Steve’s Systems/Strategies

Steve Wiseman,regular blog contributor, has kindly shared the various systems and strategies that he has discussed in the comments in recent days/weeks. I thought it would be helpful to put them all in one post for your convenience.

A few of my systems, and arguably my approach, may need some work and I find Steve’s approach fascinating – plenty there for me to take away, especially the flexibility and monitoring. There are a few interesting angles that are producing winners as I write (another for Ruth Carr has just gone in at Musselburgh).

So, do with these as you please. If you have a HorseRaceBase account or similar system building software, then add them in. Steve has been posting up qualifiers but I am sure there will be days he has off/can’t post.

Anyway, below follows what Steve has sent me

***

 

Hi Josh

Please find below details of strategies highlighted

 

Ruth Carr 5 year olds

Jockey – James Sullivan,

Tracks – Ayr, Carlisle, Catterick, Musselburgh, Redcar, Southwell & Wetherby

Horse Age – Exactly 5

Year – 2016 only

Odds – up to 8/1 SP

 

17 bets 8 winners 11 places SR 47.06%, +27.2 SP

 

Keith Dalgleish / Philip Makin

Tracks – NOT Ascot & Wolverhampton

Race Distance – Between 1m 1f & 1m 2f

Horse Age – between 3 and 6

Year – 2016 only

 

27 bets 13 winners 17 places SR 48.15% +41.06 SP

 

(Please note There is a similar strategy for this but I’ve adjusted the original criteria of this system to suit what is happening in 2016 i:e not restricting it to GD / FM, using a *traffic light approach I’ll explain at the end )

 

Jamie Spencer / Luca Cumani

Race Class – 3, 4, 5 & 6 only

Odds up to 4/1

 

55 bets 30 winners 42 places SR 54.55% +17.77 SP

 

 (I’ve included this one which dates back to 2003 – 2004 for 2 reasons its high strike rate and since 01/08/2015 they are 7 runners 7 winners including 1 yesterday, I’m sure the profits can be improved with taking early prices as these are well backed close to the off, Yesterday for example I was on at 3.05 but BFSP was 2.38)

 

Josephine Gordon

Trainers – John Berry, Hugo Palmer & Malcolm Saunders

Odds – Up to 8/1 SP

Year – 2016 only

 

27 bets 13 winners 19 places SR 48.15% +47.3 SP

 

(The first of the apprentice angles again this one I’ll be using a *traffic light approach every month to see how its evolving as it could change quickly as other trainers want to use her)

 

Adam Mcnamara

Trainers – P J Mcbride & J J Quinn

Year – 2016

 

13 bets 7 winners 8 places SR 53.85% +34.25 SP

 

(As above a great young talent and I have no doubt that other trainers will be using him to success)

 

P J Mcbride (trainer)

Tracks – Beverley, Carlisle, Chelmsford City, Redcar, Warwick, Wolverhampton, Yarmouth & York.

Year – 2012 to date

Jockeys Claim – 5lb & 7lb

 

44 bets 15 winners 23 places SR 34.09% +95.88 SP

 

(With winners at 201 & 50/1 included Mr Mcbride clearly likes using good apprentices on his live ones…The first time out 2 year old yesterday touched 150/1 in the morning before going off at 36.6 on BF and without that slow break may well have won maybe?)

 

George Wood (7lb Claimer)

Year – 2016 only

Class – 6 only

Trainers – D E Cantillon, P Charalambous, B D Leavy, G L Moore, H Morrison &

Dr J D Scargill

 

11 bets 6 winners 8 places SR 54.55% +32.48 SP

 

(Just looked at this yesterday and even more relevant than the other apprentices other trainers will be using him for success I will explain the *traffic light process below)

 ***

The traffic light method I have mentioned throughout is a system where I can apply common sense but also incorporate a business plan. So my approach is look at something that’s working or has been working for a period of time (common sense) and then apply this for the current period either 1 month, 3 month, or 6 month. For example:

The Spencer / Cumani combo has worked for a number of years at over a 50% SR but I would want to keep reviewing this to see if this is still the same

now so I would apply a traffic light method that green would be 6 months, amber would be 3 and red would be 1. So for the example Spencer / Cumani it has been working for a long period of time I would then apply a green status and a date to check on its progress 6 months in advance. If after 6 months it has dropped below its normal standard I would apply an amber status to check again in 3 months and if it still is under performing I would then apply a red status to check again in 1 month…If it is still then under performing I would drop the strategy from the portfolio but keep the red status to check back every month to see if it turns round again. Also with this approach it allows me to check if the angle has changed to profit in another area like the Dalgleish / Makin one where a small change has kept the SR and profits high.

 

With the new strategies i:e the apprentices  I have put these straight on to a red status to check their progress every month as undoubtedly these will move in different directions and I want to be able to quickly latch on to these profit streams as they do.

To make a profit I would suggest using what I have mentioned  before I:e a bank of say £1000 staking at 2% of the rolling total of the portfolio.

I have currently 36 strategies and believe the portfolio approach is the way to go so when an angle is going through a cold spell the others will be holding it up until it swings around again. An example of one Is an angle I have for George Baker he had a period where he had 22 losers in a row so as a one off strategy there is no doubt this would lose confidence in the user but his overall SR is 30.42% and since 2008 using the staking plan above this would have grown to £38,813.67…I have much better examples but this one shows they are worth sticking with long term if passing the traffic light method.

Hope this info helps Josh love your work and more importantly to me your integrity, honesty and willingness for everyone to succeed, I would like to think I’m of the same Ilk and keep the great work going

Cheers

Steve

***

Thanks Steve (and I didn’t pay him to say that last bit!)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Steve thanks for your write up very interested in your angles and the traffic light explanation
    just shows no matter what your age you can still learn off you younger lads 🙂
    Bill

    Bill Hawksworth 05/08/16 3:56 PM Reply


    • Hi Bill

      Haha not so young 47 as I speak….but thanks glad you like the approach and its a blog like this which will help us all win in the long run cheers Steve

      Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 4:33 PM Reply


  • As I’m in commenting mode today I thought I would comment on this post and ask Josh’s and his readers a general question. Firstly this approach to system betting looks great, well thought out and interesting stats. However what I have found difficult over the years is success and then being restricted leading to staking problems. Lots of tipsters, and now bloggers (like Josh) publish and sell systems which show great results over 5+ years and state what you could win with various stakes. Some stating and occasionally boasting of winnings running into tens of thousands. Now I have had my most successful couple of years recently and have found myself restricted on line with nearly every well known bookie. I have probably won a couple of thousand,(somewhere between 2 and 4k, my record keeping is quite loose) in total, that’s all bookmakers together not each. So I suspect anyone who has the same success or better with a system approach will be restricted too. It is one of the big reasons why I don’t pay for tips. 1. I probably wont get on at prices or with BOG. 2. When you subtract costs profit can be little or even a loss depending on success. I know Betfair is an option but you often cant get the stake on you want at the price and that’s not including commission costs. I guess what I am trying to find out is? Is everyone lying about the success they have? Are they loosing overall with other unpublished bets? Or are the bookies just picking on me??

    jim 05/08/16 4:26 PM Reply


    • Thanks for the systems Steve and I like the traffic light approach, I will try to apply that to my systems. Think I’ve managed to collect and create 50+ along with 100+ monthly systems lol. And Jim they could be picking on you or you might be making them pick on you? I always spread my big bets around several accounts which helps. I know some guys who take thousands from the bookies and don’t get restricted and some who only manage a few bob and get shut down. These bookies are crooks for sure.

      James b 05/08/16 9:19 PM Reply


    • Hi Jim,
      sorry for the delay. You are right to be skeptical and I have no doubt that some ‘marketers’ push dodgy/unrealistic figures.
      I try and be as open and honest as I can with how I record everything. My results are recorded to a BOG price, that has to be available with two main bookies for a good length of time that I would deem reasonable. And I record tips to BFSP.
      Being restricted/not getting on is one of our modern day problems and there is no easy solution. All you can do yourself if track performance to odds/amounts that you can get on, and see if anything is worth following from there on in.

      Josh 09/08/16 11:17 AM Reply


  • Great read, guys. I’ve no HRB account so won’t be following systematically, but will often take note of the comment section (thanks for Kylla Instinct the other day, Steve).
    Paul

    Paul 05/08/16 10:23 PM Reply


  • Absolutely fantastic read. Really appreciate you sharing the info. Top man Steve.

    John Wilson 06/08/16 10:50 AM Reply


  • Hi Steve/Josh….I love this approach….as I mentioned to Steve a couple of days ago…I’ve used systems for many a year…you can guess my age by the fact I still use paper and pencil lol…but the most salient point with sytem’s that I have found is they DO alter…..circumstances dictate change of itself. So you have to be very aware of change…A simple example was many years ago Dandy Nicholls had a female jockey ******8 fantastic % wins……They had a private fall out and the system fell away to nothing. It’s the small things that alter or break a system, so it is imperative that you be aware of the small changes /events/ occurences……Systems rely on habit.
    I wish I could master HRB or something similar, I can’t, so I rely on what has served me well for years….my paper and pencil lol.
    I had a system which won me £2900 to £10 stakes over 2 years….it’s slipped badly. I know something is wrong that I’m not seeing, so I have dropped it
    Something has changed….So with Systems you have to be prepared to drop it when it’s served it’s purpose.
    Steve is excellent in his approach….I may look down at him from age, but I look up to him as a 100% good guy, always willing to share his knowledge.

    Tony Mc. 08/08/16 12:46 AM Reply


  • Hi Steve, I only came across your Blog today 18th August.
    Avery interesting piece and also a winner as well today.
    I know you say you have 30+ strategies in your portfolio, which is probably the way to go.
    I just wondered if you could recommend an all year round strategy, that is profitable.
    If you wish to email me direct, that’s fine.
    Do you run a regular blog somewhere.
    Anyway, thanks again for the above post.
    Colin

    colin smalley 18/08/16 7:38 PM Reply


  • Hi Steve/Josh
    I agree with your comments about Adam Mcnamara, he made me some serious money at the weekend when riding the Ebor winner Heartbreak City for Tony Martin, I think his popularity will have gone up since that win.The ease in which he won, imo he would have won without his claim.

    Richard 22/08/16 2:11 PM Reply


  • Great post Steve – really interesting.

    I’m just wondering though if there is back-fitting going on with some of the systems – eg: not including Ascot and Wolves in the Keith Dalgleish/Philip Makin one. Would there be a logical reason for not including those courses? Wolves in the past maybe as it was the all-weather track closest to the yard base, (albeit a long way away). Not now though since Newcastle was changed to a/w surface. The track may have been used for horses to gain a/w experience, rather than being ready to win? Ascot has very competitive racing and of course the glamorous Royal and Champions Day meetings, where the yard’s owners may like to have a runner, regardless of the horse’s chances. But what about the other meetings at Ascot? A bigger day out than the Ebor festival?, Chester festival? Derby day?, etc.
    Your traffic lights system makes perfect sense though, as you are monitoring the systems on a regular basis.

    With the apprentice systems, when do you start a system up? When the jockey has had a couple of winners on the trot, when the Racing Post are alerted to his/her talents, or something else?

    I am also thinking the simpler and more logical the system, the more likely it is to stand the test of time. Your Luca Cumani/Jamie Spencer system is a good example of this. It is simple with only a few criteria and these criteria make sense. Luca Cumani has a very good reputation in the game and gets plenty of good horses. Therefore, when he runs them in a lesser grade, and are well fancied by the yard then they are likely to run well – because they may well have more ability than their rivals on the day. Jamie Spencer being on board in these situations is another pointer to their chances – despite some punters hating him, he is a rider with plenty of talent and when Luca is looking to win, he is likely to try a top-class jockey with whom he has a good relationship.

    One other point to add to my long-winded post, I don;t like using SP prices in a system. In my view, a system is used in preference to reading the form when you are looking for a mechanistic, quick to apply way of betting. You need to be able to predict the factors involved on the morning of the race rather than waiting until just before the race before placing each bet. SP’s can only be predicted in advance to a limited degree, (especially in maidens and low-grade handicaps), so you may well not be able to run the system properly. The same applies with systems that include ground conditions in their criteria.
    I realise this comment is contradicting my comments upon the long-term success of a system. However, maybe the Cumani/Spencer system would produce profits without including SP? It would also produce more qualifies which may well lead to greater profits, even with a lower strike-rate?

    Matt 20/11/16 10:21 AM Reply


  • hi steve
    i like reading your statements/analysis
    do you have any new systems to post for 2017
    i know the flat has just started
    thanks russ

    russ 30/04/17 8:31 PM Reply


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