FREE DAILY POST: 04/08/16 (COMPLETE)

 

SUMMARY: One tip in the 7.55 Sandown, some system qualifiers, and some trainer ‘in form’ pointers for Yarmouth. That is all for today. 

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TO NOTE: I have had a look ahead to Saturday for trends purposes but I am reluctant to get involved in the Shergar Cup. There are a couple of decent sprint handicaps and I may have a look at them- but there is the jockey issue which may be more important on this day than most others, esp jockeys not knowing the horses etc etc. Anyway, I will glance at them Friday/Saturday and we shall see.

I am spending most of Thursday afternoon on a train back to Suffolk. I will be there for most of August I think, including a trip to Newmarket on Saturday. Due to plans Thursday evening I suspect Friday’s post will be up in the morning, albeit I will add a post for you to comment on etc.

***

Urgh- ‘carnage’ on Wednesday. No hiding that. The term piss poor comes to mind but that is how it goes sometimes – well, a lot of the time in truth. Lending 6 points back to the bookies is never a pleasant feeling, especially when you don’t get much of a run for your money at the business end. We move on, swiftly, while trying to learn the odd lesson… (I should add, I was bereft of ideas for a ‘Weekly Diary’ this week but then there was a gamble landed in Ireland and if I have the time that is worth some reflection/opinion)

My day was semi rescued by a winner for Steve’s ‘Josephine Gordon’ angles which produced a nice 7/1 winner. The comments are really worth a read on most days and I see he has a couple for tomorrow on a different angle already…

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TIPS

None.

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total… +15.5 points)

7.55 Sandown –

Great Fun – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP

Sandown looks predictable enough on the weather front – good ground at the moment with the odd possible shower but likely to dry out leading up to racing. So, hopefully it remains good. This horse is making his first start for the trainer and I found it interesting that in the last year he has run 5 such ‘cast offs’ from other yards, 2 have won, a further one has placed. He has only sent 6 horses to Sandown in the last 5 years, one winning. The booking of SDS also caught the eye. On further inspection he has only ever ridden for the trainer three times with stats off – 1/3, 2 places. The horse… well this is only his 8th career start, having won a maiden for Brian Meehan last year at 16s over 7f (that time when Meehan still won maidens!!) He was consistent after that without pulling up too many trees and he hasn’t ever ran a really bad race. There is also some stamina in his blood and this stiff finish may suit him. A change of scenery and training regime may also bring out more- it needs to obviously. The trainer has only had 6 runners in the last 30 days but 2 have placed. Finally – this is a weak enough race, 6/1 the field which says it all. There are no stand out horses in this. So, all in all, at 9s that was enough to spark my interest.

Haydock- the rain is set in until lunch time apparently and I am totally guessing there at this moment in time, so will leave that card.

That is all for this section today.

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

None.

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS 

Haydock (12/1<)

3.20- Bop It UP

3.50 – Ingleby Hollow NR

4.20 – Lincoln Rocks – WON 8/1

4.50 – Haraz – 2nd

*

4.30 Brighton – African Showgirl (any odds) WON 7/2

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None. The 3.20 Haydock looked like a decent race to get stuck into but the weather is tempering my enthusiasm. According to BHA report the ground is good to firm/firm in places at the moment (so, Heavy for Haydock! 🙂 ) They had rain yesterday and have had some this morning apparently, and it is set in until lunchtime.  I am simply guessing at this stage as to what the ground may be – as you are at Haydock in general really- and I don’t wish to waste 60-90 mins looking when it may all go out the window. So, i will leave it. A day off.

 

TRAINERS IN FORM 

Let’s head to Yarmouth for some ‘in form’ trainers. These are a pointer/starting point where I highlight races where 1 or 2 trainers only are ‘in form’ according to the Geegeez stats (’14’ – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20%+ win SR OR 51%+ place SR, ’30’ 10+ runs last 30 days, 20%+ win SR OR 51%+ place SR) This approach has had some success and it is developing into an interesting test – I will keep going for a few more weeks and see if any of you have found it a useful addition or not….

Yarmouth

2.40 – Amthal NR / Port Paradise – UP

3.10 – Master Gunner (14,30) 9/4 2nd  | Buteo Bai (14) 4/1 UP

3.40 – Forest Lakes (14, 30) 10/1 UP | Sunbaked (14, 30) 6/1 3rd

4.10 – Himalayan Queen (14/30) 14/1 WON 16/1

5.10 – Perfect Orange (14) 14/1 UP

Remember these are just a guide as to the well being of the horses/yard, in races where others may not be going so well. Some look at the horses form/race is advised before backing any of the above – albeit sometimes trainer form like this can render recent form irrelevant as something at a big price just drops in.

***

That is all for today. Good luck with your bets.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Hi Josh / Guys

    I have the first 2 Qualifiers for Adam Mcnamara tomorrow both rides are for P J Mcbride
    He is currently 2 wins out of 2 for Mcbride and 1 out of 1 at Yarmouth for him.

    Yarmouth 2.10 Millies Kiss
    Yarmouth 4.40 Kylla Instinct

    Had a look at Mr Mcbride to see how he fares with all claiming jockeys and if this his approach when he expects to win.

    Well In the last 5 years if we take Beverley, Carlisle, Chelmsford City, Redcar, Warwick, Wolverhampton, Yarmouth & York and we look at all 5lb & 7lb claimers we would have had 42 bets with 14 wins & 22 placed
    which included 2 winners at 20/1 & 50/1 and a Betfair profit of +134.08 so definitely one to have on side..

    Hopefully a winner or two tomorrow to add to the figures…..Right I’m off to get the wheelbarrow ready to collect the winnings lol

    Good luck all

    Steve Wiseman 03/08/16 9:47 PM Reply


    • Nice stuff Steve…i’ll follow up with my barrow….mind you it needs a wash after spreading on the allotment..lol.
      Seriously many thanks….that was a nice winner today for JG…
      Cheers.

      Tony Mc. 03/08/16 10:02 PM Reply


      • Haha yes think I might need that barrow if the first one goes in almost any odds you like on Betfair, First time out 2 year old so maybe just a speculative dabble on this one….although i am keeping in mind those big price winners he has had with claimers in the past and don’t think the books would have cottoned on to this connection as yet.

        Steve Wiseman 04/08/16 9:42 AM Reply


    • Nice stats there Steve. Can you lend me a barrow I have had to sell mine

      Eyecatcher_John 04/08/16 9:05 AM Reply


      • Ah I’m sure you have plenty in the coffers John you highlighted some nice winners at Goodwood last week….Totally agree with the Pat Cosgrave angle at Wolverhampton.

        Steve Wiseman 04/08/16 9:53 AM Reply


    • Ah well the barrow is back in the shed but nethertheless a good run from Millies Kiss in 3rd touched 150.0 earlier I was on at 55 and 20 in the place market and covered that with the 3 TBP on betfair at 7.2 so picked up a profit on the race….hopefully a win from Kylla later

      Steve Wiseman 04/08/16 2:25 PM Reply


      • A nice win for Kylla Instinct on at 8.4 on Betfair and a lovely ride from young Mr Mcnamara

        Steve Wiseman 04/08/16 4:59 PM Reply


        • he was cantering, but I thought he hadn’t spotted the runner on the rail….but when he put the toe down…It shot away….but a good 2nd to watch……can’t think of it’s name lol….

          Tony Mc. 04/08/16 7:31 PM Reply


      • I even had a little new trowel to collect the loose silver…..Ah!, such is life…lol.
        Yeah!…Kyla did it. Happy days.

        Tony Mc. 04/08/16 7:34 PM Reply


  • If I was going to do a weekly blog it would have to go along the lines of ‘Class of 2007 March On!’ What with Hoof it & Take Cover, now 9yo’s taking top sprints but the 3yo filly division would have to get a mention what with Dashing Star (winning the Stewards Cup off’ve 102 & 8 12 on her 8th start compared to her grand-auntie, Lochsong 80 OR 8 0 stone 7th start as 4yo) beating the boys & her elders as did Poole Belle at Salisbury yesterday. Also yesterday, Southern Belle at Notts clocked a whopping time & could be out again over the weekend.

    So yesterday I noted that the sprint at Pont was a Bet365 4/1+ Offer race, I quite fancied Hilary J against the eventual winner, Sandra’s Secret, both 3yo fillies. The interesting thing was that 365 were clearly two points shorter than everybody else about Sandra’s Secret all day? So even the lesser fancied 3yo filly can beat her elders & the boys & certainly an interesting crop imho

    Andy Silvers 04/08/16 4:45 AM Reply


  • I didn’t realise you had gone for Great Fun or I wouldn’t have bothered with my write up of the race :). Lets hope are combined wisdom gets us the winner!!

    Carnage for me yesterday with the only saving grace being a winner for the Sir Michael Stoute/ Dansili on the all weather micro system albeit at only 7/4.

    Moving on and ever hopefu,l a few key pointers from me for you to look at and then discard given my recent performances…haha

    SANDOWN – 7:55- Great Fun – 10/1 – In the past year trainer Michael Blake is 2/5 40% +29.50 3 places 60% +35.28 with horses he has got from a new stable. He has a bit of a knack in getting them to run well on their first start for him. Trainer doesn’t have many flat runners here 0/2 in the past 5 years but the booking of Silvestre De Sousa looks interesting 1/3 in the past 5 years. Nicely handicapped on his best form for previous trainer Brian Meehan. Hopefully the change of scenary will have done the trick

    HAYDOCK – 1:50 – Tiga Tuan – 5/1 – Trainer Kevin Ryan and jockey Graham Lee have an impressive strike rate when teaming up Haydock. In the last 5 years they are 6/19 32% +58 A/E 2.23 7 places +61.85, a place record of only 37% indicates they win or ‘bomb’ out. Hopefully today its more of the former than the latter.

    LEOPARDSTOWN – 5:15 – Miss Marinsky – A qualifier from my Edward Lyman sprinters in August micro system 16/ 1 have gone each way here at the price.
    Finally, last but not least. Watch out for pat Cosgrave on favs at Wolverhampton. He seems to get the job done when the money is down.

    Pat Cosgrave
    Wolverhampton
    SP Fav or joint/co favs (crucial)

    Since 2011 he is 22/45 48% +19.72 A/E 1.29 33 places 72% with such runners

    7:05 – Chestnut Storm – Trained by Ed Dunlop 1/2 50% 2 places when combining with the jockey on favs here.

    9:20 – Cool Music – Trained by Anthony Brittain – 1/1 when combining with the jockey on favs here.

    Chestnut Storm 100/30 Bet and Cool Music 11/4 – Cheeky double 🙂

    Good luck to all

    Eyecatcher_John 04/08/16 9:02 AM Reply


    • Nice summations John….barrow’s been cleaned again for Miss Marinsky…it’s 20s now…so ew it is.
      I notice Chestnut Storm is drifting between fav and 3rd fav…..may take a watching brief til later on.

      Tony Mc. 04/08/16 11:59 AM Reply


  • An old one but still a profitable one the Jamie Spencer – Luca Cumani combo…..that is with the following criteria:

    Priced up to 4/1 SP
    Running in Class 3, 4, 5 & 6

    54 bets – 29 wins – 41 places

    Nothing spectacular with the profits +16.39 to SP but if recent trends are to go by then worth following….since 01/08/2015 to date 6 runners 6 winners +11.75 SP and they have a qualifier today

    3.10 Yarmouth Pacharana currently 3.05 on Betfair

    Good Luck

    Steve Wiseman 04/08/16 10:15 AM Reply


    • Price had gone Steve before I got to it…Good shout though….It’s these little micros that keep things chugging along.
      Cheers Steve.

      Tony Mc. 04/08/16 5:06 PM Reply


  • Keeping in mind, my systems have been below par this flat season so far…
    In the 7.55 at Sandown…CHAPLIN BAY…currently 7s…this system runs at 31%.
    Best of luck with a note of caution.

    Tony Mc. 04/08/16 11:22 AM Reply


  • addendum…..to Chaplin Bay….bad draw…. 0% have won from stall 11, but 4 pts clear of sarangoo.

    Tony Mc. 04/08/16 11:34 AM Reply


  • It may be….at last…that the Gary Moore stable are finding some form??

    Two for today so I hear…at Brighton..3.30 Whinging Willie and 5.00 Gaelic Silver.

    Good luck

    Martin Colwell 04/08/16 12:25 PM Reply


  • Lovely finish for Kylla Instinct….the 2nd wasn’t bad either….Good shout Steve.
    A couple of good wins for you to Josh….But…somehow I missed backing Lincoln Rocks. Grrr…still the barrow is creaking nicely thanks to all.

    Tony Mc. 04/08/16 5:03 PM Reply


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