FREE DAILY POST: 05/08/15 (COMPLETE)

You can ready my Weekly Diary post, with some thoughts on the ‘gamble’ – Maybe I am naive but I can’t see what all the fuss is about – as punters, all three winners were far from impossible to find… you can read that HERE>>>

 

The ‘stats/angle’ horse was disappointing yesterday – he was covered in sweat before the race and pulled hard early and looked very awkward- unsure if something was physically wrong. Anyway, that section continues to bob up and down as I have fluctuated between 0-24 points since it stated at the back end of May. Chaplin Bay was the winner of that Sandown race to rub salt into the gaping wound…. he entered the tracker at Ponte having ran very well given he was held up and had to come wide- highlighted in my sprint notes I think. He suffered the same NTO at Chester. I didn’t see much of an excuse at Musselburgh but maybe the track didn’t suit. Either way he won this cosily I think- he either doesn’t like getting his head in front and if so the jockey was superb, cajoling him to lead- or they fancy winning another handicap soon and didn’t want to win by too much. It was impressive again as he was held up and it wasn’t a frantic pace – he did well to close as he did and win. If only I had kept the faith on his 3rd run after entering the note book. The stiff finish clearly suited. Damn.

My tracking skills/following up clearly needs work. I missed A J Cook who won at 10s on next start after backing him for 3rd at 25/1. Hoof It entered the tracker early in the season after an eye-catching run at York. I haven’t tipped him up on either of his two wins this season. We can add Chaplin Bay to that list. Fair to say I could do better on that front! Work to do.

 

***

TIPS

None

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total… +14.5 points)

5.35 – Newmarket – Bequia – 1 point win – 10/1 (SB/BV/WH) 9/1 (general) 2nd*

*no excuses there, a decent run, just bumping into one better on the day. Took a little while to learn what the game was all about but certainly out-ran her odds. For a brief moment it looked exciting but sadly the leader kept finding!

With no form to go on in this maiden, this one is certainly all about the stats. Stats that should continue to pay over time and I am hoping so today. M Meade likes a first time out 2 year old winner- 3/12,6 places in the last year. He is 3/6, 5 places at the Newmarket tracks with such runners. 2/5, 3 places in all maiden races at the July course in the last 730 days. He is also in form which helps – 2/7, 4 places in the last 14 days. The jockey booking intrigued me- on closer inspection these two are 3/9, 4 places when teaming up, so no concerns on that front. This horse is related to plenty of decent speedy types and a few who won as 2 years olds. The market may well guide, or it may not- he has had some big priced 1st time 2 year olds go in. The question is the opposition – there are a few who are having second runs after decent enough maiden runs. They may be hard to beat but this ‘could be anything’ type has plenty going for her on paper and at 10s I couldn’t resist.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainers

Fahey (any odds)

2.00 Muss – Geego- UP

3.30 Muss – Mustique- 2nd

7.20 Hayd- Our Boy John / Springwood

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

(quick Q… any backers of these know if the two winners yesterday.. 7/1 7/2 SP were bigger evening before/morning. I didn’t look until lunchtime…)

3.30 Muss – Mustique (any odds) 2nd

4.30 Muss – Gabrial The Terror UP

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

8.20 Newmarket

Merhoob – 1 point win – 15/2 (PP/BetfS) 7/1 (general) UP (+5.375 points on race)

Mehronissa – 1 point win – 8/1 (Boyle/Coral) 15/2 (Lad) 7/1 (general) WON 5/1 (15/2 declared, +6.375 points after 15p R4)

Well a case could be made for nearly all of them in this I think – but these races are getting like 3m+ handicap chases where I just can’t help myself! I think the pace may set it up for a closer here- well I am taking that chance. Solar Flair and Guishan both like to get on with it, there are others who have led and a few who like to push the pace. I may have that wrong -being near the front has been the place to be at this track this season – but I am hoping that one of these two can pick up the pieces on the climb to the line.

Merhoob – was an eye-catcher LTO at Ascot – he dwelt a bit, hit some traffic at the wrong time, and possibly came from the wrong side of the track. That was a big field, decent enough C3 handicap and I want to back him here. Ms Gordon gets the leg up which is no bad thing and she may eek out more here. If he can keep tabs in the first part of the race he shouldn’t be too far away. Like most in this race he has open to progress on the turf and all conditions look fine for a good run.

Mehronissa- the trainer is in decent form and this one is also open to progress, with some decent form in the book. I find it interesting that Freddy T is back on, arguably her ‘regular’ pilot who has ridden her for the last three rides. She won well at the back end of last season and on reappearance this season. She then ran well in a decent C2 at York where I think Jamie Spencer miss judged the pace (he does that, it’s how he rides straight tracks/sprints-likes to settle them,get them breathing and get them finishing- you pays your money and take your chance- I am a big fan- he is also one of the best around from the front.) He was closing all the way to the line, the winner having led all the way.  They were two progressive 3 year olds in front of her also. In a small field race LTO, maybe on softer than ideal ground, she pulled too hard and was never going to get home. Freddy T has ridden her closer to the pace when riding her here, and hopefully he does the same again. She will like what I think will be a frantic pace and still has more to come. The break is a bit odd but at 7s not quite enough to put me off. I would just be guessing.

I won’t go into the others- you can make a case for plenty I won’t be shocked if another one wins. Most have time on their side, a few are doing a few things different. I think the ground may be too firm for a few. We shall see.

 

4.10 Brighton – looks interesting enough and VINCENTI  WON goes for the in form Ron Harris team, 5/1. He was an eye-catcher LTO when held up out the back in a race won by the front runner. He had to switch wide around the outside and ran well all things considered. He is well handicapped on old form and is a CD winner. I have two concerns, in context of price- one being the ground. Fast is ok but he is better with cut. And also I have no idea where the pace is coming from here- there are no front runners in the race- a few who race handy, but I don’t know who will go on and of this will be run to suit. He can’t afford a slow start here and needs one of his more prominent rides. Maybe the lack of pace, on this ground,will help him keep tabs easier. I am torn. I won’t tip him but may throw 1/4 point or something at him to see. The other Harris runner at 16s will probably go in!! It looks a tricky contest. 

Well, that was bitter sweet! What didn’t I predict/think about… that canny Ron Harris would use his other runner, same owner, to ensure this was run at a decent gallop to set it up for his closer!! Damn. I should have had more confidence, I hope some of you were not put off by my excruciating fence sitting! At least the race reading skills/spotting eye catchers etc is getting better. 6 points that got away maybe – yes I can hear the hindsight klaxon. 

That is all for this section today.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

I have yet to watch any racing from yesterday but a nice 16/1 winner for this section at Yarmouth. Glad to see some of you backed him. Around the houses today with 3 horses/trainers from 3 different tracks…

5.10 Brighton – Ask The Guru (14) 13/2- 3rd 5/1

7.10 Newmarket – Pure Vanity – (14,30,C1) 12/1 (handicap debut,hood,after a break,trainer jockey 3/12,8p in turf handicaps…) UP

8.30 Haydock – Kajaki (14)-9/2 –  pace is interesting, *should* get an uncontested lead. WON 11/2

***

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

47 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    I got on Himalyan Queen thanks via your “in form” angle. 16/1

    I have a nice short priced double if anyone is interested reliable source.
    Ex Patriot…….8.35 Leo
    Blairmayne….5.15 Leo

    Tomorrow DAWN MISSILE.

    Mike Dennis 04/08/16 4:32 PM Reply


    • Ah great to hear Mike,I was hoping someone may have had a nibble at that price! Appears as though that section could be a decent ‘way in’ and worth pursuing for now. Does throw up some decent priced winners/placed horses. GL with your double.

      Josh 04/08/16 4:45 PM Reply


      • I got 17s at betfair Josh….but I’m cursing as I was
        sure I done Lincoln Rocks…I always do…but I was wrong.
        Still I had a few winners so no complaints.
        Although once again I think a jockey lost you another winner.
        Haraz had the beating of Worlds his Oyster…did you watch the race.
        Money only leant.
        Cheers Josh.

        Tony Mc. 04/08/16 7:51 PM Reply


  • I apologise for the two Gary Moore horses I gave at Brighton. Perhaps he is not out of his slump and I have been misled? I hope that you did not lose too much on them? I did take a hit and am licking my wounds.

    Martin Colwell 04/08/16 7:18 PM Reply


    • Hi martin…no worries lad..when a trainer has been of a bit I always have reduced bets….as with my system bets at the moment, but with other winners around…no real harm was done. It would be a dry column if we all held back because we weren’t sure….Nothing as you know in racing is cast in stone…you have the courage like others to raise your head above the parapet…..so no apologies needed as far as I’m concerned. I say ‘good on you’.

      Tony Mc. 04/08/16 7:42 PM Reply


  • Just watched my Chaplin bay system bet go in……that’s 6 winners today 3 were yours Josh..Steve had 2 and my system bet.

    Tony Mc. 04/08/16 8:08 PM Reply


    • hi. was on chaplin bay. Does anyone have an angle on kevin ryan/kevin scott combo.I think he has just returned back to kevin ryan and has been riding few winners for him.

      Daniel 04/08/16 9:52 PM Reply


      • Hi Daniel I’m guessing you mean Kevin Stott?

        His overall record for Ryan is 163 rides 25 winners at 15.34% -22.75 to SP

        Back in 2013 & 2014 he had 113 rides 18 winners at around 14.50% he was 0 from 3 in 2015
        but as you say he is back riding for him this year and has improved his SR 27 rides 7 wins 14 places at 25.93% +16.88

        If we break this down by track i:e Beverley, Musselburgh, Pontefract Redcar & Thirsk the figures are as follows: 14 rides 7 wins 11 places +29.88 to SP a nice little current niche well spotted Daniel

        Hope this helps

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 1:00 AM Reply


        • Hi Steve. Meant Kevin stott. Thanks for your time in looking into that. I see he is jocked up already for a few tomorrow. Would have a look much later today.

          Thanks

          Daniel

          daniel 05/08/16 7:00 AM Reply


        • Wow!..good stuff this Steve….I’m still a pencil & paper man, so I can’t run the gamut as quick as you can….but I love these bits of info. Cheers mate.

          Tony Mc. 05/08/16 12:43 PM Reply


          • Hi Tony

            Ah I have to give full credit to HRB without that website & database this just wouldn’t be possible it really is the holy grail for someone like me and can access what i love to do in minutes happy to share

            Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 1:12 PM Reply


            • Don’t know that one Steve…is it easy to use… I’m technically challenged….lol.

              Tony Mc. 05/08/16 3:51 PM Reply


    • Well done Tony with Chaplins Bay missed that one with being at my local pool night sorting the team out but a 6-4 win finished the day off well…I concur with your response to Martin….Its everyones input that makes it an excellent blog, What with Josh’s expertise in depth breakdown & analysis of races everyday which is a mighty hard thing to do and the rest of us having a view or a particular researched angle that we share gives us that wider choice that we can follow or cherry pick from. Its certainly not an easy game and when one goes through a dry spell (or should I say cold spell) another will be banging the winners in so all is well..

      As for G L Moore and the winner he had yesterday I could’nt help but notice that he used another young and upcoming apprentice George Wood who still has his full 7lb claim and Ed Walker done the same today at Newcastle with a well fancied runner only this time George misjudged the pace and come too late…So I had a look and delved a bit deeper into his record:

      So far he has had 168 rides with 15 winners at 8.93% his rides have been well spread amongst many trainers with J Fanshawe & B Millman using him the most with around 43 rides between them..Breaking it down a bit further if we look at 6 trainers D E Cantillon, P Charalambous, BD Leavy, GL Moore, H Morrison & Dr J D Scargill in Class 6 races only we have the following

      11 rides 6 winners 8 places which included 2 at 11.00 & 1 at 13.00 so we have a nice basis to work from.

      I think with George its one that will evolve over the coming months as plenty of trainers will want to use him and that claim so i will revisit this one every month to see if it continue’s this way and put up the qualifiers as they come in for the above….Ps It’ll not be long before we start using a motorised wheelbarrow lol

      Cheers Steve

      Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 12:39 AM Reply


  • My EW fancy today is Playtothewhistle 3.00 Muss – I say EW as I think he may need the race but there’s a big note at the top of my Musselburgh file saying: ‘Lookout for good Southwell AW form,’ well Bryan Smart’s runner is a dual winner on that front from his only 15 runs. Stable stats for 4yo’s+ 7/38 18% +18 lsp & Jock/Trainer stats good too. He is rated 10lb higher on the AW & 14-16/s generally.

    Andy Silvers 05/08/16 10:23 AM Reply


    • Good bet Andy, top work there. Good race all round for readers comments there!

      Josh 05/08/16 3:06 PM Reply


  • Andy, just had wee ew on PTTW, had a win already on Almuhalab a Carr angle following her 5yo with sullivan aboard and at Muss. Good luck tho.

    Mike

    Mike Dennis 05/08/16 10:49 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike

      Sorry I just noticed you had already flagged up Almuhalab Good luck with PTTW too

      Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 11:12 AM Reply


      • You gents are getting quite good at this 🙂 Well done.

        Josh 05/08/16 3:07 PM Reply


        • Buggar, missed the Rev Forecast. Ah well not greedy.

          Mike

          Mike Dennis 05/08/16 3:21 PM Reply


          • I missed the straight forecast last night Mike wit Chaplins bay and Sangeroo….lol.

            Tony Mc. 05/08/16 3:26 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, will you be providing a preview / analysis for Haydock tomorrow at all?? Cheers

    Bradders 05/08/16 10:51 AM Reply


    • Hi Bradders…
      I will look at the 4.45 and 5.15 in the ‘test zone’ – the other races I wouldn’t normally play in but as you have asked I don’t mind having a flick through- highlighting any stats/pace/trainer angles etc – see what stands out – albeit that approach can be very hit and miss when rushed… are you going? There may be the odd system bet there also.
      I doubt I will be playing too much at Ascot given how the jockeys etc and that is an event to enjoy without betting too much I think. And I am off to Newmarket so will give that card a good look also.

      Josh 05/08/16 10:56 AM Reply


      • Cheers Josh,

        Yeah there’s a bit of an outing from work, good minibus full of us so with the weather should be hopefully a good day! Fancying a go at Red Box in the 3.10, but like you say it’s probably a day to enjoy really more than any real serious racing?!

        Thanks
        Bradders

        Bradders 05/08/16 3:22 PM Reply


        • Yea I will have a look – ah no I meant the Ascot Shegar Cup card is one to tread with slight caution – just because many jockeys may not know the horses, the track that well, etc etc. Another level of complication, albeit I may have a browse at the dash. Everyone is different when going to the races- I give myself a budget and have some fun – looks a decent enough card with decent ground.

          Josh 05/08/16 3:33 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / Guys

    I like the look of the stats for Bequia Josh and the odds are big considering……

    I have a qualifier for the Ruth Carr 5 year olds today

    3.00 Musselburgh Almuhalab currently trading at 5.4 (was as big as 7.8)

    This strategy is going well for 2016 – 17 bets 8 winners 11 places SR 47.06%
    Hopefully this can add some more today

    Good Luck All

    Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 10:57 AM Reply


    • Good luck Steve, remind me of that angle again?

      If you wouldn’t mind adding them all to a word doc or something, or sending over the various ones you have posted up in an email (info@racingtoprofit.co.uk) I can add a post in the Free Reports Systems tab for future reference – if you don’t mind of course- but you have shared a few crackers!

      Josh 05/08/16 11:02 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Yes I’ll pop them in a word document and send them over….was really encouraged with the 2 x Adam Mcnamara rides yesterday for P J Mcbride super ride on Kylla Instinct… trying to be ahead of the books before they cotton on hopefully we can do the same with George Wood…

        Cheers Steve

        Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 11:18 AM Reply


        • Cheers Steve- yep agree, getting ahead of the curve is important and the claimer angle looks to be a good one, long term- a decent topic to do a hefty research piece on I think- or some sort of article anyway – there will be trainers who use them to good effect, more than others- and I suspect that kind of thing goes under the radar more. You then can judge whether the jockey is any good etc.

          Josh 05/08/16 11:23 AM Reply


          • I’ve sent over the email Josh hopefully not too long winded lol

            Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 1:21 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I have been following a horse called KILBAHA LADY & it runs today in the 2.00 at mussel borough,could pop up at a decent price.

    Dave Parsons 05/08/16 11:17 AM Reply


    • Hi Dave, thanks for the pointer, I will have a look. Any particular reason you have been following this one?

      Josh 05/08/16 11:21 AM Reply


      • Yes,I watch racing replays virtually every day & whilst it does not happen everyday now & again i see a definate ploy to get a horse beaten (with in the rules of racing that it).
        If you watch it,s last race you will see what i mean.

        Dave

        Dave Parsons 05/08/16 11:26 AM Reply


        • Interesting.. yep I have just watched…I have a lot to learn race reading wise I think,and jockeyship maybe…the ride looks odd, playing around with the reigns plenty, and not really ‘asking’ with the arms at all- that is what I have spotted anyway! The rest of it looks fine – in sense drawn a bit wide, drops in for cover, breeding suggests further would help and may have been a bit outpaced- still inexperienced and once got organised did flash home. So, the step up should help today and a jockey change. The ride/use of arms flailing around looked odd to me. Big drop in class today also.
          Interested what you more experienced race replay watching eyes picked up? A fascinating area!

          Josh 05/08/16 11:52 AM Reply


    • Hi Dave…regarding your Kilbaha Lady….Jockeys can do your head in…but it’s a strange ploy to flash through to 2nd, because they incurred a 3lb rise in weight. So their either supremely confident or naieve.
      I agree about the jockeys riding skills, or orders.

      Tony Mc. 05/08/16 12:39 PM Reply


  • Another System bet today….43% Tipperary..4.25
    HARVEY SPECTER….currently 9/2 Betfair and SHAMAR 13/2 bet 365 & Betfair.
    Very unusual to have multiple bets in this system.
    best of luck all.

    Tony Mc. 05/08/16 11:58 AM Reply


    • Harvey Specter just lost in a photo finish….put it in your tracker though…and Shamar who ran really well from a terrible draw…that’ll win too.

      Tony Mc. 05/08/16 4:34 PM Reply


      • Yes unlucky with Harvey Tony ran well

        steve wiseman 05/08/16 5:11 PM Reply


  • Earlier I put up DAWN MISSILE for today the same source has just gave me DORRETTO 2.20 Ascot on Sat. Nice double both around 11/2.
    GL

    Mike

    Mike Dennis 05/08/16 3:26 PM Reply


    • Sorry………DURETTO

      Mike Dennis 05/08/16 4:00 PM Reply


  • Well done with Vincenti Josh….Looked like a plan that worked perfectly with his other runner setting a strong pace and Vincenti coming through nicely great stuff!

    Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 4:17 PM Reply


    • yep – if only I had tipped the bloody thing… just posted the same thoughts- I did not think about that pace scenario, idiotically. A perfect plan executed. All the gaps came, pace collapsed, finished like a train. Still, hopefully a few had some change on.

      Josh 05/08/16 4:20 PM Reply


  • Great shout Josh……Vincenti…..let the good times roll. lol.

    Tony Mc 05/08/16 4:20 PM Reply


  • Hi guys sorry it’s a late post again!
    But must pass this on……
    7.10 new CAT ROYAL. Apparently doing some real nice work at home and fancy his chance tonight. She love’s a winner at Newmarket. I did manage 40s but still nice price.

    Jarrod Holmes 05/08/16 5:02 PM Reply


  • Well Josh Bequia definitely one for the tracker that was a gentle learning ride if there ever was one held up out the back and just allowed to run on with minimal pressure was on at 4.2 in the place market so still a nice profit

    Cheers Steve

    Steve Wiseman 05/08/16 5:41 PM Reply


    • Yep- no problems there at all- with those you just hope they are good enough to coast into it and know their job – she definitely learnt on the job there for the first half of the race before the penny started to drop. If I owned one like that I would be very angry with the jockey if they battered them about too much – no problem with a ride like that for one having their first start. That is the nature of those races and the journey those horses are on. She took some time to get organised. Decent enough. We move on. Next time!

      Josh 05/08/16 5:50 PM Reply


      • Yes I agree looks like she will improve tons for that run.

        steve wiseman 05/08/16 5:56 PM Reply


  • Storming stuff Josh….chuffed last 2 in and hosed.

    Tony Mc. 05/08/16 8:34 PM Reply


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