FREE DAILY POST: 03/08/2016 (COMPLETE+ Late Aug Qual)

SUMMARY: TIPS in plenty of races, across Testing Zone and Stats/Angles… The 2.00 Bath / 3.20- Brighton / 4.10 Ponte / 6.20 Yarmouth / 7.50 Yarmouth

 

(tips appear in the order i researched them, so a bit all over the  place in terms of race times but I will leave it as it is)

 

TIPS

None.

 

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE

(running total 6/35, 9 places… +49.25 points)

4.10 Ponte 

Eternitys Gate – 1.5 points win – 6/1 (bet365/BV) (11/2 general) UP 7/2

Mr Orange – 1.5 points win– 7/1 (general) UP* 6/1

*oh well that didn’t go to plan from start to finish. EG couldn’t get to the front and was never really in it. Mr Orange does look best over 6f from that run. The winner is clearly getting better and looks like has improved from her last run here- I wondered whether this stiff finish may catch her out, the draw was a bit off putting (pinged it) initially. Damn. Got that one wrong. She has fairly bolted up, and was pulling a bit early also. I didn’t predict that scenario (trying to make all) and having a look at some old form should have considered it as a possibility- and have put more weight to fact she should be getting better.  Plenty to take from that race. Dandy Nicholls will get wins from Storm Trooper at some point. Royal Brave will somewhat bolt up when he doesn’t have to go wide all the way round, and has a collapsing pace in front of him.

I think Eternitys Gate may get his own way up front here from his draw and he is a scrapper. He went far too hard with 2 others LTO on a track that may not have suited, but kept on well enough. Back here, I expect more. And the trainer’s runners are starting to go ok again. The form of that race he won here a couple of starts ago has worked out well. 6s looked more than fair- an all the way win please! His win here was also impressive in the sense that he was taken on for most of the way and was ridden from quite some way out. I liked the way he kept on finding. It is possible he gets an easier lead here which would be helpful.

Mr Orange – Well, if there is a pace burn up (Duffield’s may try and make all also) then this one may pick up the pieces. He is just running well and while I think he is better over 6f he should have plenty of time to get going here. He responds well to pressure and if able to track Eternitys Gate he could be in the right place to pounce. He stays well and should give it a good go. The line may not come soon enough but I will take that chance at what looks a generous price to be. He is a hardened 3 year old who could be getting better, and he has track form.

There are a couple of other 3 year olds in here who may turn over these two – but they don’t have track form and this will be a new experience for the pair. The Duffield horse had the run of the race against the rail at Thirsk and was taken down early. She also needed every yard of that 6f and while this is a stiff 5 it may happen to quickly early on. The undulations and turns here will be a new experience. She may be good enough and worth a saver mind. That was also a small field, fillies only handicap. She has a few things to prove here. Sandra’s Secret has some questions stepping back into a race for older horses. The one run here over CD a few starts ago was ok at best and was way behind a horse called Oriental Splendour, who Eternitys Gate had beaten a couple of starts before that. The yards horses don’t go overly well here either. And she is drawn wide enough, but not impossible. Royal Brave would be more interesting if he was drawn low. The Tudhope booking catches the eye but from 13 he will need plenty of luck. He is usually held up and he could get too far behind/hit traffic up the inside/have to come wide- all reasons why he may just struggle. He finished like a train here three starts ago behind Eternitys Gate but was able to hug the rail all the way round from low. It is all about the start- Tudhope may boot him out and if in a decent position after 1 furlong or so then I will be concerned as he has the tools to go very close in this.

Some of you shrewdies like Burtonwood at an EW price and I can see why. Young/unexposed/trainer in form/ran well LTO despite rider losing irons. The last time I ‘took on the readers’ i dunked my head in a big bowl of egg and that may be the case here again. His most recent win was C6 and I wondered whether this level of C5 may be beyond him – albeit he has won an apprentice hncp at the class. His runs at Ponte and Carlisle this season suggest that he may not like a stiff finish over this trip- a bit one paced near the end on both times. However, there was juice in the ground on those runs and that may be the excuse. I left him but can see why some would nibble at double figures. He does need to step up again for me and I have gone for two with better recent winning form for me, whose prices I also thought were decent in the context of the race. The egg is prepared….

 

2.00 Bath

Catalinas Diamond – 1 point win – 10/1 (general) UP*

*well this horse will probably forever be frustrating and I don’t think I can keep tipping her at Bath until she goes in – which she will do at some point but I think I will give up now. She will always need a lot of luck, and look ‘unlucky’ as she may have done again here. I thought there may be a bit more pace but there wasn’t, which didn’t help. Odd ride- maybe she HAS to be ridden through horse but she broke well and found herself at the front – Drowne could have ridden her forward a bit to get a position but he didn’t, and naturally got stuck behind a wall of horses unable to get out when the jockey wanted. A frustrating horse. Not too much damage done though. Another for the Ron Harris team. In fine form as pointed out in post race thoughts at Salisbury. Now 4/16 last 14 days. 

Go Charlie – 1/2 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/BV/Lad/WH) NR

Well it is getting to the stage now where horses of old start to appear in my tracker (when I remember to track them!) and here are two more that I will have one more throw of the dice at.

Catalinas Diamond – she will win over this course and distance at some point and when she does hopefully she makes us a small profit. It may well be today. She has won on good to soft/good and is 4lb lower than on some of the runs we have backed her. She has a low draw again which tempers all out enthusiasm and it may do for her again (getting stuck behind a wall of horses) but it isn’t impossible from there. There is enough pace on paper also. The last run was in a C5- not up to that level. The one before that was moderate and was never really in it -albeit went well for a time. The proper soft ground may have done for her in the run before that. The one before that is the one she could have won with more luck in running under Kirby. She likes this place – 3/11,4 places over CD. Hopefully this is the 4th. Worth ‘one more chance’ at 10s.

Go Charlie- well he has yet to win on turf but was an eye catcher the time we backed the one above. He travelled into it well and struggled for a run/was asked too late. Next time out at Chepstow he was on the wrong side completely but ran ok to a point. Better than it looks on paper anyway. He was held up at Chelmsford and didn’t do anything. Possible he didn’t like the surface. He is a slow starter also drawn low and the ease underfoot is an unknown. Not a horse I want to be ‘lumping’ on, nor a race for that matter. But, he is worth 1/2 a point to find out.

 

7.50 Yarmouth

Lydia’s Place – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365) 13/2 (BV/Lad/WH) 6/1 | 11/2 (general) UP

Well this one is in the tracker also – lost among the excitement of the looking at the quality fare at Bath! – (and thanks Nick!!)

We/I backed her LTO at Muss where she ran a decent enough race after a 35 day break. It is possible she is sharper here. This is also a fillies only handicap and she is reunited with the jockey who is 3/3 on her on the grass. All race conditions look fine and it is possible she could lead them all the way here. She is well handicapped on form last year and is definitely worth one more go in these conditions for me.

 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

(running total: +15.5 points)

6.20 Yarmouth

Courtsider – 1 point win – 7/1 (PP/BetfS) 13/2 (general) UP

This one looks interesting for a few reasons. She makes here handicap debit here and the trainer is 2/9,3 places with such runners in the last two years- albeit 0/5,1 places in the last year. But, she can clearly get one ready from maiden company. The horse ran well in a newmarket maiden LTO and appears to be getting the hang of things. The trainer is 8/18,12 places with all handicap runners here in the last 5 years. They don’t seem to mess around when making the trip. She is also in form – with a geegeez green ’14’. And they have also booked William Buick. That does catch the eye. All in all a few things there to go on and 7s felt a bit generous. It is a weak enough race and there is a short priced fav- but she has been off the track for 48 days which is odd and has only run on turf once. She may handle it fine but a few questions there given the price.

3.20 – Brighton

Lunar Deity- 1 point win – 16/1 (BFred/BV) 14/1 (general)  Bugger, all that effort and now a non runner…

A bit of a punt here but this one looks very very interesting to my eyes at the prices. He caught my eye using the geegeez instant expert tab as being suited to all race conditions and being rather well handicapped. For his previous trainer he was winning C4 turf handicaps, on rain softened ground, off marks in the high 70s- his last turf win of 77. He runs off 69 here with the claim. Stuart Williams got him and appeared to focus attention on the All-Weather where he did well. On his first turf start for Williams he was OR82. On his final turf start for him, before a lucrative AW campaign he was OR74. Due to his AW exploits the next time he appeared on turf he was OR96- and racing in hot class 2s. He has also run plenty of times at tracks that don’t necessarily suit- well getting outpaces over 7f and trying to come from behind at the likes of Goodwood and Newamarket’s July course is a challenge. There is the odd good flat run for this trainer also. So the horse is well handicapped and conditions are fine, indeed he is 1/2 over course and distance. He had a break before his last run where he was too keen and faded. His AW form this year shows his ability remains and given his past turf form you can’t say he doesn’t act on it. There looks to be quite a bit of pace on paper in this race also. Maybe an EW bet would be advised but I have backed him to win in my usual foolhardy manner. He just caught the eye at a very nice price. I may be wide of the mark, but it could be that this decent pot has been the plan….

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

August Trainer

4.10 Ponte- Flowing Clarets (any odds) * UP

*apologies for late posting. I failed to save the system rules correctly, omitting ‘2016’ which meant they didn’t appear. This is the first one of the month. 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEM BETS

4.40 Ponte – Chiswick Bey (9/1<) 2nd 5/1

5.20 Yarm- The Ducking Stool (10/1<) UP

 

***

That will be all for today. Quite a busy one really. Let’s hope some of the above can run with credit!

Good Luck (we will need plenty)

p.s There are some updated Sprint notes in the Free Reports/Systems tab, or on home page, top right hand corner.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

40 Comments

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  • BURTONWOOD 4.10 ponte something was a miss LTO think hes capable of this mark conditions should suit and as placed form at ponte trainer in form thought 14/1 was big its a horse I mentioned in your weekly diary josh and you asked me to flag it up just happens to be in your tipping race good luck with your selections ive had an ew on burtonwood

    antony church 02/08/16 7:34 PM Reply


    • Hi Antony, what was amiss was his jockey lost his irons and he ran out the race to be 3rd…a great position really…i’ll be ew too.

      Tony Mc. 02/08/16 8:53 PM Reply


    • Well I can see why a nibble at those prices in fairness- I couldn’t get away from my two, and I pick plenty more losers than winners and will be cheering yours on if mine both fluff their lines! Could all be about the start- he needs to get out and get an early position- not be off the pace and held up like last couple of runs -But a different jockey on and he is decent for the claim. But can see why you like him EW.

      Josh 02/08/16 10:52 PM Reply


    • Thanks for your kind donation Antony, much appreciated.

      Josh 03/08/16 7:58 AM Reply


    • I got 14/1 on betfair…so it more or less pulled me out level…cheers Antony.

      Tony Mc. 03/08/16 5:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / Guys

    2 x Qualifiers for the Josephine Gordon angle tomorrow

    3.00pm Bath – Babyfact for Malcolm Saunders
    4.00pm Bath – Hope is High for John Berry

    John Berry she is 4 winners from 8 with 6 places, 1 out 1 at track
    Malcolm Saunders she is 5 winners from 17 with 8 places, 2 out of 5 at track.

    Good luck

    Steve Wiseman 02/08/16 7:50 PM Reply


    • Thanks for the work done Steve. Cheers.

      Tony Mc. 02/08/16 9:01 PM Reply


      • Your welcome Tony….Hopefully we see a return

        Steve Wiseman 02/08/16 9:50 PM Reply


        • Nice one Steve….nearly a good double….but a single will do…cheers again.

          Tony Mc 03/08/16 4:45 PM Reply


    • Wallop, that will do! Super.

      Josh 03/08/16 4:03 PM Reply


      • Yes thats a nice one kept out of trouble and won well was trading at 11.5 earlier i got on at 8.4 and happy with that….could have been a double on another day but the best one won lovely.

        Steve Wiseman 03/08/16 4:16 PM Reply


        • Yep, 1/2 point on after having a look at him – ran well LTO, got 7s which seemed big – has covered my sprinting losses anyway!

          Josh 03/08/16 4:23 PM Reply


  • Three that I’m backing tomorrow are, 6.50 Yarmouth Party thyme. 8.40 Kempton London citizen and 9.10 Song of paradise. All from last year’s C.f Wall system that Josh put on the blog. I have added an extra rule tho lol

    James b 03/08/16 1:14 AM Reply


    • Yep that one is still saved in my system- I should dive into it more- profit could be better and I thought it was a bit too simplistic as it is…so you know what I am going to ask next… what rule have you added? 🙂

      Josh 03/08/16 7:56 AM Reply


      • I’ve simply excluded weeks 32-34 Josh! Apart from that the rules are the same, this just cuts out the bulk of his runners. I did live test the extra rule last year so it might work again? You would have to go back to 2010 to make a profit through those weeks excluded. I’m also guilty of using the Dore system but backing all race types, Yasir went and won @9s last night so I might just stop at a winner on that one.

        James b 03/08/16 2:46 PM Reply


  • Two I like today are Pacolina at Brighton 15:20 Back down in class at the scene of her last win and Greatrex is 2/2 on her. Looks to have a plum draw where all the pace is. Other one I also like is Lydia’s Place (not sure if you’re also tipping it up Josh given one on your notes). Hornby returns to the saddle and is 3/4 on her (3/3 on flat with the other run on AW after a big break) so his familiarity and 3lb claim should hopefully be enough to push her into the winners enclosure.

    Nick Mazur 03/08/16 8:01 AM Reply


    • Lydia’s Place is 19:50 Yarmouth BTW

      Nick Mazur 03/08/16 8:08 AM Reply


    • hi nick I backed pacolita for the same reasons you outlined in your post a few n/r in the race now great chance and its 8/1 last time I looked

      antony church 03/08/16 9:18 AM Reply


    • Will take the e/w profits but always hate getting beat by the apparent stable second string!

      Nick Mazur 03/08/16 3:29 PM Reply


  • Party Thyme 6.50 Yar looks good to me, Wall/Yar/7f

    James M 03/08/16 9:48 AM Reply


  • Morning all,

    Plenty for me today

    Great minds think alike…. in regard to Catalinas Diamond 10s Go Charlie 10s and Lydia’s Place 7s… all three are in my tracker. Nothing to add to your write ups there!

    Four qualifiers from my Richard Fahey & Chris Wall August to October micro systems:

    Chris Wall – 6:50 Party Thyme Yarmouth 4s and 9:10 Son of Paradise Kempton 9s
    Richard Fahey – 2:10 Farham 6s and 4:40 Chiswick Bay 5s both Pontefract

    Richard Fahey again but this with his two year old having their first career start at Pontefract. In the past 5 years he is – 6/21 28% +46.25 10 places 48% +51.87 A/E 1.79 with his juvenile runners on debut. No a big sample size I grant you and still needs a bit of caution on the betting front but looks to be ticking away nicely. He has one today who looks well berthed in stall 1

    Pontfract – 2:40 – Pudding Chare – 6/1s

    Kempton 8:40 – London Citizen – Another separate Chris Wall one:

    A bit of a leap of faith here to go for the Chris Wall trained runner. Not the easiest to keep sound and seems to have to ways of running poor or ok. His two runs this season fall into the former category but if we go back to August of last year we see the six year old running very well to be a 1 3/4 length 3rd in a better race than this at Newmarket, now races off 2lb lower, that was Class 3 and now he drops down to Class 4 company for the first time in handicapping career. The drop in class angle is partly my way in here, as is the booking of George Baker who does very well when combining with Chris Wall in handicaps at Kempton. In the past 5 years they are 13/36 36% +35 A/E 1.68 21 places 58% +43.53 which is an excellent strike rate and return. He can ‘win or bomb’ and only he knows what he will do today, He is though overpriced on his best for at 11s

    …..and last but not least the first qualifier from my Sir Michael Stoute/Dansili on the all weather micro system. Sadly its not really a working mans price at 11/8 but I will put it up: I have the horse as 15/8 on my tissue so are old friend value seems lacking!

    Kempton 7:10 – Ballet Concerto

    Josh – by the way what was your Chris Wall micro system?

    Well good luck to everyone today. I think i will need some given the amount of bets I am having 😉

    Eyecatcher_John 03/08/16 10:25 AM Reply


    • Oh it was rather basic and needs some work = profitable mind- simply Chris Wall’s handicappers in August on Aw/Flat… 14/1 or shorter… 36/134, 70 places…+53 SP… since 2010- prob around +10-15 points a year at early prices. But, a bit too simplistic and a couple of others months do ok as well – not necessarily indicating August is a deliberate strategy. Those going off 8/1< do even better as you would expect. So, some sort of guide. It may be a decent starter set to dig further

      Josh 03/08/16 10:29 AM Reply


      • Cheers… might have a dig later if i get a chance, as I am going house viewing shortly.

        Eyecatcher_John 03/08/16 10:41 AM Reply


        • Just had a very quick look:

          Chris Wall
          August to October
          Distance 7f And 1m2f
          Class 5 & 6
          Handicaps only
          Numbers of runners 15 and less
          SP 10/1 & above

          Since 2011 – 8/25 32% +100 11 places 44%

          Sample size is a bit questionable and the there is a danger of backfitting of course. as can occur with any sort of system building.

          2015 – 1/5 20% +21 1 place
          2014 – 1/4 25%+17 2 places
          2013 -1/6 17% +4 1 place
          2012 – 3/5 60% +37 4 places
          2011 -2/5 +21 40% +21 3 places

          I haven’t looked to deep but there does seem some logic there… but as i said the sample size is small and the progression may have ended. Anyway have put it out there and I will post any qualifiers as they occur.

          Ant thoughts?

          Eyecatcher_John 03/08/16 11:02 AM Reply


  • Any reason Flowing Clarets (4:10 Pon) isn’t a bet for the August trainer micro system?

    Trained by Fahey, 3yo+ turf handicap, 5f, 3 runs in the last 90 days. Seems like a qualifier to me.

    Mike 03/08/16 10:52 AM Reply


    • Mike – Looks like it should be

      Eyecatcher_John 03/08/16 11:24 AM Reply


    • Yep it should be – I failed to save the system correctly- omitted 2016 so qualifiers were not appearing. First one of the month. Thanks for spotting. All present and correct now I think! Not the first time I have done that. Cheers

      Josh 03/08/16 11:25 AM Reply


      • No problem. Sod’s law it’ll lose now anyway. 😉

        Mike 03/08/16 11:31 AM Reply


        • Well I hope he does, given I am on two others in race! struggled to make a case for him on paper really but still low mileage. Ground an unknown.

          Josh 03/08/16 11:41 AM Reply


          • My copy of the Fahey System rules states NOT 3-y-o + handicaps and this is a 3-y-o + handicap.

            Please advise.

            Peter Gee 03/08/16 1:24 PM Reply


            • Sorry Peter- been some confusion on my use of various terms and the word ‘only’… handicaps wise there are: 2yo ‘Only’; 3 yo ‘Only’ ; 3yo+ ; 4yo+ (and there are some veteran ones also now, 6yo+)… For Fahey we are excluding 3 yo Only – so, we are NOT betting in handicaps just open to 3 year olds. Handicap Races for 3 year olds and older (3yo+) are fine, along with nursery handicaps (2yo only)

              Is that clearer? If not I will try again! Apologies for confusion.

              Josh 03/08/16 1:29 PM Reply


    • System excludes 3-y-o+ handicaps and this is just that.

      Peter Gee 03/08/16 1:27 PM Reply


      • System excludes 3yo ONLY handicaps, NOT 3yo+ handicaps. This is a 3yo+ handicap, and qualifies on that front.

        Josh 03/08/16 3:04 PM Reply


  • Pont 4.10 is a nightmare…..there is a possible 4 selections for our rules.
    I have them in running order on my sliding scale. Flickas Boy 100%+….then in running order of diminishing %..Eternity’s gate 100%… Mr Orange 99%…Burtonwood (98.3&…..Flowing Clarets is way down in 11th..on 70.7%.
    But it being a handicap, they start to equalise and come under draw influence which can alter the chances. But a little slipper is looking a Ruth Carr’s FLASH CITY…on 92.2%…it leads with 3 class wins and 11 places..i know it’s 8yo now, but it’s out in front of all the others and is currently 7s…bigger last night.
    So it’s a very difficult race Josh…Best of luck to us all. lol

    Tony Mc. 03/08/16 12:18 PM Reply


    • good luck however you are playing Tony… I have long given up saying these are ‘hard/difficult’- which they are, but finding two winners that day at Ascot and Donny renders that a pointless excuse for me. – that is different from a discussion on value though- Draw and running style put me off Flash City – has ran here a few times and always struggles to get up – goes close but invariably leaves it too late- may look like the winner in final furlong but the line will just come in time for whoever is in front. Maybe. That was enough to put me off a single figure price. Ficka’s Boy not without hope but he can get behind here and I struggled to see why he should overturn form with Eternitys Gate. A decent contest, that may leave much bewildered pondering come the finish! GL

      Josh 03/08/16 1:02 PM Reply


      • O I’m playing your choices with one of my own… Flash City was an observation, but you make a good point….£ class wins…11 places speaks for itself…can’t get its nose in front enough. Yet Ruth Carr is an astute trainer…..

        Tony Mc. 03/08/16 2:23 PM Reply


  • Another piece of bad jockeyship…S Drowne let himself be bullied out very early and never recovered. I pointed mentioned the other day R Harris was on a winning streak…verdampt!…

    Tony Mc. 03/08/16 2:06 PM Reply


    • Tony…. not seen the race yet but I have to say Steve Drowne is pretty much gone at the game for me… Not been the same jockey since had his fainting problem a couple of years back..Interesting that hes only had one ride for Roger Charlton since 2013 – Just looked at his record this year 11/182 6% A/E 0.64 The A/E tells a tale!

      Eyecatcher_John 03/08/16 2:54 PM Reply


      • Your spot on John….but you know, I never had those facts you mention. I think I may have had a second thought…lol
        Cheers John, I know now.

        Tony Mc. 03/08/16 4:50 PM Reply


    • He got the winner of the 14:30 as well!

      Nick Mazur 03/08/16 3:32 PM Reply


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