle any further but some may want to “dig” further, all yours Josh

    Norman Stewart 09/08/16 11:39 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Norman…yep that ‘more than one runner in a race’ angle is an interesting one and while I may have dipped into it before, I have never gone too deep. I will add that to the list, and have a look at her runners. I would need to check the size of her string but my initial impression is that the same horses just keep taking it in turns, as you expect with handicappers.
      I am going to have to book out some ‘quality time’ in my HRB account soon.

      Josh 09/08/16 11:46 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh, i’ll send your cheque off tomorrow….

        Regarding Bunce,,,I missed it too….But somewhere I remember a discussion a few months back of the High rate of winners following up those failing as a tip…….not sure of the details. Except to say you obviously thought highly of them enough to tip them, so maybe something went amiss on the day.

        Tony Mc. 09/08/16 12:07 PM Reply


        • yep I had a look at tips on their next few starts and quite a few went on to win at some point. But, many didnt and it isn’t as simple as just backing them all on next few starts, but certainly keeping a close eye on them…
          I need to adopt the Gary P approach – he often tips a horse due to it being well handicapped,as a main reason amongst others. Well, if you thought something was well handicapped then,and they lost, they still are.
          With the sprint handicappers – Bunce was backed because he was well handicapped,had hit trouble in a recent run/better race- and this time was doing even more things differently – namely jockey change/return to Ayr. Sprints are games of fine margins and you need to be able to forgive horses a bad run I think- in context of them being in form before it/decent reasons to back it. Should have been a bet at 12s,regardless of what it did.

          Josh 09/08/16 12:27 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Just to take it slightly further….Ayr only handicaps, 5furs – 10 furs only, Classes 5 & 6 only create a break-even ISP set of figures but a mini-angle to BFSP of +93 points

        She has had good priced winners in the past but it’s all 5 years or more since a decent non-handicap winner went in and she has won at York, but almost last century stuff so I guess restricting an idea to a single Scottish track with limited runners could go a little way to obtaining a profit

        Norman 09/08/16 12:08 PM Reply


        • Norman/Josh – I once read a suggestion that Linda and Jim Goldie were part of the Scottish Raffia and would weave and duck so that only one of their runners would win, where they had runners in the same race.
          I dismissed it as the ramblings of a basket case.
          However you may be able to get a handle on it?

          Chris 09/08/16 1:02 PM Reply


          • Hi Chris

            The idea is not a completely rambling idea, in fact it’s a very good point

            I didn’t open up the parameters to provide these numbers so the criteria is just the filters I used to dig into the Perratt @ Ayr results

            So at Ayr….Linda Perratt has had 30 winners over the 5 years I analysed….of these 30 winners, Jim Goldie provided runners in opposition 28 times against her winner…..93% of the races

            Jim Goldie has had 31 winners using the same filters…..he had opposition from Perratt in 24 of those races…..77% of races

            Norman 09/08/16 6:27 PM Reply


    • Hi Norman. FYI I have spoken to someone who knows one of the owners and before you say “not that old chestnut” it is totally reliable this animal needs 6f and produced as late as possible and cannot see any daylight till then. Hence the run yesterday…

      fingers 09/08/16 8:00 PM Reply


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