Free Daily Post: 21/07/16 (COMPLETE)

 

I have had a bloody nightmare with my BT internet this morning as they enter day 2 of their troubles. I have been unable to get onto the blog for an hour now. (10.30 as I write) Very annoying. There are the two tips below and one in the Stats/Angles section.That is all for today. 

I will look ahead to Saturday and see if there is a trends/stats handicap – if there is i will get some trends/stats up later today. I am also starting ork on some trainer notes for Goodwood and Galway. These would usually be restricted to Donations Club members (and will be in future) but as I am re-launching the blog early next month I thought I would just give these all away for free- a snippet of some of the benefits of joining the new ‘members club’. 

 

TIPS

1.50 Worcester

Firm Order – 1 point win – 10/1 (general) PU 9/2*

*well that was rather deflating – unsure if a problem or what but he stopped very quickly having been well backed into 9/2. Possibly the ground too lively or he did himself damage at a fence, Im unsure. But then, i don’t know why connections would run him on it if they thought it was that unsuitable. Maybe he just isn’t much good anymore. Now two PUs next to his name. He travelled well for the first half of that race. The only positive was beating the market by so much but that doesn’t lift the mood that much after a run like that. At least I was right to be cautious. The ‘could be anything’ horse trotted up and was never challenged really – thankfully not all 11/4 shots with similar profiles dot up otherwise I would be rather poorer. Let’s hope the good Dr can provide us with a winner… 

Well this is a shocker of a race for me and the two at the top of the market have plenty to prove at the prices for me, but more on those in a moment. 

Firm Order is clearly not getting any younger but this is such a weak race that were he to retain any ability, he must go close in this. I was close to ‘going big’ on this one, a possible 2 pointer, maybe 3 – but having thought about it clearly there are a few negatives – his age, a slight niggle as to the ground and whether he retains enough ability. So, maybe more than 1 point would have been foolhardy. But, sometimes you get a feeling in these races, and I think I have that with this one – that feeling doesn’t always pan out as they trail in last, but I think he has an outstanding chance here and I am pleased to see some money for him as I write. 

9 runs ago he was winning a C3 chase at Sandown off 127 (minus 7lb claim). Today he runs off 105. Yes a sign of some regression and he clearly wont reach those heights again, but he won’t need to here. He has ran at the track twice, placing over Course and Distance before and he does have winning form on a firm surface- not his chase form mind, and maybe he would like a bit of cut- but at 10s I was happy to chance it. 3 starts ago he ran credibly in a 0-130 at Sandown and the winner there went on to progress further, turning into a smart chaser who could win a decent race this winter I suspect. (Canas Taoi) I tipped him at Donny where he seemed to be up for it, racing with zest – maybe too much as he un-shipped quite early surrounded by horses – left to jump the fence himself which I never like – I much prefer the Paddy Brennan style of booting them into a fence. Next time at Kempton he was pulled up and ran no sort of race. Maybe that track, and that pace that day, was just too much for his advancing years. He has a decent record fresh – 2/7 121-365 days off, 1/4 in chases. If they want him fit here, he will be. He stays a bit further and while his winning form is left  right handed, he has placed a couple of times this way round and his relative class should see him through. This just looks a great opportunity for this old warrior and he must be showing enough at home to keep him going. It is ‘only’ his 24th chase as well. 

In part I like his chances because of how abject I view the opposition. The top two can clearly win for decent trainers who know how to train chasers. They are unexposed but given what they have done to date I find their prices to be awfully skinny. The Jonjo horse (easier to write that than his name!) is 0/7,0 places in his life, hasnt shown much to date and has stamina to prove. He has a lot to prove. The trainer is also cold enough – 1/44 in last 30 days, 1/23 last 14 days- performing 70% below market expectations – indicating that a few shorties have been beaten, or more fancied ones anyway. He is still in the ‘could be anything’ category and may scoot up- but you wont ever find me taking 11/4 about one with his profile. He may well come on for that last run and I will be interested to see how he goes. He looks like just the sort of fav you have to take on. Likewise Abigail Lynch for team Lee – she wasn’t trained by a mug in NTD and he struggled to recapture her form. Maybe the rolling hills, forests and lakes will spark this one into life, but that change of scenery needs to. This is the second start for the yard and she has stamina to prove – first try at a trip like this, and her best form to date has been in soft. Now, she may improve for the trip but there are enough questions. At 8/1 maybe, but 9/2 felt just ok, nothing more. She has liked to clout a fence in her chasing career to date also, now 0/5, 0 places. But, this team can work wonders so a win would not be a shock, but I cant have her at that price. 

I was really struggling to make a case for the rest – they really are a moderate bunch in a moderate race – strange things can happen in these summer chases, and maybe one of them will find something from somewhere. Many have questions over recent form, their class and their ability to truly see this trip out. I suppose of those doing something different – Bennys Girl has her first start for the trainer, but comes here after the break. She has a different profile having seemingly improved in the point to point world, and is interesting enough. Replacement Plan has his first chase for this trainer but also has a stamina question I think. 

So, all in all, for me it is whether Firm Order can recapture any of his old form. If he repeats that 3rd at Sandown a few starts ago he should take a hello of a lot of stopping in this. Time will tell. At the prices he was the one who stood out. 

 

2.20 Worcester

Trafficker – 1 point win – 10/1 (BV/WH/BB)  9/1 (general) PU 7/1

Well I should have stayed in bed a bit longer I think. Awful. Never at the races and another that was nibbled at. I got the two at the top beat at least this time. And I would rather not think about Kilcascan and how close I came to putting him up EW. This is a game of the mind and mine bottled it I think- if we were on the crest of the Feb/Jan wave who knows. But I didn’t tip him so that is that. I hope some of you may have read the write up and had a nibble. 

This is a stronger race than the first one for me given the number with ‘upside potential’ in here. But, ultimately, I have gone for the proven one in conditions, in a race where others all have some sort of question now. This one knows how to win and has won a couple of class 4 chases (this is a weak C4 mind,so something who may seem not to have the class may well take it), stays this trip well and gets a bit further and comes from a trainer in red hot form, and a trainer/jockey combo who do well when teaming up. The question is over his recent form but having had some time off it is possible that he needed his last two runs. He ran better until 4 out over 26f the last day and that was a decent little contest. There is also plenty of pace on paper in this and I think it could be a test. If you have stamina questions you will be found wanting I think. He is now back just below his last winning mark and a repeat of that Bangor win sees him go close in this for me. He is also unexposed still, this only his 8th chase start. At 10s he was the one that caught my eye. 

Queens Bay may clearly win this, as the market suggests. She has been prolific in PtPs and has her first start for this trainer. Despite being 10 she hasn’t had many rules races and is now 0/6, 1 place in chases under rules. She has stayed 24f in points, but I have a slight question over stamina in a race like this. Unproven/unknown perhaps. But, she has a different profile and I would rather take 9/4 about this one, than 11/4 about Jonjos in the first race I think. (We know what will happen now!!) But, 9/4 is still short given the questions she has. 

The Backup Plan has some stamina questions for me, evident again LTO when weakening after the last. His wins over 19f. Shes Late has even more major questions on that front, being flat bred. He doesn’t look like the next The Young Master and has enough to prove for me. Wiffy Chatsby needs more, keeps hitting the bar in C5 chases, and Bowen may be going off the boil again. Only a maybe but 0/11 in the last two weeks. Again, the price didn’t jump out at me. Unexposed but needs more here. 

Dawnieriver/Mrs Robbin/Kilcascan tie in together on their last run in a moderate enough C5 chase here over CD LTO. The first two have yet to win a chase from a few goes but still have time on their side. Bar the winner that day who is decent enough for a summer jumper, the rest looked pretty moderate to me. Dawnieriver- well the headgear is removed which is odd given how well she ran LTO – a repeat of that may see her in the mix. Mrs Robbin emptied out a bit suggesting stamina may be a question. But the trainer is in great form and she could just be coming to herself. I can see why money would come and she is a more interesting one. In the end I have gone for the one with proven winning chase form in the race conditions. Sometimes it is just that simple, hopefully that’s the case today. Kilcascan was second in this race last year but has yet to win at C4 level and this looks stronger. I woudln’t be surprised if he placed- but I would be slightly if he won – given that there are so many younger horses in here who could have more to come. And some older ones too who could still be open to improvement of sorts. But he is one of the few proven in all conditions, he stays well and is a solid jumper. That could see him go close enough and is the most interesting of the bigger prices. 

I cant have the other three. 

Again a race where the top two have enough questions for me to want to take them on at the prices. I will be doing well to get all four beat across the two races but hopefully one of these can go in. There is a lot of pace in here – 5 or 6 horses who have led and/or are pace pushers. Trafficker should be able to track it, let them get on with it, and pick up the pieces. Hopefully STD can get him into a rhythm.  

Right, that’s it for tips today. 

 

**

A nice winner for the Test section. And if you haven’t read the comments on ‘yesterday’s’ post (20th) do have a flick through. Some quality stuff on speed ratings and systems. 

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

7.25 Donc

Roll On Rory – 11/2 (bet365) 5/1 – 9/2 (general) 2nd 11/4 

It is rare for me to dabble in a 3yo only handicap and maybe I will be regretting it come 7.30 but this one jumps off the page to my eyes at the prices – I think he should be favourite based on his form to date. He comes here going for the hat-trick, is clearly progressing and in the form of his life. He is the only class winner in the field and not many in here, bar the fav who makes handicap debut, are doing anything differently really – most I suppose are just hoping for progression with experience. The speed rating slaps you in the face also – much much higher than many in here and he is also some way clear of the rest on the HRB ratings. He is versatile ground wise, has placed at the track and just ticks many boxes. He also looks tough and like he wants to win, based on that last run anyway. The handicapper may not have got to him yet. Trainer and jockey are now 2/5,3 places in handicaps. Everything looks set for a bold run here and while shorter than normal for this section, 9/2 does feel rather big. I wouldn’t have been surprised if he was put in at 5/2. There is also loads of pace in here – he can lead but he can also track the pace if they go too quickly. We should get a run for our money from this one.

The fav could be anything, including not good enough. That maiden was weak – 0/8,0 places so far from those to have run since. Maybe he will have loads in hand and Haggas is firing them in again. But, he is there to be taken on at that price. Of course given the type of race this is one of the others may find improvement, but they don’t look a great bunch to date.

 

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

none. 

 

TTP: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS 

3.15 Yarmouth – Dakota City (10/1<) 

6.35 Newb- Rajar (6/1<) DNQ – WON 15/2 (well Hannon had an awful record here with bigger priced ones before this season, but substantial money doesnt seem as important this season. That micro may need some work after this season)

7.10 Newb – Not Touch DNQ UP (6/1< Hannon has had two big priced winners go in this season, under the rules, for note) 

8.10 Newb – Bay of St Malo (6/1<) 

 

***

SPRINT HANDICAP TESTING ZONE 

None today. 

 

***

TRAINERS IN FORM 

None today, I have run out of time. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Although not in the best of form I am having a bet on Michael Scudamores dawnieriver in the 2.20 worcster,a staying on 2nd last time out at the course should see him go close at 15/2

    gerry 20/07/16 9:48 PM Reply


    • yep has a chance Gerry for sure in what is a weak C4 – a repeat of that run may be good enough- i found it odd that they remove the headgear here and to date she hasn’t shown an appetite for winning – 0/14 in career now- in general I am never confident about that type.If she can build on that run you should get a run for your money at least and if mine bombs, hopefully she can win for you! 🙂

      Josh Wright 21/07/16 8:10 AM Reply


  • I did back trafficker too,backed him last time out and he probably needed the run after nearly a year off,ran well for while and faded,should do better today,hopefully one will win,think Whiffy Chatbsy might have missed the boat and trainer bit below par too

    gerry 21/07/16 9:10 AM Reply


  • I also like the look of Roll on Rory. There are quite a few I like today although most of them are now down to a price that are probably not worth backing. Thought I would mention a couple who are which are still good value. I thought Beggars Wishes was interesting in the 17:00 at Worcester. During his last maiden run he beat several horses rated considerably higher. Made his handicap debut and I think he didn’t quite stay the 3m2f. Form of that race has been franked this week with the 4th winning by 14 lengths. Bowen is 2/6, 4 places over handicap hurdles here in the past 2 years. Now obviously the form is a slight concern but considering he has had winners in the past 30 days I willing to excuse it at the price. The other factor here is he appears to be the only out and out front runner here at a track which suits prominent runners. Favourite who Josh tipped LTO should win but at 7/4 in a 18 runner race he has to be taken on.

    The other one I want to have a bet on is Bedrock in the 19:10 Newbury. Trainer rates the horse very highly and he is expected to win some black type this season. He has solid record at the track and is hugely successful when combining with SDS. Looks like a very good e/w bet at the prices.

    Nick Mazur 21/07/16 9:58 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Nick- yep having had a quick glance Beggars Wishes does seem rather big at 20s – I see they change headgear again and I wonder whether that indicates that he is just a weak finisher / gets to a point where he throws in the towel. Agree about the pace, dropping in trip aspects – if he has the pace to lead over this shorter trip and can dictate, he could get plenty in trouble. Fav is short enough – he could hack up again but that was a weak race LTO, as this is I suppose. Good luck. I will be on +20 points come 5 so may have a dabble!! 🙂

      Josh Wright 21/07/16 10:33 AM Reply


  • Morning all

    On Firm Order :). Too well handicapped To ignore! I remember the day a Doncaster when he fell Paul Webber said on ATR that he felt the horse still retained ability. Day looks the day to catch him as he has won twice after absence of 121 days +

    My other bet on the day is Fang 4:55 at Yarmouth. I am happy to take on the Haggas favourite with Fang. as this race wouldn’t be one I would like to take short price about him despite the trainers record here and the first time headgear.

    Won from the front that day and it looks like he could get another easy lead out in front today If Jamie Spencer can get him settled out in front he will be hard to peg back from the front. Has now moved to William Jarvis who 3/14 21% + 21 6 places 43% with horses having their first start since a stable switch in the past 5 years and shows he is capable of getting a bit more out of such horses on their first start for him. Trainer is also 1/5 2 places in the past 14 days.

    Eyecacher 21/07/16 9:59 AM Reply


    • Morning John, yep I backed Firm Order that day and he made a scrappy jump which he still has in his locker. Hopefully Richie may know more about him now after two rides. That fall was early that day but he looked like, to my eyes at least, that he was going to go close, given his position and how he was travelling. That may have been my pocket talking though. Either way, it looks like both tips are going to half in price so that is the first job done! The value eyes still working, just.

      That Yarmouth race looks a hot little contest – that fav was the one that Roll On Rory beat at Chester – so if he hacks up that would be a good sign for that one at least. The second fav was an eye-catcher at Ponte over 6f, looking as if he needed 7f. Interested to see how he goes here. I thought they may be plotting him for something but clearly not if he bolts up in this. Good luck.

      Josh Wright 21/07/16 10:37 AM Reply


      • Good stuff John, a decent winner there!

        Josh Wright 21/07/16 4:10 PM Reply


        • Cheers Josh…. Is been a tough week on the whole

          Eyecacher 21/07/16 4:35 PM Reply


          • My tough period (tipping wise) has sadly extended beyond weeks!! 🙂 Great stats etc as well, do enjoy a good well reasoned selection.

            Josh Wright 21/07/16 5:51 PM Reply


  • Hi Everyone

    Bit late in the day but 2.00pm Sandown Darkroom Angel could be of interest…..Clive Cox & Adam Kirby at Sandown in 5f class 5 2year olds have a record of 3 wins from 6 with 4 places…..good draw 3 and trainer had winners yesterday good luck

    Steve

    Steve 21/07/16 12:59 PM Reply


    • Hi josh. Wee each way fiver on kilcascan at 20/1 was on it immediately I read Ur write up. Turning for home was hoping for a place. Then on the run in was getting excited and the rest is relief.☺☺☺

      daniel 21/07/16 2:02 PM Reply


      • Ah well I’m glad to hear it- at least the write ups are useful for something – why I didnt take that final step I have no idea, well confidence maybe, and that is a couple of times I have done that in recent weeks. I have predicted that may be how it played out and didn’t follow it through. Bangs head on table again.

        Josh Wright 21/07/16 2:21 PM Reply


  • i hate to be the post-race klaxon-sounder, but wasn’t Definite Future in the 2.55 and Kerry Lee chase system qualifier?

    Ali 21/07/16 2:50 PM Reply


    • It didn’t come up as a qualifier – having looked that will be down to the going , which in HRB is down as Good. Runners on Goood/Good to Soft are to be avoided, systematically. However, not on Good to Firm – which is now the official going description – changed after the second race. That’s how it goes with that kind of approach. One of those annoying ones. I’m not enjoying today!

      Josh Wright 21/07/16 3:06 PM Reply


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